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Fantasy Baseball Out% Standouts from Week 5

Taylor Tarter presents the fantasy baseball week 5 Out% update

Taylor Tarter
Fantasy 5/3/2026

Below, you will find our latest Out% update. The data has been accumulated over the course of the season and is updated as of Friday, 5/1.

Here are a few basics relating to Out Rate:

  • Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out
  • Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average below .250, plus strikeouts
  • Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or higher

You can use Out% to help you make tough decisions about your pitching staff, including whom to drop or add, and whom to trade for or away. Out% is also a reasonably effective predictive tool, considering its modest “stickyness.” So, pitchers with multiple high Out% pitches will tend to do better in terms of ERA, especially pitchers with high fastball Out Rates.

For a little more info on the basics of Out rate, read this, and for some more specifics on good and lucky outs, read this. And to view our Out% Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.

League Average Out Rates

Below are the league average out rates for each pitch type as of Friday, 5/1. This is how we measure a pitcher’s out rate performance.

  • Fastball – 16.3%
  • Cutter – 15.3%
  • Sinker – 17.1%
  • Splitter – 20.4%
  • Slider – 17.7%
  • Sweeper – 17.8%
  • Curveball – 16.8%
  • Changeup – 19%

A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown), including

Fastball Out% Highlight

It is a small sample so far, but Payton Tolle has one of the best fastballs in the league at inducing outs. It has a 22.9% Out Rate, all of which have been Good Outs, meaning that he has earned them.

Tolle has thrown his fastball 83 times so far, and it has earned 10 strikeouts. It has generated a .095 batting average against, while inducing a 32% whiff rate, and a 35% putaway rate. He has been successful with his fastball due to a number of factors.

First, Tolle’s fastball features above-average velocity and elite extension, making it feel faster than it already is. Beyond that, his fastball breaks more than average. His overall pitch quality is slightly below league average, but that is mostly due to poor location. Its velo, extension, and movement all suggest this is a high-quality pitch. Out% also agrees.

Here he is striking out the side, where the first and last pitches are fastballs:

Tolle is a legitimate target in fantasy baseball and has a ton of upside in both fantasy and real-life baseball. If he can locate his fastball while also adding some high-quality secondaries, he will be a huge asset for any team looking to win.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Target

 

José Soriano has been awesome this season. Of course, the 0.84 ERA will not last, but he has been dominant across seven starts, allowing just four earned runs. Three of those runs came in one game, against the White Sox, and aside from that, he has been lights out.

After leading baseball in groundball rate in 2025, Soriano is sitting sixth among qualified starters this season, with a 55% GB rate. His sinker, slider, and splitter all have groundball rates over 66%, major keys to his success at inducing grounders. This is also where a ton of his outs come from. Soriano has earned those outs by generating batted balls with weak contact to his fielders, but also by generating strikeouts. He has improved his strikeout rate to 30% this year – ninth best among qualified starters.

With an increase in K% and maintaining a high GB%, Soriano’s pitches are mostly above average in Out%, including his splitter, curveball, and sinker. His fastball grades below average, and he has not thrown his slider enough to qualify. His best pitch by Out Rate is his splitter, with a 26% Out Rate and a 23% Good Out Rate, meaning nearly all of his outs on this pitch have been earned. Take a look at his pitch quality on this pitch, and you’ll see why it has worked so well:

This is a high velocity splitter, with a ton of arm side break and near elite extension. That has turned into a .069 BAA, a 48% whiff rate, and a 28% putaway rate. Soriano’s splitter has a 43% K rate and an incredible 81% GB rate. Soriano’s curveball is arguably even better:

Again, this is a high velocity pitch with elite extension. This gets some obscene vertical movement and a good deal of glove-side break. Soriano has located this pitch extremely well, which has helped grade it as a quality pitch according to PLV. It is his second most used pitch and has generated a .167 BAA, a 48% whiff rate, a 31% putaway rate, a 47% GB rate, and a 52% GB rate. All of this has led to a 17% Out Rate and a 15% Good Out Rate. Take a look at this beauty in action:

If you can trade for Soriano in your league, he will be worth it. He has multiple high-quality out pitches, and the success looks like it should continue.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid

 

Kyle Bradish is still widely rostered in fantasy baseball leagues, but this could be a mistake for fantasy owners. Bradish has allowed earned runs in all seven of his starts this season. He has given up two earned runs in three of those outings, and three or more runs in three games.

Bradish has had a tough time inducing outs. His best out pitch this season has been his sinker, the only pitch he tosses that has an above-average Out Rate at 19.5%. His fastball, curveball, and slider all grade below average in Out%.

One concern for Bradish is that his sinker may be overperforming, considering the low pitch quality, according to its PLV:

Bradish’s sinker features below-average location and extension, driving the pitch quality down. This could be a reason why it has not generated many swings and misses, with just an 11% whiff rate. With below-average pitch quality and not many strikeouts, it is likely that most of his outs on this pitch are due to grounders. It features a 58% GB rate, and Bradish owns a modest 71% LOB rate. But one cannot live on grounders alone.

If Bradish had a better secondary or a fastball that he could rely on consistently for outs, perhaps we would not have to worry so much about the sinker overperforming. But that is not the case. His fastball has performed particularly poorly, with just a 9% Out Rate and a 6% Good Out Rate.

Bradish has been tossing his slider and curveball a bit more recently, and they have been performing better. That has not turned into quality starts for Bradish, though. Here is a recent player card from his start against Boston:

Bradish’s sinker quality was the worst of his arsenal, with his fastball as a close second, hinting that his sinker’s Out% should not be trusted. On the flip side, his slider probably could end up performing better in Out%, considering the high usage and pitch quality. Still, he has not figured out how to get outs with it consistently yet, and until then, he should be dropped.

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy/Add

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell/Drop

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Taylor Tarter

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Taylor is an FSWA finalist, and a fantasy baseball champ that has been playing for well over a decade. Taylor is co-creator of Out%, a stat that measures how good pitches are at getting outs. You can find him @TaylorTarter on Twitter.

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