Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Tyler Mahle (ATL) @ NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
The trade deadline is exciting. It can bring new hope to clubs and new prospects to others. Many players find a clearer path to the World Series by joining a contender, and many players get out of bad situations by leaving poorly run organizations. One of the most exciting archetypes of players dealt at this point in the year is one who gets a fresh start.
Tyler Mahle swapped his threads in a trade from the Giants to the Braves, giving him the opportunity to start anew. He embraced the rockstar lifestyle and put on a show in the Bronx with 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches (ND). Sweet niblets!
Before we break down that dominance, let me remind you of what Mahle did in San Francisco. Through the end of May, he struggled to a 6.04 ERA across 11 starts before missing a month with a hamstring strain. He returned throwing a tick harder and pitched much better (3.79 ERA in seven starts), but the final two starts of his Giants career are what I assumed piqued the Braves’ interest.
In a start hosting the Brewers, his velocity peaked at 94+ mph, leading to six shutout frames. He followed that up with slightly lower velocity (still higher than any other start) and allowed five runs, but he racked up a season-high nine strikeouts. That pair of starts showcased his ceiling and pointed to better times ahead.
We got the best of both worlds in his Braves debut as he went six shutout innings and tied his season high with nine strikeouts. The velocity was down a little more, but still tied for his highest of any start outside of those two pre-deadline outliers. The heater stayed upstairs, dominating with seven whiffs, 37% CSW, and five strikeouts.
It paired amazingly with surprisingly consistent low splitters, allowing Mahle to pull off the BSB. I call it consistent because of its uniform movement profile. I say surprising because splitters are notoriously volatile, not only in their command, but also in their movement. He also commanded them well, keeping them at the bottom or below the zone, returning 71% strikes, four whiffs, and a trio of punchouts.
The glue that holds the one-two punch together is an 87-88 mph cutter that has replaced his slider. He’s throwing it harder this year, and while it earned just 42% strikes on Friday attempting to frontdoor LHB and get RHB chasing away, it’s been an important strike pitch to keep him in counts all year.
Nobody’s perfect, but Mahle was a little lucky in New York, returning nine outs on 12 balls in play thanks to some Koufax kindness. We also can’t expect him to live at the 37%+ K% he’s posted in his last two starts, a product of a 62% putaway rate that hints at unsustainable efficiency in two-strike counts. Regardless, there’s definitely a different air about Mahle.
He hit his peak in 2021 with a 94 mph average four-seamer velocity. We’re not expecting him to return to his peak, but an improved version worth rostering universally is attainable at 93-94 mph. Now pitching for a team with a superior defense and a better offense that will give him a better chance at recording wins, he could be the one that becomes a trustworthy arm in your rotation for the final two months. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ SEA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. @TEA makes everyone look better. (View Game Card)
Max Fried (NYY) vs ATL (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
That looks like a full workload to me. It’s all systems go for Fried. With 90 pitches under his belt and domination against the Braves, nothing is preventing him from his Coronation Day. Go dominate the Mariners and force Nick to give you that AGA tag. (View Game Card)
Zac Thornton (NYM) @ PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 63 pitches.
I targeted Thornton as a streamer here because the Pirates struggle against southpaws (bottom five in MLB 89 wRC+). He came through with a win and a pristine ERA, but it took a lot more help from Koufax than I expected. The lack of whiffs and failure to depart from his reliance on cutters and four-seamers (60% usage for 18% CSW) has us steering clear @ATL next. (View Game Card)
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks – 24 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 84 pitches.
Holy moly, Payton Tolle! That’s a Golden Goal as he matched the 2026 high by an American League pitcher (Emerson Hancock and Reid Detmers in May). Maybe more impressively, he did so with just 84 pitches, becoming the first pitcher with 14+ strikeouts in fewer than 85 pitches and giving him the second-lowest ratio of strikeouts to pitches since 1988 (when pitches were first tracked). With some home cooking, Tolle pumped his fastball at a season-high velo, allowing it to dominate upstairs even more than usual with 79% strikes, 10 whiffs, and five Ks. The Canibal McSanchez approach doesn’t work without cutters mixing in upstairs, as they induced six whiffs and 47% CSW, and it’s not a Ras Pack without sinkers chipping in, returning a trio of whiffs and 77% strikes. Despite his affinity for PL Terms, Tolle surprisingly switched it up by throwing curveballs 10% more often (up to 18%). The massive velocity difference caught A’s batters off guard all night, leading to a whopping 67% CSW and five strikeouts. Its success is even more evidence that Tolle will reach higher levels with the expansion of his arsenal, rather than a heavy lean on his elite four-seamer. (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs LAD (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.
