To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
Expected Starters
Jacob deGrom (TEX, RHP)
You have an opinion of deGrom. I have an opinion of deGrom. It doesn’t matter what I think, just do what you’re comfortable with. I need to say that first before anything as deGrom is arguably the most difficult pitcher to rank this season. After all, the hardest thing we do in the off-season is predict injury/volume and deGrom’s track record brings as much haze as anyone.
Here’s my thought process. First, there should not be a question of his ability. deGrom returned for three games in 2024 and displayed the same “I am the best pitcher on the planet” skillset we’ve known for years with 97/98 mph heaters with rise and flat attack angle + devastating sliders, greeted by a sprinkle of changeups to LHB. I truly don’t believe a degradation of ability is ahead and shouldn’t be weighed into the conversation.
Sadly, we have to talk about the perception of health. No, you shouldn’t expect 150+ innings from deGrom. At the same time, you should expect at least 100 innings and may even get 130 this season. His injury history is littered with problems, though one of the major ones is linked to TJS, and now he has a fully repaired elbow – you know, better than some of the elbows on the verge of exploding. It’s not a bonkers thought to say “give me the guy with the healthy elbow over the guy who had to get shut down for weeks in 2024.” That doesn’t mean deGrom is injury-free, but he’s likely more stable than any season post-2020. (Fun note: deGrom was known as a “workhorse” until 2021. Makes you wonder.)
And now we need to ask ourselves “What am I getting out of my fantasy draft?” If you are in a 12-team league or shallower, you should be jumping to get deGrom. His quality-per-game is SP #1 (sorry Skenes and Skubal, it’s true) and what is often forgotten in player discussion is that you’re not just getting the player. You’re getting the player + their replacement. The depth of SP is enormous entering 2025 and the waiver wire will be filled with worthy options to take over once deGrom inevitably hits the IL. With deGrom’s massive impact when he does pitch, I’m willing to place him inside the Top 10 entering the year for 12-teamers. In 15-teamers, you may need to get quality volume in his place, though there is an argument to be made that deGrom hitting his volume ceiling is a league-winning play vs. the floor play of someone akin to Framber Valdez or George Kirby. Play to your strengths and happy drafting y’all.
Quick Take: deGrom should be considered the SP #1 in quality, though it’s difficult to know how much weight should be placed on his expected workload. Taking into account the added value of the open roster spot if he goes on the IL, deGrom should be heavily considered in 12-teamer leagues and shallower.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX, RHP)
Eovaldi is your standard arm who is seemingly dangling his feet over the cliff of irrelevancy, yet still has enough in the tank to overcome each season. Whether it’s his supposed health risks (29 starts last year!) or declining velocity (still produced at 95 mph!), Eovaldi has consistently gone deep into games and should be expected to again in 2025.
The Rangers defense certainly plays a role and I’m glad to see Eovaldi return for another year. The infield has been at the top of the OAA leaderboard for a few years and should remain that way again, aiding Eovaldi’s climb toward more balls in play off his four-seamer and splitter. However, you should be shocked to see sub-30% ICR marks for both of those pitches against RHB in 2024, first time achievements for each and unlikely to be repeated moving forward.
That regression does scare me. Eovaldi casually threw four-seamers over the plate and let his defense eat them up – a gameplan that doesn’t stick year-to-year as often as I’d like. Meanwhile, the increased splitter usage to nearly 30% against RHB did everything from whiffs to outs to an incredibly efficient putaway rate to keep punchouts flowing despite the increase of efficient outs. It’s hard not to wonder if the rise in splitters had a positive impact on his heater (batters had more hesitation to chase heater), though this feels too generous of a shift.
His LHB opponents had an easier time and it may stay that way again. All three offerings (heater, splitter, cutter) allowed at least 40% ICR marks, with none turning into a 20%+ putaway pitch. Fewer strikeouts equated to more hard hit balls in play and may continue to be a thorn in his side unless the splitter can be the opposite-handed menace it was made to be.
The four-seamer/splitter approach certainly works and the Rangers defense will help. However, the lack of depth in the arsenal does concern me and I don’t believe Eovaldi’s heater is nearly as good as its 2024 marks suggest (mostly against RHB). Expect a solid WHIP and volume marks, though the ERA may be shaky once again…or worse.
Quick Take: Eovaldi struggles with his fastball and cutter against LHB and should be a touch better with his splitter but it may not be enough to stave off likely regression with his outcomes against RHB. The four-seamer/splitter combo may run into more problems in 2025 especially if the defense is worse. Still, Eovaldi is a Holly you’ll regularly slot into your lineup and there’s always value in productive volume.
