The List 4/10: Top 100 Starting Pitchers – Week 2 Fantasy Baseball 2023

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 45,000+ Top 300 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.

Let’s get to it.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• I know there are going to be a ton of comments about how can you have so many changes in the first two weeks?! or I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
• These rankings mostly change in the back-half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Grayson Rodriguez (47), Kyle Wright (55), Garrett Whitlock (56), Anthony DeSclafani (63)
• Removed: Ross Stripling (55)
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (-2)

 

• Look y’all, I’m not touching the Top 20 SP just yet. Two starts (for some, just one!) do not define these aces and I can’t do it yet. Let’s hope I don’t need to next week.
• I made a mini-tier for Alek Manoah, Framber Valdez, and Zac Gallen if I didn’t actually move them around. I recognize your concerns about them and I’ll be monitoring their next starts very closely. Make sure to read my SP Roundup after those starts to get a sense of their spots on The List next week before Monday’s update.

 

• Special Announcement: It’s a special day at Pitcher List today with the first real edition of The List underway. As a token of my thanks (and for you for actually reading the notes), we’re giving you a $60 discount on PL Pro Yearly – the biggest discount we’ve ever given at 25% off. Sign-up for PL Pro Yearly with promo code TODAYSTHEDAY to get your $60 off. Check out all the perks you get here, which includes all of the 2024 pre-season tools you’ll want.

 

• I have another mini-tier after the potential aces with Jesús Luzardo, Freddy Peralta, and Clayton Kershaw. The theme is clear – these guys are aces…if they stay healthy. I’m a huge believer in their skills and have Luzardo slightly above Peralta given I trust his health a touch more, but with each week their chance of getting injured in 2023 decreases (less time to get injured!) and I expect them to produce more often than those below them.

 

• The sixth tier is a fun one. Here are all the pitchers who I’ve been thrilled to watch the first two weeks of the season…and Nestor Cortes who is all ready to go now that he’s up to 90+ pitches.
• Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs have feasted during a week of weak offenses, yet their skills do suggest strength throughout the season.

 

• I not just the increased velocity for Pablo López holding up through his second start, but also the reliance on his slider. As long as his shoulder and health stay afloat, López is going to help many managers celebrate.
• After earning 37 whiffs across his first two starts, Nick Lodolo is certainly the apple of our eye. I still have a few questions about the longevity of his command and success, but he has to be on the trend upward at the moment.

 

• The seventh tier is a sea of red as I had to raise the likes of Tier 5 and Tier 6, but don’t let that deter you from guys like Logan Webb, Hunter Greene, Reid Detmers, and Joe Ryan. I still dig ’em all, just not as much as Tier 6.
• George Kirby, I’m a little less into than I used to be. His secondaries look too similar to last season (read: they aren’t getting whiffs), which lowers the realistic ceiling for him this season. I hope he finds something soon to turn him from a ~23% strikeout arm into a 25%+.

 

• I had to give drops to the disappointing Lance Lynn and Blake Snell performances, though I ultimately believe both will produce across the season ahead. Lynn held reduced fastball velocity (we’ve seen that before) and I anticipate a bounce back, while Snell is struggling to get land his breakers for strikes. He’ll adjust, he always does.
• The eighth tier is simple: It’s the Get It Together tier. Lucas Giolito had a horrible day at the park despite throwing 93 mph and I imagine he’ll have it under control soon. Chris Sale hasn’t had a regular routine for ages and looked better as the game went on. Charlie Morton is often a slow starter and should improve, and Chris Bassitt was better in his second game than his first. You have to hold ’em all.

 

• The ninth tier is the crew of “yeah, I’m liking these guys and would not be dropping them in leagues.” Some may hover around #50 for the better part of the season as they don’t carry elite upside (Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, Brady Singer), but hot dang would I like rostering them all.
• Despite Kenta Maeda literally allowing a 3-run shot as I typed these notes, I’m moving him to #43 on The List this week. His slider is looking legit and while the splitter still needs some work, I’m loving what I’m seeing. Ignore the blast from today and sign up for the good situation Maeda has going for him.

 

• I’m stoked to see Grayson Rodriguez with the team and I hope he sticks around when Kyle Bradish returns to the rotation. Grayson didn’t impress massively in his debut, but the four-seamer improved and I imagine we’ll see a better breaker and changeup in his follow-up performance.
• Hunter Brown looked much better in his second outing, utilizing more breakers than I anticipated and reducing his fastball near just 35% usage. This works and it could make for a strong season if the breakers earn just a few more whiffs.

 

• I love the new slider from Alex Cobb, as it helps his sinker and curve earn strikes to set up the splitter. It may be the legit season for Cobb we wanted last year to be with his improved velocity.
• Speaking of improved velocity, Sean Manaea got his first start over the weekend and came guns blazing. He did get a bit gassed by the end, but the secondaries were improved as well, making him clearly a must-roster at the moment.

