Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ TBR (ND) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
There are many different kinds of rolls. Cinnamon rolls, toilet paper rolls, sushi rolls, foam rolls – I could go on and on. In baseball, we focus on a different kind of roll. A role.
Position players fit into many roles, but we’re focused on pitchers. They can be deployed in a multitude of roles, mostly dependent on the point in which they appear in a ball game. We’ve got starters, openers, middle relievers, setup men, closers – the list is extensive, to say the least.
Brayan Bello has seen his role change throughout the year, and even in just a few outings this month, he’s seen it change from week to week. From the role in which he’s had the most success, bulk reliever, to a traditional starter, to a short-stint reliever, the Red Sox have been anything but consistent when it comes to Bello’s usage.
There was certainty about when he was pitching on Saturday, as he started in Tampa Bay, turning in his best outing of the year with 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches (ND). That’s a career-high-tying 11 punchouts, and it came with some interesting changes.
Typically a sinker-changeup arm, Bello instead threw his four-seamer more than ever, increasing its usage by nearly 30% to throw it 37% of the time, cutting back dramatically on cutters and sinkers in the process. With 1-2 extra ticks on the pitch, it dominated upstairs for nine whiffs, 35% CSW, and 74% strikes, as changeups gave batters fits low and armside, sweepers landed gloveside, and sinkers inflated his strike rate while avoiding damage in the zone.
The sudden change in approach is jarring, but it makes sense that Bello would continue to tinker amid a tumultuous season that even saw him demoted to the minors for a month. If he’s sitting 97 and locating as he did here, there’s much to be excited about. However, given his track record as an inconsistent pitcher, I can’t push all my chips in immediately.
Without a stable role, it’s unclear if he’ll get another start before the season concludes, or if he’ll be forced to pitch in some alternative role. If he does start, it would be hosting the Cubs, and I’d have him in the Questionable Start tier. Regardless, I’ll be keeping my eyes on him in the final week and in the playoffs to see if this is an approach that sticks around. The results are hard to argue with. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Robert Gasser (MIL) @ BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 107 pitches.
Seven shutout innings should inspire me to write Shakespearean sonnets, but I’m not smitten by more walks than strikeouts. Shall I compare thee to a Gasser’s gem? Thou art more Toby and more temperate…Filling up the zone with sweepers and a trio of fastball variants while hunting for chases below the zone with a timid changeup works occasionally, but it’s generally been mediocre. Rarely have the Brewers loosened Gasser’s leash as they did here, and rarely has he been efficient enough to qualify for quality starts. (View Game Card)
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) @ STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 92 pitches.
With his curveball feel at the zenith of its arc, Alvarez threw it more than ever (45% usage), turning in a second straight shutout start with 10 whiffs on the hook and eight punchouts. It didn’t even require the four-seamer precision upstairs that helped him pull off the BSB last time. The rest of his arsenal just loitered around the edges of the zone and let the breaker go to work. The Nats have allowed Alvarez to extend his pitch count when he’s feeling it, exceeding 90 pitches in three of his last four starts (all shutouts), so I believe he can give us 5+ frames of production in his final start of the year hosting the Mets. (View Game Card)
Bryce Miller (SEA) @ COL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.
Miller had already betrayed our trust with an awful second half, so expectations were low in the second half of his trip down The Green Mile, but to our surprise, he pulled it out. The sinkers we saw him throw more than four-seamers last time disappeared as he returned to his signature pitch, with sliders and splitters looking, and failing, to land at the bottom of the zone. With Emerson Hancock due back from the IL this week, Miller is expected to shift back to the bullpen and isn’t lined up for a start in the final week, so this should be the last brushstroke on a season that can be described as neo-expressionist. (View Game Card)
Cal Quantrill (TEX) vs TOR (ND) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiff, 8% CSW, 12 pitches.
