It is clear this season that Sonny Gray has far and away the best sweeper in baseball when it comes to getting batters out. It also has been the best overall out pitch in baseball for over 10 weeks. That alone is impressive, but consider this: nearly a third of the time he throws his sweeper, it results in an out. Currently, it has a 32.6% Out Rate, down slightly from the last update. However, that is 13.9% higher than league average Out% for sweepers, and 4.3% higher than the next-best overall Out Rate on any pitch.
The other pitches in the top 10 of Out% include a slider from Derek Law, as well as sweepers from Mitch Keller and Bryan Hudson. Changeups from Jason Adam, Pedro Avila, Merrill Kelly, and Raisel Iglesias, along with splitters from Bryce Miller and Justin Martinez also land in the top-10 overall.
Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.
Average Out%
Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.
Fastball (FF) – 16.5%
Cutter (FC) – 16.4%
Sinker (SI) – 17.8%
Splitter (FS) – 20.5%
Slider (SL) – 18.2%
Curveball (CU) – 16.8%
Sweeper (ST) – 18.7%
Changeup (CH) – 19.3%
Fastball Out% Leaders
As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.
Of the 11 pitchers ranking in the top-10 of fastball Out%, Beeks, Falter, Montas, and Feltner have worse ERAs than the league average of 4.11. While their fastballs may be effective out pitches, Beeks and Montas especially lack other effective secondary out pitches, which limit their upside. Of the pitchers below, Robert Suarez’s 2.54 ERA ranks as the best, with a large part of his success coming from his extremely effective fastball.
Fastball Out% Leaders (16.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 21.6% |
| Tobias Myers | 21.5% |
| Bowden Francis | 21.2% |
| Cody Bradford | 20.8% |
| Frankie Montas | 20.5% |
| George Kirby | 20% |
| Bailey Falter | 19.9% |
| Robert Suarez | 19.8% |
| Logan Gilbert, Jalen Beeks | 19.3% |
| Ryan Feltner | 19.2% |
353 different pitchers have thrown a fastball this season, and for most of the year, Nathan Eovaldi’s has been the best at getting batters out. It has a .192 batting average against and a 23% strikeout rate, good for second and 14th best among pitchers who have thrown a fastball in at least 250 plate appearances. Among pitchers who have thrown a fastball at least 750 times, Eovaldi ranks third in horizontal inches of movement compared to league average. That movement, plus an excellent 105 plvLoc+ have been keys to his success at getting batters out with his four seamer. He also throws it faster than league average and with more arm-side break than league average, which make it difficult for batters to read and hit.
Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.
- Jose Suarez
- Brady Singer
- Kyle Hendricks
- Aroldis Chapman
- Kenta Maeda
- Aaron Civale
Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders
Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.
Cutter Out% Leaders (16.4% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 20.7% |
| Kutter Crawford | 20.2% |
| Corbin Burnes | 19.8% |
| Nestor Cortes | 19.7% |
| Ryne Nelson | 19.5% |
| Jameson Taillon | 19.3% |
| Zach Eflin, Calvin Faucher | 19.2% |
| Nick Martinez | 19% |
| Taj Bradley | 18.8% |
| Garrett Crochet | 18.7% |
Despite lacking eye-popping numbers, Ryne Nelson’s cutter has been one of the best cutters when it comes to getting batters out. This could be as a result of pitching to contact, considering it has a .319 BAA. He also has a below average 7.6 K/9 rate, and a solid 72% LOB rate which both support the idea that he does not need to strike batters out with his cutter to get them out. Still, he tosses it faster than league average, with near elite extension. His arm-side break, induced vertical break, and plvLoc+ on his cutter all rank above league average too. All of that combines to make it one of the best cutters in terms of Out%. Here is a look at it in action:
https://twitter.com/dfeely14/status/1824591855670927689
Sinker Out% Leaders (17.8% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 25.3% |
| Tarik Skubal | 23.2% |
| Miles Mikolas | 22.6% |
| Bryce Miller | 22.5% |
| Ben Lively | 21.6% |
| Brandon Pfaadt, Ranger Suarez | 21.4% |
| Dylan Floro, Tyler Rogers | 20.8% |
| Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Seth Lugo | 20.5% |
| Jose Urena, Zach Eflin | 20.3% |
| Patrick Corbin | 20.2% |
For all of his troubles this season, Patrick Corbin is one of the best pitchers at getting batters out with a sinker. Similar to Ryne Nelson’s cutter, Corbin’s sinker appears to result in outs mostly from contact. It has a .331 BAA, meaning batters are connecting regularly, but it also has a three degree launch angle, and Corbin’s 47% groundball rate is his best since 2019 – arguably his best year. He gets near-elite extension, and above average iVB, with an above average plvLoc+ on his sinker. Unfortunately for Corbin, the Nationals have the third lowest team defensive fWAR, meaning not only could his sinker be better overall with a better defense, but Corbin’s ERA could be better too. In fact, his 4.18 xFIP is nearly a run and a half lower than his current 5.48 ERA. Corbin has some good stuff, especially his sinker, but seems to have been quite unlucky this season.