 

• In the tenth tier, I still like a fair amount of them, but it’s not as clear that they’ll provide the production you want. Kyle Wright and Garrett Whitlock return to The List this week after starting the season on the IL and I slotted them at the spot where I’d take chances on them over the questions of pitchers behind them. Don’t activate them if you don’t have to – I imagine both will have a suppressed pitch count.
• Tyler Mahle tossed 94 mph in his first start and 93 mph in the second. I hope that’s not a trend that continues and if he can keep up the velocity, he’ll rise into the ninth tier in no time.

 

• I gave a drop to both Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray this week for two different reasons. Heaney struggled in his first start with the Orioles and while the stuff itself seemed good, he may be returning to his former Cherry Bomb ways.
• As for Jon Gray, I’m not a major believer in the current fastball/slider combo he’s putting out there. The fastball is a tick down and has never been an elite pitch, while the slider isn’t earning the elite number of whiffs it’s known for. My enthusiasm is tepid and I wish he made me excited.

 

• And yes, I’m digging Seth Lugo still. His new slider should be better in future starts, allowing him to resist free passes with ease. It’s a great situation he’s in and I prefer over the oft-Cherry Bomb nature of Zach Eflin.
• Lastly, at the top of the tier is Patrick Sandoval who isn’t blowing me away with his changeup & slider. He’s still a threat to your WHIP with each start and I hope he gets into a groove that shoots him up The List quickly.

 

• The eleventh tier is an interesting one, containing today’s popular name, Kris Bubic. I outlined him inside the roundup and the quick story is he’s improved his velocity and thrown changeups for strikes across two starts. That’s not a definite indication he’s golden, though, and with a start against the Braves next, I still have concerns it can go poorly. Still, he’s worth the spec add above guys like Steven Matz and José Urquidy.
• For example, I buy into Anthony DeSclafani sticking with his “I’m good every-other-year” trend as he looks to have a firm rotation spot in San Francisco (Ross Stripling is out, right? It’s not a six-man…?). I dig his slider and a pair of easy matchups ahead and would rather bank on that over the mystery box of Bubic.

 

• I still rank Hayden Wesneski favorably as one start without dominance with the breaking ball isn’t enough to deter me from a possible legit season ahead. There may be some growing pains, but it’s such a good pitch while the cutter and fastball aren’t as detrimental as say, a traditional Guardians pitcher.
• There’s also Graham Ashcraft, who has the velocity but not necessarily the skills to demand excellence against Atlanta and then hosting the Phillies at home. He’s still very susceptible to the blowup, ya’ll.

 

• I gave a drop to Nick Martinez after a disappointing outing, though I do believe he’ll right the ship and be a fantasy producer as he travels into the season. You don’t need to hoard him at the moment, but be on the lookout – he does have a favorable schedule for three of his next four games, though (MIL, ATL, @CHC, CIN).
• I bumped up José Urquidy as he looked better with his approach in his last start + gets the Pirates next. He deserves a roster spot in most cases.

 

• The next two tiers are divided up between “hey, that’s an interesting upside play” and “hey, I just need a starter I don’t absolutely hate”. You may see guys in the 80s you’d rather have on your teams than in the 70s and that makes a whole lot of sense. This is why you read the notes, y’all.
• Inside that Tier 12 upside crew are MacKenzie Gore and Drey Jameson. Gore has looked better with his four-seamer and breakers and despite getting a rough schedule ahead, he’s starting to turn heads. Now may be the time you want to make a spec add as he could be gone next week.

 

• The injury to Zach Davies allowed Drey Jameson to get the rotation spot he deserved out of spring camp. I don’t love his fastballs, but his slider is effective and he can deliver against the right offenses.
• I hope the Yankees heavily consider keeping Jhony Brito in the rotation when the time comes as I really dig his changeup and fastball approach. It seems safer than the likes of Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt.

 

• After a horrific season opener, Michael Kopech bounced back against the Pirates, featuring 96 mph heaters and plenty of sliders for strikes. We’ve seen him have these flashes, though, and I’m not ready to say Kopech is ready to go, especially with Baltimore, Tamba Bay, and Toronto ahead.
• I had to give a drop to Jameson Taillon, even though he earned seven strikeouts over the weekend. Only five whiffs tells the tale of his breakers not combing through as I’d like them to, and while I see a future where Taillon belongs in Tier 8, it’ll take some time.

 

• Tier 13 is the Toby tier and take your pick. Noah Syndergaard nor Eduardo Rodriguez are throwing as hard as we want them to, Tyler Anderson’s changeup isn’t as good as it was in 2022, and Martín Pérez, Kyle Gibson, and Merrill Kelly can make it work against poor offenses.
• Cal Quantrill and Zach Plesac aren’t the best options out there, but Guardians face some terrible lineups in the near future. This may be worthwhile, especially with Plesac suddenly featuring over 50% sliders.

 

• It was a wonderful performance from Michael Wacha, but do we really trust his command is that good? And will he get his velocity back to normal in his next outing? I still trust Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo more to excel with their arsenals.
• And yeah, Miles Mikolas is still here. I don’t love him, but yeah, he’s a Toby alright. Just don’t over-throw him against good offenses.