I guess Kelly was holding back last time, because he arrived fully equipped to handle the Dodgers. He packed extra velo, pristine changeup command, the luck of Koufax, and even a willingness to avoid giving into hitters with a few free passes. His reward for slaying the mighty two-time reigning champs? A sweet treat. Rockie Road is on deck and we all want a bite of that. (View Game Card)
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs BAL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.
Eovaldi’s doing his best to give us reasons to stick around. C’mon please! What do I have to do to stay on your fantasy team? ERA? You like ERA? Here’s a sub-2.00 ERA. Your ERA’s still over 4.00 for the year. Fine, fine! I heard you like whiffs. Here’s 11. I’ve only induced single-digit whiffs twice this year. Thanks, but you do know why we like whiffs, right? Cause they’re fun to watch? No. Well, yes, but no. It’s because they engender strikeouts. You gave us just two here. Oh come on, that’s not fair. I was super unlucky to return my lowest putaway rate of the year at 18%. Please, give me one more chance. It’s the Angels next. I’ll take you to Disneyland afterward. Fine. One more. But- It’s the post-deadline Nationals (without James Wood, Curtis Mead, and Luis García Jr.) and then the Angels again afterward. FINE! I guess you’re sticking around. Yessss! Don’t push it. (View Game Card)
Adrian Houser (SFG) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 86 pitches.
I was at this game and watched Houser do his thing after JT Brubaker opened. With Tyler Mahle and Robbie Ray dealt at the deadline and Trevor McDonald undergoing Tommy John surgery, Houser is back in the rotation. Don’t expect a lot of outings like this. He has a 5.73 ERA and 16% K% in 14 starts this year. Hasn’t he been pitching out of the bullpen? Since moving to the bullpen, he has a 2.03 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine outings. That’s awesome! The strikeout rate is down to 14% with an equally horrid 7% SwStr%. Even sitting a tick up on Friday, his batted ball reliance is not something in which I want to put my faith. (View Game Card)
José Soriano (TOR) @ PHI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
We had a quartet of players debut in new threads on Friday. Soriano was one of them, donning Toronto blue for the first time. His curveball was excellent, with 12 whiffs and 50% CSW, and he threw plenty of strikes with his heaters (73%). This was a day of two-strike inefficiency. He reached two strikes in 70% of his plate appearances, but an 8% per-pitch putaway led to drawn-out at-bats and a high pitch count that knocked him out before he could qualify for a win. All three free passes came in 3-2 counts, hinting at a pitcher who wasn’t commanding poorly, but rather lacked the pitch or sequence to put batters away. I’m looking forward to Soriano’s final two months with the Blue Jays as his ground ball approach is much more suited for an elite defensive ballclub like Toronto than the awful defense that backed him up in Anaheim the past couple of years. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 61 pitches.
Why are we limiting Phillips’ pitch usage now? He got up to 97 pitches in his final June start, but has since failed to eclipse 76 pitches (71 or below in his other six starts). I get it if he’s struggling or if the Marlins have a huge lead, but they pulled him after he allowed an inning-opening single in the fifth, just for the bullpen to eventually blow the lead. I’m not a huge believer in Phillips’ LHB approach, but I like his sinker and sweeper. Regardless of my feelings, I think if you’re going to give a guy a shot in the rotation, give him a legit shot! (View Game Card)
George Klassen (LAA) @ MIA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.
