To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
With PL Pro, you’ll get access to these articles, an ad-free experience, access to our 1,000+ member Discord (the best place to take baseball on the internet!) our 2025 player projections infused with PLV (Pitch modeling!), our incredible PLV Apps, including Live PLV data in-season and rolling charts for Process+, and so much more.
Get two free months of PL Pro when signing up yearly with promo code SPBREAKDOWNS – Sign up here.
You can also join me LIVE on playback.tv/pitcherlist throughout the off-season as I craft these articles by watching games together, displaying my research process, and chatting with our community.
Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Dylan Cease (SDP, RHP)
Is this the year Cease finally throws a cutter? Like actually throws a cutter? Will you please stop this, Nick? It would be so fun though! It gets more vertical drop than expected and instead of last year’s absurdly brief stint featuring the pitch to LHB when he featured it up-and-in, it theoretically would work down-and-away as a called strike pitch that sets up the backdoor slider and high heater. It could even be the standard called strike pitch to RHB as well, which he needs help with every so often, too.
But I digress. Cease fixed his two largest problems last year and it was (mostly) fantastic. Sliders against RHB went from the abyss that is a sub-60% strike rate to a near 65% clip without sacrificing whiffs or ICR (it was unreal), and four-seamers solved their high ICR problem to LHB by not giving in as much and dropping their strike rate five points. It led to more walks against LHB, but with his improvements to RHB, the scales still favored Cease’s adjustments for a fantastic season.
So once again, I have no idea where to rank Cease. On one hand, I want to believe he’s made these adjustments with room to develop further (just not that curve or sweeper or change, okay? They don’t solve the problems you have of finding reliable strikes to set up the slider), but I also know Cease’s command fades at random times during the year, especially against LHB. Last year’s 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP look fantastic on paper, but the 6.5 hit-per-nine is sure to rise (even with 38% of batters walked or punched out) with the Padres middling defense and it comes down to something like a trio of starts. I’m not joking. Cease’s seasons can be scrutinized to be three starts that are either great or poor (think 15 ER vs 3 ER!). That’s the difference between the 4.58 ERA and 3.47 ERA and as a fantasy manager, I hate arms who bring chaos in the way that Cease does. But alas, he’s as much of a lock as you’ll find for 200+ strikeouts, while the WHIP should be low if he can keep throwing sliders for strikes and refusing to give in his four-seamers. FINE, I’ll rank him at #16, but no higher y’all.
Quick Take: The ceiling is higher than those ranked a bit above him, but the floor is what terrifies me, especially as a manager in-season who often doesn’t know what to expect. If Cease can continue to throw sliders middle-away to LHB for strikes while limiting damage on his four-seamer (and maybe add a reliable #3 pitch for strikes?), then he can fend off his 2023 demons.
Michael King (SDP, RHP)
Why do I love King? Because he’s a command pitcher with a 31% strikeout rate against RHB. His sinker is spotted away for called strikes then suddenly carves up the handle of the bat inside on the next pitch, while his sweeper gets whiffs away, and his elite changeup returned a near 30% putaway rate that I see replicating for another season. In fact, I want him to throw the slowball more, while possibly limiting his four-seamer’s 50% early usage (the heater is his worst offering but can be effective upstairs in two-strike counts).
Like many others, LHB is the puzzle to solve, though King has a head start with his phenomenal changeup. Its 22% SwStr rate and 68% strikes at 36% usage are elite and it will continue to dominate once again in 2025. However, his four-seamer was featured a quarter of the time and LHB craved to see it. The pitch was used a touch less after King’s early struggles, but I think there’s another adjustment to lower it further.
That solution could be the slider. At 86/87 mph, the gyro slider could be an effective strike pitch over the plate, while the sinker may be enough as one of the few front-hip sinkers thrown early in counts. Throw in the back-door sweeper for called strikes and the rare four-seamer, and King’s higher walk rate and ICR marks are sure to come down.
I look at the rankings and asked “Who are the pitchers capable of returning 180 frames of 25-30% strikeouts with great ratios?” King is one of the few, especially with his command. After all, from May 4th through the end of the season, King returned a 2.42 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 29% K rate, and 7% BB rate in 137.2 IP over 24 starts. King’s April was the first of his career getting the freedom to start regularly and he clearly needed a moment to figure out the role. Expect continued growth in the year ahead.
Quick Take: Once King settled in as a starter in May, he dominated akin to an SP #1, with production across the board. He still needs a #2 pitch against LHB, but the changeup and overall command are good enough that I’d bank on him figuring it out across the year. He’s safer than last year’s 1.19 WHIP would suggest.
