In last week’s Waiver Relief, alongside my usual update on all closers leaguewide, I provided my top-10 rankings for holds and SPRPs. That’s become my standard weekly format, and it leaves a benchmark if you’re looking for a complete picture of the bullpen waiver landscape.
This week, I’m doing things differently. I’m still providing that same closer coverage, but then highlighting a few particular risers and fallers for holds and SPRPs. These come with direct comparisons and potential transactions so you know how to handle them.
(stats updated through Thursday, 6/18)
Closer News (by team)
ATH
The A’s two saves this week were predictably split between Hogan Harris and Elvis Alvarado. The two, though, are on opposite trajectories. Harris continues to operate with an unsustainable 14.8% walk rate; he’s allowed multiple baserunners in four of his last five appearances, including a seventh-inning blowup on Tuesday. Alvarado, meanwhile, has yet to surrender a walk in 6.1 innings since his latest call-up, while appearing almost exclusively in the ninth inning.
I spouted off long enough about Alvarado last week, but I’ll continue to tout him as a high-priority add until he proves me wrong. He continues making his way up my rankings below.
BAL
Closer Ryan Helsley was activated from the injured list on Tuesday. All other Oriole relievers can safely be returned to the waiver wire in standard leagues.
CHC
Closer Daniel Palencia was placed on the injured list on Tuesday with right elbow inflammation. It’s Palencia’s second trip to the IL this season, and it should at least be lengthier than the first. Jacob Webb picked up a save on Wednesday and is the clear frontrunner in Palencia’s absence. Webb hasn’t been great lately, but his season-long numbers are actually quite closer-worthy, with elite 34.2% chase and 32% whiff rates backing his 27.4% strikeout rate. Given the unknowns regarding Palencia’s injury, Webb vaults into the middle of my closer rankings below. Caleb Thielbar lands on my watchlist as the next man in line.
MIN
Yoendrys Gómez seems to have finally separated himself as the Twins’ closer, picking up saves in three of his last four appearances. Unfortunately, this has also come with diminished performance, as the dominant stretch we saw out of Gómez in May has given way to a fairly pedestrian June. Nonetheless, Gómez had already climbed my rankings significantly of late, and is cementing himself as one of the top widely-available options for saves.
SF
Ryan Walker was recalled from Triple-A last Friday, prompting manager Tony Vitello to declare Caleb Kilian as the team’s closer, with the intent of using Walker more flexibly. This was made even simpler when Keaton Winn was placed on the injured list on Sunday with a right elbow strain. I’ll take Vitello at his word that Kilian has a clear path for saves given his recent good form, as he’s on a run of eight straight scoreless appearances.
Saves – Top 10 (<=60%-rostered Yahoo)
Alex Lange falls a few spots this week; Jacob Webb enters for the first time.
- Jacob Latz – TEX (52%)
- Tanner Scott – LAD (48%)
- Gregory Soto – PIT (47%)
- Yoendrys Gómez – MIN (22%)
- Elvis Alvarado – ATH (15%)
- Caleb Kilian – SF (9%)
- Jacob Webb – CHC (3%)
- Alex Lange – KC (22%)
- Seranthony Domínguez – CHW (50%)
- Kirby Yates – LAA (6%)
The Watchlist: Clayton Beeter (WSH), Grant Taylor (CHW), Caleb Thielbar (CHC), Ryan Zeferjahn (LAA), Lucas Erceg (KC)
Holds – Risers (<=1%)
Yennier Cano (BAL) (1%)
Cano’s bounce-back season caught a second wind in June, with a run of seven scoreless appearances and a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The knock on Cano all year has been the lack of counting stats to go with his stellar ratios (2.16 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), as he’s put up just five holds all season. I’m hopeful that Cano’s reemergence, combined with the recent pullbacks of guys like Rico Garcia and Grant Wolfram, will finally force the Orioles’ hand into making him one of their top setup men. Even now, I’d roster Cano over guys like Hunter Gaddis, José Alvarado, and Justin Slaten.
Michael Petersen (MIA) (1%)
Petersen’s numbers were buried by a couple of particularly poor early-season showings, which also called his high-leverage usage into question. Those outings have been put in the rear view; since the calendar turned to June, Petersen has pitched nine innings across eight appearances, putting up a 15:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just a single earned run, good for four holds. His season-long 30.3% strikeout rate and .182 xBA put him in the upper echelon of all relievers, and his Stuff+ grade of 111 seems to back it up. Petersen’s latest stretch puts him past bigger names like JoJo Romero, Garrett Cleavinger, and Camilo Doval.
