Two-Start Starters: Week 23

Welcome to the 23rd edition of the 2026 two-start pitcher rankings!

Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters into four tiers: Set and Forget, Most Likely Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that: get them in your lineup and shift your focus to other positions. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, though they carry some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, the Avoid tier includes the pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.

I will also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The streamer of the week for this upcoming week is Clay Holmes, and he will have (STOW) next to his name.

As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections, and are subject to change

• Payton Tolle bounced back from a 3 ER, 5.0 IP outing against the Dbacks witha. 2 ER, 5.1 IP outing against the Marlins.  The good news in both is that he’s still striking out over a batter an inning, and there’s no reason to be scared off by these two “meh” starts.
• Sonny Gray has been rolling over his past 10 starts, pitching to a 3.00 ERA over 60 IP.  Over his last 3 starts, he’s striking out a batter per inning as well, raising his ceiling. Almost half his runs allowed over this 10-game stretch came in a rough two-start stretch at the end of July (5 ER vs the Blue Jays, 4 ER in Sacramento).
• Gavin Williams imploded in his last start (5 ER, 6 H, 1.1 IP) against the Angels.  He still struck out 3 when his stuff was all over the place. That’s his 2nd poor start in his last 3, so some concerns are warranted, but for now set-and-forget.
• Troy Melton has pitched to a 1.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his past 10 starts (59.1 IP). He’s good for 4+ strikeouts a start, but has tripped up in his last two outings, allowing 6 of his 10 ER over his previous two starts (3 in each, one against the Rays, the other at the Royals). Regardless, he’s been great, and the floor is so high with him, even if the strikeout upside isn’t elite.
• Logan Gilbert remained in the top 10 of this week’s The List. There’s not much to nitpick with Gilbert; he provides length (7th in IP), misses bats (15th in SwStr%), and doesn’t allow many baserunners (15th in WHIP).
• Jacob deGrom’s command has been off on his four-seamer and slider. However, if he’s healthy (and this is going based on whether the Rangers place him on the IL), start him. The Athletics have been disappointing this year, and the Rays offense is 8 points worse on the road (101 wRC+) than at home (109 wRC+).

• Ian Seymour has graduated from STOW territory (rostered in >50% of Yahoo leagues) and pitched well as a follower recently.  He’s pitched 5+ IP and allowed 3 ER or less in 7 straight starts, and has strikeout upside as well (31.5% K% over his last 10).
• Sean Burke is in the 69th percentile in terms of walk rate but had a miserable outing his last time out, walking 8 Rangers over 3 IP.  He somehow was able to limit them to just 2 ER despite allowing 10 total baserunners over his start.  Given his season-long trends, this should be considered an outlier.
• Taj Bradley had a Strike% over 70% on his four-seamer, cutter, and splitter (combining for 95% of his pitches) in his last start. The result was 21 whiffs and an 11-strikeout outing in Sacramento.  If he fills the zone, the results will follow.
• Peter Lambert pitched better than his line against the Yankees.  He has a 16% K-BB% over his last 10 and is averaging over a strikeout an inning. With his changeup being his best pitch, he matches up well with the White Sox dangerous LHH.
• Clay Holmes (STOW) has such a high floor given his sinker-heavy approach complemented by the Cubs’ defense.  He also generated 6 whiffs on 25 cutters and 3 whiffs on 12 sweepers, potentially opening the door for more strikeouts when he gets ahead of hitters.
• Paul Skenes ‘ velocity was slightly up, eclipsing 97 mph on his four-seamer.  He was sinker-heavy vs RHH, complementing that with his slider/four-seamer/sweeper, and the increased velocity on his four-seamer/splitter should help against LHH as well.  Against the Giants and Angels, Skenes is primed for a strong week.
• Brandon Pfaadt and his kitchen sink approach is starting to face some bumps in the road, allowing 9 ER over his last two starts.  Before those two outings, he allowed 7 ER over 49.1 IP across 8 starts.  If he can continue his strong stretch against the Phillies, the Astros over the weekend should be smoother sailing.
• Logan Webb still hasn’t returned the strikeout upside he had last season (26.2% K rate in 2025, 19.4% in 2026), but he’s still pitching at least 6 innings in most outings.  The exceptions are typically when he has a rough day (such as his second most recent start in Fenway).

• Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers pitch in Coors before returning home to face the Red Sox.  Neither pitcher has shown enough to be too confident about their ability to perform in the Coors altitude, and against the Red Sox I like the lefty Rogers more than Bradish and his breaking pitches.
• Jackson Jobe has now made 4 starts since returning from injury, and has hit 86 pitches in each of his last two.  Despite the increased velocity, his K% is under 20% (18.8%), which limits his ceiling, especially if he’s not pitching deep into games.
• Gage Jump has been boom or bust. He’s either going to bully hitters (like his last start against the Twins, where he struck out 9 over 6.1 innings, allowing 2 ER and just 5 baserunners), or struggle like his start against the Royals (5 ER, 11 baserunners over 4 IP) or Rangers (3 ER, 7 baserunners, 1 strikeout over 5.1 IP). On the road, and especially at the Mariners, I’m more comfortable starting him, but it’s nerve-wracking every time.
• J.T. Ginn has been fine for the Athletics, putting together 5 starts that were mostly PQS or close to it.  He’s a much lower ceiling than his teammate, but has a higher floor.
• MacKenzie Gore against the Athletics is my preferred matchup for him this week. The fastball was down a tick in his last start, and he’s a less extreme version of Jump where he could boom or bust any given start.
• Matthew Boyd gave us his best start of August last time out against the Diamondbacks.  He’s a fine option; he doesn’t have the upside of some of the other arms in this tier, though.
• Landen Roupp has two good matchups this week. His best-case scenario is 5+ innings with a few strikeouts and 1 or 2 runs. That doesn’t happen frequently enough which is why he’s in this tier.

I’m looking for better options on the days these pitchers start. There’s not much to say about any of them here, but I’m happy to elaborate on any of the two-start starters this week! Just reply to Nick’s post with the article on Twitter/X, and I’ll answer any questions!