To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. These articles are now free for everyone!
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Freddy Peralta (MIL, RHP)
Things are strange with Peralta. I’ll never quite understand why he is a stud upstairs against LHB at a 60%+ hiLoc (14-15% SwStr rates) but elects to go sub 50% hiLoc against RHB, which returned a 10% SwStr last year. I wonder what the problem is. Well, that’s just one part of it. Peralta has been a poster child for the importance of extension since he showed up, and what was a 7+ feet clip suddenly dropped to 6.7/6.8 feet last year. That may not seem like much, but it also meant he released from a taller height, worsening his HAVAA as well, and it may be all due to a larger emphasis on iVB, which jumped an inch last year to 16″, but he was displaying absurd 18+” marks in April that quickly dissipated. That was a fun time, but it seems like Peralta was chasing vert and raising his arm angle to do so, and it cost him.
There’s also the walk problem that was mostly a product of his slider failing to return strikes at a 55% rate against RHB. Yes, 54.8% strikes at 31% usage. That can’t happen, and while I want to tell you it’ll get corrected, this is Professor Chaos we’re talking about. His cross-body mechanics open the door for volatility, and I for one don’t want to deal with it.
Maybe I should. I often refer to guys like Snell, Cease, Framber, and Peralta as headaches, but you won’t drop them, and they generally always normalize across a season to their expected value. For those in 15-teamer roto leagues, what’s the difference? But for me, a manager who checks daily and wants to have an understanding of where my SP are moving forward after each start, it’s maddening. What if they don’t correct it like Cease’s 2023 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP? Peralta gives me these vibes massively, and I’d rather just…not. That’s me, of course. Peralta could maintain the 27% strikeout rate throughout the year, correct the slider’s strike rate, and possibly shift his arm angle back and find the extension again, turning him into a stud for six months. I’m open to it, just not as much as many others.
Quick Take: Peralta has clear elements to fix to correct his 1.21 WHIP and decent-not-great ERA of 2024 – revert his arm angle and extension to 2023 marks while focusing on getting his slider over the plate to RHB – but the ever-present Professor Chaos created by his cross-body mechanics has me a hesitant to reach far in drafts.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL, RHP)
At first, I had Woodruff far down my rankings. He’s recovering from shoulder surgery that removed him from all of 2024, and without viewing velocity readings, he’s progressing normally. It’s rare for a pitcher to return from a major shoulder injury and perform at anywhere near the level of Woodruff’s time as a de facto fantasy ace, and I believe we’re all on the same page with that assessment.
And yet, here I am, ranking Woodruff relatively high. Why? Because once all of the secure “yes, I have high expectations I will be rostering this pitcher all season” pitchers are off the board, you should aggressively switch your mentality toward “Who has a lot of upside and I’ll know super early if it’ll pan out?” And guess what, that’s Woodruff.
We’re going to get a better idea of him throughout the spring, of course, but when we last saw him, his four-seamer had boatloads of iVB at 96 mph, a generally flat attack angle, and slightly above average extension. It was an elite four-seamer he could command and control the pace of the game with. He even had a stellar sinker he easily spotted inside to RHB for outs, though his slider was looking a little rough compared to its former “I’m here to steal a strike, don’t mind me” pitch of previous seasons.
He also had a bit of trouble with the feel of his changeup, a pitch that was absurd against LHB in 2021 and 2022, racking up a stupid high 31% SwStr rate across 28% usage in 2022 (no, that’s not a typo). The slider and change could have been affected by his shoulder, though, and we’re hoping he can just hit the reset button.
In all likelihood, no, Woodruff won’t be back to his full self. But does he have to be? We just want a strong fastball and decent enough secondaries. Show us the 95/96 mph with a solid changeup, and we’re thrilled with Woodruff for how many innings he can get if we’re drafting him as our SP #5 or even SP #6 in 12-teamers. I’d much rather chase this easy decision of a starter over a volatile flamethrower or a boring Toby I can find off the wire. Give me the guy who has done it all before and only needs to be healthy.
Quick Take: Woodruff was elite when healthy, and despite the fears of shoulder surgeries, this could very well be the healthiest he’s been since 2021. Don’t draft him expecting over 150 innings, nor at a place where you need him to replicate his former self, but the moment you can take a shot in your drafts, you should be eyeing Woodruff.
Nestor Cortes (MIL, LHP)
Despite Cortes becoming the ire of Yankee fans everywhere, did you realize Cortes had just a 1.15 WHIP across 30 starts last season? With a 23% strikeout rate? His four-seamer’s near 19″ of vert mixed with a shockingly good attack angle (1.2+ HAVAA with that much iVB is absurdly rare) is the foundation of his approach, while cutters and sweepers fill in the gaps. His cutter was torched by LHB last year, and he really needs to axe the sweeper against RHB (maybe try to make the changeup work some more or just stick four-seamer/cutter), but the new situation in Milwaukee is exactly what you want. Cortes will be trusted to start every five days with a sizeable leash and gets to feast on weak NL Central offenses more than others.
I also wonder if leaving the Yankee crew will work well for Nestor. No more worrying about his situation with the team, meeting expectations, or possibly changing who he wants to be based on what the Yankee Front Office demands. This is all speculation, of course, though I can see Nestor as a Holly throughout the season, even if his fastball still sits at just 92 mph.
While there’s clear injury risk and a chance he’s dropped pretty soon into the season after he displays an inability to produce better than a Toby, you can simply cut him shortly into the season if it doesn’t work out. But you’re ignoring his first start. Oh snap! It’s in the Bronx. Against the Yankees. That’s assuming he’s the SP #2 or #3, which is completely possible, and I think I’m still going for it…? At the very least, you can draft Nestor reasonably late and drop him if you hate it before the other SP #4 or SP #5 fliers you considered get their first starts. That may be worthwhile.
Quick Take: Nestor walks few with a solid strikeout rate, is in a great situation in Milwaukee, and could lower his ERA if he finds a rhythm without the noise of NYC in his ear. Or his fastball could take a step back without a strong set of secondaries to back it up. There’s legit promise for a Holly here, though don’t hold on too tightly if it goes south early.
Tobias Myers (MIL, RHP)
Myers had the most boring 3.00 ERA rookie season based on how little fanfare he’s been given in the fantasy community. He had a 4.03 xERA, Nick! IT WASN’T REAL! Sure, I understand why it would say that. His HOTEL wasn’t favorable with an 81% LOB rate, fine, but did you consider that Myers may improve with another season in the bigs?
He throws a quartet of pitches regularly, from a high iVB four-seamer at 93 mph that masks both a cutter and slider underneath against RHB, the former of which he tugs way too often armside and out of the zone. The latter is both a high strike offering and hard contact mitigator and could get even better if Myers improves his feel of the cutter.
Myers has some legit potential for more against LHB, specifically with his changeup. Coming in roughly 20% of the time, his changeup returned a 17% SwStr rate (great!) with just 46% strikes (what?!). In short, it was beautiful when executed properly, but Myers frequently floated it up and way out of the zone or spiked it into the dirt. It could be a weapon for both LHB and RHB in due time, and I sure hope he can flirt with a 60% strike rate in 2025. At least not sub 50%, right?
That changeup would cover a major hole in Myers’ arsenal – a legitimate whiff pitch. The four-seamer was the only reliable putaway pitch (and that was only for RHB), and I’m not sure that can stick for another season, making Myers’ 23% strikeout rate of 2024 hard to replicate unless he adds a little juice somewhere in his arsenal. It can absolutely happen, and for a pitcher with a good baseline of command, the floor is reasonable for those in 15-teamers. Consider Myers a Toby in 12-teamers for now with a bit of upside to hint at a Holly position if he can figure out the secondaries. Don’t count him out before he’s had his sophomore season.
Quick Take: Myers has a reasonable ratio floor rooted in a solid four-seamer and a variety of offerings. Without a major whiff pitch, Myers may struggle to stay above a 20% strikeout rate, though there are clear areas of growth in his secondaries that could push him toward a 25% clip.
Aaron Civale (MIL, RHP)
It was a struggle of a season for Civale, even if it ended well. His arsenal took a step back last year with the Rays, though he did move away from the sweeper to more curves with the Brewers and it came with some success, leading to a strong 2.57 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across his final nine starts of the year. A small victory across an otherwise poor season, but maybe he’s simply more comfortable in Milwaukee.
That said, I’m still skeptical about his full arsenal for the entire season. I don’t love the focus on backdoor cutters against LHB, sinkers suddenly going backdoor to RHB (why not inside? FOR BOTH?!), and I’m not sure his curve is stellar enough to make him truly fantasy relevant for 12-teamers. He may end up as a Toby, but more likely in 15-teamers and not your 12-teamers.
Quick Take: Civale’s kitchen sink arsenal doesn’t come with stellar command, and it makes for a low strikeout arm whose ratios are no lock to be helpful across your 12-teamers. There may be some 15-teamer value here, though, as the Brewers are sure to give him a decently long leash across his outings.
On The Fringe
José Quintana (MIL, LHP)
UPDATE – 3/3/25: Quintana has signed a one-year deal with the Brewers.
There are moments Quintana can find a groove when he’s locating all of his pitchers properly, executing a stellar Neckbeard approach, and I have to wager a team is willing to give him some innings this season. He may not have a regular rotation spot, though, making it even harder to expect that groove to appear. He’s a desperate streamer if he’s given the chance.
Aaron Ashby (MIL, LHP)
UPDATE – 3/4/25: Ashby left his most recent spring training start with an apparent oblique injury.
Things have changed since 2021. I’ve changed. I know things like extension on pitchers, and I know that having 7.2 feet of extension is elite. Imagine my reaction when I found out that Ashby has not 6.2 feet of extension, but 5.2 feet of extension. Yes, that is the worst extension in baseball, thanks for asking. That low of an extension mixed with his over-the-top delivery gives him the steepest sinker in baseball, however, which is another wrinkle to this whole “Who really are you?!” question about Ashby.
Ignoring all of that, his sinker is a groundball machine, while the changeup and slider can be fantastic when executed properly. That’s another thing – Ashby doesn’t have the greatest command out there. It’s a bit inconsistent, and even back in 2021, I watched him fight it a ton. I’d need to see him earning high strike rates on his change and slider during the spring for me to feel reasonable about chasing him if he happens to find his way into a rotation spot, and even then I’d still be worried he couldn’t go six frames.
If he can find a way to harness his control (he’s pitching one-to-feet further away than everyone else, that’s not easy!), then I can see an efficient arm with legit strikeout potential. Pay attention during the spring – Ashby is the clear SP #6 here, and if Woodruff is delayed or anyone else isn’t up to snuff, Ashby will get a shot. And it could be great after getting comfortable in the pen last season in long relief. Put him in your “pay attention” column in the spring, but don’t get your hopes up.
Quick Take: Ashby’s unique delivery creates a ton of grounders and whiffability but opens the door for control issues. If he’s capable of keeping walks in check and granted an opportunity to seize a rotation spot, Ashby could provide the sneaky value I’ve dreamed for him since he appeared in the big leagues.
DL Hall (MIL, LHP)
Some bad news for Hall – he strained his lat and will be delayed quite a bit through camp. The report is that he’ll be ramping up at the end of March and not stretched out to start by Opening Day. I imagine the Brewers want to keep him stretched out inside of returning to the pen, so I’m anticipating an IL stint to kick off the year with a possible entrance to the rotation (if there’s space) in the middle of April. It’s not a good situation in the slightest for a guy who disappointed all of us by changing his arm angle and featuring much lower velocity before getting a knee sprain and missing significant time.
I don’t have high hopes like I did last year. We’re at the stage where Hall needs to prove he has the ceiling of old before we take another shot on this, let alone the whole There’s No Room problem, too. I think you’re safe leaving him on the wire, reading the data as we get it, and jumping if there’s something interesting to snag with a rotation spot in his grasp.
Quick Take: Hall is already nursing a lat injury and could be on the IL to kick off the season, leaving him without a rotation spot upon return. If space opens up and he’s flexing 94/95 mph velocity with the shape of old merged with at least one strong secondary, then we may jump back in. Only during the season, though.
Names To Know
Tyler Alexander (MIL, LHP)
The Brewers added T-Lex for some backup, possibly to snag Ashby’s spot in the pen were Ashby to slide into the rotation. Alexander is a lefty-killer with his two fastballs and sweeper, but the cutter and changeup? Not so much. You don’t want any part of this.
Robert Gasser (MIL, LHP)
Gasser underwent TJS in June of last year, and I’d be shocked if the Brewers threw him straight into the fire when he returned. I love his low release and decent extension on his four-seamer from the left side, I dig the sweeper to LHB, and it’s clear he has the skill to toss low changeups to RHB. There’s potential here, and it’s too bad we won’t see him truly spread his wings until 2026. I hope he can pick up where he left off.
Bruce Zimmermann (MIL, LHP)
Oh wow, Zim is a Brewer now? Ah, a Non Roster Invitee to the spring. Yeaaaah, I don’t think this is going to go all too well. He’s trying to do everything he can as a crafty southpaw with roughly 20-25% 90 mph fastballs, and I expect the Brewers to look elsewhere.
Elvin Rodríguez (MIL, RHP)
Elvin went to Japan for a season and signed with the Brewers this year in hopes of making the squad out of camp. It could very well be as a reliever, though he does have a few starts under his belt with the Tigers in 2022. Elvin featured a 94 mph heater with legit iVB last time we saw him, and we can only hope the slider and/or changeup have gotten far better than the last time he appeared in the bigs. Take note of him if he wiggles his way into the rotation as a “mystery box” option given how the Brewers were willing to spend on him this winter, though you should have very low expectations.
Thomas Pannone (MIL, LHP)
Pannone has been in the minors with the Cubs and Yankees after spending 2023 with the Brew Crew, and he’s returned with a Non Roster Invitation to spring. I have low expectations for the southpaw to earn a rotation spot, but as most teams do, they add a guy like Pannone in case everything goes haywire. Gotta have a backup option to your Plan C and Plan D, you know?
Easton McGee (MIL, RHP)
He’s a seam-shifted wake 90/91 mph sinkerballer who underwent TJS in 2023 and got an NRI from the Brewers. You have no idea who he is, and as much as I want this to be a real thing (19-20 inches of horizontal break on the sinker!), it’s such a dark horse that you’re wondering if that’s just a strange shadow from the oak tree.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL, RHP)
His stuff is absurd. Triple digits with a hard cutter and big curve with the only question being command. That sounds like Joe Boyle. But with an actually absurd fastball. Fair. Misiorowski will appear in camp, and I’m going to hold out hope he can hold a zone rate above 50% with the four-seamer given he’s missing a bit too far glove side and isn’t featuring the typical scattershot of heaters. It’s just a touch of timing work to be done cross-body. Don’t you normally say that’s super inconsistent? Shhhhhh. Misiorowski was also limited to just two innings during his appearances in Triple-A. Two as a starter, then either one or two frames in relief from early August through the end. Blegh. He’s not stretched out and has reliever risk written all over him. BUT THERE’S A CHANCE. He throws 97 mph with 7.4 feet of extension and a 1.7 HAVAA. This would arguably be the best four-seamer among all starting pitchers if he could just throw strikes at the top of the zone. Yeah.
Logan Henderson (MIL, RHP)
Henderson is kinda cool. He earned 17″ of vert with a great attack angle and solid command, allowing him to throw a ton of strikes and generally stay upstairs effectively despite terrible extension (six feet on the dot, blegh) and just 92/93 mph velocity. He doesn’t have a good feel for spin with his sole breaker coming from an 87 mph cutter that flutters to the plate, but his changeup feel is solid with 19″ of horizontal break. I worry the pitch’s locations are a little too high at the moment for not just a #2 pitch but the only secondary that matters. Henderson may have trouble against RHB without a better cutter or slider, though I can see him carving up LHB with the four-seamer and changeup regularly. I dig it, we just need to see one more offering for RHB.
Carlos Rodríguez (MIL, RHP)
Rodriguez is a kitchen sink arm on the 40-man roster who I wouldn’t focus on for my fantasy leagues. I’m not finding anything to point to that gets me excited to see him get more opportunities in the big leagues. It’s 92/93 mph without a filthy breaker and terrible fastball shapes. Maybe it all works well together with a whole lot of bridge pitches and blended movement, and that’s not the kind of arm we chase from the minors. Those types of arms click after a whole lot of MLB refinement, if they ever do. Womp womp.