To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
Expected Starters
Shane McClanahan (TBR, LHP)
Injuries are the worst, aren’t they? The announced plan for McShane is for the ’22 stud to toss roughly 140-150 IP in his first year back from TJS, suggesting he starts slow in April and ramps up in full by May. The biggest issue in that expected volume is his lack of time spent on the IL – his reduction of IP would come from skipped or diminished starts, preventing managers from capitalizing on an open roster spot to cover roughly a month of missing production.
I’ve heard concern of McClanahan’s ability once returning from a second TJS and I’m not as phased as others. The data points on “second TJS” are a bit noisy and with more procedures done in recent years, McShane is becoming one of the few young stud arms to endure the procedure twice. As long as the procedure is done correctly (a relatively safe assumption), it should be like any other return from TJS and McClanahan should be back to normal.
We shouldn’t call what McShane does as normal, though. His 97 mph heater paired with elite extension and solid vert sets the tone against RHB, while the changeup demolishes RHB. The slider continues to haunt LHB as well and the package is clear as day. The drop in strikeouts in 2023 can be blamed on his slide piece’s inability to put batters away on both sides of the plate (10 point drops in putaway rate to pedestrian marks!), while the four-seamer fell to a ghastly 12% putaway rate against LHB. It happens and likely won’t be replicated.
The rise in hits and walks can be partially blamed by those at-bats getting extended, though his struggles to earn curveball strikes to LHB had its influence, too. These are all minor issues in the grand scheme and generally normalize over time, but there is one major factor this year we can’t ignore: moving to George Steinbrenner field (a hitter paradise) from Tropicana field (a pitcher paradise). Expect more HRs from LHB as long as McClanahan’s four-seamer continues to lose command against lefties. I’ll still hold out a touch of hope for a sinker to appear, but that’s a pipe dream. Maybe one day.
Despite these concerns and the limited frames, I love the fact that Shane is a pitcher I trust to produce at a high quality per inning when on the bump. There is absurd Top 5 SP upside here, of course, though that will likely be reserved for 2026.
Quick Take: He’s returning from his 2nd TJS and should be expected for 140+ IP of quality fantasy production with an elite heater, changeup, and pair of breakers. However, the new home park + stretched out volume equates to a lower seasonal impact than other health risks who can be moved to the IL.
Taj Bradley (TBR, RHP)
We’re all going to be wrong about Taj because there is no right answer. Bradley has all the makings of a HIPSTER with a trio of pitches that obliterate batters on their best days and become lolipops landing over the fences on their worst. His four-seamer will be a touch worse without the Trop aiding its iVB and with its massive struggles against LHB, I worry his near 1.50 HR/9 is almost guaranteed to rise in the upcoming season, though that heater’s results may improve not on its own, but by growth in his cutter and splitter.
Both secondaries made a large impact in 2024. The cutter’s command against RHB took a huge leap, jumping near 15 points in gloveside location and tunneling consistently with his heater to induce a phenomenal 28% ICR across 27% usage. However, it didn’t progress against LHB as he frequently tugged the pitch inside and off the plate to return a detrimental 55% strike rate. Those LHB problems were dampened a touch by his new splitter with a near 20% SwStr rate and 68% strike rate, but mistakes were often made and pitches were clobbered for a 45% ICR.
I worry that Bradley’s command undulates plenty throughout the season, making for glistening stretches as a bonafide ace smeared with bombastic disasters. It’s maddening for a fantasy manager and it has me ranking Bradley far lower than the great K-BB% suggests. I see Bradley much closer to Nick Pivetta than Dylan Cease, unfortunately, and that confusion makes me suggest drafting other arms.
Quick Take: Bradley’s wavering command makes for a pitcher who looks great on paper but fails to put all the pieces together for a full season. His four-seamer isn’t as elite as his contemporaries, making his command of the entire arsenal the deciding factor. There will be many days when your reluctance to draft Bradley will look brilliant, just try not to get FOMO when he fans 30 batters in four games.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR, RHP)
Command, you fiend! It’s the only concern I have with Pepiot as he’s equipped with an elite four-seamer (sub 2% mistake rate against both RHB and LHB is BONKERS) and his slider + change both profile to be excellent offerings, on top of a budding cutter he started using at the end of last season against LHB. The package speaks to 25%+ strikeouts given the overpowering heater, though the secondaries open the door for problems in the future, especially moving to a HR-heavy home park.