Edgardo Henriquez (LAD) (1%)
It’s always worth paying attention when a guy with Henriquez’s skillset (~101 mph fastball, 136 Stuff+ slider) starts to put things together. Since picking up his first hold of the season on May 14, Henriquez has put up a 15:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio en route to a total of five holds and a win over 12 appearances. It’s clear that he’s made his way into the Dodgers’ high-leverage mix, albeit in a crowded bullpen. He’s a top 40-ish holds league arm at the moment, among more heavily-rostered pitchers like Justin Sterner, Will Klein, and Kyle Finnegan, for comparison.
Holds – Fallers (>=5%)
Daniel Lynch IV (KC) (5%)
I’m admittedly late to dropping Lynch down my rankings, as he’s skated by on mediocre performance for nearly a month now. Through May 15, Lynch carried a sparkling 25:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 18.1 innings. In the month since, that ratio was a disastrous 5:5 over 12.2 innings. Lynch is still roster-worthy in any holds league, but is no longer one of my top few pickups at his roster rate. He’s been surpassed by the likes of Juan Morillo, Colin Holderman, and Orion Kerkering.
José A. Ferrer (SEA) (5%)
Ferrer has maintained some hype since his offseason acquisition by the Mariners, keeping his ERA below three (despite a 1.40 WHIP) and seeming like the potential next-in-line behind closer Andrés Muñoz. And yet, Ferrer has been the fourth-best setup man on his own team, behind (now-injured) Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, and Eduard Bazardo. He’s been particularly abysmal of late, allowing 15 baserunners and six earned runs in his last nine innings. While Ferrer does have some intrigue below the surface (a 125 Stuff+ grade, for one), he’s no more than a fringe top-40 holds league arm until he shows he can harness it.
Matt Strahm (KC) (9%)
Despite the fact that Strahm has yet to display fantasy value at any point this season, some managers have hung on due to the name recognition and potential for saves in a shaky bullpen. So, I’ll just highlight Strahm’s numbers since returning from an IL stint a few weeks ago: 5.2 innings, seven earned runs, eight hits, one strikeout. Let him go.
SPRPs – Risers (<=1%)
Mason Fluharty (TOR) (1%)
Fluharty’s counting stats (five holds, one save, and one win in the last 30 days) have finally started to catch up to his gaudy strikeout numbers and high-end peripherals (20.6 K-BB%, 3.08 SIERA). The only few SPRPs I’d roster over him are Jacob Latz, Grant Taylor, Yoendrys Gómez, and Didier Fuentes.
Mason Barnett (ATH) (1%)
Barnett was recalled from Triple-A on June 2. His first appearance followed a few days later, as he dominated his way through four innings with seven strikeouts against the Astros. His next two outings were good for his first major league save and win, respectively. In total, Barnett has pitched 10.2 innings since being recalled, striking out 14 batters while walking just three and allowing just one earned run. While his minor league numbers (4.64 ERA, 8.0 K-BB%) appear underwhelming, they were accumulated as a starter, so they aren’t much of a proxy for the potential here. I’d rather gamble on Barnett’s upside than continue to roster ratio killers like Tyler Alexander or Tyler Holton. At the very least, keep Barnett on your watchlist in any league where his SP eligibility would benefit you.
Daniel Espino (CLE) (1%)
Espino was once one of the top prospects in baseball, but injuries have led to a dragged-out minor league career and a conversion from starter to reliever. He was called up from Triple-A last Friday despite shaky performance (5.30 ERA) even at that level. Espino is nonetheless brimming with upside, displaying strikeout stuff in his major league debut on Wednesday, fanning two Brewers in a clean inning. Keep Espino on your watchlist for now, and scoop him up if he does make his way to high leverage opportunities.
SPRPs – Fallers (>=5%)
Antonio Senzatela (COL) (14%)
Over the last 30 days, Senzatela has pitched to a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, striking out just seven batters over 11 innings. Despite a strong start to the season, he’s become droppable in just about any mixed league regardless of format.
Braydon Fisher (TOR) (5%)
Fisher’s frustrating usage (opening four times in the last month) combined with terrible recent performance (14 baserunners allowed in his last five innings) has him tumbling down my rankings. He has some value in deeper leagues where his SP eligibility plays up, but he is no longer among the top 50 arms otherwise. The lesser-owned SPRPs that Fisher is droppable for include Mason Fluharty, Jack Dreyer, and Tyler Wells.
Ian Seymour (TB) (7%)
Seymour once ranked in my top five SPRPs, and still trails only Keaton Winn (11) among them with 10 holds this season. Unfortunately, it seems the Rays are intent on putting Seymour in a pseudo-starter role. His last two outings each ran at least three innings, and he’s a month removed from his last hold. He’s droppable in all leagues until his role is solidified, one way or the other.
