As we approach the start of September, the playoff picture has started to crystallize for most teams. You can split the league into three groups: likely playoff teams (above 66.7% chance of making the playoffs), teams on the margin (33.3-66.7% chance of making the playoffs), and unlikely playoff teams (under 33.3% chance of making the playoffs). At the start of the season, Fangraphs gave just 6 teams playoff odds large enough to qualify as likely playoff teams, while 12 teams were on the margin and 12 teams were unlikely to make the playoffs. Today, most teams are either likely or unlikely to make the playoffs, while six teams sit on the margin: the three teams competing to win the AL West, the Padres and Diamondbacks fighting for an NL Wild Card, and the Cleveland Guardians. PECOTA mostly agrees, but actually thinks the playoff picture is even clearer, moving the Guardians to the likely playoff team tier and the Diamondbacks to unlikely. With that in mind, and playoff-eligible rosters mostly fixed, let’s take a look at the offenses who are likely to be playing into October through the lens of their swing decisions.
Here at Pitcher List, we have a suite of PLV metrics to analyze every pitch in a baseball game. Decision Value (DV) is our hitter swing decision metric. It takes inputs like pitch velocity, location, and movement, and tells us whether the hitter made a good decision to swing or take a particular pitch. This isn’t quite as simple as plate discipline; swinging at a Logan Webb sinker and pounding it into the ground is a bad outcome even if the pitch was a strike.
Instead, Decision Value rewards hitters for swinging at pitches they should be able to hit hard, and for taking pitches they’re unlikely to do much with. The flip side is that Decision Value punishes hitters if they don’t swing at pitches they should be doing damage on or swing at pitches that are unlikely to generate quality contact. You can find a much more thorough introduction to PLV metrics and Decision Value here.
Rays – 100.0% Playoff Chance
The Rays’ offense is led by Junior Caminero, although Yandy Díaz isn’t to be underestimated. Caminero is an aggressive hitter, although he’s tamped his swing rate down a bit this season; I wrote more about him just last week. Diaz seems underrated to me, perhaps because he doesn’t put up the flashier counting stats that Caminero does. Diaz leads the Rays in DV, though, with a 115 DV. He reaches that number by being above average in his decision-making both in and out of the zone (101 zDV, 107 oDV). Diaz swings at 66.5% of strikes while chasing only 28.5% of balls, yielding a very strong 38.0% zSwing-oSwing. Second on the team in DV is Taylor Walls. Walls hasn’t had much success at the plate, but his swing decisions are barely keeping his head above water. His main strength is not chasing, especially the worst pitches. While his 24.2% chase rate is a career high for Walls, he’s only chased 3.1% of waste pitches (1.7% for his career). Masyn Winn, a reasonable comp for Walls at the plate, chases at about the same rate overall but has never chased fewer than 4.4% of waste pitches in a season.
The Rays’ lineup is full of players who make above-average swing decisions, even if there aren’t any outliers. Liam Hicks, Ryan Vilade, Victor Mesa Jr, Cedric Mullins, and Jonathan Aranda are all above-average decision-makers at the plate. Hicks had a particularly strong start to the season in terms of swing decisions, but has lost some in-zone aggression and gained some chase as the season has progressed. Mesa is a super aggressive hitter, offsetting a 33.3% chase rate with a 75.8% zone swing rate. By our swing aggression metric, Mesa isn’t quite Ezequiel Tovar, but he swings at 7.9% more pitches than you’d expect based on what pitchers are giving him. That’s good for 41st out of 426 hitters who have seen at least 400 plate appearances. Ultimately, the Rays have a wide variety of hitters, many of whom make relatively good swing decisions, even if they do so in different ways.
Yankees – 100.0% Playoff Chance
The Yankees offense has undergone dramatic changes this season, largely based on who is healthy at any given moment. They’ve also made trade acquisitions, promoted prospects to everyday jobs, and cut bait on underperforming veterans. The result has been an offense that ranks 12th in baseball by wRC+ after leading MLB in that metric in 2025 and tying for first with the Dodgers in 2024. Aaron Judge’s health is the most important question for the Yankees. Even with Judge putting up his worst rate stats since 2021, he’s been the best hitter on the team on a per-plate-appearance basis. Ben Rice is only a bit behind Judge, alternating Judge-ian and below-average months since May.