Quantrill left the game in the second inning with lat tightness and is set to undergo further testing. His velo was down two ticks as a result of the injury, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t make his next scheduled start in Minnesota, especially with so much depth in the bullpen. We got both Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi in relief after Quantrill’s departure, with the former going 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BB, 1 K – 2 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 51 pitches (W) and the latter allowing one run in a lone inning. Neither are stretched out enough to produce an impactful start in the season’s final week. (View Game Card)
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs MIL (L) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BB, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 99 pitches.
Rogers got back on track, doing his usual BSB while sitting 94. That’s all he needs to turn in outings like this one where he earned the King Cole via fan-inducing four-seamers (41% CSW) and strike-stealing sweepers (61% CSW!). Heading to the Bronx to close out his season, Rogers should have no problem as long as Aaron Judge remains out of the lineup. (View Game Card)
Cam Schlittler (NYY) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Cutters took the wheel while four-seamers called shotgun as sinkers and curveballs weren’t commanded well, combining for 48% strikes. That’s the beauty of Schlittler: he only needs a couple pitches to overwhelm any lineup. He’ll look to cap off his AL Cy Young Award application with a start against the Orioles this week. (View Game Card)
Sean Burke (CHW) vs DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
No opener, but Burke secured the dub anyway. There are still concerns surrounding his signature four-seamer, which sat a tick down (so did everything else), but he threw enough strikes with his secondaries to allow the diminished heater to survive in the upper half of the zone. The White Sox are fighting for their lives in the AL playoff hunt, so they shouldn’t hesitate to deploy Burke in a Rockie Road matchup that will be well worth the start even if he’s not at his apex. (View Game Card)
Freddy Peralta (TBR) vs BOS (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
Now this is what I expected when the Rays acquired Peralta. Sure, it’s a frustrating “Philly,” and despite bringing the changeup back into the fold and struggling to find the zone with it (50% strikes), he turned in a fifth consecutive excellent outing, giving him a 0.94 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 22% strikeout rate during that stretch. My favorite part is that his Professor Chaos costume is still in the hamper and Fastball Freddy is back. He turned his heater up to a season-high 96-97 mph (+2 ticks!) with increased movement on both planes. If he can recover his changeup feel while maintaining this fastball, he’ll return to being the pitcher that was a borderline ace over the previous couple of years. (View Game Card)
Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs ATL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 79 pitches.
Nothing special to see here, but at least we can see Wesneski making an attempt at the approach we want to see from him. He got sinkers in on the hands to RHB while cutters jammed LHB. He’ll need a bit more precision with four-seamers upstairs and changeups low to set up his signature sweeper to generate swings and misses, but even still, with Sacré Verde up next, the Astros unwilling to let him pitch deep into games often, and a low strikeout ceiling, we can leave him on the wire. (View Game Card)
Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 71 pitches.
You can come on out now, guys! It’s safe to proudly call yourself a member of the Boyd Boyz again. Not only did we get a season-high 93.8 mph average four-seamer velocity (+1 tick), but he also pulled off the BSB better than he has in a while. The fastball-slowball duo combined for all 11 whiffs and all four punchouts, as he avoided the heart of the zone like I avoid horse droppings when on a trail run. We’re starting him in Boston in his final tuneup before the playoffs. (View Game Card)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs NYY (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 64 pitches.
After inducing 17 whiffs without the results to reflect his dominance, we were looking for Pfaadt to bounce back here to permit us to stream him in San Diego to close out the year. Welp, we’re not going on that field trip! Did you ask Mom if she would sign the permission slip? Both she and Steve said no. Ugh, c’mon, Steve! Why couldn’t we get a cool stepdad? Hey, at least he lets us stay up late to watch Brandon pitch. (View Game Card)
Grant Holmes (ATL) @ HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Here’s your Gold Star, Grant. You don’t sound very enthusiastic. He got a bunch of slider whiffs and turned in a poor WHIP with only a handful of strikeouts. Yeah, but he got a win and now has a 2.56 ERA across his past nine starts since the beginning of August. yEaH, bUt–don’t do that! Fine! Those are fair points, but he also has a sub-15% strikeout rate during that time without any pitch mix changes or arsenal improvements to suggest that the success will continue. Most importantly, he still breaks the Huascar Rule. What if I told you he was throwing 1-2 ticks harder across the board? I would say, “Do it again and I’ll reconsider”. But there’s only one start left in the season. Yup. If you want to Vargas Rule this, be my guest, but I’m not putting the REB service to the test. (View Game Card)
Joe Ryan (MIN) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 99 pitches.