Klassen’s command was a topic of conversation on the most recent episode of The Craft. Nick and Eno talked about how Klassen walked 10 batters with a combined 51% strike rate in his first two big league starts in April. However, since mid-June, every minor league outing he’s had has come with 60%+ strikes, during which his walk rate has been in the single digits, including his final two starts at Triple-A coming with no walks for the first time since his season debut. WELP! So much for that. 55% strikes and four walks here. He’s still got some work to do. (View Game Card)
Shane Baz (BAL) @ TEX (L) – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BB, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
This is some kind of heater. Baz allowed 4+ runs in five of his first eight starts, but has done so just once in his last 15 starts dating back to mid-May. It’s a sub-3.00 ERA since then, though the 1.21 WHIP and 22% K% aren’t spectacular. What has been spectacular is his command recently. He’s pulling off the BSB with low curveballs and changeups while going Canibal McSanchez with four-seamers and cutters upstairs. He’s pitched at his best across his last five starts with a 2.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 25% K%. As long as the command sticks and he survives @MIN next, we can start him vs NYY afterward. (View Game Card)
Kevin Gausman (CHC) @ KCR (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
The Cubs seem like an ideal fit for Gausman. He needs a good defense behind him to gobble up all the grounders and a playoff race to give him the adrenaline he needs to give his max effort. With the best defense in baseball supporting him, he returned 17 outs on 21 balls in play. With the Cubs in the heat of a playoff race, he threw 1-2 ticks harder, dominating with his usual four-seamer/splitter attack. I don’t have a link, but I once heard a study on Effectively Wild about players traded at the deadline. IIRC, players who struggled before the deadline but were traded to the opposite league tended to perform noticeably better afterward. It’s a real change of scenery for Gausman, and I’m excited for these next two months. With STL, @SEA, CIN up next, there’s no reason to think the fun won’t continue. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) @ CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
Messick’s at 95+ mph, throwing plenty of strikes, and commanding changeups low and armside. What else could you ask for? Fewer than two home runs. Sure, but I think we have to be grateful they were both solo shots. (View Game Card)
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs TBR (L) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He served up a pair of solo shots and walked a season-high four batters due to a season-low 57% strike rate. We’re happy it still went well and that he continues to produce elite volume. Gilbert’s completed six frames in 65% of his starts and has pitched into the sixth in all but two of his starts. (View Game Card)
Roki Sasaki (LAD) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
When Sasaki is throwing 98-101 mph, locating splitters low and armside, and incorporating competitive sliders, he’s going to make us happy. His command can get a little sloppy, especially with sliders here, but his stuff is dope enough that he makes us feel dope for starting him. Don’t let the season-long numbers fool you. It’s a 3.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 26% K% across his last 13 starts. Let’s start him vs MIL next before deciding what to do @COL (leaning sit) and @ATL (leaning start) afterward. (View Game Card)
Kyle Leahy (STL) vs COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 82 pitches.
Everyone loves Rockie Road! Leahy was an obvious stream in this cushy matchup and gave us exactly what we wanted. A bite of his ice cream! Yes! Also, a win and eight punchouts. The perfect sundae. Yesterday was Friday. You know what I mean! It’s back to wire with PHI, @CIN, @PHI upcoming. (View Game Card)
Chase Petty (CIN) @ WSN (ND) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 1 K – 5 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 38 pitches.
Petty opened for a Reds bullpen game, and because he still has no clue where his pitches are going, we’re going to forget about this and have no clue it happened by tomorrow. (View Game Card)
Noah Schultz (CHW) vs CLE (L) – 0.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 K – 4 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 23 pitches.
This was an accidental disaster. White Sox manager Will Venable forgot that the pitching coach already made a mound visit in the first inning, and went out to talk to Schultz, forcing him to be removed from the game after recording just one out and throwing 23 pitches. The mistake cost Schultz his roster spot, as he was optioned to the minors after the game to make room for the promotions of top prospects Hagen Smith and Tanner McDougal. David Sandlin was called upon to bail out Schultz and went 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches (ND). Oh, he also got demoted to make room for those aforementioned prospects. What a disaster. (View Game Card)
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 100 pitches.
Cavalli narrowly avoided a Careful, Icarus. He was brought back out for the seventh and allowed two singles on 10 pitches before being lifted. Luckily, his bullpen locked in and escaped the jam to maintain his win and quality start. He’s still throwing 97+ mph four-seamers, 87+ mph curves, and supportive cutters at 94 mph. We keep starting him. (View Game Card)
Ryan Feltner (COL) @ STL (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 91 pitches.