Unlike the Rays, the Yankees have a type. Five Yankees who have seen 1,000 pitches or more have DVs of 100 or higher. All of them have sub-100 zDVs and over 100 oDVs. Oddly, the only Yankee who has both a zDV and oDV above 100 is Anthony Volpe, and it seems very unlikely that he’ll be on the playoff roster. Rice and Judge both chase under 26% of pitches while swinging at 64-65% of strikes. Trent Grisham is the most selective on the roster, swinging at under 60% of strikes but chasing only 18.8% of the time. Luis García Jr. is a stark departure from the standard Yankees approach; that may have made him a little more attractive if they were trying to add some diversity to the lineup. Putting the entire team together, the Yankees rank 25th in swing rate, 24th in zone swing rate, and chase the 22nd most pitches in the game.
Red Sox – 98.5% Playoff Chance
Boston’s struggles at the start of the season are fully in the rearview mirror. Since June 1st, the Red Sox have added 71.5 percentage points to their playoff chances and now stand as a virtual lock to win one of the AL wild cards. Despite their resurgence, the Red Sox have actually fallen 5 games short of their Pythagorean record after being 3 games behind on June 1st. While the main explanation for their success is improved pitching, there have also been many changes to the Red Sox lineup.
The Red Sox traded their two most aggressive hitters in the zone at the deadline, moving Marcelo Mayer for bullpen help and Carlos Narváez as part of the Adley Rutschman package. These aren’t the most aggressive Red Sox hitters overall, though, as both Ceddanne Rafaela and Trevor Story chase more than necessary to make up the difference. Rafaela and the currently rehabbing Roman Anthony are polar opposites when it comes to their approaches. Rafaela is fourth among qualified major league hitters with a 56.6% swing rate. If he had played enough to qualify, Anthony would rank 3rd from last with a 37.2% swing rate. The best hitter on the team has been Willson Contreras, whose 155 wRC+ is second in the majors behind the otherworldly Yordan Alvarez.
One unifying feature of the Red Sox offense is that the new, unsung heroes nearly universally make good swing decisions. Andruw Monasterio, Nick Sogard, Jahmai Jones, Mickey Gasper, Anthony Seigler, and Eli White all have DVs above 100. Like their rivals in New York, this batch of Red Sox hitters all make their money by not chasing outside the zone. Every one of them has an oDV above 100, while only Monasterio and White have zDVs of 100 or better. As a team, the Red Sox have the 8th-highest chase rate, but that’s heavily influenced by Rafaela, Story, and Jarren Duran. Those players all have DVs below 85 and, for Duran and Story, it hasn’t been working out to their benefit.
White Sox – 78.7% Playoff Chance
The White Sox are the biggest upstart story of the season thanks to a superb offense. Their 641 runs lead the American League by 26, while their 597 runs allowed are middle of the pack in the junior circuit. This is a lineup with every type of player you can imagine. Munetaka Murakami is highly selective at the plate, swinging at only 40.2% of pitches. He rarely makes contact when he does swing, with a 60.7% contact rate that is nearly 5 percentage points worse than second. He absolutely crushes the ball when he does hit it, though. The hitter with the second-worst contact rate in baseball is Murakami’s teammate Colson Montgomery. Montgomery swings at about 11 percentage points more balls and 12.5 percentage points more strikes than Murakami, but he also has exceptional power when he makes contact.
On the other end of the spectrum, Sam Antonacci has been an excellent contact bat since joining the major league team. Antonacci has a 109 DV, driven by a 21.4% chase rate and a 62.7% zone swing rate. He doesn’t have much power, swinging the bat a smidge under 70 mph while averaging 87.3 mph exit velocity. Chase Meidroth has also had a strong contact season, but unlike Antonacci, Meidroth is passive in the zone. Meidroth actually ranks better than Antonacci by oDV and DV despite chasing more often, but I haven’t been able to unpack precisely why.
