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Out% for Fantasy Baseball Week 19

Taylor Tarter breaks down the Out% leaderboard for Week 19

Taylor Tarter
Fantasy 7/29/2024

We are back with your weekly Out% after a two week vacation (sorry!). Unsurprisingly, Sonny Gray’s sweeper continues to dominate as the best out pitch in baseball. It has a 33.3% Out Rate, which is 14.8% higher than league average, and 4.2% higher than the next best overall Out Rate on any pitch.

The other pitches in the top 10 of Out% include sweepers from Mitch Keller and Bryan Hudson. Derek Law’s slider, Ryan Feltner’s curveball, Pedro Avila’s changeup, and splitters from Mark Leiter Jr., Jhoan Duran, Bryce Miller, and Justin Martinez also land in the top-10 overall.

Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.

Average Out%

Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.

Fastball (FF) – 16.5%

Cutter (FC) – 16.5%

Sinker (SI) – 17.9%

Splitter (FS) – 21.1%

Slider (SL) – 18.3%

Curveball (CU) – 17.4%

Sweeper (ST) – 18.5%

Changeup (CH) – 19.6%

Fastball Out% Leaders

As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.

Of the 14 pitchers that rank among the top fastballs in Out%, only Jalen Beeks and Frankie Montas have an ERA worse than league average. Most of the other pitchers have at least one other pitch that ranks above league average in Out%, a major reason why they are able to manage such sterling ERAs.

Fastball Out% Leaders (16.5% League Average)

Cole Ragans possesses one of the best fastballs in the league according to a number of metrics, not just Out%, and those metrics have led to it being one of the best fastballs at getting batters out. Among pitchers who have thrown a fastball in at least 200 plate appearances, only Luis Gil, Garrett Crochet, and Joe Ryan can boast numbers higher than Rangans’ .205 batting average against, 23% whiff rate, 25% strikeout rate, and 22% putaway rate. He leans on its horizontal movement to induce whiffs and outs. Among pitchers who have thrown a fastball at least 750 times, nobody has more break versus league average. He also gets a ton of induced vertical break and arm side break, while tossing it with above league average velocity. Here he is tossing a couple and getting some swings and misses:

Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.

Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders

Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.

Cutter Out% Leaders (16.5% League Average)

Sinker Out% Leaders (17.9% League Average)

Splitter Out% Leaders (21.1% League Average)

Hunter Brown had a rough start to the season, but has turned things around in recent weeks. One reason why he has improved so much is thanks to a ridiculous cutter. Brown’s cutter has a .234 BAA, a 20% whiff rate, and an 18% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a cutter at least 300 times, Brown has the ninth most horizontal inches of movement versus league average. Brown’s best asset on his cutter, though, is location. His plvLoc+ is 105, which is above league average, and his 104 Location+ is tied for fourth best in the league. Here is a great view of it from home plate where you can see how it breaks:

Paul Skenes appears to be the real deal. He boasts a 1.93 ERA, an 11.6 K/9 rate, and a 50% groundball rate. Those would rank first, second, and ninth in the league if he qualified. One reason for his success is maybe the best sinker in the league. Some have dubbed it a splinker because its horizontal movement looks closer to a splitter than a typical sinker as you can see here:

Skenes’ sinker has the highest run value, according to Statcast, among pitchers who have thrown one in at least 50 PAs. According to that parameter its .156 BAA ranks first, its 29% whiff rate ranks third, and its 30% putaway rate ranks fourth. All of this has resulted in a Quality Pitch grade on the pitch, and is a major factor in why he likely will win Rookie of the Year.

Jhoan Duran also tosses more of a splinker hybrid like Skenes, rather than a true splitter. He throws it an average of 97 MPH, which is faster than any others who have thrown a splitter at least 100 times. He pairs it with a 100 MPH fastball and a wipeout curveball, so batters are always on their toes. Duran’s splitter does not induce swings and misses or strikeouts, but it has a -21 degree launch angle, which certainly has factored into his 60% GB rate. Elite velocity and location help it grade as a Quality Pitch according to our PLV data.

For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.

Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders

Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.

Slider Out% Leaders (18.3% League Average)

Curveball Out% Leaders (17.4% League Average)

Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.5% League Average)

Justin Steele had one of the best sliders in the league last season, and it has arguably become even better this season. It has a .161 BAA, a 32% strikeout rate, a 28% whiff rate, and a 23% putaway rate. Only Dylan Cease and Chris Sale can claim better numbers in all four categories among pitchers who have thrown a slider in at least 100 PAs. Among pitchers who have thrown a slider at least 150 times, Steele’s horizontal inches of movement versus league average ranks fifth highest. That movement makes it incredibly difficult for batters to hit, as does his deception when his fastball is working. Take a look:

Spencer Arrighetti may not have the ERA to show for it, but he has one of the best pitches in the league in his curveball. It has a .167 BAA, a 40% K rate, a 46% whiff rate, and a 32% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a curveball in at least 50 PAs, only Ben Brown has better numbers in each category. He gets elite extension, which helps make up for below average movement, velocity, and location when compared to league average. Still, it is a tight curveball and batters seem to have a hard time picking it up. Just check this out:

Joe Ryan’s sweeper ranks as the 11th best according to our PLV leaderboard, and grades as a Quality Pitch. It possesses a .218 BAA, a 32% whiff rate, and a 21% putaway rate. While it does not possess any striking metrics, Ryan has still found success with it. Ryan has been successful largely in part to his ability to fool batters thanks to a low arm angle and excellent location. That is no different with his sweeper as you can see here:

Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.

Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.6% League Average

Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:

Changeup Out% Leaders (19.6% League Average)

Chris Sale may be more known for his slider, but his changeup is his best out pitch this season. While his slider gets outs mostly by strikeout, Sale’s changeup has far lower whiff, strikeout, and putaway rates and still gets batters out. While we do not have individual pitch out rates divided into the various types of outs, clearly Sale’s changeup outs come thanks to contact. He also locates it extremely well, gets above league average arm side break, plus throws it hard, which has all lead to it becoming a top out pitch in baseball. Here he is talking about his changeup, and what he has done to improve it this year:

Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:

Pitchers to Target Based on Out%

Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches.

  1. Logan Gilbert
  2. George Kirby
  3. Tarik Skubal
  4. Seth Lugo
  5. Ranger Suárez
  6. Joe Ryan
  7. Bailey Ober
  8. Chris Sale
  9. Kutter Crawford
  10. Spencer Arrighetti

Taylor Tarter

Taylor is a fantasy baseball champion that has been playing for over a decade. Tune into his podcast, Fastball Fantasy Baseball, every Wednesday for in depth analysis making sabermetrics friendly to the everyday fantasy player.

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