Top 100 Dynasty SPs – Midseason Update

What’s up, dynasty fam? You’ve been asking, so here it is! The midseason update to the Top-100 Dynasty Starting Pitchers.

ICYMI: Preseason Top-100 Dynasty Starting Pitchers 

Let’s get to the Updated Dynasty Top-100 Starting Pitchers. Enjoy!

 

LINEUP CARD

 

Victory Lap
Preseason rankings that went well

Taking Some L’s
Preseason rankings that didn’t go so well

Tiered rankings
The top 100, broken out by tier, with excerpts on a number of players

Heat Map
The full top-100 list is here, with an accompanying heat map identifying pitchers’ strengths and weaknesses

 

VICTORY LAP

 

If you read the notes (seriously, right Nick?) of the preseason rankings, you’ll have been able to identify pitchers ranked aggressively, labeled as a tier target, or as a dynasty darling. Let’s take a quick victory lap:

 

Sandy Alcantara, RHP, MIA

What a dude, leading the league in innings pitched and currently the front runner for the NL Cy Young award. Thank goodness, because we don’t need any more sub 200.0 inning winners (yep, old school). There were a number of questions and pushback on ranking him in the Top-5, and well, he should have been higher. He currently ranks first in the league with a 4.0 fWAR.

 

Daniel Espino, RHP, CLE

Espino was generally ranked closer to the back end of the top-100 dynasty starters across the industry but he slid in at #65 here and was identified as a tier target. He has a knee injury right now so his highlights haven’t graced your Twitter feed in some time, but when they did, it was glorious. He’s going to be a huge riser up the rankings and with a 2023 ETA, that buy window has probably slammed shut.

 

Roansy Contreras, RHP, PIT

He has an extremely bright future and was identified as a tier target. He made his MLB debut in late 2021 and had Pirate fans clamoring to see him in their rotation to start the year. At only 22 years old, there will be some bumps along the way but his fastball/slider combination has an immense ceiling. He’s shown polished command in the past but will need to harness it at the highest level to reach his potential. Contreras was recently optioned back to Triple-A Indianapolis, but it’s expected to be a short stay and is primarily for workload management.

 

Casey Mize, RHP, DET

Mize was firmly ranked within the top 100 elsewhere and was heavily debated right up until the publishing of my article. In the end and despite his pedigree, he was left off of the list entirely. For two seasons Mize battled hard contact and poor peripherals, falling short of lofty expectations as a former first overall pick, something just wasn’t right. His saga continued this season and eventually ended with Tommy John surgery. It’s unlikely he returns to a meaningful starter’s role until 2024.

 

TAKING SOME L’S

 

There are plenty of names on the new rankings that were not previously included or even some who fell far down or off the rankings. That isn’t necessarily an “L” here, rather, below are some pitchers that were purposefully ranked either aggressively or conservatively, and well, it didn’t work out.

 

Jack Flaherty, RHP, STL

Ouch, well his 2019 season is officially in the rear-view mirror. His skill set and upside are tremendous but the shoulder injury is a significant concern. In the original rankings, he was given the benefit of the doubt when it came to his injury risk, which ended up as a miss. He’ll be a complete wild card heading into 2023. Don’t try to catch a falling knife.

 

Ian Anderson, RHP, ATL

Perhaps visions of his 2021 playoff performance danced in my head as the rankings were compiled, but Anderson has largely been a disappointment in 2022. He continues to be plagued by poor command, which is responsible for his 41.4% hard-hit rate and 11.1% walk rate, both up big year-over-year. He’s been on the hot seat recently after stringing together an eight-start stretch where he allowed 30 earned runs. But he’s still only 24 years old and has time to figure it out, but not without falling down the rankings first.

 

Carlos Rodón, LHP, SFG

His offseason ranking varied widely, especially before signing with San Francisco. It’s about time we start believing in what the Giants are doing if you haven’t already. There was so much injury baggage with Rodón, ranking him aggressively just wasn’t in cards. He easily should have been a tier or two higher. He’s only behind Alcantara with a 3.8 fWAR.

