Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Gerrit Cole is getting an MRI on his throwing elbow. This is obviously terrible news and wouldn’t be happening if there wasn’t an issue. We don’t know what it is yet, what we do know is he’s likely delayed out of camp and the Yankees will need another starter. It could mean Blake Snell is signed on a one-year deal, it could mean Luke Weaver acts as a bulk reliever a few times, and it could also mean one of Will Warren, Clayton Beeter, Chase Hampton, or Luis Gil get an earlier-than-expected rotation spot. We’ll likely get an update today or tomorrow and pay attention to what’s next.
Edward Cabrera was removed from Sunday’s game during warmups with shoulder tightness. The severity is still unknown, though we’ve seen shoulder tightness that does not have structural damage many times in the spring – it’s just their arms getting ramped up for the year. Teams will be extra careful at this time of the season and if his MRI is clean, I’d imagine Cabrera will be throwing again shortly. He could miss opening day with the delay, though I’d be shocked if he has a clean MRI that he isn’t starting by the expected third turn of the rotation. Ryan Weathers was my favorite to get the 5th rotation spot before this news, which means Trevor Rogers or Max Meyer could be the SP #5 for the first two weeks. My guess is Rogers, allowing Meyer to conserve a few more innings as he pitches in his first full season back from TJS.
Atlanta officially demoted AJ Smith-Shawver to Triple-A. It’s not a major surprise with Reynaldo López and Bryce Elder as the two favorites for the SP #5 spot, with my lean currently toward Elder as the choice given his experience last season. López has more fantasy value, though, and I’m all for drafting him as a late dart throw who you can easily drop if he doesn’t get the job.
Gavin Williams had an awkward throw during his regular weighted ball workout, creating small discomfort in his elbow. His start was skipped as a precaution and is currently treated as a minor concern. He’ll throw again shortly.
Jameson Taillon is still feeling lower back tightness, making him questionable for Opening Day. He’ll undergo some testing this week and in my view, it’s likely something that will correct itself over a week of rest.
Frankie Montas has been named the Opening Day starter for the Reds, pitching at home against the Nationals. It changes up the rotation order a bit and is a slight shock (Greene?!), but doesn’t do a whole lot for his fantasy appeal, save for becoming a small temptation as a streaming option given the expected weak Nats offense. Don’t forget, streaming the opening weekend can be effective as you can get sneaky production before some of your SP #4/#5 arms get their first outing, allowing you to snag a stream, then pickup that late-rotation arm at zero cost. That said, I wouldn’t chance it in Great American Small Park. Who knows, maybe the Nationals are better than we think?
Sonny Gray is ahead of schedule as he recovers from his hamstring injury. Expect him to be ready within the first two weeks of the season, if not back in time to make a start during the first turn of the rotation.
There’s a chance Alex Cobb could be back even sooner than reported as he may be pitching in a game as soon as Saturday. It would make him an option for the rotation before the end of April, though this isn’t actionable in 12-teamers or 15-teamers. I’d wait and see through the day he comes off the IL.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
TBR vs. BOS
PHI vs. PIT
ATL vs. NYY
BAL vs. TOR
DET vs. NYM
STL. vs. MIA
Aaron Civale (TBR) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. We saw more of the kitchen sink here (it’s the spring) and while we didn’t get any slider whiffs, I’m glad he’s using them well. All looks normal here.
Garrett Whitlock (BOS) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Super weird to see Whitlock put his slider on the shelf completely, turning to just five cutters, 26 sinkers, 10 changeups, and 9 curveballs. It’s not the pitch mix I expect from Whitlock – I’m used to sinkers + changeups + sliders – and I wonder if it’s him tinkering a bit while he has the chance. Great inside sinkers here against RHB, though, and he mainly spotted that curve down-and-away, so it’s not all terrible here at all.
Max Castillo (PHI) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. I’d be shocked if Castillo get significant innings this year. He’s not relevant.
Quinn Priester (PIT) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. His slider is still better, but everything else isn’t. I have low expectations for Priester.
