Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
The Tigers optioned Matt Manning to Triple-A. I know. I KNOW. I did an emergency update to The List because of it and raised Casey Mize into the Top 50 as he’s primed to dominate with a locked rotation spot. Unreal.
There’s a possibility Ricky Tiedemann breaks camp with the Jays and is a part of the rotation. I’m not sure how it works, though. Berríos, Bassitt, and Kikuchi are locks. Gausman is throwing 65 pitches on Monday, making him good for 70-75 as the SP #4/#5 after the opening series, though this quote is likely regarding if Gausman isn’t ready in time. With Alek Manoah on the mend, Bowden Francis has been the arm we’ve expected to enter the rotation, and I don’t expect Francis to be ousted. outlined my thoughts on Tiedemann as a starter below in review of Thursday’s start.
Shane Baz is progressing and faced live hitters last Saturday. Expect him by mid-May and fully in the rotation when he arrives.
Javier Assad will be in the starting rotation for the Cubs to kick off the season. This is only until Jameson Taillon is able to return after throwing out his back, of course. I wouldn’t be targeting Assad in my leagues, with Hayden Wesneski as a more intriguing option to potentially vulture a Win after Assad likely is removed before the end of the fifth.
Wade Miley is dealing with a groin injury. We expected him to enter the year on the IL for shoulder soreness and now this confirms that the Brewers will be without the craft lefty for a week or two of the season.
Expected Rotations By Team
San Diego Padres 15 – Los Angeles Dodgers 11
Joe Musgrove (SDP) @ LAD (ND) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 60 pitches. I’ll make it simple. Don’t read into these Korea Series outings. It’s still ramp up time for these guys and the fact that Musgrove isn’t losing velocity (fine, 92.5 mph instead of 93.1. Whatever), is healthy, and is still focused on slider/curve/cutter, you should feel totally fine to still draft him. H*ck, this was the DODGERS y’all.
Michael King (SDP) @ LAD (W) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 75 pitches. The walks are weird, but King was pitching around hitters constantly, as he should have. I’m a believer in his ability and still would love him as my SP #4 everywhere.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs SDP (L) – 1.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 43 pitches. I know I’ve been the down guy on Yamamoto, but you shouldn’t be drafting him any differently now than you did before this start. Again, these games are weird, this was the first official game for Yamamoto, he hasn’t had enough time to settle in, and I have to wonder if the Ohtani scandal effected him as well, given how close the two of them are. His four-seamer will be far better command than this.
Statcast Games – TV
NYM vs. DET
HOU vs. STL
TBR vs. PHI
TOR vs. PIT
Dominic Hamel (NYM) @ DET (ND) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 55 pitches. It was a terrible camera angle and he went 2/33 four-seamer whiffs as he struggled to get it upstairs. Pair that with a sweeper and nothing else and you have a pitcher who could be something more with better command and a third offering to throw against LHB. But the cutter curve and change! He threw just ten of those combined, so I guess that’s about 20% total? 2/5 cutter strikes…yeah. Let’s wait.
Matt Manning (DET) vs NYM (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches. They just demoted him. How could they do this to Manning. 6/27 slider whiffs with a 40% CSW. 94.3 mph heaters. 6/7 curveball strikes. But fine, FINE. His four-seamer command wasn’t as good as it normally is and let’s hope he’s even more polished and sitting 95 mph when he returns.
J.P. France (HOU) @ STL (W) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 66 pitches. Ayyyy 36% cutters! He couldn’t get them or the rest of his kitchen sink down, sadly, but that lean into the pitch is a good thing given his mediocre heater. Why does he have to get the Yankees + Rangers in his first two starts…
Zack Thompson (STL) vs HOU (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 73 pitches. He has elite extension, but poor fastball shape and at 1-2 ticks down across the board, it returned 19% CSW even with decent command with his three-pitch mix. Something needs to get better with his heater, from its HAA, iVB, or velocity as the extension can’t do everything.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) @ PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 54 pitches. Yeah, I’m turning back around on Pepiot. He’s done the thing we wanted – high heaters! – and also sitting up a tick as the pitch held a 30% CSW and 17% SwStr rate yesterday, while the changeup boasted a 74% strike rate and six whiffs of its own. Yeah, but what about the slider? You mean the pitch that went 9/10 strikes? Oh snap. Yup. He’s locked in, the only question is if the Rays will let him go more than five innings this year. He needed just 54 pitches here and you can’t bank on that efficiency in the slightest. I’m sad he gets the Jays + Coors to kick off the season. That complicates things just enough, though he does look good enough to power through the early poor matchups.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs TBR (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 72 pitches. Hey! The velocity is holding at 94 mph – two ticks up from last year. However, the changeup feel is rough right now at 3+ ticks harder and without that slowball cooking, Sánchez doesn’t get the same called strikes on the sinker, and it falls apart. Yes, I’m a little worried right now.
Ricky Tiedemann (TOR) @ PIT (W) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 50 pitches. I really want to be hyped for Tiedemann (he could take Bowden Francis‘ rotation spot…but then again, they’ve also confirmed Francis in the rotation?! I DON’T UNDERSTAND), but I see a 50% strike rate on his sinker and sliders hoping to find the strikezone and I just can’t latch on with conviction. He’s also at just 50 pitches now, making him capped around five frames early on, with plenty of inefficiency along the way. This has all the makings of a Cherry Bomb and yet I’m okay taking a spec add if the other options aren’t around. I really don’t like a potential first start against the Astros though…
Paolo Espino (TOR) @ PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Hot dang, look at you! His change and curve tallied 11/34 whiffs combined, while the fastball snuck in for 9/27 called strikes. That’s cool and works when he’s able to do that, but spoiler alert: He ain’t gonna do that a whole lot. With the talk of Ricky + Francis + Gausman, etc., it’s clear Espino is on the outs as the overall SP #7 or even #8 behind Manoah.