 

Max Meyer, RHP, MIA

My belief in Max Meyer as a successful big league pitcher six months ago was significantly less than it is now. Having spent a lot more time watching his outings and following him this season, his stuff (devastating fastball/slider combo) is going to play and his upside is as high as they come. His elbow injury adds some uncertainty to the mix, but his ranking was far too low. Notably, Meyer made his MLB debut this past weekend, working 5.1 innings with five strikeouts and a 29% CSW% (41% CSW% on his slider). He figures to be an integral piece of the Marlins rotation for the foreseeable future.

 

TOP-100 DYNASTY RANKINGS 

 

RANKINGS PHILOSOPHY

• These rankings are built with the next three-to-five years in mind; projecting any further than that is irresponsible
• Standard categories were considered for a 12-team league with daily lineups and no contracts
• Tiering can be arbitrary at times, especially as you move further down the list, so tier size generally increases

 

RISERS & FALLERS

Here are some of the biggest movers on this edition of the rankings. They are in no particular order here, rather, just identify the rankings that have changed the most.

Notable risers: Spencer Strider, MacKenzie Gore, Kyle Wright, Tylor Megill, Cristian Javier, Brayan Bello, Gavin Williams, Gavin Stone, Ricky Tiedemann, DL Hall, Eury Perez, Tony Gonsolin

Notable fallers: Jack Flaherty, Mike Clevinger, Lance McCullers Jr., Lance Lynn, Trevor Rogers, Ian Anderson, Jack Leiter

 

Tier 1

Corbin Burnes takes over the dynasty throne after backing up his NL Cy Young winning season with an equally stellar first half of 2022. He’s currently on pace for 31 starts and 180.0 innings to go along with 33.1% CSW, that’s exactly what you want to see from your top starting pitcher, and his track record dating over a season and a half gives him the edge over his peers.

Shane McClanahan will be a popular number one dynasty pitcher this offseason, if not already. He’s leading the league with a 36.6% CSW and is top-five in almost every other category. Particularly love his 35.7% strikeout rate paired with a 51.2% groundball rate, my goodness that’s elite. It will be interesting to see how the Rays handle his workload in the second half considering their playoff aspirations and because he’s currently on pace for a career-high 200.0 innings.

A popular riser this past offseason, Sandy Alcantara has been dominant in his ascension. He leads the league in innings pitched (old schoolers rejoice!) and has worked 7.0 innings or more in 14 of 19 starts and enters the All-Star break amid a 13-game streak dating back to May. He’s also posted a career-high 56.4% groundball rate. He sits third only due to an average 27.5% CSW, but don’t let that fool you. He’s top three in the league at generating weak contact (7.2%) which supports his league-low 14.1 pitches per inning, thus allowing him to consistently work deeper into games.

Reigning #1 overall, Gerrit Cole has largely been his usual self with a 31.6% CSW right in line with his career average but his command has wavered slightly, posting a 6.7% walk rate (his worst as a Yankee) and being susceptible to the long ball, having allowed 17 already at the break. He’s still really darn good, just splitting hairs amongst the game’s best.

https://gfycat.com/hoarsemixedcurlew

(Shane McClanahan)

 

Tier 2

Zack Wheeler is posting pretty much the same line and peripherals as he did during 2021. His velocity has dipped a little year-over-year and he’s surrendering a touch more hard contact, but he’s worked six-plus innings in 11 of his last 13 starts, averaging just one walk per start. He’s still a stud and his profile will play for several more years.

Aaron Nola is back in a big way, drastically improving his command which has resulted in career lows for walk rate (3.3%) and HR/FB% (10.9%). Over his career, he’s tended to give up the long ball in his career (26 homers allowed in 2021) so this is a nice step forward. Currently, he’s fourth in the league in innings pitched, and has posted a superb 30.7% CSW.