 

• Tier 14 is your last hope at “maybe they change in their next start.” Trevor Rogers doesn’t look like the man we want him to be, Jack Flaherty has walked 13 in his first two games (but at least he’s throwing harder now!), Edward Cabrera can’t find the zone with his fastball, and Josiah Gray is all kinds of interesting with his reduced four-seamer usage but the matchups are too dang brutal.
• Oh Dylan Dodd. At the moment, he’s the better rookie southpaw option to chase in Atlanta, but what are we gonna get? I do believe that if he were to start ten games in a row, you’d want to be rostering him after the first two. But are we going to get that chance? Can he get his slider command back in order?

 

• I didn’t mention Alex Wood and that’s because he’s…okay. His velocity is a little down from 2022 and it feels too risky to think he’s suddenly going to turn it around. You don’t need to go off and chase Wood with so many other names to pick up instead.
• The bottom tier is the “fine, I guess” crew. Mike Clevinger didn’t capitalize against the Pirates and I’m absolutely cool just not thinking about him again this year.

 

• There’s a solid two-start week ahead for Bryce Elder against middling offenses that could pay dividends. At the same time, it’s Bryce Elder.
• It’s an absolute storm of emotions rostering Mitch Keller and I elect to simply ignore it and seek sustained happiness. Don’t forget, it’s not a good thing to pitch for the Pirates.

 

• Finally, with the coveted #100 ranking this week is Tyler Wells, who gave you a 1.00 WHIP and six strikeouts across six frames against the Yankees. He could survive against the White Sox and produce against the Tigers after and I won’t count it out. PLV adores him and we may see why very soon.

 

SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Shane McClanahan T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Spencer Strider	Aces Gonna Ace	-
8	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Playing Time Question	-
9	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	-
10	Jacob deGrom T3	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
11	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
12	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
13	Cristian Javier	Aces Gonna Ace	-
14	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	-
15	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	-
16	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	-
17	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	-
18	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	-
19	Alek Manoah T4	Ace Potential	-
20	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	-
21	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	-
22	Jesús Luzardo T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+3
23	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+11
24	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+2
25	Drew Rasmussen T6	Ace Potential	+13
26	Jeffrey Springs	Ace Potential	+4
27	Nick Lodolo	Ace Potential	+10
28	Pablo López	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+5
29	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	-6
30	George Kirby T7	Ace Potential	-8
31	Logan Webb	Ace Potential	-4
32	Hunter Greene	Ace Potential	-1
33	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	-1
34	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-5
35	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	-
36	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-12
37	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-9
38	Dustin May	Ace Potential	+2
39	Lucas Giolito T8	Ace Potential	-3
40	Chris Sale	Ace Potential	+1
41	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-2
42	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	-
43	Kenta Maeda T9	Ace Potential	+9
44	Kodai Senga	Strikeout Upside	-1
45	Jordan Montgomery	Quality Starts	-1
46	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+4
47	Grayson Rodriguez	Ace Potential	+UR
48	Nathan Eovaldi	Quality Starts	-
49	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	-4
50	Hunter Brown	Ace Potential Playing Time Question	-1
51	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-5
52	Sean Manaea	Strikeout Upside	+1
53	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+3
54	Patrick Sandoval T10	Cherry Bomb	-3
55	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	+UR
56	Garrett Whitlock	Ace Potential	+UR
57	Seth Lugo	Cherry Bomb	+4
58	Tyler Mahle	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+7
59	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	-5
60	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-13
61	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-4
62	Hayden Wesneski T11	Strikeout Upside	-4
63	Anthony DeSclafani	Quality Starts	+UR
64	Graham Ashcraft	Cherry Bomb	-5
65	Kris Bubic	Cherry Bomb	+UR
66	Justin Steele	Cherry Bomb	+5
67	Nick Martinez	Cherry Bomb	-7
68	Luis Garcia	Ratio Focused	-5
69	Steven Matz	Ratio Focused	+6
70	José Urquidy	Toby	+17
71	MacKenzie Gore T12	Cherry Bomb	+18
72	Drey Jameson	Streaming Option	+UR
73	Tylor Megill	Streaming Option	+7
74	Jhony Brito	Ratio Focused	+UR
75	Jameson Taillon	Toby	-11
76	Michael Kopech	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	+16
77	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside	-4
78	Ryne Nelson	Streaming Option	-1
79	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside	+3
80	Martín Pérez T13	Toby	+15
81	Noah Syndergaard	Toby	-19
82	Eduardo Rodriguez	Toby	-14
83	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	-14
84	Kyle Gibson	Toby	+UR
85	Merrill Kelly	Toby	+11
86	Michael Wacha	Toby	+UR
87	Bailey Falter	Toby	+7
88	Cal Quantrill	Streaming Option	+11
89	Zach Plesac	Streaming Option	+9
90	Miles Mikolas	Toby	+7
91	Trevor Rogers T14	Strikeout Upside	-5
92	Jack Flaherty	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-9
93	Dylan Dodd	Streaming Option	-27
94	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	+UR
95	Edward Cabrera	Strikeout Upside	-16
96	Alex Wood	Cherry Bomb	-20
97	Mike Clevinger T15	Streaming Option	-16
98	Mitch Keller	Cherry Bomb	+UR
99	Bryce Elder	Cherry Bomb Toby	+UR
100	Tyler Wells	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)