Then, we have the exceptional Miguel Vargas. Vargas chases only 21.5% of balls he sees while swinging at 68.5% of strikes for an exceptional 47% zSwing-oSwing. His 128 DV is tied for 5th in baseball among hitters who have seen at least 400 pitches and has earned him a .251/.364/.497 line that is 40% better than average. Vargas is likely to run lower batting averages than his 17.5% strikeout rate would otherwise lead you to believe because the overwhelming majority of his contact is in the air. While fly balls do the most damage, they’re also the lowest BABIP type of batted ball, and Vargas has adopted the pull-and-lift approach that is so common among today’s hitters looking to add power. Importantly, he’s maintained excellent contact rates despite adding over 3 mph of bat speed this season and is a legitimate star centerpiece of a playoff offense.
Braves – 99.9% Playoff Chance
In recent years, the Braves have avoided the platoon-heavy mix-and-match approach of teams like Tampa Bay, playing their starters whenever available. Like the Yankees, one key question will be availability – while Ronald Acuña Jr. is currently healthy and playing, he’s missed 40+ games in every season since 2021 except for his transcendent 2023, including this season. Acuña is the only Braves player with a zDV and oDV above 100, although Lane Thomas and Matt Olson also rank well on overall DV based on their aversion to chasing.
Several members of the Braves’ core succeed despite their swing decisions rather than because of them. Michael Harris II is well-known for his proclivity to swing, earning himself just a 60 DV based on a 44.6% chase rate. Ozzie Albies actually swings a bit more than Harris, but on a better selection of pitches. Albies swings at 79% of the strikes he sees and chases 38.2% of the balls he sees. It’s been more productive for Harris; we’re now almost three full seasons since Albies has been better than a league-average bat, while Harris has a 119 wRC+ after two seasons with unusually low BABIPs. Perhaps more surprisingly, Mauricio Dubón has moved into the cleanup spot for the last three games against righties. Like his middle infield partner, Dubón has been up there hacking this year. His 86 DV is a combination of a better-than-average zDV and an oDV well below league average. Dubon doesn’t swing quite as much as Albies, but he makes better contact, with 82% of his plate appearances ending in contact. Overall, Atlanta swings more than any non-Rockies team, even if key players like Olson are fairly patient at the plate.
Phillies – 94.1% Playoff Chance
It’s been a down year for the Phillies offense, but it hasn’t shown up in their playoff chances. The Phillies are on a three-year decline in their relative run scoring, finishing 2024 with the 5th most runs scored, coming in 8th in 2025, and currently sitting at 12th. The Phillies are 6th in overall swing rate despite being 15th in zone swing rate. Unsurprisingly, they’re 4th in chase rate. Pitchers have noticed, throwing the Phillies the 5th fewest strikes of any team. The key members of the Phillies are still good swing decision-makers, with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber posting 104 and 103 DVs, respectively. JT Realmuto and Alec Bohm are a smidge above average at 101, with Realmuto sitting close to 100 in both zDV and oDV, but Bohm tilting more towards patience and avoiding chase.
The remainder of the Phillies’ roster getting at-bats tends to be overly aggressive. Luis Arraez gets a bit of a pass because he has a different objective at the plate than the rest of the lineup. Justin Crawford has disappointed in his rookie season. In addition to a high chase rate driving his oDV down to 90, Crawford would have the 3rd-lowest average launch angle in baseball if he had enough at-bats to qualify. A big part of the decline in the Phillies offense has been a down year from Trea Turner. Turner is chasing at the second-highest rate of his career, 3 percentage points more than last year, while also swinging at strikes at his lowest rate since 2020. At the end of the day, the Phillies may have the most riding on the fewest players; can Harper and Schwarber provide just enough offense for their dominant front 3 starters to carry the team through the playoffs?
Brewers – 100.0% Playoff Chance
The Brewers’ pitching machine keeps rolling, but the offense has a few points of interest as well. The Brewers are an extremely swing-averse team, ranking last in the majors in overall swing rate. They chase less than anyone in baseball, while swinging at the second-fewest strikes. The team is full of hitters with very good DVs, although they’re all tilted towards excellent oDVs and mediocre zDVs. Jake Bauers is an excellent representation of this team approach, with a 112 oDV and an 88 zDV. Bauers chases just 21.3% of pitches outside the zone. His 41.6% zSwing-oSwing is excellent, though it still leaves him with just a 62.9% zone swing rate. Gary Sánchez, Andrew Vaughn, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, and Garrett Mitchell all fit this general pattern as well.
