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Out% for Fantasy Baseball Week 27

Taylor Tarter reviews the latest Out% update for Week 27

Taylor Tarter
Fantasy 9/23/2024

Sonny Gray very likely will finish out the year with the best out pitch in baseball. His sweeper has resulted in an out nearly a third of the time he tosses it. Seeing as this is the last week in the fantasy season for most leagues, this will be the last weekly Out% update. This update will not include injured players, much like the Out% updates throughout the season, so despite Gray’s 32% Out Rate on his sweeper, it will not feature on the leaderboard. Among healthy pitchers, Justin Martinez ranks atop the list of the best Out Rates, with a 29.2% rate on his splitter.

The rest of top 10 out pitches include sliders from Emmanuel Clase and Derek Law, Mitch Keller’s sweeper, Bryce Miller’s splitter, Mitch Spence’s curveball, and Greg Weissert’s fastball. It also features changeups from Raisel Iglesias, Jason Adam, and Pedro Avila

Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.

Average Out%

Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.

Fastball (FF) – 16.5%

Cutter (FC) – 16.3%

Sinker (SI) – 17.8%

Splitter (FS) – 20.7%

Slider (SL) – 18.3%

Curveball (CU) – 16.8%

Sweeper (ST) – 18.7%

Changeup (CH) – 19.4%

Fastball Out% Leaders

As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.

Of the 14 pitchers in the top-10 of fastball Out%, four have an ERA worse than the league average 4.09 ERA. Nearly all of the pitchers who have a high fastball Out% and an above average ERA also possess other pitches with high Out Rates, reinforcing the correlation between ERA and fastball Out%.

Fastball Out% Leaders (16.5% League Average)

Cody Bradford has locked down a rotation spot in Texas with a rash of injuries plaguing their starters. He has pitched mostly well aside from two clunkers. But a major reason for his success has been his ability to get batters out with his fastball. It has a .177 batting average against, a 21% whiff rate, a 24% strikeout rate, and a 20% putaway rate. Among the nearly 200 pitchers who have thrown a fastball in at least 100 PAs, only nine pitchers can claim better numbers in all four categories. Bradford averages under 90 MPH on his fastball, but thanks to elite extension, induced vertical break, and location, he can make up for the lack of velocity.

Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.

Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders

Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.

Cutter Out% Leaders (16.3% League Average)

Nick Martinez has an absolutely absurd cutter, ranking seventh on our PLV leaderboard list for cutters despite average velocity. Martinez throws his cutter with elite iVB, and a 113 plvLoc+, leading to a 5.53 PLV grade – a Quality Pitch. He gets a ton of vertical movement compared to league average, with 3.9 inches of vertical movement versus league average and 15% more rise than average.

Sinker Out% Leaders (17.8% League Average)

Ben Lively’s sinker has a .223 BAA, a 13% whiff rate, a 25% K rate, and a 19% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a sinker in at least 200 PAs, only Lively, Logan Webb, Sean Manaea, and Erick Fedde rank inside the top 10 in all four categories. Lively tosses his sinker with elite extension, which makes up for below average velocity. He also gets above average rise and locates the ball extremely well, which help make his sinker more effective.

Splitter Out% Leaders (20.7% League Average)

Justin Martinez has not picked up a save since September 3, but his splitter alone should earn him more save opportunities, considering it has been one of the most effective out pitches in the league this season. According to our PLV leaderboard, Martinez owns the third best splitter in baseball. It grades as a Quality Pitch with a 5.61 PLV score. Martinez’s splitter has a .077 BAA, a 55% whiff rate, a 68% K rate, and a 37% putaway rate. Those rank first, third, first, and first respectively among pitchers who have thrown a splitter in at least 50 PAs. While most pitchers try to create a lot of spin, Martinez has found success throwing his splitter with very little spin. In fact, among pitchers who have thrown a splitter at least 100 times, his has the eighth lowest spin rate. Take a look:

For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.

Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders

Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.

Slider Out% Leaders (18.3% League Average)

There are few pitchers with a better slider than Marcus Stroman in terms of Out%. His has been one of the best nearly the entire season. A key for Stroman has been the 2.9 inches of vertical movement versus league average he has been able to create on his slider. His adjusted vertical approach angle leans slightly flatter than league average, which has made it more difficult for hitters to barrel up. Stroman’s has induced a three degree launch angle with his slider, contributing to his 48% groundball rate. That would rank seventh best in the league if he had enough innings to qualify, despite being the lowest GB% of his career. Here, you can see why hitters have had such a hard time with Stroman’s slider:

Curveball Out% Leaders (16.8% League Average)

Spencer Arrighetti has experienced some struggles this season, but that is no fault of his curveball, one of the best in baseball. It has a solid 5.20 PLV score, which is slightly below a Quality Pitch grade, but if he could improve his location, it would grade much better. Arrighetti’s curveball has a .162 BAA, a 42% whiff rate, a 46% K rate, and a 32% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a curveball in at least 100 PAs, nobody can claim better stats in all four categories. He ranks seventh, fourth, second, and first in those categories respectively. Arrighetti’s bread and butter has been the horizontal movement on his curve, where he has created 2.2 more inches of movement than league average. Considering he also gets elite extension, it is no wonder batters have had such a hard time making contact. Here is a look at it in action:

Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.7% League Average)

Jameson Taillon has had an absolutely filthy sweeper this season. It has a .184 BAA, a 32% whiff rate, a 28% K rate, and a 19% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a sweeper in at least 100 PAs, only Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Sonny Gray have better numbers in all four categories. This has arguably been Taillon’s best season, and a huge part of it has been the success of his sweeper. He tosses it with elite location and nearly elite extension, and it has ultimately graded as a Quality Pitch. Take a look at it here:

Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.

Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.4% League Average

Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:

Changeup Out% Leaders (19.4% League Average)

Nick Martinez has a solid cutter, but he also tosses a devastating changeup. Interestingly, his cutter grades better according to our PLV data, but his changeup performs much better by other metrics. It has a .193 BAA, a 41% whiff rate, a 33% K rate, and a 23% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a changeup in at least 100 PAs, only Luke Weaver is better in all four categories. Check out Martinez’s wicked changeup here:

Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:

Pitchers to Target Based on Out%

Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches. Since the trade deadline has passed in many fantasy leagues, these are a few pitchers to target on waivers.

  1. Jameson Taillon
  2. Nick Martinez

Taylor Tarter

Taylor is a fantasy baseball champion that has been playing for over a decade. Tune into his podcast, Fastball Fantasy Baseball, every Wednesday for in depth analysis making sabermetrics friendly to the everyday fantasy player.

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