Sonny Gray’s sweeper remains the best out pitch in baseball with a 32.4% Out Rate – that is 13.7% above league average for sweepers and 4.1% better than the next overall out pitch.
The other pitches in the top 10 of Out% include a sweeper from Mitch Keller and a curveball from Mitch Spence. The top-10 also features splitters from Justin Martinez and Bryce Miller. Changeups from Jason Adam, Merrill Kelly, and Raisel Iglesias, along with sliders from Yariel Rodriguez and Derek Law also land in the top-10 overall.
Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.
Average Out%
Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.
Fastball (FF) – 16.4%
Cutter (FC) – 16.5%
Sinker (SI) – 17.7%
Splitter (FS) – 20.5%
Slider (SL) – 18.2%
Curveball (CU) – 16.8%
Sweeper (ST) – 18.7%
Changeup (CH) – 19.4%
Fastball Out% Leaders
As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.
Of the top 13 in fastball Out%, all but Bailey Falter, Frankie Montas, and Ryan Feltner possess an ERA better than league average.
Fastball Out% Leaders (16.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Bowden Francis | 21.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi, Tobias Myers | 21.2% |
| Cody Bradford | 20.6% |
| Bailey Falter, Frankie Montas | 20.4% |
| Robert Suarez | 20% |
| George Kirby | 19.7% |
| Logan Gilbert | 19.6% |
| Jalen Beeks | 19.4% |
| Shota Imanaga, Cade Smith | 19.2% |
| Ryan Feltner | 19.1% |
Bowden Francis has a truly impressive fastball. While he does not induce many whiffs or strikeouts with it, batters have not been able to do much with it. Among pitchers who have thrown a fastball in at least 200 plate appearances, Francis’ .175 batting average against ranks first. He gets 10% more rise on his fastball than league average, and has an above average plvLoc+ on it as well. Being able to locate it well is a key for Francis, since his fastball’s velocity is a bit below league average. Francis also has a splitter that ranks above league average in Out%, that also has led to some great success recently.
Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.
- Brady Singer
- Kyle Hendricks
- Aroldis Chapman
- Kenta Maeda
- Yariel Rodriguez
Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders
Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.
Cutter Out% Leaders (16.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 20.7% |
| Kutter Crawford | 20.1% |
| Zach Eflin | 20% |
| Corbin Burnes | 19.7% |
| Nestor Cortes | 19.6% |
| Nick Martinez | 19.2% |
| Dean Kremer | 19% |
| Kenley Jansen | 18.8% |
| Jameson Taillon, Bailey Ober | 18.7% |
| Garrett Crochet | 18.3% |
Kutter Crawford’s “kutter” has a PLV grade just below the threshold for a Quality Pitch. It has a .207 BAA, a 26% whiff rate, and a 21% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a cutter in at least 100 PAs, only David Robertson and Taj Bradley have better numbers in all three categories. Among pitchers who have thrown a cutter at least 500 times, Crawford is one of three who rank top-10 in both horizontal and vertical inches of movement versus league average. Here he is inducing a big whiff on his cutter earlier this season:
Nasty Cutter by Kutter Crawford #RedSox #DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/RBMy33zU0L
— Lucasparmenter23 (@Lucasparmenter0) July 21, 2024
Sinker Out% Leaders (17.7% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 25.7% |
| Tarik Skubal | 22.4% |
| Miles Mikolas | 22.3% |
| Bryce Miller | 22.2% |
| Ben Lively | 21.6% |
| Ranger Suarez | 21.5% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 21.3% |
| Jose Urena | 20.9% |
| Tyler Rogers | 20.7% |
| Seth Lugo | 20.5% |
Ben Lively has a 20% putaway rate on his sinker and a .231 BAA – those rank 19th and ninth respectively among pitchers who have thrown a sinker in at least 150 PAs. He also owns the fourth best strikeout rate, following the same parameters, at 27%. Lively’s elite extension makes up for some below average velocity. He also pinpoints his sinker extremely well, with a 105 plvLoc+. All of that makes his sinkers one of the best in the league.
Splitter Out% Leaders (20.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Justin Martinez | 28.3% |
| Bryce Miller | 26.6% |
| Mark Leiter Jr., Reed Garrett | 25.6% |
| Spencer Schwellenbach | 23.9% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 23.5% |
| Tanner Houck | 23% |
| Kutter Crawford | 22.7% |
| Fernando Cruz | 22.6% |
| Ryne Stanek | 22.3% |
| Bowden Francis | 22.2% |
Kutter Crawford not only has one of the best cutters in the league but one of the best splitters too. He does not throw it much – under 10% of the time – but probably should toss it more considering he gets an out with it nearly a quarter of the time. Crawford’s splitter has a .190 BAA, a 40% whiff rate, a 38% K rate, and a 28% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a splitter in at least 50 PAs, those marks rank 18th, 14th, 11th, and sixth best. Here, you can see why it has been so difficult for batters to hit:
Nasty Splitter by Kutter Crawford #RedSox #DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/KI6YtbayZX
— Lucasparmenter23 (@Lucasparmenter0) June 22, 2024
For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.
Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders
Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.
Slider Out% Leaders (18.2% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Derek Law | 26.9% |
| Yariel Rodriguez | 26% |
| Marcus Stroman | 23% |
| Ryan Helsley | 22.9% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 22.3% |
| Alexis Diaz | 21.7% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 21.6% |
| Hunter Gaddis | 21.5% |
| Carlos Rodon | 21.4% |
| Ryan Walker | 21.3% |
Ryan Walker should be near unanimously rostered in fantasy leagues, but remains a bit of the radar. One of the reasons why fantasy managers should trust him is because of his slider. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 sliders, only Mitch Spence gets more than Walker’s 8.3 inches of horizontal movement versus league average. Walker’s wipeout slider has induced a .157 BAA, a 38% whiff rate, a 40% K rate, and a 28% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a slider in at least 100 PAs, only Andrew Chafin and Andres Munoz have better stats in all four categories. Just look at this filth:
Ryan Walker, Wicked Sliders. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/53Awy8JOTY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 6, 2024
Curveball Out% Leaders (16.8% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Blake Snell | 23.9% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 22.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | 21.5% |
| Triston McKenzie | 21.3% |
| Zach Eflin | 20.9% |
| Framber Valdez | 20.4% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 19.9% |
| Seth Lugo | 19.5% |
| Pierce Johnson | 19.4% |
| Max Fried, Jose Quintana | 19.1% |
Spencer Arrighetti has had his fair share of struggles this season, but his curveball has been a bright spot and is one of the best curveballs in terms of getting batters out. Batters have had a difficult time doing anything productive with Arrighetti’s curveball. It has a .151 BAA, a 42% whiff rate, a 47% K rate, and a 33% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a curveball in at least 100 PAs, nobody can claim better numbers in all four categories. Arrighetti relies more on horizontal movement than vertical movement on his curveball. That movement, plus elite extension, keeps batters on their toes as you can see here:
Spencer Arrighetti, Nasty 80mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/rKZp2W7Dkx
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 22, 2024
Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.7% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 32.4% |
| Mitch Keller | 27.3% |
| Kyle Gibson | 25.1% |
| Jameson Taillon | 24.8% |
| Joey Estes | 23.7% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 22.7% |
| Tyson Miller, Luis Severino | 22.4% |
| Nick Pivetta | 21.9% |
| Aaron Civale | 21.3% |
| Zack Wheeler | 21% |
Joey Estes‘ sweeper has a .191 BAA, a 22% whiff rate, a 26% K rate, and an 18% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a sweeper in at least 100 PAs, only five other pitchers have better numbers than Estes in all four categories. What makes Estes’ sweeper stand out are above average induced vertical break and location. That has led to his sweeper grading as a Quality Pitch according to our PLV data. Here is a look at it:
Joey Estes, Filthy 79mph Sweeper. 😷 pic.twitter.com/8EoujqoZGr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 21, 2024
Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.
- Michael Wacha
- Hayden Birdsong
- Trevor Rogers
- Kevin Gausman
- Aroldis Chapman
- Bobby Miller
- Nick Martinez
- Justin Verlander
- Taj Bradley
- Nick Pivetta
Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.4% League Average
Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:
Changeup Out% Leaders (19.4% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | 24.4% |
| Michael King | 24.2% |
| Michael Wacha | 24% |
| Andrew Heaney | 23.7% |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 23.6% |
| Jose Berrios | 23.4% |
| Bailey Ober | 23.2% |
| Chris Sale | 23.1% |
| Tarik Skubal | 23% |
| Logan Webb | 22.8% |
Andrew Heaney’s changeup has arguably been his best pitch this season, and is one of the best changeups at getting batters out. It induces whiffs 25% of the time thanks largely in part to its horizontal movement and arm side break. Among pitchers who have thrown a changeup in at least 250 PAs, Heaney’s change has the sixth most horizontal break compared to league average. And his arm side break is far above league average for changeups. That has resulted in a .221 BAA against his changeup, good for 25th best among pitchers who have thrown a changeup in at least 100 PAs.
Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:
Pitchers to Target Based on Out%
Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches. Since the trade deadline has passed in many fantasy leagues, these are a few pitchers to target on waivers.