Yu Darvish (SDP, RHP)
Hey y’all, get Darvish’s ghastly 2023 out of your head. That was a clear outlier in Darvish’s career, featuring an 8.8 hit-per-nine out of nowhere versus a career mark of 7.4 that Darvish beat with a 7.2 clip in 2024. His season was cut short not by injury, but by a personal issue that forced him to head home and now that he’s back with the crew, I see the same WHIP-friendly, somewhat HR-prone, lovely K-BB% arm we’ve known for years. Sure, he’ll always carry a bit of risk of a blowup given the way his daily arsenal flows like paint sliding down a canvas, but the depth of quality pitches will make him relevant.
Did you forget? The sinker masterfully lands inside to generate outs to RHB, while all three breakers (slider, sweeper, curve) return sub 30% ICR marks against RHB at 52% usage combined. That’s bliss against the common enemy.
He has a harder time against LHB, with the slider returning a nightmarish 50%+ ICR across each of his last two seasons (however, that may be a pitch classification error with the slider jumping from 82 mph in 2022 to 85/86 the last two years…), and all but the four-seamer and sinker struggling to land under the 40% clip. Strikes and whiffs are still present, though, and I imagine figuring out this attack is the biggest off-season plan. Maybe the cutter at 90/91 mph is the solution? Regardless, Darvish will be Darvish – helpful with a few blowups as he gets Wins for the Padres. You want this, especially at his cheap cost.
Quick Take: Don’t run away from Darvish in the mid-late rounds. He’s still a reliable starter whose floor is higher than others due to his vast arsenal. Expect a strikeout per inning as he constantly finds the sixth, while the WHIP is sure to stay low. Here’s to hoping the HR bug doesn’t hit him too hard this year and you have a discount SP #3 for your fantasy teams.
Nick Pivetta (SDP, RHP)
Pivetta is pretty straightforward. His RHB approach is four-seamers + sweepers, while LHB see four-seamers + curves. Alex Fast asked me at the end of the year “Why do you think Pivetta’s four-seamer gets hit so much harder by RHB than LHB?” and the answer is insightful – Pivetta’s arm angle difference between fastballs and sweepers is much larger than fastballs and curveballs. In other words, it’s easier to read his four-seamer off the sweeper than the curve. And that’s a problem he needs to fix.
There is a fun solution, though – bring back the cutter we saw in 2023. With the same drop, too. Seriously, it lost two inches of drop and it may be why its SwStr rate dropped over 10 points, but hot dang, he needs to not be so black/white with such a clear read to RHB. There’s hope he can figure out this problem in San Diego and possibly return his first sub 4.00 ERA in…no. NO. Has Pivetta never had a sub 4.00 ERA in the majors?! WOW.
It may look like he’s en route to the career milestone early in the season as he pitches in HR suppressing San Diego across those spring months, though it’s sure to normalize across the summer and with Pivetta’s career 1.53 HR/9 rearing its ugly head by July and ruining your fun, especially in a park than emphasizes RHB HRs. But hey, Pivetta still gets a ton of strikeouts and will be trusted to toss 90+ pitches on a winning club. Y’all know I love saying that last line but it’s so important. That makes Pivetta a HIPSTER who will destroy your heart when those longballs show up, but may have a way to limit them a little better in the year ahead. And yes, he’ll likely spend some time on the IL, but he’s had at least 140 IP in all of his last four seasons. Don’t think about that too much.
Quick Take: If you went for ratios early, Pivetta is a great addition later for strikeouts, even if it may not be for a full 170+ frames. Expect success early until the heat of the summer sends balls over the walls, though if he figures out how to not be so two-pitch against RHB, it could be the first sub 4.00 ERA of his career.
On The Fringe
Kyle Hart (SDP, LHP)
Hart was the KBO’s equivalent of the Cy Young winner last season and the Padres signed him with the full intent of being their SP #5. MLB Trade Rumors outlines Hart with a four-seamer up and exceptional changeup underneath, an approach that we’ve seen work for LHP across the majors. There’s a sweeper to deal with LHB as well and it led to a 29% strikeout rate in 157 IP with just 6% walks. It’s the KBO, of course, but that should outline his control and a fair amount of strikeout potential.
And of course, Lance Brodzdowski did a stupid good breakdown of Hart via his must-read Substack. He isn’t so confident in the stuff here and it makes all the sense.
Huh. I wonder how good that changeup actually is and if the sweeper is good enough to make LHB suffer. I suspect the four-seamer is a weak point that he’ll have to get crafty finding spots for, but maybe a sinker against LHB and a heavy focus on the slowball + backdoor sweepers will be enough to mask the pitch. This is all speculation, of course, but I’d be willing to take a shot in an NL-Only league as a sleeper Toby play. H*ck, he could be a sneaky play in 15-teamers or even a streamer in 12-teamers given regular starts in San Diego and no other clear options to steal the SP #5 spot. Pay attention.
