The Out% leader heading into week 11 is Sonny Gray, whose sweeper has a 32.4% Out Rate. That is 14.1% above league average for that pitch. He takes over from Reed Garrett last week.
The top-10 overall out pitches in baseball includes three splitters – from Garrett, Bryce Miller, and Mark Leiter Jr. Jameson Taillon cracks the top-10 with a sweeper. The top-10 also features Bailey Falter’s sinker, Yimi García’s fastball, Derek Law’s slider, and Pedro Avila’s changeup.
Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.
Average Out%
Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.
Fastball (FF) – 16.6%
Slider (SL) – 18.1%
Curveball (CU) – 17.5%
Changeup (CH) – 19.7%
Sweeper (ST) – 18.3%
Sinker (SI) – 17.9%
Cutter (FC) – 16.2%
Splitter (FS) – 20.6%
Fastball Out% Leaders
As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.
Of the 13 pitchers listed among the top-10 in fastball Out Rate, all but Ryan Feltner, George Kirby, and Frankie Montas possess an ERA better than league average. Many of the pitchers on this list also feature other pitches that rank above league average in Out%, which also has led to great success.
Fastball Out% Leaders (16.6% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 23.9% |
| Trevor Williams | 23.6% |
| Logan Gilbert | 22% |
| Robert Suarez | 21.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 20.8% |
| Cade Smith | 20.5% |
| Cole Ragans, Shota Imanaga, Justin Verlander | 20.2% |
| Frankie Montas | 20.1% |
| Kyle Muller | 19.9% |
| Seth Lugo, George Kirby, Ryan Feltner | 19.7% |
Cole Ragans has an incredible fastball, and it has been arguably his best pitch this season. It has a .164 batting average against, as well as a 25% whiff rate and a 26% putaway rate. It ranks among the top-20 fastballs according to our PLV leaderboard, and what makes it so great is its movement. Ragans gets 13.5 inches of arm side break and 16.6 inches of induced vertical break. His 5.5 inches of horizontal break above average is tied for ninth most in baseball. Ragans also gets 74% more break on his fastball than league average, making it insanely hard to hit when combined with an average velocity of 96 MPH. Just take a look at how difficult it is for hitters to connect:
Here is 2 minutes of Cole Ragans striking out guys swinging on his 4-Seam Fastball
Source: MLBAM pic.twitter.com/VXgbwsGnYr
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 5, 2024
Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.
Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders
Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.
Cutter Out% Leaders (16.2% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 23.5% |
| Nestor Cortes | 21.6% |
| Dean Kremer | 21.2% |
| Zach Eflin | 20.9% |
| Emmanuel Clase | 20.3% |
| Corbin Burnes | 19.4% |
| Tyler Anderson | 19.3% |
| Bryse Wilson | 18.9% |
| Garrett Crochet | 18.8% |
| Jesse Chavez | 18.4% |
Sinker Out% Leaders (17.9% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| George Kirby, Tarik Skubal | 23.5% |
| Jose Urena | 22.8% |
| José Soriano, Zack Wheeler | 22.7% |
| Ben Lively, Miles Mikolas | 21.6% |
| Ranger Suárez | 21.3% |
| Javier Assad | 21.2% |
| Bryce Miller | 21.1% |
| Jose Quintana | 20.7% |
| Ryan Thompson, Zach Eflin | 20.5% |
| Michael Soroka, Mitch Keller | 20.4% |
Splitter Out% Leaders (20.6% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Reed Garrett | 30.3% |
| Bryce Miller | 28.7% |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 28.2% |
| Fernando Cruz | 26.8% |
| Cal Quantrill | 25.8% |
| Tanner Houck | 24.2% |
| Zack Wheeler, Joe Ryan, Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 22.1% |
| Hunter Harvey | 22% |
| Shota Imanaga | 21.6% |
| Paul Skenes | 21.5% |
Zach Eflin’s cutter has been a great out pitch this season, though he also has a sinker and curveball that rank among the best in Out% as well. As for his cutter, he has induced just a 17% whiff rate, but because he is able to locate it so well, batters have a tough time turning on it and making good contact. Eflin has a 111 plvLoc+ score on his cutter, and it grades as Quality Pitch according to our PLV data.