Even outside of Coors, Feltner isn’t doing much of anything to get us excited. COL story, bro. (View Game Card)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
We all knew that 10-K outing last time was a fluke. Matthews was lucky the Brewers weren’t more aggressive, as they produced four hits and a homer against his four-seamer, but patiently allowed him to steal 10 called strikes with the pitch. 55% strikes on secondaries suggests Matthews didn’t have much else to turn to outside of the hittable heater. This ain’t it. (View Game Card)
Ronel Blanco (HOU) @ SDP (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 K – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 78 pitches.
I love Blanco’s stuff, but I’m not convinced it’s going to come together this year. His 93-mph, 19-20″ vert four-seamer pairs exceptionally with his trio of whiffable secondaries, but he’s not commanding them effectively enough to pull it off, leading to a HAISTBMBWT?! Command is the last attribute to return after Tommy John surgery, so I’m viewing him as more of a sneaky play for 2027 drafts. (View Game Card)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs TOR (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 116 pitches.
Aces gonna quell our concerns about his velocity and workload but fail to avoid the free pass. Let’s hope this was just an outlier (he hasn’t walked more than four batters since he walked seven in a game in 2019) and not a product of some injury the Phillies have been hiding from us. (View Game Card)
Robbie Ray (SDP) vs HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 92 pitches.
Ray had the worst team debut on Friday, which makes sense given he’s felt like the one due for the most regression. He couldn’t command his heaters (51% strikes), is still unwilling to trust his slider against RHB (7% usage), and failed to make up for it all with changeups alone. These next two months scare me if this becomes a trend. Ray needs to throw strikes to avoid leading the league in walks, and his lack of slider usage has put too much pressure on an inconsistent curveball and changeup. I just want the old Ray back! (View Game Card)
Daniel Lynch IV (KCR) vs CHC (L) – 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 35 pitches.
Lynch combined with Jose Cuas to open for Mason Black, who went 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 86 pitches (ND). 2/86 whiffs with a kitchen sink approach should tell you everything you need to know about his fantasy viability. (View Game Card)
Keider Montero (DET) @ SFG (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 82 pitches.
Montero’s pitch-to-contact approach was bound to bite him at some point. It doesn’t help that her served up a pair of homers and walked more than two batters for just the second time all year. I’m sorry for the bad juju, Keider. He’s a fine WHIP play in deep leagues, but in standard leagues, I think we’re fine avoiding him vs CLE, @PIT, and vs TBR over the next couple of weeks. (View Game Card)
Jack Perkins (ATH) @ BOS (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
At least we’re trying to switch things up! Perkins leaned heavily into cutters, throwing them 29% more often (to 39% usage) and cutting back on four-seamers and sweepers. His stuff is great all around, so if he feels like he can control cutters more effectively, I’m all for it. That seemed to be the case, as cutters returned 67% strikes and avoided damage. Unfortunately, four-seamers got tagged for a trio of hits and a homer while offspeed pitches returned just 45% strikes. This was away from Sacré Verde. The strikeouts aren’t worth chasing, even in deep leagues, until he shakes the PEAS label. (View Game Card)
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs NYM (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 1 K – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 63 pitches.
This is the guy that risked his job to protest his removal from the rotation? Carmen’s Ras Pack doesn’t call my name, and if it did, I’d be really scared. How do you know me?! Mlodzinski’s splitter is supposedly the savior of his arsenal, but it returned just 11% CSW and was thrown just nine times. That arsenal is doomed if that’s your champion. You’re gonna need more than three overall whiffs to ensure our bread is buttered @MIA next time. (View Game Card)
Shane Drohan (MIL) vs MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
This seemed like a no-brainer against a Twins offense that’s in the bottom third against southpaws and is without Byron Buxton. However, Drohan couldn’t find the feel for his offspeed pitches to take the pressure off his trio of fastball variants. They returned just 45% strikes due to a 24% zone rate, leading to batters punishing heaters to the tune of eight hits and a pair of homers. Don’t forget the walks. Right. Three walks on fastballs, as sinkers held a 52% strike rate. This is the worst we’ve seen from Drohan, but we also just saw his worst two starts ago. Now he gets @LAD. Time to let him go. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Chris Sale vs. Gerrit Cole – How often do you get to watch Hall of Fame pitchers square off?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
