Hitter List 4/13: Top 150 Hitters For 2022 – Week 1

First, let’s get some basics out of the way in terms of how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:

 

• As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.

 

• I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.

 

• I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. Jon’s way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for Jon (and me) over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mate’s player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.

 

• Yes, these ranks vary from the official PL positional rankings that I also developed. That’s because these are only mine – no input from others. This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.

 

• I’m using 20 games as the threshold for the positional eligibility in the List. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions (such as Gleyber Torres moving to second base). This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!

 

And now a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:

 

• I’ve gotten more level-headed over the years when it comes to weighing stolen bases, but I still think they’re incredibly valuable given how rare they’re becoming. Every steal is important, so don’t take those “chip-in” steals for granted. Finding steals at the end of the season can be a dogfight.

 

• So let’s talk about hot starts: Don’t worry, I’m not going to give you some long-winded rant about marathons and sprints — what I care about most is whether these surprise hot hitters are getting shots in the top or middle of the lineup. That’s what can make them valuable as short-term replacements for guys who hit the IL, and from there they might blossom into something even more exciting than that. It’s totally fine to grab Steven Kwan or Jeremy Peña (who are now ranked but may not be for long) at the expense of your last bench guy, especially in a shallow league.

 

• No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), and lineup context. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators. Unlike Nick, I’ll also look at other rankings as I prepare my own to get a feel for how my colleagues are valuing certain players, positions, or stats. I recommend trying as many of these things as you can until you find what you like.

 

• Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is really neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players (16 of the 30 second baseman I ranked in the preseason were eligible at two positions, with five more players being eligible at three positions). It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.

 

• On a similar note, I don’t really penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.

 

• If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!

 

Ranking Notes

 

Want more on how these rankings came together? Check out the podcast Hacks & Jacks featuring myself and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!

• Not a lot of movement in the top tier, and I don’t expect there to be much movement for a while barring major injury or a major transaction.

 

• Tiers 2 and 3 don’t have much movement either, with the exception of Byron Buxton, who I almost certainly ranked too low to start with. Even if he falls short of 20 steals, he can easily make up for it on a per-game basis. In shallower leagues where replacement level in the outfield is high, I’d be targeting Buxton as a “buy-high” if I can move a player outside my top-50 or top-60 overall players because a 130-game Buxton (which I realize is 30 more than he’s played in the last two seasons combined) is definitely a top-40 player.
• This ranking of Shohei Ohtani is just the hitter — in daily formats where he is both a hitter and pitcher, he’s my top overall player.

 

• Tier 4 saw a lot more movement, starting with Olson moving to the top of the three-headed first base monster. I might even move him up again if he continues to show the plate discipline he had last year and so far, so good.
• Two different speed guys fell a bit in this tier — Cedric Mullins dropped only because I had other guys I wanted to move up, and Marte fell because on a philosophical level I’m finding I care less and less about steals by the day.

 

• Tier 5, at this point, is a bunch of guys who might jump into Tier 4. I expect to dissolve this mini tier by the end of the month.

 

• Tiers 6 and 7 are where we start to see more and more volatility in the ranks, in large part because there’s a lot of talent in this range that can be tough to rank because of positional and statistical differences that still result in roughly the same value.
• Say what you want about his plate discipline, but Javier Báez is incredibly fun to watch. He seems like a different guy than the one we saw in New York at times last season with respect to his engagement, and for a guy like Javy, that makes a big difference.
• Seeing Alex Bregman look like pre-scandal Bregman is really encouraging, and if he keeps it up for the whole month he could easily move up another 10-20 spots.
• Is it really that hard to imagine Nelson Cruz driving in 90+ runners again hitting behind Juan Soto?
• I miss Fernando Tatis Jr. really bad, but even 300 plate appearances of him combined with a replacement-level player (or better yet, an above-replacement level player that you drafted) should still be an elite piece of your team.

 

• So in Tier 8, we learned that I believe in Seiya Suzuki now. I ranked him quite aggressively here, and to be fair, the last time I did this list I wasn’t quite sure where he’d be hitting and whether they’d let him play every day. So far, it seems like he’s going to hit towards the middle of the lineup and start on a daily basis, so I’m in.