Jared Jones (PIT) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. FINALLY, VIDEO AND DATA! I watched all of it and I have thoughts. First, his velocity is fantastic and while it’s not 18-19″ iVB, it’s still above average at upper 90s and that heater will be a force against all batters. Meanwhile, his slider/cutter is straight filth when he actually executes it (7/15 whiffs!), which was about 75% of the time. It’s going to be a massive pain for so many batters. There are two problems, though. First, Jones doesn’t have the deepest arsenal, flexing a decent curve and throwing just one changeup (blegh) across 42 pitches. That puts a lot of pressure on both his heater and slider earning strikes and the former didn’t come with the command I’m looking for. He tugged his heater gloveside constantly, missing more east-west than north-south, which isn’t ideal for a power arm like Jones. I have some concerns he’s going to be a bit wild, but that could be a product of spring adrenaline as he’s maintained sub 10% walk rates across over 240 frames in the minors. The stuff is real and if he boasts an 8% walk rate in the majors, he’ll be legit. Keep drafting him late in hopes he makes the rotation.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. We’ll see him back later this year. He failed to get his four-seamer upstairs here as it still sat 96+ mph, and he needs that pitch upstairs with its shape. Follow his Triple-A performances as he’s currently the SP #7 for Atlanta.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. The big hole is LHB and while I actually liked all four cutters he threw inside to them, two did not go his way because baseball. Everything else – sinker, curve, sweeper – was blegh in my book, and it will be a process throughout the year. Still great against RHB, though.
Albert Suárez (BAL) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. He was 94/95 mph in this one, not 96/97 mph, but still went 8/28 four-seamer whiffs and kept his changeup low. He still needs to figure out the cutter as it failed to get down, while I’m not sure I’m okay with him sitting sub 95 mph, though he held it constantly through the outing and his fastball command is still solid. I NEED MORE SUÁREZ.
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) – 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. His heater was just 93.8 mph after sitting ~95 mph last year, though he is elevating much more with the pitch, while the changeup and slider are getting low most of the time. I’m oddly cool with this – I think the velocity will return and he needed to get his four-seamer just a little higher on the 0-2 grand slam slugged by Jackson Holliday.
Brant Hurter (DET) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. 93 mph with sinkers down the pipe and a decent slider and 2/7 strike changeup. Let’s move on.
Wilmer Flores (DET) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. It’s cool to see him sit 98 mph across eight four-seamers, but his command is terrible. I don’t think that’ll get fixed.
Ty Madden (DET) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. His slider and cutter are reliable, but the fastball was all over the place. He executed some of them well, but there were a fair number well armside, tugged gloveside, and bounced on the plate. I feel like he needs to slow down a little during his delivery (could be spring adrenaline) and I’m curious to see more with a better camera angle.
Adrian Houser (NYM) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. It was fastballs because of course it was. Nothing new here, sadly.
Gordon Graceffo (STL) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s a 93 mph heater that went 3/32 whiffs across 54% usage, with 1/19 whiffs on sliders to support it. Yeah, that’s doesn’t do it.
Drew Rom (STL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s abandoned the sinker at least, now keeping the same arm angle for all his pitches. Props for that, and he returned 7/26 whiffs on his four-seamer while the sweeper went 36% CSW with a 73% strike rate. Not bad, but hot dang, he can’t get that sweeper down, and it’s just a 91 mph heater without the VAA you want, though it does have solid iVB. Sorry, not enough.
Devin Smeltzer (MIA) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. He stepped in as Edward Cabrera left with injury during warmups. Smeltzer is the super-backup as a bulk reliever, nothing more.
Statcast Games – No TV
WSH vs. MIN
MIL vs. COL
Joan Adon (WSH) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. He was demoted after this outing, so let’s move on.
Pablo López (MIN) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Pablo was clearly working on the sweeper, as he normally wouldn’t throw 13 of them with just 8 changeups while going 4/13 strikes on said sweeper. Note: Nine pitches were not characterized by Statcast data and could affect these numbers. Don’t worry about Pablo. The velocity slightly down, which is normal for ramping up. He’s still our guy.
Jakob Junis (MIL) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. 1/32 slider whiffs, just six secondaries thrown across 56 pitches, and two ticks down on everything. That doesn’t sound good. No. No it does not.