Joe Musgrove’s breakout and rise up the ranking continues and he’s on pace for his best season in the big leagues. He ranks eighth in the league with a 31.9% CSW% and is top-10 in both ERA and WHIP.

Alek Manoah is a popular dynasty target and was a big offseason riser following his second-half breakout in 2021. He’s top-10 in innings pitched, ERA, and WHIP this season, though, strikeouts have taken a step back (27.7% strikeout rate in 2021 compared to 22.6% this season). His 29.1% CSW% is still very strong but this year he’s looking like he’s more of a higher-floor pitcher than higher-upside. At only 24 years old that’s sort of nitpicking, and he’s shown us he has that strikeout upside, just a matter of bringing the whole package together.

Brandon Woodruff has missed some time this season with a handful of injuries, most notably (and scary) is Raynaud’s Syndrome, which left him dealing with significant hand numbness and tingling. Imagine trying to pitch. Thankfully, he is back and appears healthy. Woodruff has shown some inconsistencies this year, letting command get away at times and allowing a career-worst hard contact. His 3.39 xFIP is about a half run better than his 3.93 ERA primarily due to being on the wrong side of some batted ball luck (.322 BABIP) and a poor 67% LOB rate.

A popular offseason riser, Julio Urías has had an unspectacular season relative to the lofty 2022 expectations. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, and his velo has taken a tiny dip. But he continues to limit hard contact, ranking 8th overall while posting an impressive 1.05 WHIP. He has worked at least six innings in 10 of  17 starts and is on pace for his second straight season of eclipsing 180.0 innings. Feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s still only 25 years old.

https://gfycat.com/energeticvaluablechicken

(Aaron Nola)

 

Tier 3

Shohei Ohtani continues to amaze both on the mound and at the dish, but his 130.0 or so innings each year are proving to be incredibly valuable, almost deGrom-like. He’s had some elbow concerns in the past but even as a pitcher-only (looking at you, Yahoo) he’s somehow still underrated.

Lessons have been learned here about accounting for injury risk, and Jacob deGrom’s is well documented by now. If you roster him, you’ll have to deal with partial missed seasons. He’s the best pitcher on earth, when healthy. He’s due to make his 2022 debut after the All-Star break.

Max Fried has improved his command and dropped his walk rates and hard contact a few percent each. Though he has a less-than-elite 27.3% CSW% and 18.3% K-BB%, he is generating more weak contact and pitching deeper into ball games. He is fourth overall with 119.1 innings pitched (6.3 IPS) and is proving to have an extremely high floor.

Dylan Cease is a big riser due to his gaudy strikeout numbers. He currently ranks fifth in the league in both swinging strike rate (17.1%) and strikeout rate (34.4%). His rise up the rankings may have peaked unless he can improve on his poor 11.1% walk rate. Why he’s not an All-Star, we may never know.

Lucas Giolito is on thin ice right now, everything is moving in the wrong direction, including his fastball velocity which has averaged just 92.5 mph over his last three starts. Command has been an issue too, as he’s registered an 8.5% walk rate and his HR/FB% is up over 4% year-over-year.  Though his CSW has improved compared to 2021 and he’s been on the wrong side of some batted ball luck (.338 BABIP). His outlook in the second half is very uncertain.

Kevin Gausman was the hottest pitcher on the planet to begin the 2022 season until he ran into some pitch tipping issues and missed some time with an ankle injury. Still, he’s only allowed three home runs all season, has a 4.6% walk rate, and 1.84 FIP. Checks notes, yeah, that’s pretty good.