Jon Gray (TEX, RHP)
I still believe Gray should be in the bullpen. As far as I can tell, he’s very much in the rotation and we have to treat him as such…but the skill set is so clearly pen. IT’S OBVIOUS! His heater doesn’t perform well at 95 mph and needs that extra kick from the pen for 96/97 mph to make the pitch return anything close to a 10% SwStr rate (never held across his career) while his slider is Filthy McFry and demolishes RHB with little effort – he even threw it more than half the time when facing right-handers. What about LHB? Uhhhh, he still throws sliders 33% of the time to an 11% SwStr rate with a meh changeup and the same mediocre heater.
All of that said, watching Gray across the years, I’ve noticed he gets into moments of rhythm with his fastball and slider that create a string of ace-like outings before it falls apart once again. Drafting Gray is breaking the Huascar Rule – you can’t trust a pitcher with a slider and nothing else, no matter how good it is. This has HIPSTER written all over it (and that’s the ceiling…?) and I have no interest. JUST STICK HIM IN THE PEN.
Tyler Mahle (TEX, RHP)
He returned from TJS to toss three starts, only to get shut down with shoulder tightness as we twiddle our thumbs, waiting to hear more entering 2025. The hope is for Mahle to get back at 93/94 mph (not 92 mph we saw last year, ignoring the 89 mph start with shoulder pain), while locating upstairs consistently and pairing it with something legit. Remember, Mahle wasn’t a stud pre-TJS, either. He was a pitcher who had a solid heater foundation but needed a proper companion to truly take off. Maybe the spliitter, maybe the slider, maybe a new cutter, I don’t know what it would be, but Mahle doesn’t seem to be a supinator (read: a dude who throws breakers well), which makes me question if he can develop that much needed #2 pitch. Feel free to grab Mahle at the end of drafts to see how he looks in spring and/or his first start, though I question if the ceiling is high enough to chase. Make sure you buy a short leash.
Quick Take: Mahle’s health is still in question as we hope to see 93+ on the fastball in 2025. We’re still waiting for a proper #2 pitch to arrive and make him a stable arm, let alone have the ability to get the pearl every five days. Not the worst dart throw, but he has a difficult path to a high ceiling.
Cody Bradford (TEX, LHP)
I have a soft spot for Bradford. He’s your standard crafty southpaw who gets overlooked due to low velocity at just 90 mph (let’s give it to him), though his elite seven feet of extension and 16-17″ of iVB in concert with his fantastic command to both LHB and RHB (it could be slightly better to RHB) allow the pitch to be the proper setup for his excellent changeup. No joke, this is a 93rd percentile changeup that could be even better in the year ahead if he can get the pitch down a bit more often. Respect the slowball. But not the fastball? Yeaaaah, it allowed 5 HR to RHB last year and is likely to be a cause of more pain in 2024. The 4% walk rate is elite, though it may be beneficial for Bradford to lower the zone rate on his heater from 53% down to sub 50% levels and sacrifice a few more walks along the way. Nibble like my 2nd grade class gerbil, Nibble. You said Nibble twice. Nah, that was her name. We were smart kids.
Against LHB, there is room to improve with Bradford’s slider nipping too much of the plate while also having a lack of sparkle, though his fastball hovered the edges beautifully and his changeup still made constant appearances. Mixed with the elite Rangers defense, Bradford was able to go 6+ IP in nine of eleven starts after his season debut on the bump. Yes, that should get you interested, especially in deeper formats. While I don’t believe in chasing potential Holly arms inside drafts, I may make an exception for Bradford if I felt I had too much risk in my lineup. That said, the Red Sox come to Arlington to kick off the year and I may want to leave Cody as a potential waiver wire addition if our early fliers don’t pan out. He’s most likely a Toby at the end of the day
Quick Take: Bradford’s elite extension from the left side amplifies an elite changeup, opening the door for his 90 mph fastball to work when he commands the edges. There’s work to be done with the slider and the prone heater limits his ceiling, though the Rangers defense is sure to help him find the sixth frame constantly. A solid 15-teamer addition and borderline 12-teamer play as a Toby who has a chance to be a little more.
On The Fringe
Kumar Rocker (TEX, RHP)
I’m conflicted y’all and I hate being conflicted. It usually means I avoid the guy, get FOMO when the season starts, doubt myself and question why I wasn’t more in on the guy, OR I get too aggressive and overvalue them based on their ceiling while they turn into a “HISPTER” before my eyes. Why are you doing this to me, Rocker?!