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs TOR (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches. He’s a strange one to me. Falter has elite extension among the best in the game and with a high release point, he earns plenty of vert on his four-seamer, but sits 90 mph and has average HAVAA on the pitch. But doesn’t this profile out to be Ober’s heater? YES! It’s actually super similar, with Ober having more precision upstairs and Falter getting more vertical rise as a slightly flatter angle. Then why do you hate Falter? Because the Pirates are weird, Falter doesn’t command his as well as Ober, and he doesn’t sport a solid secondary like Ober’s changeup. I legit wonder if a team will trade for him and try to figure out a slowball with him + get some cut on the heater with the over-the-top delivery to help deal with LHB. It could work. For now, the Pirates aren’t going to choose him over Jones. We hope.
Statcast Games – No TV
CHC vs. COL
Drew Smyly (CHC) @ COL (ND) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. 8 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 37 pitches. At least he’s showcasing himself as…wait. That’s a 9.00 ERA. At least he had some good curves and heaters…? The Cubs have to find something better than Smyly this year.
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs CHC (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches. COL story, bro. But it’s a tick harder! And 9/32 whiffs on breakers! And gets the Cubs in Wrigley in his first start! I’ve heard worse propositions, truly. WAIT, REALLY?! Feltner has a super flat four-seamer (1.4 HAVAA is 87th percentile!) and was landing upstairs often at 96 mph. That will always play, which helped those breakers earn those whiffs even without great locations. If Feltner was on another team, I may actually be interested, hoping for him to nail the BSB and get those breakers low. Please hold that 96 mph velocity and hiLoc%.
No Statcast – TV
NYY vs. ATL
CHW vs. KCR
BAL vs. BOS
Nestor Cortes (NYY) @ ATL (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Not the flashiest spring for Cortes, but at least he’s healthy. I’ve found myself a little cautious with Cortes as I don’t want to believe his early 2023 was a product of his ability and not a result of a lingering injury that eventually placed him on the IL. I want to believe.
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs NYY (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Oh look, more walks and poor WHIP marks from Morton. Gasp.
Garrett Crochet (CHW) @ KCR (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I’m excited to get a good camera angle and data for Crochet on opening day, but for now, I’m tepid on Crochet given the two-pitch mix and command that makes a little concerned he can be the overwhelming electric arm his mid-to-upper 90s velocity suggests.
Andrew Hoffmann (KCR) vs CHW (ND) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Nah, this ain’t the guy for the Royals. I imagine it was to have someone start so Lyles can act like a reliever.
Jordan Lyles (KCR) vs CHW (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. HE LIVES. Kinda weird to see him throw out of the pen, but with Marsh starting the other game, it’s clear Lyles is turning into the long reliever. Oh PG7, maybe there are better days ahead.
Albert Suarez (BAL) @ BOS (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Hey, he’s back! No velocity readings sadly and the dream is pretty much dead until we see 96/97 mph velocity readings again + a proper secondary or two we adore. Suitman whispers in my ear The broadcast was saying he was sitting 96 mph? Well that’s cool.
Cooper Criswell (BOS) vs BAL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s looking great as the SP #6 for the Red Sox, though I don’t love this once he actually starts. It’s a worse Houck to me.
No Statcast – No TV
KCR vs. CLE
SFG vs. MIL
CIN vs. SEA
MIN vs. WSN
Alec Marsh (KCR) @ CLE (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s the new SP #5 for the Royals and I think y’all know not to chase this one.
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs KCR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s stepping up as the SP #5 with Gavin Williams on the mend and seeing a fully stretched out Carrasco is pretty awesome. He gets the Mariners + White Sox and who knows, that could be a pair of Quality Starts. I wouldn’t expect the Guardians to limit Carrasco if he’s under 85 pitches by the end of the fifth.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ MIL (W) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. There’s all this weirdness at the end of the Giants rotation with Cobb still out for around a month or so, and Roupp is the most interesting arm between him, Mason Black, and Daulton Jefferies, and it’s hard to tell what the Giants are going to do at this point. Keep your eye on Roupp, he’s someone who could turn heads if he gets a proper starting gig.
Robert Gasser (MIL) vs SFG (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Womp womp. The Brewers rotation is super weird with Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, and Joe Ross all involved despite that obviously not being ideal. Aaron Ashby isn’t primed for a rotation spot at the moment (and his sinker isn’t what it was in 2021), making Gasser a possible early addition. Ignore this outing, he was clearly off his game, and pay attention to his early Triple-A numbers.
Nick Martinez (CIN) @ SEA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Martinez, you can’t be walking four batters like that. But I threw fewer four-seamers like you asked! Did you actually? I have no data on that. I dunno, I’m just saying that to deflect. Well alright then. He’ll head to Philadelphia for his first outing and that’s not for me. I want to see his approach first before leaning in at all, especially against a solid offense.
Jhonathan Diaz (SEA) vs CIN (ND) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. You can ignore this one. This isn’t the guy you’re looking for.
Cole Sands (MIN) @ WSN (ND) – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Well, what are you? Cole or Sands? I’m fiiiiine. We’re getting off coarse, let’s move on.
Trevor Williams (WSN) vs MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. #NeverTrevor.
What To Watch on TV Today
Spring SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
TARIK SKUBAL VS. ZACK WHEELER
Luis Gil – CH + SL strikes? 4S Up? SUPER DOPE?!
Justin Steeeeele – New changeup?
Keaton Winn – Ayyy, you're here! How's the splitty?
Mitch…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 22, 2024
Coarse?