To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Sean Manaea (NYM, LHP)
We can’t talk about Manaea without mentioning his end of season run and the arm angle change that came with it. In short, the fella lowered his arm slot dramatically and with it came a run of 3.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 28% K rate, 6% BB rate, and a 14% SwStr rate in 12 starts, averaging 6.5 IP per game. It was bonkers. The lower arm slot helped his sweeper get more depth as it effectively took down LHB and still worked against RHB, the sinker became a better pitch to RHB with better precision upstairs, and the changeup incessantly induced weak contact at just a 19% ICR against RHB.
I’m not sure what to think about it all. The biggest drawback is the 52% ICR sinker to LHB in that time, though the improved sweeper nullifies it to a degree. The changeup floated upstairs more often, but its similarity to the sinker made it churn outs more frequently than when it was located down earlier in the season. It’s as if every questionable element to this shift has a counterpoint that makes me feel a little strange but the data is the data.
I do have one clear pushback: Manaea is routinely a feel pitcher and a lower arm angle traditionally results in lower consistency and a heavier reliance on rhythm. What we saw last year was a man locked in (until the playoffs…). I’m not saying Manaea can’t be locked in again, but there’s a good chance he’s a HIPSTER akin to his former self, especially with the sinker overperforming during that stretch.
And the data isn’t completely friendly to Manaea, either. His absurd stretch came with a 5.5 hits-per-nine and a .208 BABIP that is obviously unsustainable. The changeup is not going to carry the same ICR rate for a full year, and while the sinker shouldn’t allow such extreme hard contact again, expecting massive gains to sub 40% ICR levels against LHB is a stretch. This new approach is not the blueprint of an ace.
Drafting Manaea isn’t a terrible idea, though I’ll likely be doing so later than others with a ton of upside arms in the SP pool this year who I’d rather take the chance on early in the season. Be ready to drop him early if it’s clear he’ss not the same groove we saw at the end of last season.
Quick Take: Manaea’s lower arm angle led to a sparkling run to end the year that we hope can return out of the gate in 2025. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see the same peak as he’s taken out of his rhythm, making a HIPSTER with the potential for a Holly if he’s able to stabilize the sinker against LHB and keep the changeup success against RHB.
Kodai Senga (NYM, RHP)
Here’s the situation. Senga was going inside the Top 30 SP easily entering last year (this guy had him around SP #20!), but a shoulder capsule strain sent him to the IL. He fought back, did everything right, and returned on July 26th with the same 95/96 mph velocity and… suffered a calf strain that ended his season. But it’s worse. A report came out stating Senga had triceps tightness during his initial rebound…but he returned and it doesn’t quite matter…? But wait! The Mets made the playoffs! There’s still time! Ah, right. Well, that was terrible and the velocity was down until his third outing where we saw 95/96 mph on the fastball again. And that’s all I need.
The command was terrible, I get it. I’m not alone in the theory of injured pitchers benefiting from a showcase of normal velocity for a game or two at the end of the previous season. There have been no reports of injuries or setbacks over the winter and Senga looks ready to be a workhorse on the Mets squad after missing so much time last year. That means his legit splitter and cutter are back to be a wonderful whiff/strike tandem + his four-seamer cruising around the zone and hoping to avoid bats to set up his great secondaries.
Don’t believe the 11% walk rate of his rookie year – once Senga settled into the bigs by mid-June, he returned ace-like production for the rest of the season with a sub 10% walk rate and a digestible WHIP. I’d expect the same with a 25%+ strikeout rate and solid ERA from the SP Queens desperately needs.
Quick Take: Injuries have depressed Senga’s value dramatically, though a showcase of velocity in his final appearance of the playoffs should make us confident for health entering this season. Expect his cutter and splitter to dominate with some volatility rooted in the questionable 95/96 mph four-seamer, with a few starts in April shorter than the rest to ease him back into the role.
Clay Holmes (NYM, RHP)
Y’all may think this is a weird move, but I can see it. A sinkerballer like Holmes is better positioned as a starter given how dependent it is on BABIP, which normalizes over 5/6 innings better than an incredibly small sample in the ninth. In addition, it creates quicker outs than others, especially with Holmes’ high strike rates across the board. Throw in two secondaries that earn 19%+ SwStr rates against RHB and it makes sense.
But what about LHB? That’s the question. Holmes hurled tons of sinkers to LHB last year and while the raw results weren’t great (.368 BABIP), it had a sub 40% ICR and 73% groundball rate – better than I anticipated. There isn’t a secondary that fits well into his mix as of now (sweepers and sliders aren’t ideal), though I’m expecting Holmes to showcase an expanded arsenal come spring, likely including a cutter and/or changeup.
The most difficult part about projecting the RP –> SP move is their stuff expectation. Holmes sat 96/97 mph last year and will likely drop 2-3 ticks next year in order to save enough in the tank for a full outing. Does that make his sinker that much less effective? What about the slider and sweeper performance? We simply don’t know at the moment and I can see my ranking of Holmes shifting once we get a clear idea of Holmes in camp by mid-March.
Without a clear understanding of what version of Holmes we’ll see – What is he adding to the arsenal? How will an expected velocity dip affect his stuff? – I’m inclined to test the waters with different options in my drafts. That said, I’d go for it every time if I can snag Holmes in the final few rounds. Let’s get a glimpse of what we’ll see, then make a quick decision to drop or hold for another option. In deeper formats, I think Holmes is too much of a question without a massive ceiling to turn down a safer option.
Quick Take: Holmes is transitioning to the rotation and it’s tough to make out what we’ll get. Expect an expanded arsenal and lower velocity, which may coalesce into a productive starter, or a frustrating 4.00+ ERA with a high WHIP and 20% strikeout rate.
Frankie Montas Jr. (NYM, RHP)
Update 2/17: Montas has a high-grade lat strain and will be shut down for 6-8 weeks.
Montas feels like the quintessential Mets signing. They lost Quintana and Severino, gotta fill that void with Montas! Last year brought plenty of shocking success against RHB, aided a touch at the halfway point when his velocity upped to 96/97 from 94/95, but his struggles against LHB remained. You can thank an irregular splitter as the only effective pitch…at a strike rate hovering around 50%, as the sinker and four-seamer were demolished. The cutter and slider don’t do enough to limit damage against LHB, making Montas an awfully volatile arm throughout the year.
Maybe he’s just that good against RHB for a considerable amount of time this year, though it’s more likely he regresses a bit, continues to struggle against LHB, and after a few stretches of unfortunate BABIP, gets the axe as the Mets move to their fringe options or a prospect. The upside is a decent arm for Quality Starts and Wins as the Mets are sure to let him eclipse 90 pitches if he’s keeping them in the game that day. Consider him for deep leagues and only for the rare stream in 12-teamers.
Quick Take: Montas has a job. For now. His velocity bump in July isn’t enough to eradicate his struggles against LHB, while his ability to limit hard contact from RHB is borderline for rosterability in 15-teamers and deeper. You can stream Montas if you must, but don’t expect a Vargas Rule to appear early.
On The Fringe
David Peterson (NYM, LHP)
Update 2/17: With Montas’ injury, Peterson should be locked into a rotation spot.
Soooo, this is simple. Peterson had a near 30% strikeout rate and sub 5% walk rate last year–What, no he didn’t!–against LHB. Oh. That means…Yeah. 16.5% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate against RHB. The performance against LHB is somewhat believable, though we should expect his 24% SwStr rate and 31% putaway rate on his four-seamer to come down, even if he was magnificent placing the pitch at the top of the zone, exploiting his elite 7.1 feet of extension to feature the four-seamer as a surprise pitch off his sinker. That sinker did an excellent job jamming LHB and letting his elite slider do the rest with a near 20% SwStr rate. In fact, all three of these pitches returned a putaway rate of about 21%, which explains the 30% strikeout rate. Simple.
That’s not the problem, of course. RHB had an easy time with the sinker and the four-seamer wasn’t as pristine, nor as much of a surprise, leading to plenty of hits off both pitches. His slider had its moments as a backfoot breaker, but when it missed, it was demolished. Its 16% mistake rate to RHB is one of the worst in the majors and that can’t happen, David. IT CAN’T HAPPEN.
None of his pitches returned a 20% putaway rate against RHB. Peterson issued six walks to LHB last year while issuing forty to RHB in the same timeframe. Something has to change here and fortunately, there’s a solution. Say it with me y’all: A knuckl–The changeup.
With over seven feet of extension from the left side, Peterson is made to dominate RHB with a changeup. He’s tried heavily and he came close last season but came up a bit short with just a 57% strike rate and paltry 12% SwStr rate. It induced outs and a superb 27% ICR rate, yes, but it has to do more. It has to be the pitch in the same way Ragans, Skubal, and Anderson have silenced RHB over the years. Peterson has tried to do so in previous years and come up short, but if he’s able to figure it out and pair it with his gains against LHB, this could be something real.
The upside is a 25% strikeout arm at a mid 3s ERA with a 1.10/1.15 WHIP. The walks would come down, the hits would come down, and strikeouts would rise from 20% last year. However, if that changeup isn’t there (or we fail to see any gains against RHB), I encourage everyone to move on to other things. He was fortunate last year to carry a 2.91 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP – his HR rate is sure to even out this year – and this will hurt if the changes aren’t made.
Quick Take: You may have a sleeper in Peterson if he can figure out how to take down RHB effectively. His improvements against LHB look mostly legit (the four-seamer won’t perform that well again) and there is a path toward legitimacy if the changeup can step forward. That extension, y’all.
Paul Blackburn (NYM, RHP)
Oh right, you’re still here. Blackburn gets by as your Bassit-type: throw lots of pitches and keep ’em guessing as they hope it’s a four-seamer. The changeup had plenty of success against LHB while the cutter was the overall “stabilizer”, if you can call his outings stable. The arsenal outlines Blackburn as a desperate streamer and a possible NL-Only Toby if he’s regularly starting for the Mets. You’re really just chasing a rare Win or decent ERA on a given night and you deserve a better time playing fantasy baseball.
As if you needed another reason to ignore Paulie Punchouts, Blackburn is behind on his throwing program and it may cost him the rotation spot out of camp if he needs to ramp up a touch more for an extra week or two.
Quick Take: Blackburn is a bit delayed with his throwing program and is the ultimate depth piece you want to ignore for fantasy. Sure, he’ll have some decent starts here and there, but you’ll have no idea when.
Tylor Megill (NYM, RHP)
I felt like we saw the light at the start of 2022 with TyLord Megill appearing and what we’ve seen since is a poorly spotted four-seamer without any development in his secondary pitches. The four-seamer should be an effective offering, but its 44-48% ICR against LHB and RHB takes its toll, even if the pitch can generate whiffs at a 14% clip. There’s simply no pitch to support it – the slider and cutter either miss well out of the zone or float over the plate. The changeup…it doesn’t exist.
That was the case until August 30th of last year. Megill got the chance to start with Blackburn’s back burning him and he showed us something new. A sinker to RHB. It was glorious – 76% strikes with a 25% ICR and over 50% O-Swing as he featured it 33% of all pitches to RHB – showcasing a new Megill who could earn whiffs with his four-seamer as a surprise upstairs. Sure, he still had wonky four-seamer locations, but a 17% SwStr to RHB with his four-seamer? Now that’s good stuff!
There’s still a question against left-handers and I’m not sure what to do there, but you know what’s kinda hilarious? Megill has 95/96 mph velocity with 98th percentile extension (7.5 feet!) that speaks to an elite heater but his four-seamer has dead-zone movement and gets hit hard…like Logan Gilbert’s four-seamer. Yep. The comp you never saw coming. The difference here is Gilbert’s slider – it was the #1 ranked PLV slider in the bigs – that sits 3-4 ticks higher than Megill’s and has six inches more drop than Megill’s similarly hard cutter. So, there’s your answer Megill. Just figure out how to get more drop on your cutter and throw that thing incessantly. I know that feels like a joke, but if Megill can figure out how to throw a strong 88 mph cutter/slider for strikes down and in town, there’s legit upside here. You just don’t find 95/96 mph with 7.5 feet of extension often, y’all.
Quick Take: I am once again asking you to keep your eye on Tylor(d) Megill. If he shows up to camp embracing the sinker inside to RHB and an improved cutter or slider, he could take a leap in a heartbeat. His velocity and extension grant him the foundation for more if he unlocks that final piece.
Griffin Canning (NYM, RHP)
Oh snap, the Angels traded him! He’s in Atlanta no–oh. They released him. The Mets it is! Here you go, Flushing Meadows. A pair of deadzone fastballs with a changeup and slider that we hope don’t find enough of the zone to get pummeled. He’s the ultimate discount Cleveland starter with horrific heaters and whiff potential breakers, but sadly, it’s hard to figure out where the strikes come from to get to two strikes, and hopefully he can get his putaway rates back up to their 2023 levels. The goal for the Mets will be to fix Canning’s slider, a pitch that was punished by LHB far more in 2024 after losing two inches of drop, while there’s little hope to save the four-seamer. Maybe throw it less than the slider and changeup against RHB? I dunno, it’s a massive gamble starting Canning in any capacity when he does get a chance to start, which doesn’t come with the ceiling we saw earlier in his career. It’s like turning on both the Microwave and Coffee Maker at the same time – the electricity is gone.
Quick Take: With the Montas injury, Canning has a chance to beat out Megill and Blackburn (who is a little delayed) for the fifth spot in the rotation (or is it a six-man?) and he feels like bait to me. The slider and change have whiffs but make many mistakes while the four-seamer just isn’t good. He’s not it y’all.
Names To Know
José Buttó (NYM, RHP)
The Mets have relied on Butto as the backup starter and for long relief in the pen and he had himself a wonky season. His four-seamer and changeup cooked against RHB with an absurd 20% SwStr rate on the fastball that had no right to do so, joining the changeup with a 30%+ putaway rate. The sinker was a stable strike and out earner as it jammed RHB inside and life was cool.
Until the lefties showed up. Despite featuring 60%+ strikes across nearly all of his pitches to RHB, only his slider eclipsed the mark against LHB. Butto essentially said “either hit this changeup out of the zone or go walk to first,” and the approach led to aa 2.55 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP…despite a 12% walk rate. The dude needed a 5.0 hits-per-nine to return such a low WHIP. What a wild season.
No, this should not happen for another season, though his 2023 wasn’t so far in the other direction that I’d believe Butto has zero value if he’s called upon to be a regular starter for the Mets. Consider him a possible streamer should the time arrive and maybe even a Toby in 15-teamers.
Brandon Waddell (NYM, LHP)
The 30-year-old signed with the Mets this offseason after spending a trio of season in the KBO and I seriously can’t find anything about him. The southpaw limited walks across fourteen starts and seven frames with a strikeout per inning, suggesting he can be a strikethrower if the Mets need him for a spot start here and there. Expect him to start in the minors where we can get a better understanding of what he can do and take note inside our PLV app. I have low expectations and hope for a Toby at best when he gets his shot.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Christian Scott (NYM, RHP)
Scott underwent TJS and the internal brace procedure last summer, which could mean he returns this season, though I’d expect him to sit in the minors and let him find his confidence again before pushing him back into the spotlight. It was a fun time last year when he got his call, showcasing a 94+ mph four-seamer with seven feet of extension and a flat approach angle of 1.4 HAVAA, which paired well with his sweeper to RHB, but the 87 mph slider was lackluster and his solution for LHB was… a splitter. So yeah, LHB crushed him. When Scott returns, I hope we’ll see a sinker inside to RHB to take advantage of his extension, while tightening the slider to be more of 89 mph cutter to hopefully silence LHB.
Brandon Sproat (NYM, RHP)
There’s been a whole lot of talk about Sproat as of late as the #1 Mets prospect and while I wonder if we’ll see him early in the year, I imagine the Mets want to see Sproat dominate at Triple-A before getting clearance. After all, four of his seven starts in Triple-A came with at least 4 ER, with four games of 2 Ks or fewer. It was rough. Sproat’s velocity is still there, flexing a heater sitting 97 mph in a few games, but the vert and extension are low percentile marks. His breakers show promise in a cutter, slider, and curve, and there is a changeup at play, making me curious what we get across a larger sample of not being whatever that was in August and September. Sit back and see how this plays out in April and May.
Blade Tidwell (NYM, RHP)
2024 did not serve Tidwell…well. Life was sparkling after dominating Double-A, but disaster fell across 85 frames of Triple-A with a 5.93 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 20% strikeout rate, and 14% walk rate. You can ignore Tidwell based on those marks alone for an early impact this year, though you should be aware of what he does in case it returns in April or May, prompting a possible rotation spot by the summer. The hope is for Tidwell to return to form with a 95-97 mph four-seamer and an array of breakers to get him to the finish line. We did see a great final outing of the season with 10 K/0 BB across six frames that included a 17″ iVB four-seamer at 95 mph with a well spotted slider and sweeper, hinting at what could be early this year. Let’s hope we get it.
Nolan McLean (NYM, RHP)
He’s a raw pitching prospect after initially being drafted as a two-way player in 2023 and it may take a full year of development to iron out his entire approach for the bigs. He boasts mid-90s velocity and could form a collection of secondaries, including a fantastic sweeper to take out RHB and a tight high 80s cutter to help earn strikes. Pay attention to McLean – if he gets promoted to Triple-A and wipes out batters, he could shoot up prospect rankings this year and make a statement before the end of the year. In the meantime, I’m going to twiddle my thumbs until I get Triple-A data.
Jonah Tong (NYM, RHP)
Uhhh, Tong is pretty cool. He’s low-to-mid 90s with absurd over-the-top verticality that he gets over 20″ of iVB and pairs it with a low-to-mid 80s curveball from the slot. He just got promoted to Double-A at the end of last year and will likely continue to push his way into Triple-A before getting the call, but I can see something legit here with a high heater + big hook + a cutter or changeup (I’m hoping for the latter) to get through lineups. The greatest benefit of the vertical approach is control as it is far easier to stay in the zone north-south vs. east-west, which makes me believe his 10% walk rates will come down over time. There’s something here.
Jonathan Santucci (NYM, LHP)
Drafted in the second round of 2024, he’s a southpaw in the mid-90s with a two-plane breaker and a developing changeup. That’s fun and even though he’s 22-years-old after becoming the ace of Duke, we shouldn’t expect him to flirt with the bigs until 2026 at the earliest.
Dom Hamel (NYM, RHP)
There are some areas of intrigue with Hamel – 17″ of vert on the four-seamer, sweepers and cutters that he locates decently well – but he struggled with his command in Triple-A, leading to a 13% walk rate and absurdly high 10.18 hits-per-nine. Until Hamel makes an adjustment to find the zone more often, we (and the Mets) should ignore Hamel.