What should excite you is the clear regression coming for his slider and changeup in two-strike counts – regression toward better efficiency as each had terrible putaway rates against their supposed advantageous opponents. Changeups held a 17% putaway rate against LHB, the slider an unseen 13% clip against RHB, and yet Pepiot still carried a 26% strikeout rate. A rate eclipsing 30% is very much in his reach.
But will he be efficient enough to exercise that rate through six full frames? I watched a lot of Pepiot and it was painful enduring the starts where Pepiot lost faith in his secondaries, forcing endless heaters nibbling the edges with varying success. The evidence is in their strike rates against RHB, hovering 60% each when they should be comfortably above the mark, if not near 65% with his slide piece. The changeup underperformed as well, featuring a minimal 12% SwStr to LHB, which has all the signs pointing toward dominance in the future.
Pepiot is only one full season into his career, though, and given the strides taken in both his four-seamer and overall approach, I’m willing to take the chance that he’ll improve once again in 2025. Let’s do it.
Quick Take: Pepiot improved his skillset during his first year in Tampa as a proper starter and has a clear path for growth to ascend as a Top 20 SP option. The downside is potential frustrating with HRs in his new park and wavering secondary feel, though the highs should dwarf the lows.
Shane Baz (TBR, RHP)
2024 gave us the return of Baz, who wasn’t nearly as explosive as his 2021 debut. The four-seamer was steeper and failed to earn whiffs galore, while the slider lost over 200 rpm of spin (the heater and curve did not), leading to a dramatic reduction of his SwStr rate from 20-25% to a pedestrian 11% clip. The pitch’s ineffectiveness led to Baz embracing his curveball across his final seven games, which was brilliant, to say the least. The hook was a reliable strike offering to both LHB and RHB, tunneling with Baz’s high four-seamer to consistently land at the bottom of the zone and below it.
The hope is for Baz to retain the fastball/curve approach for 2025 while working to get his slider back on track. It may be too idealistic to believe Baz will have the same feel for his hook in the upcoming year, while it’s a tall ask for a pitcher to overhaul his favorite breaker and regain 200+ RPM of spin.
One overlooked skill is Baz’s consistency. I place his command a decisive tier above Bradley and Pepiot, which makes me optimistic he can find a better third option than the lagging slider or the middling changeup against LHB, though the 22% strikeout rate of last season could be a regularity if the slider doesn’t return to form.
At the very least, expect the Rays to use Baz regularly every five days, even with his 80 IP workload in 2024 – he’s rehabbed long enough and the Rays need innings from Baz in the year ahead. With regular starts on the horizon for the first time in his career, Baz has a chance to blossom into a reliable stud, even if the hope for a 30% strikeout rate may be out of the picture.
Quick Take: The foundation of command and a strong fastball + curve create a relevant floor while there’s plenty of room to grow outside of his fastball/breaker mix. Though he may not be a true 180 IP workhorse, 150 IP with solid ratios and at least a strikeout per inning is very much a possibility.
On The Fringe
Zack Littell (TBR, RHP)
The Rays had an arduous 2024 including moments with a full rotation on the IL, allowing Littel to grab a sizeable 29 starts across the season and you have to give him respect for a 3.65 ERA across 150+ frames. He did so by squeezing as much as he possibly could out of his arsenal, though, and it may be tough for him to hold the fifth spot of the rotation.
His fastballs are terrible. Littell is aware and avoids them as much as he can, though the sinker and four-seamer combined for nearly 40% of his arsenal last year and it stung. The slider was his savior as a heavy strike pitch against both RHB and LHB, featured 35% of the time universally, though it acted more like a cutter with its low SwStr rate and focus on “efficient strikes”.
That slider couldn’t carry the burden alone and Littell’s splitter did all it could to get him through games. It was an efficient weapon against RHB for a 23% SwStr rate across 67% strikes, but it came up short against LHB for just a 60% strike rate and plenty of hard contact. It’s no fun relying on a splitter as the final piece of an arsenal and I’d hate to be a fantasy manager believing the splitter/slider combo can overcome two very launchable fastballs (in homer-friendly George Steinbrenner stadium, no less).
