Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Because I wasn’t able to get this article out on Sunday, I’m combining all news between Saturday and Monday afternoon into this article and Monday’s SP Roundup article.
Atlanta optioned Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A. Get ready to fire up your Reynaldo López picks, y’all. He’s got the fifth spot and with a fantastic fastball and (hopefully) enough sliders and curves for strikes, he can take full advantage of the ideal team context. Circle him at the end of your drafts as he gets the White Sox in his first start of the year. Perfect.
Josiah Gray and Zack Wheeler are the opening day starters for the Nationals and Phillies, respectively.
Sonny Gray will not be ready for opening day. It doesn’t mean he can’t return to be the fifth arm in the first turn of the rotation, though. He shouldn’t miss much time at all.
The Marlins could use Max Meyer as their fifth starter in the rotation with Pérez, Garrett, and Cabrera all on the mend. It makes more sense to keep Meyer in the minors as it would be a short term gig, but there’s a chance he earns a spot.
Gavin Stone has officially earned the fifth rotation spot for the Dodgers. We assumed as much, but now we have proper confirmation.
Brandon Williamson is dealing with shoulder soreness. We don’t know the extent of it and shoulder soreness is a common side-effect of ramping up in the spring. That said, it does delay Williamson and could mean Connor Phillips or even Chase Petty would get a chance as the SP #7/8 choices before Williamson if there’s decent delay here.
Bob Nightengale now believes that the Astros are a “long shot” for Blake Snell. And so we continue to wait.
Justin Verlander is progressing in his return from shoulder inflammation and is expected to face hitters “in the next day or two”.
José Urquidy officially has a forearm muscle strain. We didn’t expect him to start the year in the rotation and we’re waiting to hear an official timeline.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
TBR vs. MIN
TOR vs. NYY
DET vs. PIT
PHI vs. MIA
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s legit going upstairs with heaters now and that’s a cool thing. 35% CSW on his four-seamers is a great sign and I hope that carries over. I do wonder about the breakers, though the slider was solid at 6/8 strikes. Pepiot isn’t a major target for me, but this could ultimately work out. It’s too bad his opening schedule is rough.
Pablo López (MIN) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Velocity is good, he’s leaning into sinkers armside, and he focused more on curves than changeups here. No sweepers here is a bit of a shock and I wonder if he’s shelving it for the curve.
Paolo Espino (TOR) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Hey, not the worst, and expect Espino as the backup to Bowden if the Jays need it, with Mitch White around too.
Luis Gil (NYY) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I just want the Yankees to make him the starter over Clayton Beeter or Will Warren. It makes sense not to in order to protect the fella as he returns from TJS, but the four-seamer is a monster of a pitch at 97 mph and stupid good iVB and HAVAA, while I’ve been so impressed by his changeup and slider this spring. Both have returned high strike rates in his outings, including today’s 13/17 on his slowball (he didn’t have this working before!) and 9/14 on the slider. If those earn strikes, it sets up Gil to be prime Javier…if he can keep his heater upstairs.
Tarik Skubal (DET) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. He only threw eight breakers as he focused on the four-seamer and changeup, which could explain the battering he took on the mound. Velocity is still up at 97 mph (stupid fun) and he really does need to work on getting that changeup down. He’s still dope, y’all, even if he hasn’t changed his slider like they advertised he would.
Mitch Keller (PIT) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s good to see the sweeper go 3/8 whiffs, but hot dang, he needs to lean more into his breakers than a sub 20% rate. His cutter returned just 9% CSW as well and I just can’t do this. Keller’s sinker and four-seamer are not the pitches you want to rely on day-to-day. He needs to be the cutter + breakers guy with a rare heater. Think an Aaron Civale arm who can actually throw 95-97 mph heaters when he wants to. But he maxed at just 95.2 mph and sat 94 in this one. Okay, he was a tick down. That’s not great, either. Hmm.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. He’s a thing that the Pirates will use as they delay Paul Skenes. Note the performance, nod your head in understand that you don’t want this, and we move on.
Kolby Allard (PHI) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Oh Dralla, you’re not going to actually be in the Phillies rotation and stop Mick Abel from getting his shot, right? Good.
Trevor Rogers (MIA) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. We finally got Statcast Data for Rogers (and not that wonky “Unknown” data from the Mets outing) and while I’m sad to see his four-seamer velocity down to just 91/92 (not 93-95), I’m thrilled about his changeup showing up for 7/19 whiffs, even if it was a little spotty at a sub 60% strike rate. The slider is still working and with that changeup, Rogers can produce out of the gate. I trust his fastball command enough even at the lower velocity (He’s doing the BSB!) to take advantage of the Pirates and Cardinals across his first two starts.
Statcast Games – No TV
OAK vs. COL
Kyle Muller (OAK) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Velocity is down, but at least the slider is better than ever? Even at 2.5 ticks down? Yeah, fine. Not great.
Kyle Freeland (COL) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s still 3-4 ticks up and I’m super happy for him. It’s pretty clear to me Freeland is the only legit starter in Colorado, but I should mention that as he tosses these games outside of Coors, he still earned just 5/71 whiffs overall. He’s a highly debatable road arm, who gets @ARI and @CHC in his first two starts of the year. That’s a shockingly considerable opening-week stream for those in NL-Only leagues and that’s a wild statement.
No Statcast – TV
KCR v.s CHC
CLE vs. SFG
ARI vs. TEX
SFG vs. CHW
CHC vs. LAA
CHW vs. SEA
PIT vs. ATL
Jordan Lyles (KCR) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Oh look, he’s going to be able to make that SP #5 start after all. And none rejoiced. Sorry Alec Marsh.