Let’s talk about Shane Bieber for a minute, actually, you might not like this ranking so grab a chair.  The former Cy Younger has reinvented himself this season, and if you’re following along at all this probably isn’t news. Compared to 2020, Bieber’s average fastball velocity is down from 94.1 mph to 90.8 mph and his slider usage is through the roof, up to 34.6% utilization compared to 11.0%. There have been games where his slider is thrown 40%-50% of his pitches. His CSW% and K% are going strong at 32.5% and 24.9% respectively, but are both in a three-year decline. He’s also surrendering hard contact at a career-worst 28.7%. He’s a different pitcher, but he’s getting the job done, for now. This reinvention is something that you would generally see with post-prime pitchers, not a 27-year-old who’s two years removed from winning a Cy Young award. One can’t help but wonder if he’s a ticking time bomb. Sorry, Goldy.

The same can be said for Walker Buehler, who unfortunately is sidelined right now with an elbow injury. Before his injury list stint, he was a less effective version of his former self, registering a career-worst 26.2% CSW% and 21.2% strikeout rate. He’s expected back in September but for our fantasy teams, we might not see him again until 2023. Maybe this is an overly-pessimistic ranking, but don’t play with fire.

https://gfycat.com/caringwickedfirefly

(Shohei Ohtani)

 

Tier 4

Max Scherzer continues to defy father time, though he missed several weeks already this season with an oblique injury. When he is on the field he’s elite and he’s under contract until 2024 so we will get at least two more years. Grayson Rodriguez is baseball’s top pitching prospect and he was on the verge of making his MLB debut before hitting the injured list with a lat strain. It’s uncertain whether he’ll be back this season but his big league debut is most certainly coming by spring of 2023.

Spencer Strider is enjoying one of the finer breakout seasons of any pitcher in the Majors. Since becoming a full-time starter at the end of May, Strider has posted a 3.42 ERA over 50.0 innings, with 77 strikeouts. That’ll play, just wondering if he’s not ranked high enough.

Kyle Wright is also a big riser up the ranks, experiencing a breakout of his own. Pretty much all of his peripherals are positives across the board, including many career highs; 30.7% CSW%, 13.1% swinging strike rate, 52.9% groundball rate, and 24.5% strikeout rate.

Luis Severino looked great over the last two months before landing on the injured list this week. Since May 15, he posted a 2.60 ERA with 63 strikeouts over 55.1 innings pitched and only a 6.6% walk rate while eclipsing seven or more strikeouts in six of nine games. He left Thursday’s game with shoulder tightness, this could be a major setback, we’ll see.

Tarik Skubal is a big riser up the rankings as well and looked the part of a higher-end SP2 early on in the season. The last few weeks have been rough though as some command issues crept up on him and he was back to allowing too many dingers.

Tony Gonsolin has seized his opportunity in the Dodgers rotation and is blossoming. He ranks in the top five in both ERA and WHIP while posting a career-best 30.7% CSW%. At only 28 years old he has quickly become a premier dynasty option.

Recency bias is going to crush his ranking and he’s fallen here due to his mounting injury risk, but Shane Baz is going to be an interesting rank now for dynasty purposes. An elbow injury and surgery delayed the start of his season and unfortunately, he is back on the injured list and expected to miss several weeks. When healthy, his velocity was in line with career norms and he posted a 29.3% CSW%, but poor command led to an unsightly 33.3% hard contact rate and 7.7% walk rate. His 3.43 xFIP is nearly a run and half better than his 5.00 ERA, though. His injury risk can’t be overlooked anymore and when (if) he returns this season it’s probably going to be in a bullpen or opener-type role with a limited pitch count. He’s going to be a complete wildcard heading into 2023 and if his elbow injury is more significant than currently reported he’ll fall a little further down this list.

https://gfycat.com/minorunsightlycurassow

(Grayson Rodriguez)

 

Daniel Espino has limited action this season due to patellar tendinitis in his right knee, but when he played he’s been insane; 51.5% strikeout rate over 18.1 innings. He’s looking like a 2023 ETA and probably for good. George Kirby debuted this season and is looking like he’ll be a very high-floor type arm, supported by a 3.3% walk rate. That’s fine.