Joe Ross (MIL) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s similar to Junis as a sinker/slider arm and I’m not seeing anything jump off the page to suggest we should be interested for 2024. Well, there is one thing – he’s going BSB, even with that sinker, which is sure to make Eno happy. There are some four-seamers up there as well and maybe there’s a way it all comes together, while his slider was generally well spotted with very few blatant failures.
Ryan Feltner (COL) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Cool. No, COL. Okay.
No Statcast – TV
ARI vs. LAD
CHC vs. TEX
SDP vs. LAA
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Blegh. It’s not clicking yet and I personally don’t think the ceiling is worth it. It’s not as high as others.
Gavin Stone (LAD) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Oh look, there I go being conflicted again. Stone’s changeup is looking great and his first strikeout appeared to come from a back-foot slider, though that could have been a poorly spotted changeup and I hate having this camera angle + zero data. Some very smart people are in on Stone given how his 2023 season was such a departure from his minor-league skills, though I’m not entirely convinced his breaker and heater are good enough to support the changeup enough to be a major fantasy arm. Maybe take a chance on it and be quick to drop if it fails.
Drew Smyly (CHC) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s good to see him have a solid outing after the dismal early performances. With Taillon possibly needing some extra time, Smyly could piggyback with Wesneski or Assad early in the year, though it’s not a proposition I enjoy for fantasy.
Cody Bradford (TEX) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. I guess you’re the guy, huh? Maybe some sneaky value in your AL-Only leagues for Wins, but he’s a Toby at best and a meh streamer.
Jordan Wicks (CHC) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Strikeouts? From Wicks?! Enjoy the #5 spot, six of those strikeouts came via the fastball, which doesn’t seem legit to me as it grades out across the board as a below-average offering, but he did get some whiffs on it above the letters against some legit hitters. If only we had the proper data…
Jhony Brito (SDP) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. You love to see the strikeouts and it did look a bit like he’s mixing in a cutter/slider with the curve, but that could just be the camera angle and lack of data. He’s a sleeper for NL-Only leagues and I’d consider him still just a streamer for your standard leagues.
Chase Silseth (LAA) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. His two strikes were a high breaker and a splitter that landed middle-middle at 0-2 for a frozen backwards K. Oh. Yeah. He’s not sporting the best secondaries I need to see for him break the chains of pitching for the Angels.
No Statcast – No TV
TOR vs. BAL
MIA vs. HOU
CLE vs. CIN
KCR vs. OAK
CHW vs. SFG
SFG vs. SEA
Ryan Weathers (MIA) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Dude. This is getting bananas. His spring stats are absurd and it’s clear that the Marlins have him in their rotation now with Cabrera on the mend. Take him in drafts and see how this plays out.
Yonny Chirinos (MIA) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. This isn’t going to be a thing unless things get really bad in Miami.
Seth Martinez (HOU) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Oh look, another bullpen game. So it goes.
Devereaux Harrison (TOR) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Of course Toronto will have the guy named Devereaux. We can move on past this.
Corbin Burnes (BAL) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. This is spring. Nothing weird to report. We ignore.
Xzavion Curry (CLE) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s the SP #6/7, but not someone you want on fantasy squads.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. He apparently hit 96 mph and was sitting higher than last year. Encouraging for Lodolo, though there’s still a fair amount of risk in Cincy here.
Brady Singer (KCR) – 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Womp womp. Seems like we can’t trust his new sweeper. After all, he needs a weapon vs LHB, not RHB.
Alec Marsh (KCR) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s still around and likely ahead of Lynch in the SP depth chart, but I’m not into it.
Paul Blackburn (OAK) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s in the rotation, but the skills aren’t worth your time, let alone with the A’s winning few games.
Sean Newcomb (OAK) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I guess this could still be a thing? It’s not a thing. Yeah, you’re right.
Chris Flexen (CHW) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. He could easily be the SP #5, but I’d still keep track of Crochet. This is obviously a whole lot of blegh.
Spencer Howard (SFG) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. The Giants are exploring all their options for the backend of this rotation, and who knows, maybe it’s Howard…? You can skip it.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
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