Splitter Out% Leaders (20.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Justin Martinez | 28.3% |
| Bryce Miller | 26.5% |
| Reed Garrett | 25.4% |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 25.3% |
| Jhoan Duran | 23.7% |
| Kutter Crawford | 23.5% |
| Tanner Houck | 23% |
| Bowden Francis | 22.9% |
| Fernando Cruz | 22.3% |
| Shota Imanaga | 22.2% |
Kutter Crawford not only owns one of the best cutters at getting batters out, but one of the best splitters too. Among pitchers who have thrown a splitter in at least 50 PAs, Crawford’s .180 BAA, 41% whiff rate, 39% K rate, and 28% putaway rate rank 18th, 11th, 10th, and sixth best. There are no other starting pitchers better than Crawford in all four categories. His splitter also seems to move the opposite direction that most splitters go, which may throw batters off and could be a reason why it is such a successful out pitch. Take a look:
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1778204871361184203
For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.
Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders
Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.
Slider Out% Leaders (18.2% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 23% |
| Ryan Helsley | 22.6% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 22.5% |
| Andrew Chafin | 21.7% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 21.5% |
| Ryan Walker, Hunter Gaddis | 21.4% |
| Carlos Rodon | 21.2% |
| Ronel Blanco | 21% |
| Andrew Kittredge, Jared Jones, Simeon Woods Richardson, Andres Munoz, Keider Montero | 20.9% |
| Dylan Cease | 20.7% |
We have not focused much on relievers this season, but fantasy managers seem to be overlooking Ryan Walker, and that is a mistake. He has six saves on the season, and should continue to earn more, especially with his absolutely filthy slider. It has a .159 BAA, a 39% whiff rate, a 40% K rate, and a 29% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a slider in at least 100 PAs, only Andrew Chafin can tout better numbers in all four categories. Walker gets some absurd horizontal movement, the second most horizontal movement compared to league average among pitchers who have tossed a slider at least 500 times. It is no wonder batters have a hard time connecting with it when you see it:
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1786112213779935483
Curveball Out% Leaders (16.8% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Blake Snell | 24.4% |
| Tim Herrin | 23.1% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 22.3% |
| Triston McKenzie | 21.3% |
| Zach Eflin | 21.1% |
| Jameson Taillon | 20.8% |
| Framber Valdez | 20% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 19.9% |
| Pierce Johnson | 19.3% |
| Seth Lugo, Jose Quintana | 19.2% |
Jose Quintana has had his ups and downs this season, but has been on a roll lately, and his curveball has been a key to that success. Its .265 BAA is the second highest among his five offerings, but it has a 25% whiff rate and a 19% putaway rate. Plus, nearly a fifth of the time he throws it, it results in an out. Quintana tosses his curveball with above average iVB, arm-side break, while also locating it well. Those factors combine to make it one of the best curveballs in the league.
Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.7% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 32.6% |
| Mitch Keller | 27.7% |
| Jameson Taillon | 25% |
| Kyle Gibson | 24.8% |
| Joey Estes | 24.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | 23% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 22.9% |
| Luis Severino | 22.2% |
| Tyson Miller, Aaron Civale | 21.8% |
| Colin Rea | 20.9% |
Luis Severino has a ridiculous sweeper, with a .150 BAA, a 36% whiff rate, a 40% K rate, and a 23% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a sweeper in at least 100 PAs, only Sonny Gray can boast better stats in all four categories. Severino’s sweeper relies on his above-average velocity and horizontal movement to induce swings-and-misses. He creates 13% more break than league average as you can see here:
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1830768470113312901
Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.
- Michael Wacha
- Justin Verlander
- Nick Martinez
- Carlos Rodon
- Kyle Gibson
- Nick Pivetta
- Frankie Montas
- Sean Manaea
- Taj Bradley
- Kevin Gausman
Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.3% League Average
Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:
Changeup Out% Leaders (19.3% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Michael King | 24.3% |
| Michael Wacha | 24% |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 23.8% |
| Jose Berrios | 23.7% |
| Nick Martinez, Andrew Heaney | 23.5% |
| Logan Webb | 22.8% |
| Bailey Ober | 22.6% |
| Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal | 22.4% |
| Cooper Criswell | 22.1% |
| Michael Lorenzen | 22% |
According to our PLV data, Michael Wacha has the second best changeup, behind only Yennier Cano. Wacha’s changeup grades as a Quality Pitch, possessing near elite extension, and elite location. It has a .177 BAA, a 33% whiff rate, a 32% K rate, and a 23% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a changeup in at least 100 PAs, nobody can claim to be better in all four categories. Wacha gets a ton of vertical movement, including 10% more vertical drop than league average. Being able to change planes vertically and horizontally with his changeup has led to it becoming not just one of the best changeups in the league, but one of the best out pitches in the league as well. Here is a look at it in game:
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1774936514192904295
Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:
Pitchers to Target Based on Out%
Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches. Since the trade deadline has passed in many fantasy leagues, these are a few pitchers to target on waivers.