George Kirby possesses one of the best fastballs when it comes to inducing outs, but also possesses a top sinker. Kirby’s sinker ranks as the 13th best according to our PLV leaderboard. He averages 95 MPH on the pitch, which is above league average. He also tosses it with above league average extension, IVB, arm side break, and adjusted vertical approach angle, while also locating it extremely well. Check it out in action here:
George Kirby, Painted 96mph Sinker. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/PntblhjTCV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2024
Paul Skenes’s splitter has been dubbed a “splinker” because of its similarities to a sinker. It has been nearly unhittable so far, possessing a .067 BAA, a 40% whiff rate, and a 34% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a splitter in at least 25 plate appearances, those stats rank third, 13th, and second overall. Skenes gets a ton of arm-side break, and has an above average adjusted approach angle, helping to fool batters, especially when thrown in a sequence with his fastball. On top of all of that, he has a 115 plvLoc+, which is among the best. And it grades as a Quality Pitch according to PLV. You have to see it to believe it:
Paul Skenes is simply unhittable. This nasty splitter was 96 mph.#LetsGoBucs #RepDetroit #MLB pic.twitter.com/9NeHJoAkU7
— Power Play MLB (@PowerPlayMLB) May 29, 2024
For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.
Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders
Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.
Slider Out% Leaders (18.1% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 26.8% |
| Reynaldo López | 24.9% |
| Chris Sale | 24.8% |
| Reid Detmers | 24% |
| Hunter Strickland | 23.1% |
| Andrew Kittredge | 23% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | 22.7% |
| Jared Jones | 22.5% |
| Michael Grove | 21.9% |
| Carlos Rodón, Ronel Blanco | 21.8% |
Curveball Out% Leaders (17.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 26.9% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 23.7% |
| Tyler Glasnow | 22.9% |
| Zach Eflin | 22.1% |
| Triston McKenzie | 21.5% |
| Tim Herrin | 21% |
| Charlie Morton | 20.5% |
| Yusei Kikuchi, Seth Lugo | 19.7% |
| Jordan Montgomery | 19.4% |
| Ranger Suárez | 18.9% |
Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.3% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 32.4% |
| Andrew Abbott | 26.6% |
| Mitch Keller | 25.9% |
| Bryan Hudson | 25.8% |
| Luis Severino, Michael Kelly | 24.2% |
| Joe Ryan | 23.8% |
| Justin Slaten | 23.5% |
| Nick Pivetta | 23.3% |
| Aaron Civale, Brandon Pfaadt | 23% |
| José Suarez | 22.8% |
According to Statcast’s run value, Simeon Woods Richardson ties for the sixth-highest run value on a slider for pitchers who have thrown one in at least 25 PAs. His slider does not have a ton of vertical or horizontal movement but he gets over six and a half feet of extension and throws it 86 MPH on average – above league average for sliders. Batters have struggled against it, hitting just .185 with a 21% whiff rate. Here is a look at it:
Simeon Woods Richardson, Filthy 89mph Slider…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/ceX4LFfgps
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 25, 2024
Our PLV data grades Yusei Kikuchi’s curveball as the eight best in baseball. And when you see the numbers, you understand why:
He throws it hard, gets a ton of extension, and creates well-above-average IVB and ASB. Those factors, combined with his approach angle, make his curveball one of the highest graded curves according to PLV. Not only that, but he locates the ball well, to a point where even if he misses the zone, he can still fool batters into swinging:
Yusei Kikuchi, Dirty 84mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/LggCikLqA2
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2024
Joe Ryan has had a much better season so far than last, and a major reason for that has been improving his sweeper. He added velocity and spin, with the results being an improved BAA and putaway rate, and a 31% whiff rate – nearly identical to last season. Look at the difference in his data from 2023 to 2024:
Across the board, this is a better pitch this season. Not only has he gotten better extension, but he has added more vertical movement and has located it better. It grades as the eighth-best sweeper according to our PLV leaderboard. Here is a look at it in action:
Joe Ryan, Uncatchable 83mph Sweeper. 🥏 pic.twitter.com/5DYE8GinlO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2024
Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.
- Kevin Guasman
- Michael Wacha
- Frankie Montas
- Cooper Criswell
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Grayson Rodriguez
- Bryce Elder
Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.7% League Average
Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:
Changeup Out% Leaders (19.7% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Michael King | 25.8% |
| Michael Wacha | 24.1% |
| Ryan Weathers | 23.9% |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 23.4% |
| Tarik Skubal, Cooper Criswell | 23.3% |
| Ranger Suárez | 23.2% |
| Griffin Canning | 22.9% |
| Logan Webb | 22.3% |
| Tanner Bibee, Cristopher Sánchez | 22.1% |
| Austin Gomber | 21.9% |
Few things are certain in life: death, taxes, and Logan Webb having one of the best changeups in baseball. Webb’s changeup is his bread and butter, and although it has not performed as well as last season by BAA, whiff%, or putaway%, it grades as a top-four changeup according to Statcast’s run value, and a top-10 changeup according to our PLV and Out% leaderboards. This pitch has some insane vertical movement, possessing the 11th most vertical inches of movement, the 10th-most vertical inches of movement versus average, and the seventh most amount of drop versus average. Take a look at why this pitch is so successful:
Logan Webb, Filthy 87mph Changeup. 😷 pic.twitter.com/4DY4jFEdnG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 5, 2024
Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:
Pitchers to Target Based on Out%
Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches.