To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team's rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don't share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y'all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y'all rock.
With PL Pro, you'll get access to these articles, an ad-free experience, access to our 1,000+ member Discord (the best place to take baseball on the internet!) our 2025 player projections infused with PLV (Pitch modeling!), our incredible PLV Apps, including Live PLV data in-season and rolling charts for Process+, and so much more.
Get two free months of PL Pro when signing up yearly with promo code SPBREAKDOWNS - Sign up here.
You can also join me LIVE on playback.tv/pitcherlist throughout the off-season as I craft these articles by watching games together, displaying my research process, and chatting with our community.
Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
Expected Starters
Jacob deGrom (TEX, RHP)
You have an opinion of deGrom. I have an opinion of deGrom. It doesn't matter what I think, just do what you're comfortable with. I need to say that first before anything as deGrom is arguably the most difficult pitcher to rank this season. After all, the hardest thing we do in the off-season is predict injury/volume and deGrom's track record brings as much haze as anyone.
Here's my thought process. First, there should not be a question of his ability. deGrom returned for three games in 2024 and displayed the same "I am the best pitcher on the planet" skillset we've known for years with 97/98 mph heaters with rise and flat attack angle + devastating sliders, greeted by a sprinkle of changeups to LHB. I truly don't believe a degradation of ability is ahead and shouldn't be weighed into the conversation.
Sadly, we have to talk about the perception of health. No, you shouldn't expect 150+ innings from deGrom. At the same time, you should expect at least 100 innings and may even get 130 this season. His injury history is littered with problems, though one of the major ones is linked to TJS, and now he has a fully repaired elbow - you know, better than some of the elbows on the verge of exploding. It's not a bonkers thought to say "give me the guy with the healthy elbow over the guy who had to get shut down for weeks in 2024." That doesn't mean deGrom is injury-free, but he's likely more stable than any season post-2020. (Fun note: deGrom was known as a "workhorse" until 2021. Makes you wonder.)
And now we need to ask ourselves "What am I getting out of my fantasy draft?" If you are in a 12-team league or shallower, you should be jumping to get deGrom. His quality-per-game is SP #1 (sorry Skenes and Skubal, it's true) and what is often forgotten in player discussion is that you're not just getting the player. You're getting the player + their replacement. The depth of SP is enormous entering 2025 and the waiver wire will be filled with worthy options to take over once deGrom inevitably hits the IL. With deGrom's massive impact when he does pitch, I'm willing to place him inside the Top 10 entering the year for 12-teamers. In 15-teamers, you may need to get quality volume in his place, though there is an argument to be made that deGrom hitting his volume ceiling is a league-winning play vs. the floor play of someone akin to Framber Valdez or George Kirby. Play to your strengths and happy drafting y'all.
Quick Take: deGrom should be considered the SP #1 in quality, though it's difficult to know how much weight should be placed on his expected workload. Taking into account the added value of the open roster spot if he goes on the IL, deGrom should be heavily considered in 12-teamer leagues and shallower.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX, RHP)