The discomfort is complicated. His heater sits 96/97 with 7+ feet of extension (dope!) but average HAVAA and horrible iVB that prevented it from being a whiff machine despite far better command than I expected against RHB. Speaking of which, the sinker was also pristine as it landed nearly 80% of the time inside to RHB. That’s unreal! Incredible! And maybe all a fluke of small sample. It’s very possible Rocker doesn’t have the same feel for heaters start-to-start and that scares me – not to mention his low 12% SwStr rate on his four-seamer that could be wonky or a sign of things to come. I want to say it’ll get whiffs next year, but then again, he located with absurd precision and still returned just a 20% whiff rate (that’s per swing, y’all). Hmmmm.
The other issue comes with his arsenal depth. I love his slider, that’s not the issue. It’s a legit pitch to suffocate RHB and even does what I want against LHB as a proper back-foot pitch that had many batters baited successfully for a near 30% SwStr rate…and 53% strike rate. But, the four-seamer wasn’t nearly as effective, and I’m not sure there’s another offering in the tank to help Rocker take down LHB. He certainly needs a cutter or curve or change or SOMETHING to help or that will add to the volatility.
Kumar looks to be your standard HIPSTER. We will see games of 8+ strikeouts that wow us and we’ll also see disastrous outings that pain us – unless he flexes something new in the spring, of course. He’s also battling for a rotation spot out of camp at the moment, and it’s possible Gray, Mahle, and Bradford force Rocker back to Triple-A until the inevitable opening arises. That’s a whole lot of unknown for a pitcher not going the opening weekend and despite the tantilizing ceiling of a pitcher with 96/97 mph heaters at seven feet of extension + sinkers to jam RHB + fantastic sliders, I likely have to pass. UGH. I hate this.
Quick Take: Rocker hurls 97 mph with elite extension mixed with a seemingly well spotted sinker and legit slider to demolish RHB. However, his heater suffers greatly against LHB where the slider isn’t nearly as effective, granting a clear weakness for a young arm who is sure to have his Shag Rug moments. This may be more of a headache than he’s worth, even as a late flier.
Jack Leiter (TEX, RHP)
I’ll continue to stand here and tell you that Leiter’s four-seamer is stupid awesome and I can’t believe it got hit as hard as it did last year. It has all the metrics you want from velocity to shape and extension, but it had a 54% ICR to RHB and I’m still sad about it. Yes, the slider could have done more and was hung constantly, allowing batters to chase heaters and trust themselves to adapt to sliders, BUT STILL. It does make me think a sinker would help Leiter just to help get guys off the four-seamer a touch more, too. He truly has a gifted heater and I fail to believe there isn’t a tweak made here or there to let it soar.
Maybe I’m too high on the slider and waving off its horrific swing and miss ability a bit too aggressively, which is more of a question about his command moving forward than anything else. Watching Leiter, you can sense his lack of confidence with each pitch, getting glimpses of proper placement only before it slipped shortly after, enveloped by the ringing descension of our collective groans. I want to believe he can get to that point, but it may take another full year to get there and I’m already concerned about my anxiety starting Leiter with any regularity.
A third pitch would help plenty here. The sinker for RHB, sure, but anything else against LHB, which could be an increase of his curveball from 14% to 25% or more. Just something to help him stay in counts and keep batters from sitting dead-red on the heater.
I’ll be looking for Leiter to impress me in the spring. I’m skeptical he’ll earn a rotation spot over the front five and Kumar, though if he has tweaked his command or added another weapon to pave the way for his four-seamer, Leiter can force the hand of the Rangers in a hurry. I’m not banking on Leiter’s command being at a high enough level, though hot dang do I want to see it.
Quick Take: Leiter’s four-seamer is among the best, but lacks the pieces behind it to squeeze the most out of it, especially without top-of-the-line command. Expect Leiter to reach those heights in due time instead of out of the gate in April, making him an arm to watch, not one to draft.
Dane Dunning (TEX, RHP)
I appreciate that Dunning does his best to lean into the strength of the Rangers defense to throw 90 mph sinkers at seven feet of extension, hoping to jam RHB enough to ground into an out (59% ground ball rate). There are also times where his slider shows up to take down RHB and forms an alliance with his cutter to silence LHB, calling themselves the “Circuit Breakers”, like any of us actually remember Circuit City existed and would understand why they would even want to reference Circuit City anyway.
He’s a backup in case everything goes wrong and even then, I wonder if other names will get the shot instead of Dunning. It’s a desperate play chasing Dunning, who may not even be stretched out enough to go five frames when the opportunity calls. A Vargas Rule is always a possibility, though the stars need to align…along the first base line with the hockey gear on beforehand to show their city-siblings support…if that were to ever happen.
Quick Take: Dunning is sinker-first arm who sometimes has his slider and cutter (or changeup…?) cooking enough to have a surprise outing. He’s a backup for the Rangers and likely won’t get enough runway in the rotation to see the time he needs to flirt with Quality Start ability. This ain’t it.
Names To Know
Adrian Houser (TEX, RHP)
He’s a non-roster invitee to spring training and if Leiter and Rocker still need some seasoning, Houser should be expected to be used as a depth option this year. He’s not of heavy consideration for fantasy outside of deep draft-and-hold leagues, though Houser’s heavy reliance on sinkers does lean into the Rangers’ defensive strength, creating a possibility of routine starts if multiple starters are out of commission. Even then, he’s a dire Quality Start/Win play at the risk of few strikeouts and a ratio implosion.
Gerson Garabito (TEX, RHP)
There’s a chance Garabito transitions to the rotation after starting plenty in the minors, though I wouldn’t hold my breath. Garabito has a mediocre four-seamer and sinker, with a curveball he leans on heavily, but is more good than great. The changeup tried its best against LHB and it doesn’t seem be an offering that will save Garabito against LHB, making a highly suspect arm unlikely make waves if granted regular starts.
Relevant Prospects
The Rangers have a deep crew of high potential RHP who should be monitored across the 2025 season. Texas is filled with injury questions in their staff, making an aggressive promotion or two possible if any showcase a leap of polish and development – that’s including Rocker and Leiter, who will likely get the first opportunities.
Alejandro Rosario (TEX, RHP)
He throws mid-to-upper 90s with a legit splitter and slider combo that carved up A/A+ ball with a ridiculous 129/13 K per BB in 88.1 frames. Yes, that’s bonkers, yes he should be an auto-add when he gets the call. The question is when as he’s expected to start the season in Double-A for his 23-year-old season. With his recent arm-angle change that has him more over the top, he could be missing more bats upstairs and keep his walk rate consistently low through the ranks. I don’t expect the Rangers to be aggressive early, but once Rocker and Leiter have had their chances, Rosario should be circled to get a proper look – as long as his early season performance matches his 2024 campaign.
Winston Santos (TEX, RHP)
I think I like Santos the most of this crew, though I have to preface that I have limited data and information without Triple-A starts from all these arms. The report is mid-to-upper 90s heaters that miss bats with a tight slider as a true #2 offering and an unrefined changeup that flashes plus. The mechanics look smooth and reinforce the low walk rates across every level, with the heater leading the charge as a strike pitch that misses bats, likely from a great HAVAA given his relatively “short” height at an even six feet. With just under 50 frames of Double-A under his belt, he could quickly jump to Triple-A with the majors shortly after by the middle of the season. Don’t forget his name.
Emiliano Teodo (TEX, RHP)
Emiliano hurls upper-90s four-seamers that comfortably hit triple digits, though they don’t come with the whiffs you’d expect, suggesting poor shape or a sinker focus. It puts the focus on his slider and changeup, while hoping he can command the heater well enough for quick outs and turn to the secondaries confidently to find strikeouts. There’s clear potential in such a flamethrower as the slider does a great job cleaning up hitters, and the question remains if he can find the polish to bring his Double-A 12-14% walk rates down to digestible levels. With a possible start to the season in Triple-A, Teodo could be up this year. If he gets a shot, he’s a clear add, though I’d be cautious about the inefficiency he’s displayed thus far. Keep him on your radar throughout the year.
Izack Tiger (TEX, RHP)
We haven’t seen Tiger above A+ ball yet and there are concerns about his control, though he sports a big 96+ mph heater and a hard 89+ mph slider to match that suggests he can dominate batters, especially if his splitter can churn out a 60% strike rate (after all, it does pair well with his over-the-top delivery). He may jump up the system quickly as he turns just 24-years-old this year, though his lack of time in the minors in concert with the Rangers’ plethora of quality RHP in the system suggest he’s unlikely to appear in the bigs in 2025. There’s a lot of intrigue here, though. He may form into a reliever over time, but the three-pitch mix could be enough to force a rotation spot in the future.