 

• Jesse Winker dropped to Tier 9, but that’s in large part because their current roster construction suggests they intend to platoon him. I get why everyone wants to do this so badly—his career wRC+ against lefties is just 64 while he has crushed righties—but at some point just let him play. It is worth noting, though, that Seattle has faced four consecutive righties and ran the same top-four each time: Adam Frazier, Ty France, Jesse Winker, and Mitch Haniger.
• No, I don’t know what to do with Cody Bellinger. I’m not sure when I will.
• Randal Grichuk was a bench guy when I first made the list, so his vaulting to the top-100 isn’t as amazing as it sounds. Team context and opportunity play a big role in rankings, and Grichuk went from the worst situation (small-side of a platoon) to arguably one of the best (hitting in the middle of the lineup in Coors).

 

• Tier 10 is another one of those “will they or won’t they” tiers.  Will Jarred Kelenic prove he should play every day right now, or does he need a slower ramp-up? Will Yoán Moncada recover smoothly from his oblique strain?

 

• Don’t drop Akil Baddoo yet, but it was definitely not the start of the season I was hoping for. He’s in Tier 11 now, but his range of outcomes is insanely wide.
• Myles Straw will be a lot more useful than I thought if Steven Kwan and the rest of the Guardians continue to play so aggressively.

 

• It’s Tier 12 and I’m already falling for Ian Happ again. Even if he can just add 20 points to his batting average, he’ll become a lot more palatable as part of a Cubs lineup that suddenly looks a lot less terrible than it did a month ago.
• It’s been great to see Detroit commit to Spencer Torkelson as an everyday player right now. That gives me more confidence than his slow start could possibly take away at this point.

 

• Tier 13 is sort of a bummer, as it has a bunch of guys who dropped a long way, like DJ LeMahieu. I’m not quite sure what to make of him hitting fifth instead of first or second, but I guess it means more RBI? It also means fewer plate appearances, though, and for a guy who primarily contributes batting average, plate appearances matter. It’s weird, and this whole lineup construction in the Bronx has me scratching my head.
• Dropping Eugenio Suárez in these rankings seems extreme after just three games, but yuck — he looks just like the bad version of himself.

 

• Steven Kwan himself leads off for Tier 14, and in reality, I don’t expect a ton of Kwan over the course of the whole year in terms of power or speed, but he’ll put a ton of balls in play and that should give him a chance to win a permanent role in this lineup.
• Remember how excited we were for Andrew Vaughn last season? Is this what a post-hype prospect is?
• Jeremy Peña could maybe be a 20 home run, 10 stolen base shortstop with a .240-.250 batting average, and that’s a heckuva waiver wire find. It’s hard for a shortstop-only guy like this to make a big impact in standard Yahoo leagues that don’t use a middle infielder, but in all other formats of 12-teams or more, he’s at least worth adding to your watchlist.
• There’s a universe where Gio Urshela hits .300 with 20 home runs. I wonder if it’s this one.

 

And now, at long last, I present to you my FIRST in-season Hitter List:

 