Justin Verlander is 39 years old, we know. So before you go running to the comment section; his average fastball velocity has returned to pre-Tommy John levels and he’s been one of the best overall fantasy pitchers this season. Verlander is ranked top-5 in ERA and WHIP, he’s getting generating a ton of weak contact, and has a 42.6% groundball rate, his highest since 2014. He deserves to be on this list, somewhere.

Tyler Glasnow would be way up this list if weren’t for Tommy John surgery. He’s targeting a 2022 return, but for fantasy purposes, we’re already looking forward to 2023. Blake Snell still has amazing stuff, but just can’t locate it – especially the fastball. He has a 13.8% walk rate – not good.

Framber Valdez is enjoying his best season in the big leagues; he’s third in the league and innings pitched and first overall with a 67.2% groundball rate. That’s crazy. Freddy Peralta has been out several weeks with a shoulder strain. He was a popular riser up the ranks this offseason but he has very poor command, which leads to the occasional blowup and limits his ultimate upside.

Nestor Cortes‘ wacky deliveries continue to deceive hitters and he has become an extremely valuable fantasy pitcher. He ranks 15th overall in WHIP and has pretty solid contributions across the board. MacKenzie Gore was becoming an afterthought for pitching rankings heading into this season as he struggled mightily with command, which led many to believe he was destined for a reliever role. He’s had a few rough outings to round out the first half, but fear not, Gore is a starter and will be in the Padres rotation for a long time. Don’t forget he’s only 23.

https://gfycat.com/distinctenchantedacornbarnacle

(Daniel Espino)

 

Max Meyer made his MLB debut this past weekend. His stats didn’t finish great but he’s certainly looked the part. His slider is wonderful. He has a bright future, with health. Roansy Contreras may not be ranked as high elsewhere, and that’s ok. He’s 22 years old, sits in the upper-90s with his fastball, and has a devastating slider. His command has been poor during his time in the big leagues but in the minors, it’s been very polished. With time, he’s going to flourish.

Cristian Javier has been one of the biggest breakout arms of the season, ranking fourth overall with a 35.2% strikeout rate and second overall with an 18.2% hard contact rate. His ultimate upside will depend on whether he can consistently command the fastball.

Chris Sale had a strong 2022 debut last week but unfortunately left his latest start with a fractured finger after being hit by a comebacker, and is initially expected to miss six to eight weeks. Injury concerns may cause fantasy managers to want to smash their TVs, but there’s nothing he could have done to avoid this one. It’s uncertain if we’ll see him again before 2023.

Eury Perez is the next big thing in Miami. At only 19 years old he’s the youngest pitcher in Double-A, has a 35.8% strikeout rate, and was named to the MLB Futures Game. He’s on track to make his big league debut in 2023, at 20 years old. The last Marlin to do that? Jose Fernandez.

Ah yes, José Berríos, Tyler Mahle, and Trevor Rogers – where do we even begin? All three have had disappointing encores to their 2021 season. Berríos might be the most discouraging of the three. Until this past week, he had a negative fWAR on the season, then he struck out 20 hitters over his last 12 frames with only one walk and looked the part of his preseason ranking (17). Mahle is currently out with a shoulder strain but is expected back shortly after the All-Star break. His strikeout rate and walk rate are going in the wrong direction, and he’s just allowing too many baserunners to score (68.5% LOB%). His xERA is only 3.31 though, so perhaps an improved second half is in the cards. Rogers’ command has escaped him, walking 11.0% of hitters and he’s already allowed more home runs this season (11) than last (6). Consider this ranking cautiously optimistic that he figures it out, eventually. If you squint hard enough these three are decent buy-lows in dynasty leagues.

https://gfycat.com/reliablebadchipmunk

(Roansy Contreras)

 

Tier 7

Attention prospect lovers, here we go. Gavin Williams has a case to be way up these rankings, he’s dominating this season; 64.2 innings pitched, 91 strikeouts, 1.64 ERA, and .90 WHIP over two levels (High-A and Double-A). The risk with Williams is some spotty injury history, but with health, he is one of the top prospect arms to roster.