Christian Yelich and William Contreras are notable departures from this approach. They both have plus swing decisions and above-average oDVs, but they’re also more aggressive in the zone than the rest of the team now that Luis Rengifo is in San Diego. Contreras swings at 68.5% of strikes and 47% of pitches overall. Yelich sits a bit below at 66.8% of strikes and 44.7% overall. Both would lead the current construction of the Brewers’ lineup, but for one Jackson Chourio. Chourio stands out with the worst DV on the team, a not-that-awful 90, thanks to a 34.3% chase rate that is nearly 4 percentage points ahead of anyone else on the team. That’s a step forward for Chourio, though, as he chased at 36.8% last year. He’s lost nearly 8 percentage points of zone swing, though it hasn’t hurt him, as his contact rates have taken a small step forward along with a slightly faster bat this season. Top to bottom, the Brewers’ lineup makes the most of their raw athletic ability thanks to outstanding swing decisions; other than the Dodgers (sigh), they put up the most consistently strong DVs of any playoff team.
Cubs – 98.2% Playoff Chance
The Cubs share some similarities with their NL Central rivals. They have the 4th-best chase rate in the game and the 3rd-lowest zone swing rate in the game. Together, they generate a 44.9% swing rate, the second-lowest in baseball, ahead of the aforementioned Brewers. Alex Bregman and Seiya Suzuki are both extremely low chase power hitters, who also swing at 60% of the strikes they see. Bregman has heated up with the weather, hitting for a 98 wRC+ in the first half of the season, but elevating to a 149 wRC+ in the second half. He leads the Cubs with a 119 DV. He’s significantly ahead of Suzuki’s 108 DV, thanks mostly to a much higher zDV. While they swing at roughly the same share of strikes, Bregman’s swings are more heavily tilted towards fastballs, while Suzuki has similar swing rates against every pitch.
The Cubs will be missing Dansby Swanson until close to the end of the regular season. Swanson’s average has cratered thanks to a .244 BABIP, he’s maintained an excellent approach at the plate. Swanson chases only 26.3% of pitches outside the zone, the 8th-most on the Cubs, but he swings at more strikes than any other player on the team. He’s tied with Michael Busch with a 113 DV. Pete Crow-Armstrong doesn’t have the best approach, chasing 34% of pitches outside the zone, but he’s obliterating everything he hits and playing otherworldly outfield defense. The lineup is a fair match for the Brewers, but it doesn’t seem likely the pitching would hold up to their neighbors to the north.
Dodgers – 100.0% Playoff Chance
Finally, we reach the Dodgers, a team whose playoff appearance felt like a foregone conclusion the entire season despite their lineup taking a step back. Of course they’re excellent, and of course they rank well by DV. Kyle Tucker, for all of his struggles this season, has a 25.1% chase rate and a 73.7% zone swing rate. Those are both excellent numbers, even if the 11.8% walk rate and 18.3% K rate they generate are both a step down from the 14.7% and 14.6% he put up last year. Mookie Betts and Will Smith share Tucker’s 120 DV. They’re both less aggressive in the zone, but even better at avoiding chase than Tucker is. Even the players who play a bit part on the Dodgers’ major league roster make excellent decisions. Alex Call, Hyeseong Kim, and Alex Freeland all have DVs of 117 or better.
There’s only one Dodgers regular with notably below-average swing decisions by DV, and it’s Shohei Ohtani. For all of Ohtani’s practically infinite list of strengths, he’s taken a step back in his swing decisions this year. He’s chasing 30.4% of the time, tied with his 2019 season for the highest rate of his career. He’s swinging at 66.1% of strikes, tied with last year for his lowest rate since 2020. He now has a below-average chase rate and strikes out more than the average hitter, too. Does it matter? Probably not that much. He’s elite this year rather than joining Yordan Alvarez in the ranks of the otherworldly, but that likely has much more to do with a 1 mph decline in his bat speed and a 1.4 mph decline in his average exit velocity. He’s still in the 80th and 98th percentiles in baseball by those measures, though, so this is picking the tiniest of nits. I wish there was something more to say here, but “Dodgers good at every part of baseball” isn’t much of a story.
Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire and Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire) | Designed by Aaron Asbury (@aarongifs on Instagram)