Rank	Hitter	Position	Change
1	Trea TurnerT1	2B, SS	-
2	Juan Soto	OF	-
3	José Ramírez	3B	-
4	Bo Bichette	SS	+2
5	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	-1
6	Shohei Ohtani T2	DH	-1
7	Bryce Harper	OF	-
8	Kyle Tucker	OF	-
9	Rafael Devers	3B	+2
10	Mookie Betts	OF	+2
11	Mike Trout	OF	-1
12	Freddie Freeman	1B	+1
13	Ronald Acuña Jr.	OF	-4
14	Yordan Alvarez	OF	-
15	Manny Machado T3	3B	-
16	Ozzie Albies	2B	-
17	Luis Robert Jr.	OF	+1
18	Aaron Judge	OF	-1
19	Xander Bogaerts	SS	+2
20	Nick Castellanos	OF	-1
21	Teoscar Hernández	OF	+3
22	Tim Anderson	SS	-
23	Byron Buxton	OF	+9
24	Trevor Story T4	SS	-1
25	Matt Olson	1B	+3
26	Pete Alonso	1B	-
27	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	-
28	Starling Marte	OF	-8
29	Cedric Mullins	OF	-4
30	Marcus Semien	2B, SS	-
31	Whit Merrifield	2B, OF	-2
32	Austin Riley T5	3B	-1
33	Nolan Arenado	3B	+2
34	Wander Franco	SS	+3
35	Randy Arozarena	OF	+3
36	Eloy Jiménez	OF	+4
37	Tyler O’Neill	OF	+4
38	Javier Báez T6	2B, SS	+6
39	Corey Seager	SS	+6
40	José Abreu	1B	+2
41	George Springer	OF	-8
42	Salvador Perez	C	-8
43	Jose Altuve	2B	-4
44	Brandon Lowe	2B, OF	-1
45	Jorge Polanco	2B, SS	+3
46	Max Muncy	1B, 2B	-
47	Francisco Lindor	SS	-
48	Alex Bregman	3B	+9
49	J.T. Realmuto T7	C	-
50	Kris Bryant	3B, OF	+2
51	Will Smith	C	-1
52	Jared Walsh	1B	+12
53	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	-2
54	Ketel Marte	2B, OF	-1
55	J.D. Martinez	OF	-1
56	Carlos Correa	SS	-1
57	Adalberto Mondesi	3B, SS	-1
58	Bryan Reynolds	OF	+4
59	Joey Gallo	OF	+9
60	Franmil Reyes	DH	+5
61	Anthony Rendon	3B	-1
62	Kyle Schwarber	OF	+4
63	Nelson Cruz	DH	+14
64	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SS, OF	-28
65	Mitch Haniger T8	OF	-7
66	Jonathan India	2B	-5
67	Austin Meadows	OF	-
68	Josh Bell	1B	+6
69	Ryan Mountcastle	1B, OF	-6
70	Rhys Hoskins	1B	+3
71	Christian Yelich	OF	-2
72	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B, SS	-2
73	Yasmani Grandal	C	+2
74	Joey Votto	1B	+4
75	Seiya Suzuki	DH	+43
76	Hunter Renfroe	OF	+4
77	Trent Grisham	OF	+4
78	Tommy Edman	2B, OF	-6
79	Willson Contreras	C	+7
80	Jake Cronenworth	1B, 2B, SS	+7
81	C.J. Cron	1B	+8
82	Jesse Winker T9	OF	-23
83	Willy Adames	SS	-7
84	Avisaíl García	OF	-5
85	Chris Taylor	2B, SS, OF	+5
86	Dansby Swanson	SS	-2
87	Marcell Ozuna	OF	+5
88	Matt Chapman	3B	+5
89	Daulton Varsho	C, OF	+7
90	Ke’Bryan Hayes	3B	-2
91	Cody Bellinger	OF	-20
92	Josh Donaldson	3B	+7
93	Dylan Carlson	OF	+11
94	Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	+1
95	Anthony Rizzo	1B	+12
96	Alex Verdugo	OF	+6
97	Randal Grichuk		+UR
98	Julio Rodríguez	OF	+UR
99	Ryan McMahon	2B, 3B	+7
100	Jarred Kelenic T10	OF	-17
101	Yoán Moncada	3B	-19
102	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	OF	-1
103	Justin Turner	3B	-5
104	Trey Mancini	1B, OF	-7
105	Andrew Benintendi	OF	+10
106	Akil Baddoo T11	OF	-6
107	Adam Duvall	OF	+7
108	Yuli Gurriel	1B	+5
109	Eddie Rosario	OF	+8
110	Adolis García	OF	-7
111	Brendan Rodgers	2B, SS	-3
112	Eduardo Escobar	2B, 3B	+8
113	Myles Straw	OF	+12
114	Brandon Belt	1B	+12
115	Ty France	1B, 2B	-21
116	Charlie Blackmon T12	OF	+6
117	Keibert Ruiz	C	-12
118	Luis Urías	2B, 3B, SS	+5
119	Tommy Pham	OF	+10
120	Nathaniel Lowe	1B	+10
121	Ian Happ	OF	+11
122	Spencer Torkelson	3B	+18
123	Michael Brantley	OF	+10
124	Mitch Garver	C	-5
125	DJ LeMahieu T13	1B, 2B, 3B	-40
126	Brandon Crawford	SS	+2
127	Eugenio Suárez	3B, SS	-18
128	Harrison Bader	OF	-12
129	Amed Rosario	SS	-5
130	Gleyber Torres	SS	+18
131	Alex Kirilloff	1B, OF	-21
132	Mark Canha	OF	+3
133	Kolten Wong	2B	+9
134	Jorge Soler	OF	-22
135	Anthony Santander	OF	+14
136	Frank Schwindel	SS	+UR
137	Steven Kwan T14	OF	+UR
138	Jonathan Schoop	1B, 2B	+3
139	Luke Voit	1B	+4
140	Kiké Hernández	2B, OF	+7
141	Jo Adell	OF	-2
142	Robbie Grossman	OF	-31
143	Jeimer Candelario	3B	-6
144	Austin Hays	OF	-8
145	Andrew Vaughn	1B, OF	-11
146	AJ Pollock	OF	-19
147	Alejandro Kirk	C	+UR
148	Tyler Stephenson	C	-17
149	Jeremy Peña	SS	+UR
150	Luis Arraez	2B, 3B, SS	+UR

 

Photo by John McCoy | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)