Brayan Bello made his MLB debut a couple of weeks ago, and if you’re going off how he did in two big league starts you might be missing something bigger happening here. His ascension started at Double-A this season and over two minor league levels, he’s thrown 85.0 innings, with 114 strikeouts, and a 1.05 WHIP, and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a single outing. He’s likely going to spend the majority of the second half in Triple-A as the Red Sox have some starters getting healthy. Bello is a 2023 breakout candidate who you want on your roster.

Lefty Kyle Harrison has big-time stuff and three plus offerings but just needs to continue to refine command as he progresses. Taj Bradley’s breakout continues. Many feared him being a reliever or just the overall risk of rostering a Single-A arm, however, Bradley has posted a 1.70 ERA over 74.1 innings in Double-A with a 30.9% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate and is now on the verge of his MLB debut. Choose your fighter.

Triston McKenzie is enjoying a superb 2022 season, exceeding my expectations and getting a deserved bump up the rankings. Although, his 4.19 xFIP exceeds his 3.20 ERA by nearly a full run and he certainly benefits from playing in the AL Central. It’ll be interesting to monitor his workload in the second half as he’s currently on pace for nearly 170.0 innings, having never eclipsed 143.0 innings in his professional career.

Reid Detmers continues to battle command issues but has plenty of pedigree and is still only 23 years old. Though, having “Angels Starting Pitcher” on your resume doesn’t mean much these days. Cade Cavalli has had some ups-and-downs at Triple-A this season but has flashed his upside recently. The Nationals are probably in no rush to promote him, but he’s a big name to know for 2023.

Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller, a duo-as old as time. Well, not really, but they are being compared under the same microscope now. You may not like this, but Stone is possibly the Dodgers’ top prospect arm. There was some reliever risk with him and maybe still is, but this season he’s made 16 starts in High-A and Double-A, striking out 106 hitters over 78.0 innings, with a 1.50 ERA. Dating to May 15, Stone has made 10 starts, striking out seven or more in eight of those while picking up five wins and logging a 1.53 ERA. He’s a candidate to make his MLB debut later this season. Miller has the higher prospect pedigree though hasn’t enjoyed the same success this year as Stone. Miller has struggled with his command putting up a mediocre 8.9% walk rate over 15 Double-A starts. This is much less about Miller’s struggles than it is about Stone’s breakout.

https://gfycat.com/flawedcapitalfantail

(Gavin Williams)

 

Prospectors will smile just hearing the name, but Ricky Tiedemann has been one of the most sought-after pop-up prospects this year. After being drafted last season, he added a few ticks to his velo before starting his barrage of minor league hitters. At only 19 years old, he’s one of the youngest players in High-A (and reports that he’ll be promoted to Double-A soon) and pretty much strikes out everyone he faces. Through two stops this year, he has 103 strikeouts in 67.2 innings, with a 2.13 ERA. His fastball/slider combo is carving up the low minors, we’ll see how it plays against advanced hitters, but he’s a big riser this season.

DL Hall is on the verge of his MLB debut. He’s battled injuries throughout his career but enjoying a big year in Triple-A. He’s had command and pitch tipping issues that have clouded the stat line, but outside of that, he has big-time stuff and a chance to be a rotation cog in Baltimore. There is plenty of reliever risk here, but the upside is immense. Jack Leiter’s professional career got underway this season, jumping right to Double-A. He’s been held back by command issues and is likely to need some additional seasoning in the minors well into 2023. He has the pedigree to be a big riser next season.

Edward Cabrera has had a shaky 2022 and has had trouble finding his place amongst a crowded rotation in Miami. He’s currently on the injured list and has been the subject of trade rumors for a few months now. There is some reliever risk in his profile due to mediocre command, but he’s been a starter throughout the minors and during his brief time in the big leagues.

