Out% for Fantasy Baseball Week 10

Taylor Tarter breaks down the Out% leaderboard for Week 10

The Out% leader heading into week 10 remains Reed Garrett, whose splitter has a 32.7% Out Rate. That is 12.4% above league average for that pitch. His splitter Out Rate is down 2% from last week.

Sinkers from Bailey Falter and Sonny Gray make the top-10 pitches in Out%. Sonny Gray’s sweeper also makes the top-10. In fact, his sweeper is the second-best out pitch in baseball, and his sinker is fourth best.

Other pitches in the top-10 overall Out% include splitters from Bryce Miller and Mark Leiter Jr., Derek Law’s slider, Pedro Avila’s changeup, and fastballs from Alex Faedo and Greg Weissert.

Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.


Average Out%


Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.

Fastball (FF) – 16.6%

Slider (SL) – 18.1%

Curveball (CU) – 17.9%

Changeup (CH) – 19.5%

Sweeper (ST) – 18.1%

Sinker (SI) – 18.1%

Cutter (FC) – 16.2%

Splitter (FS) – 20.3%


Fastball Out% Leaders


As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.

Of the 13 pitchers who rank among the top 10 in fastball Out%, just three have an ERA worse than league average, one of whom is George Kirby, whose ERA is one point below league average. Having an elite fastball is extremely important to a pitcher’s success.

Fastball Out% Leaders (16.6% League Average)

Among pitchers who have thrown the league average number of fastballs, Bailey Falter leads in fastball Out Rate. He leans on his fastball, tossing it 51% of the time, overwhelmingly to righty batters. It has a .177 batting average against, a 20% whiff rate, and a 21% putaway rate. Our PLV data grades his fastball at just above league average. Falter gets such great results on his fastball partially because he gets insane release extension and above-average induced vertical break, with an approach angle above league average. He also throws it up in the zone, and batters have a hard time picking it up, like Willy Adames here:

That all helps compensate for the low velocity and explains why his fastball can fool batters as much as it does.

Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.


Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders


Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.

Cutter Out% Leaders (16.2% League Average)

Sinker Out% Leaders (18.1% League Average)

Splitter Out% Leaders (20.3% League Average)

Emmanuel Clase has an insane cutter, which he basically throws in place of a fastball. It has a .134 BAA, a 29% whiff rate, and a 23% putaway rate. Our PLV data grades it as the third-best cutter in baseball. He throws it nearly 99 MPH and gets a ton of induced vertical break. That has led to swings and misses like this:

Ranger Suárez doesn’t just have one of the best changeups in baseball—he has one of the best sinkers as well. His sinker has induced a one-degree launch angle, helping Suarez to a 55% GB rate – fifth best in baseball among qualified starting pitchers. It has a low whiff rate but a high putaway rate and Out%, meaning he may not strike out many batters with it, but he still gets outs via the sinker. PLV Location+ loves what he is doing, and our PLV metric grades his sinker as well above average, bordering on a quality pitch.

Bryce Miller ranks third in Out% for splitters, a new pitch he added this year. It has essentially replaced his changeup as his primary out pitch for lefty batters. It has 40.5 inches of vertical movement, the most of all qualified pitchers who throw a splitter. He also spots it well, which makes it extremely difficult to hit. Here is a look at it in action:

For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.


Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders


Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.

Slider Out% Leaders (18.1% League Average)

Curveball Out% Leaders (17.9% League Average)

Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.1% League Average)

Chris Sale’s slider is one of the best in baseball, not just at inducing outs, but across the board. Among pitchers who have thrown a slider in at least 50 PAs, his .141 BAA and 28% whiff rate are fourth best, and his 40% whiff rate is ninth best. Check out this absurd movement:

Mitchell Parker has been a bright spot for a struggling Nationals club, and his curveball has been particularly effective at getting batters out. It has a ton of movement:

He gets nearly seven feet of extension, which helps him get above-average arm side and induced vertical break. He also locates it extremely well, which has helped it become one of the best curveballs at getting outs.

According to our PLV leaderboard, Andrew Abbott has the 15th-best sweeper in baseball. It has a .234 BAA, but a .171 xBAA, meaning he has been a little unlucky with batters picking up hits against it. Considering the break on it and that it grades as a Quality Pitch, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his sweeper usage, strikeout rate, and Out% all start to increase. We could be seeing a lot more of these:

Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.


Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.5% League Average


Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:

Changeup Out% Leaders (19.5% League Average)

Grayson Rodriguez’s best pitch has arguably been his changeup, which has been his main out pitch against lefty batters. But he uses it to get RHB out too:

It has a .191 BAA, a 33% whiff rate, and a 25% putaway rate. It is top 20 in vertical inches of movement and drop versus league average among pitchers who have thrown a changeup at least 100 times.

Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:


Pitchers to Target Based on Out%


Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches.

  1. Zack Wheeler
  2. Sonny Gray
  3. Shota Imanaga
  4. Ranger Suárez
  5. Seth Lugo
  6. Zach Eflin
  7. Bryce Miller
  8. Mitch Keller
  9. Tyler Anderson
  10. Bailey Ober

Taylor Tarter

Taylor is a fantasy baseball champion that has been playing for over a decade. Tune into his podcast, Fastball Fantasy Baseball, every Wednesday for in depth analysis making sabermetrics friendly to the everyday fantasy player.

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