This was the best Ryan’s looked since returning from the IL, as he earned a co-share Gallows Pole via excellent four-seamer command upstairs combined with sweeper domination. The ratios don’t suggest he’s fully back, but the ease with which he racked up whiffs thanks to his ability to pull off the BSB has me confident about starting him when he hosts the Rangers next. (View Game Card)
Michael McGreevy (STL) vs WSN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 1 K – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Even with great pitch separation, some extra velocity, and a little help from Koufax, McGreevy was too inefficient as he failed to put batters away. But he certainly put the butter away! HAISTBMBWT?! His tie is way too brown for us to trust him in Milwaukee, unless you’re desperate for a quality start. (View Game Card)
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs CHC (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 K – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
Not you too! As a fellow southpaw with a curveball, Lodolo received the good graces of Koufax to complete seven frames with just one strikeout. HAISTBMBWT?! He actually commanded fastballs and changeups well, but he didn’t get a single curveball to land gloveside. This is a guy who thrives with backfoot breakers! He needs to be making batters look foolish with that pitch to rack up the Ks his arsenal suggests he should produce. He heads to Toronto next, and it may not be spectacular, but that offense is terrible, and the Reds have given Lodolo a very long leash, so he should at least give you a good shot at a win. (View Game Card)
Jackson Jobe (DET) @ CHW (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.
Jobe recognized the success of his breakers last time and went full-on sicko slider mode. Many of the pitches labeled sliders were cutters, and some might’ve even been curves, but regardless, he cut his four-seamer usage below 20% and leaned on pitches with gloveside movement more than half of the time. It’s an exciting shift, allowing him to hunt for whiffs above the zone with four-seamers while stealing strikes and inducing weak contact in the zone with sinkers. It all worked especially well thanks to his ability to command his breakers (65% strikes) and keep them low. It was just a PQS due to a solo shot that led off the sixth (Careful, Icarus), but Jobe is looking stronger than ever, just in time for a send-off hosting the Pirates. (View Game Card)
Christian Scott (NYM) vs PHI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 79 pitches.
The line looks a lot worse than Scott pitched. He went Canibal McSanchez with support from a great feel for his splitter vs LHB, while going sweeper-heavy against RHB, but Koufax didn’t have his back as he got Singled Out with a .462 BABIP. He’s a worthy strikeout play when he heads to our nation’s capital. (View Game Card)
Jose Quintana (COL) vs SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 70 pitches.
Quintana returned from a four-month IL stint and had to pitch in Coors right away. He sat a tick lower, struggled to command his secondaries (53% strikes), and was limited to just 70 pitches. COL story, bro. (View Game Card)
Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs KCR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
“Trust is a funny thing; it takes such a long time to build, yet it’s broken in a second.” I don’t think Sandie Jones was talking about Chandler’s slider when she wrote that quote, but it describes his quick shift away from the breaker to throw fastballs 73% of the time. Too many of them sat in the middle of the zone, and with them sitting a tick down with a decline in iVB to 16-17″, they got hit hard. He’s been a 2027 play for a while now, but I’d love to see something to latch onto before we head into this long cold winter. (View Game Card)
Noah Cameron (KCR) @ PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.
It’s been a great run for Cameron, but he keeps breaking up his success with four-run outings. He’s done it thrice during his 11-game hot streak, but that won’t stop us from putting him in our lineups when he hosts the Guardians. He served up a pair of two-run homers here, accounting for all of the damage. One was deserved, as he left a center-cut changeup in the danger zone, but the low-and-away slider that Jake Mangum took deep was a good pitch. He’s still commanding well and even after this step back, he has a 2.01 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and a 23% strikeout rate across his past 11 outings. (View Game Card)
Andrew Painter (PHI) @ NYM (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 85 pitches.