Mick Abel and Andrew Painter are two prep arms that Phillies faithful will want to know. Abel has enjoyed a breakout at High-A as we’ve gotten into the summer but like many battles command issues. Painter is extremely young but put up gaudy strikeout numbers at Single-A and recently earned a promotion.

Gordon Graceffo has rocketed up rankings this year as well. Over two levels, he’s logged a 2.18 ERA over 99.0 innings with 97 strikeouts. He’s been cooking at Double-A recently too. Over the last month, he’s picked up four wins in six starts, with a 2.87 ERA over 37.2 innings. It’s unlikely, but he’s a candidate to make his debut later this season too. Speaking of debuts, Caleb Kilian made his debut in Wrigley this season and has bounced back and forth to Triple-A a couple of times. His prospect shine has worn off to an extent as his normally great command has escaped him a bit this year. Jackson Jobe, like his draft counterpart Painter, is still very young and very raw. He’s here because of his pedigree and ultimate upside, but he’s not yet shown much in the professional ranks.

Are you still reading? I commend your efforts and thank you.

https://gfycat.com/leanheartydrafthorse

(Ricky Tiedemann)

 

Just Missed

(In no particular order): Matthew Liberatore, Taijuan Walker, Charlie Morton, Miles Mikolas, John Means, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lance Lynn, Tyler Anderson, Jeffrey Springs, Josh Winder, Marcus Stroman, Paul Blackburn

 

Notable Omissions

Adam Wainwright (age), Sixto Sánchez (injury risk), Nate Pearson (injury risk, reliever), Kyle Hendricks (Toby), Chris Paddack (Toby), Alex Cobb (Toby), Stephen Strasburg (injured), Steven Matz (Toby), Carlos Carrasco (injury risk), Marco Gonzales (Toby), Yusei Kikuchi (injured, Toby), Garrett Whitlock (reliever), Tanner Houck (reliever)

 

FULL TOP-100 WITH HEAT MAP

 

Mound Visit

• This table is a complete listing of the Top-100, with the added feature of layering in a heat map of meaningful pitching metrics and identifying the top and bottom percentiles of each category
• The calculated percentiles are based on a population of top-100 pitchers only
• The heat map intends to enable you to analyze how a specific pitcher compares to their peers and within the top 100
• You should be able to easily identify a starting pitcher’s strengths, weaknesses, and style; i.e. hard-throwing and high strikeouts compared to a control first pitcher who induces a lot of ground balls. Of course, your top tiers are generally a mix of both
• The data points listed below are 2022 stats achieved at the MLB level only

 

Understanding the Metrics

Below are brief definitions of the metrics used throughout the heat map, provided for your reference.  Please check out the Pitcher List Glossary for details on all fantasy metrics.

IP: Innings Pitched. Used below to identify pitchers with the highest innings volume and as an indicator of sample size when analyzing the provided metrics. 180+ innings over a full season is considered good, with 200+ innings being excellent volume. The average innings pitched for a qualified starter through the All-Star break is 103.0 innings.

CSW: Called Strikes + Whiffs. A good determination of how dominant a pitcher performed. ~30% is good, and 35-40% is excellent. 20-25% often comes with bad results.

K-BB%: Strikeout rate minus walk rate provides a measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness.  ~20% is good, and 25%+ considered excellent. League average is approximately 14%.

FBv: Average Fastball Velocity, league average is 93.2 mph in 2022.

GB%: Ground-ball rate represents the percentage of balls hit into the field of play that are characterized as ground balls. Pitchers with high ground-ball rates tend to allow fewer home runs (which result from fly balls and line drives). Groundball pitchers generally have rates of 50% or higher.

 

Dynasty Top-100 Starting Pitcher Rankings with Heat Map

 

Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Drew Wheeler (@drewisokay on Twitter)