Quick Take: Hart may be a crafty southpaw with a great changeup who does enough to give you middling ratios across six frames for a Win and potential QS. Or be a detrimental player who isn’t worth your time. At the very least, he has the inside lane to the SP #5 spot for the Padres and there’s value to be had in that.
Randy Vásquez (SDP, RHP)
His best quality is jamming sinkers mostly inside to RHB and pairing it with a heater that can land upstairs at 94/95 mph to earn some whiffs. Sadly, the curve is inconsistent, and his time against LHB is rough. We’re talking zero pitches above a 10% SwStr rate against LHB and the rare days he succeeds are when he’s able to work the curve better than usual. It’s possible he’s in contention for a rotation spot (especially if Cease is dealt) but it’s far from something you actually want to go after outside of an NL-Only league. He lacks any excitement you need for the heavy majority of leagues.
Quick Take: Randy needs something new inside his arsenal to deal with LHB while he doesn’t overwhelm RHB nearly as well as he needs to for us to endure his low floor.
Matt Waldron (SDP, RHP)
We all want Waldron to be a thing. A knuckleballer in this day and age?! He does too, you know. Sadly, it’s up to everything else in his arsenal to be good enough when the knuckleball isn’t there, and you know the answer. The fastballs and sweeper aren’t enough? Sure aren’t. Thing is, the knuckleball is arguably his worst pitch given its inconsistency and demolition when batters make contact, but then again, his other offerings have their results because they can act as a surprise pitch, not the main pitch.
In short, let me direct you to the first shirt we made at Pitcher List back in 2015. Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Quick Take: The knuckleball is cool and fun and no one knows when it’ll actually be effective. Waldron’s supporting cast has good results but mostly because it isn’t used a whole lot relative to the knuckler. On their own, it’s not enough to stand on as a proper starter.
Names To Know
Jhony Brito (SDP, RHP)
Brito’s changeup is legit. The problem? He has nothing else. He does the right thing with his sinker to lean heavily inside to RHB and induce as many outs as possible, but the four-seamer is rough and he hasn’t flexed a strong breaker. The Padres sent him to the minors last year to stretch out as a starter again and figure out what else he can whip together and there is acutally something here in an 87/88 mph slider that returned a 5.36 PLV during those starts. I wonder if the Padres will give him a shot in camp to prove the pitch is real and good enough to work against both LHB and RHB, but I’m not holding my breath.
Stephen Kolek (SDP, RHP)
After pitching out of the pen in 42 games last season, Kolek is apparently stretching out to be a starter in the spring to act as more potential SP depth for the Friars. He carried impressive ICR marks against both LHB and RHB with his four-seamer, sinker, and cutter, but I’m not buying it. He doesn’t seem to have absurd command, nor do these pitches appear to be anything special. The four-seamer is saved for two-strike counts (explains the SwStr rate), the sinker is a bit all over the place, and the cutter is meh. I have very low expectations here.
Luis Patiño (SDP, RHP)
Patiño underwent TJS in spring 2024 and is now throwing bullpens…which means he’s still very far away. Don’t expect Patiño healthy until the summer and even then, is he going to be a productive arm? He hasn’t flexed the absurd ceiling we dreamed of when he was a prospect and was nothing of note after being dealt from the Rays. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres waited until 2026 for Patiño to get an actual shot.
Joe Musgrove (SDP, RHP)
Musgrove is missing the entire season with TJS. It’s not fun at all. This isn’t like “Maybe in September!”, this is all of 2025. Can’t wait to have no clue where you rank you entering 2026, Joe!
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Henry Baez (SDP, RHP)
Baez has eight Double-A starts under his belt and isn’t a major strikeout arm. It’s a decent fastball and splitter merged with a curve and it’s possible that’s enough to hint at a rotation spot for a team with little depth, but I’m not doing a whole lot when he gets the call.
Omar Cruz (SDP, LHP)
He’s a southpaw with a great changeup and a not a whole lot else. If he can figure out the rest of the arsenal to support it, the Padres could give him a shot this year when in need of starts. Sadly, that’s not a great endorsement and he’ll be a major “wait and see” for most leagues.
Austin Krob (SDP, LHP)
From the left side, Krob features a strong breaker that catalyzed a trio of double-digit strikeout games in Double-A last year, but he lacks a supporting cast to turn him into a legit arm to target for fantasy. He needs to add velocity and a changeup to get us interested and let’s monitor his development in 2025 when he makes the jump to Triple-A.
Ryan Bergert (SDP, RHP)
Bergert’s breaker has kept him around, but like the other fringe 2025 SPs here, he lacks the explosiveness to make him a contender for your fantasy teams when he gets the call.