Drew Smyly (CHC) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Yeaaaaah. The Cubs really need another depth starter or two. I still miss you, Caleb Kilian.
Triston McKenzie (CLE) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Not a great outing for McKenzie, but as long as he’s healthy and not walking the farm, we should be fine.
Daulton Jefferies (SFG) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I think he’s gonna make The List. Seriously. Jeffries should have that starting job after looking great this spring, Winn’s delay, and his prior experience in the Oakland rotation. That said, it’s a horrid schedule for the Giants early in the year (Jeffries gets the Padres twice or Dodgers + Padres), so I sadly can’t recommend this for fantasy teams just yet.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhhh, I’ve been off this train a little since his velocity hasn’t held at 96 mph since the early outings, but more importantly, he has to endure NYY + ATL in his first two outings. Let’s talk after that.
Cody Bradford (TEX) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. He’s the #5 for the Rangers now and this start reads like a fella sucking in his stomach and finally letting it out.
Jack Leiter (TEX) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Zero strikeouts ain’t what we want to see from Leiter, who has our eyebrow raised as a potential option for the Rangers relatively soon this season. I truly hope we see some impressive Statcast data on him in April and May to get us amped for his official MLB debut.
Spencer Howard (SFG) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. That’s the line of a guy doing everything he can to make an MLB rotation. If he has another like this, he could get the spot over Mason Black as the Giants have nothing to lose featuring Howard. Or it could be one of their classic piggy-back scenarios. Since when did “classic” mean “resented”?
Chad Kuhl (CHW) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Oh right, the White Sox were giving Kuhl an audition as they have no idea what to do with their rotation. It wouldn’t be the most wild scenario to see Kuhl get the #5 spot if Chicago didn’t want Nick Nastrini or Drew Thorpe to debut too quickly, but that’s just not fun at all. So let’s not do that, Kuhl?
Jakob Junis (MIL) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Junis really shouldn’t be in the rotation, but alas, here we are. It’s still just a great slider and blegh otherwise.
Joe Boyle (OAK) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Get used to this. That’s a Boyle line, alright.
Ben Brown (CHC) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Whoa whoa whoa, are the Cubs considering Brown to start now? He was looking a whole lot like a a reliever in my view, especially with how they used him, but maybe the Kilian news + Smyly and Assad looking rough, they may consider Brown as a swing man in the pen…? Something to consider, but I worry about his overall command and fastball/slider approach.
José Soriano (LAA) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. The Angels have been stretching him out and while it would be a shock if he actually made the rotation, Soriano may find his way there at the first call for help. I need more data on his full arsenal before leaning into this, but there is some intrigue at least with his mid-to-upper 90s velocity.
Jake Woodford (CHW) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Ah, the Amish Mustang. The White Sox threw both their NRI arms in Kuhl and Woodford to see if there was anything here and mostly likely, no. This ain’t it.
Luis Castillo (SEA) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Castillo, you’re so dang awesome.
Jared Jones (PIT) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. LET. HIM. START. It’s cool to see him with just one walk here and I sincerely hope the Pirates get aggressive and let him take the #5 spot. Please don’t let Germán take it. Or Lauer. Or Roansy. Or Falter. Or Priester. That’s a lot of names. Well maybe Luis Ortiz isn’t the SP #4…? Yeah okay fine, it’s still an outside chance but we should still be taking Jones as a spec add for now.
Charlie Morton (ATL) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Hey that’s cool. Morton has value simply because he’ll go a strikeout per inning and earn a plethora of Wins on Atlanta. The ratios will be questionable, though.
No Statcast – No TV
SEA vs. CIN
MIL vs. OAK
BOS vs. BAL
TEX vs. MIL
NYM vs. HOU
George Kirby (SEA) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Pretty blegh for Kirby and yet we do nothing.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Hancock has seemed like the logical SP #6 for the Mariners and had a setback in the spring before this. Don’t read into it, he’ll start the year in the minors and likely gets the shot when needed. He’s a Toby when he does.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I’m intrigued by Lodolo’s increased velocity, though he’ll begin the year on the IL and return on April 10th as he hosts the Brewers. I’m not starting him there, so I guess I’m out on Lodolo? It’s a bit annoying to be out on a guy who could actually be solid as soon as mid-April, but the chances of that vs. the value of the first 2-to-3 weeks is too good. But he’s in my IL spot! Okay, that’s actually not a terrible point. As long as he’s a the end of your draft, I’m cool with it. Try to keep him in that IL spot for the first start, though.
Cooper Criswell (BOS) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s the SP #6 for the Red Sox and he’s meh. Not enough here.
Corbin Burnes (BAL) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Aces gonna be patient in making Orioles fans excited. He’s looked incredibly mid this spring and as someone who expected Burnes to improve upon all facets of his arsenal for 2024 (curve locations, slider usage, etc.), there is a touch of anxiety that he’s not doing any of it. Y’all know he’s not on any of my teams as I focus on hitters early in drafts, but don’t forget, I do The List after all. He’s still SP #2.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. That’s much better for Peralta as we all hope he can find the rhythm with his arsenal that we saw in the second half of last season.
J.P. France (HOU) – 2.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I’m intrigued by the four strikeouts as France has expressed wanting to lean more into strikeouts again. It was his return from shoulder inflammation that delayed his spring and while I’m encouraged, I hate that has to endure the Yankees + Rangers in his first two starts. Given how fringe he is already, I have to pass on this for now.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
IT'S COLE RAGANS DAY AND HE'S LEGIT ON TV
Tylor Megill – 95/96? Upstairs 4S?
MacKenzie Gore – 95+? Upstairs 4S?
Framber Valdez – CH & CT vs RHB?
Matthew Liberatore -…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 17, 2024