Despite a co-share of the Gallows Pole, Painter served up a pair of homers totalling four runs, ruining what was otherwise an impressive outing. The CSW alone has me willing to write this one off, but he also sat 97+ with his four-seamer exhibiting 1-2 extra ticks of iVB to average 18 inches of rise. Breakers landed low and away to RHB consistently, and changeups were excellent against LHB. Nothing’s changed with Painter. Thus, I’m holding and starting him when he hosts the Rays. (View Game Card)
Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs SFG (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.
Aces gonna lose the feel for their changeup and struggle against his new rivals. The slowball struggled to be competitive at the bottom of the zone, returning just 17% CSW and 33% strikes. This was a One Night Bland, and Skubal has a shot to set things right with a rematch in San Francisco to close out his final season before an interesting free agency. (View Game Card)
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.
Is Detmers’ luck finally running out? He struggled to command his secondaries, with sliders, curveballs, and changeups combining for just 55% strikes, leaving his four-seamer susceptible to damage. It got bashed around for four hits and a homer, but Koufax did him no favors, as he returned a mere 40% LOB%. With a cushy matchup in Seattle next, don’t let this start scare you away from letting Detmers finish the job. (View Game Card)
José Soriano (TOR) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 80 pitches.
What was Soriano thinking, increasing his curveball usage to make it his primary offering when he couldn’t command it (42% strikes)? It makes even less sense when he did it at the expense of heaters, which combined for 73% strikes. It was cool to see splitters step up for six whiffs and 75% strikes, and it’s worth pointing out that everything fell apart in the sixth, leading to a Careful, Icarus without an extra out recorded. Regardless, Soriano deserved the results based on his curveball affinity alone. He’s produced a 4.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an 18% strikeout rate with the Blue Jays, leading me to suggest leaving him on the wire even as he heads down the Reds Carpet. (View Game Card)
Eury Pérez (MIA) @ SDP (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 97 pitches.
Another disaster for Pérez as he continues to fall apart. He’s got great stuff, but he doesn’t execute as he should. He constantly loses the zone or leaves hittable heaters over the plate, making him susceptible to homers and big innings. With a 10.13 ERA and 2.25 WHIP across his last five starts, it’s almost impossible to recommend starting him vs ATL next, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it clicks for a moment, allowing him to rack up some strikeouts. (View Game Card)
Casey Mize (SDP) vs MIA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 74 pitches.
Mize is all over the place. He can’t locate anything, he’s throwing slower, and he’s struggling to find confidence on the mound. There’s no semblance of the guy that got us excited in the first half of each of the last two seasons. I’m avoiding him everywhere in his final start. (View Game Card)
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs ATH (ND) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 95 pitches.
Bibee looks like he’s playing Pokémon TCG Pocket the way coin flips haven’t been going his way recently. Being Singled Out isn’t all his fault, but this batted-ball-reliant Toby puts himself in a position to be swayed by the whims of BABIP. Grab your lucky coin if you want to test Bibee’s luck one last time in Kansas City. (View Game Card)
Yunior Marte (SFG) @ LAD (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 97 pitches.
Yikes! Marte couldn’t escape the wrath of the Dodgers’ bats, but hey, he won’t have to face them every time! What’s that? He’s facing the Dodgers again after this one? I guess I spoke too soon. I don’t think his slider is good enough to carry an underwhelming heater and inconsistent splitter to t0 victory. (View Game Card)
Jacob Lopez (ATH) @ CLE (L) – 2.2 IP, 10 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 K – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 63 pitches.
Lopez’s hot streak came to a sudden end across his past two outings, and it all came crashing down in a disastrous outing that left us standing completely empty-handed. Well, except for this toast! HAISTBMBWT?! His velo is down, and he’s not pristinely pulling off the Canibal McSanchez. It’s not worth risking his command returning when he takes on the Astros. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Cristopher Sánchez vs. Jonah Tong – Sánchez is dope, and I want to see Tong continue to grow.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