Quick Take: Littell’s fastballs are bottom of the barrell, forcing a collection of sliders and splitters to find a way to the finish line. It’s difficult to bank on Litell’s 3.63 ERA to be replicated in 2025 as he moves to a worse park and has to find the same peak for another year. Expect Littell to get bounced from the rotation assuming no other openings appear.
Drew Rassmussen (TBR, RHP)
I’m all for grabbing Rasmussen in 12-teamers. But he could end up in the bullpen! Yes, and then we drop him if he does. If he’s in the rotation, you have an absurd contact suppressor rooted in a lively four-seamer/sinker mix with one of the better cutters around that’s just so hard to read. But the cutter wasn’t good in 2024! Very fair – his feel for the cutter took a significant step back from what we saw in 2022 and 2023, though I’m willing to give him the ‘ole “Small sample size” pass for now.
I wouldn’t expect a 25%+ strikeout rate from Rasmussen again given his lean into cutters and sinkers, though the four-seamer’s velocity did jump to 96/97 (possibly because of his limited usage and time in the pen) and it’s possible the four-seamer adds another weapon to putaway RHB. The floor is fantastic with a reliable ratio arm who should sit comfortably above a 20% strikeout rate, the only question is usage at this point.
Quick Take: Rasmussen’s trio of fastballs via four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters with varying movement baffles hitters into weak outs, while there is still strikeout upside to be had. Be cautious: He may be regulated to the pen after his long injury history, but he’s worth the late pick on the chance he gets the starting gig out of camp. Be ready to drop him if he becomes a reliever.
Joe Boyle (TBR, RHP)
Do I need to write about Boyle? His stuff isn’t actually Top 5 SP stuff (97/98 mph velocity, but mid shape + slider at 88 mph and mid shape) and the dude can’t locate. He hurls and burls pitches, staring at the catcher’s mitt conveniently located down the heart of the plate, and getting frustrated when his four-seamer holds a 54% strike rate. He has RP written all over him and let’s say he actually finds a way to throw strikes with consistency next season at a 65%+ clip on the fastball and slider. I think he’d be good, but not a stud. Yes, throwing hard is cool and the 10 mph difference on the slider is in the right spot to get whiffs if batters are actually convinced a strike is coming and are put on the defensive, but he’s not a potential Skenes. He’s a potential…what’s below Jared Jones? Whatever that is. You don’t want this, y’all. You won’t even know if you can trust him if it actually all works out.
Names To Know
Jacob Waguespack (TBR, RHP)
He features legit extension (seven feet!) and gets plenty of iVB on his four-seamer and pairs it with high location…at 93 mph. He pairs it with a cutter that should see more action against LHB with its great horizontal movement, though he needs something else. The curve and change aren’t there yet and I’m curious how he looks when he inevitably gets a start this year. Super sneaky sleeper here based on the extension and cutter, though we should expect the standard “five and dive” if he does find regular starts.
Mason Montgomery (TBR, LHP)
We saw an exciting two-pitch mix from the left side in Montgomery’s limited 9.2 IP games as a reliever in 2024 and we very well may see Mason stay there across the season. However, I sure wish he starts with his legit potential. We didn’t see a third offering, but 97 mph heater with solid shape merged with an 89 mph slider at 80th percentile vertical drop is a phenomenal foundation, especially with his intent to go BSB. If the changeup he featured in the minors returns to the mix as a reliable option, Monty becomes a “must-add” when he gets the opportunity in the future…which may not be for a long time. Know the name.
Relevant Prospects
Ian Seymour (TBR, LHP)
I don’t have the highest hopes for Seymour but I can see him turning into a workhorse lefty if needed. He’s a southpaw who returned from TJS to pitch mostly in Triple-A last year, flexing a four-seamer at 90/91 mph that relies on a strong changeup to subdue RHB, while his cutter needs plenty of refinement if he’s to avoid damage against LHB. He doesn’t have enough electricity, nor top-of-the-line command to suggest running to the wire when he gets a shot, but I can see figuring out his rarely featured slider over time to be a deep-league Toby. Unfortunately, the low extension prevents more than that with his velocity.
Yoniel Curet (TBR, RHP)
With placement on the 40-man roster, it’s possible Curet shoots up the system to make his debut in 2025. Will it be as a starter or a reliever? His mid-to-upper 90s heater propelled a 30%+ strikeout rate and he pairs it with the traditional slider + developing changeup, though the common issue is apparent: Strikes. Curet has yet to display a sub-10% walk rate and his lack of reliable depth may force him to the pen despite starting all 26 games of 2024. Pay attention to his performance this year, as it will dictate his role for 2025 and 2026.
Joe Rock (TBR, LHP)
Joe is a slinging southpaw without the extension you’re looking for (closer to six feet than seven) and low 90s velocity. The sinker gets exceptional horizontal movement from the attack angle, though, and it finds the zone incessantly. I worry that there isn’t enough in the sinker/slider combo to dominate, though I may be underrating the changeup + a four-seamer that confounds when mixed with the sinker. The good news? He throws strikes. If his whiffability can stick in the majors (13-15% SwStr in the minors last year), there is hope for fantasy relevance. I’m a little cautious at the moment.
Gary Gill Hill (TBR, RHP)
Hill does a great job hurling strikes with a fantastic 6% walk rate in 108.2 innings in Single-A this past year, though the stuff may not bring enough excitement when he arrives at the big league level. He’s currently in the low-to-mid 90s with a quartet of secondaries – a proper slider, curve, solid changeup, and even a cutter – which turned in a 24% strikeout and 12/13% SwStr rate against mediocre competition, which outlines to more of a Toby than potential Cherry Bomb or more. With a likely advancement to Double-A coming early in 2025, Hill could be the trusted option to pitch competitive innings if the Rays needed help mid-season, and I’m looking forward to getting more data on his arsenal.
Santiago Suarez (TBR, RHP)
Suarez fails to walk batters (sub 5% across 170+ innings in two seasons) while packing a low-to-mid-90s four-seamer and curve combo (with some changeups) that racked up 26% strikeouts and a 15% SwStr rate in 23 starts at Single-A in 2024. That’s a fun combo, though most prospects who make quick impacts push a bit higher in the strikeout department against Single-A batters. I’m less confident in Suarez’s pitch-mix than Hill’s given the rarity of a 93 mph fastball + high-70s curve becoming a foundation of a trusted starter in the bigs, though Suarez just turned 20-years-old in January and has plenty of time for further growth. Don’t expect him in the majors in 2025 – The Rays have all the reason to focus on Suarez’s development at his young age and many alternative prospects who can fill in when needed.
Dylan Lesko (TBR, RHP)
Lesko moved from the Padres in the Jason Adams deal at 2024’s trade deadline after showcasing a low 90s heater with legit iVB, dwarfed by an elite changeup. His slider and cutter also flash plus ability, though the slowball is the star of the show…when it works. Lesko had a nightmare of a season as his command faded dramatically – Lesko walked at least three batters in each of his nine final games of the year beginning July sixth and it’s unclear what caused his collapse. Given his lack of overpowering heater, control is a must for Lesko, placing his fantasy outlook is at its nadir. The Rays will be sure to take it slow with Lesko after a year in A+ ball, making him look like a 2026/2027 ETA.
Brody Hopkins (TBR, RHP)
After pitching 115 frames in A/A+ between Seattle and Tampa Bay, I’m expecting Hopkins to stick in the minors for another season as he gets a better feel for his low-arm angle from the right side that has affected his ability to throw strikes. I’ve seen worse than a 10/11% walk rate, though when it comes with fewer whiffs than most (12/13% SwStr rate at this low of a level isn’t promising), I worry about the impact at the fantasy level. His mid-90s heater relies on horizontal movement more than iVB, which amplifies grounders while highlighting his control issues and lack of whiffs. His slider could become a larger force + the development of his cutter and changeup may pull him away from the traditional warts of sinker/slider arms, but it does seem unrefined and in need of a full season in Double-A before success in the majors.