To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Chris Sale (ATL, LHP)
I scoured everything. I look at his slider, four-seamer, changeup, noted his locations, count changes, movement, velocity, shifts to RHB/LHB, all of it. There were four differences between 2023 and 2024: health, velocity, LOB% rate, and home runs.
The first is obvious. Sale is notorious for his inability to stay on the field and despite everyone expecting 100 IP or even fewer frames from the lanky southpaw, we saw Sale pitch without interruption until his back barked after his September 19th outing, tallying 177.2 IP in 29 starts. It was incredible, exhilarating, exceptional. We have to accept that this wasn’t typical and to anticipate another full season from Sale would be far too optimistic. That isn’t to say he’s deGrom and we’d be lucky for 120+ frames, but…we may be lucky if we see 120 frames.
To push Sale down the ranks due to injury risk would be unjust. I’m favoring injured arms a bit more than usual this year given the absurd depth of SP this year and considering his roster spot equates to the known quality of Sale when healthy + whoever we scoop up off the wire, I’d accept the ding in volume. There are three other differences to cover, though.
Let’s tackle the HOTEL factor – LOB% and home run rate. In some ways, they link – runners on base who score via HR cannot be Left On Base, after all – though I reviewed it all and found the significant shift in HR decline (1.31 HR/9 to a tiny 0.46 HR/9 clip) came from HRs to RHB off his slider – five in 2023’s shorter season vs. one in all of 2024. And yes, there were more off his four-seamer, but the takeaway was that all of these pitches (save for one) were terrible sliders or heaters. Poorly located mistakes that were punished as they should have been. I’m worried that we’ll see more of them again in 2025 as Sale didn’t pitch all that differently last season and this is one of those rare moments where I say “Ehhhh just average the two.” But his fastball velocity increased! Ohhhh yeah. Number four.
Sale’s four-seamer came up from its lazy 93/94 mph to 94/95 mph, which absolutely helps, but is that really the Sale of old? We used to see Sale sit 96/97 mph with his fastball, two ticks above or higher with a greater effect on his secondaries. I’m not convinced that the heater is truly better, especially with the same strike and ICR rates and a 43%+ ICR to both LHB and RHB. And who’s to say the heater will continue to be at the raised 94/95 mph for another season? That is far from a given at age 36 with his track record.
I’m worried about Sale. Everyone understands 2024’s Cy Young campaign was a magical season, and even if I believe Sale will still be productive with his three-pitch mix and very capable of collecting Wins every game he starts, I question his impact across what will likely be a dented workload. There’s an argument to made that even Strider is a better pick (who has a better quality-per-inning this year?), though Sale gets the nod given the known commodity of his health right now. It would take all the pieces coming together perfectly for Sale to get his HOTEL upgrade carrying over for another year with a 30% strikeout rate. It simply rarely happens.
Quick Take: Sale’s health history mixed with all the signs of regression make me question Sale’s impact across your fantasy teams. Expect a rise in ERA to the 3s with a WHIP over 1.10 as the HR, LOB%, and hit rates normalize, while we could see a fastball decline that makes the shift dramatically larger. Give me the floor of many others instead.
Reynaldo López (ATL, RHP)
Reynaldo’s transition to the bullpen went far better than any of us could have dreamed of with a 1.99 ERA across 133+ frames. And yet no one wants him for 2025. It’s weird right? I’m not saying I disagree, it’s just weird. It’s the least heralded sub 2.00 ERA season I may have ever seen. But the luck! Yeah yeah yeah, he got super lucky. ReyLó held an 87% LOB rate across the year that is obviously set to regress, but it’s more than that. His success with a four-seamer that carried an 8% SwStr rate paired with a slider thrown 30% of the time at a 57% strike rate is breaking my brain. A sub 8% walk rate?! Really?! Yes, there’s a curveball in the mix 11% of the time as well at a 60% strike rate, but hot dang is this not sustainable.
I should also mention the 0.66 HR/9 that is sure to climb across more innings, though I will push back on those expecting López to get hurt during the year. He hit the IL with shoulder inflammation and upon returning after a very short 25 pitch debut, he gave us a surprise gift of 6 IP with 9 Ks right before the season ended. He’s also on a winning club who will let him go six frames, even if they will prevent him from pitching twice in one week. I think Reynaldo will be an arm who will help teams, just not a super stud akin to last year’s performance.
Quick Take: I don’t hate López for fantasy squads this year. His slider is still great even at a low strike rate and his four-seamer finds strikes surprisingly well. However, home runs should find him more often, walks are likely to rise without a slider adjustment, and the ERA/WHIP are sure to get close to uncomfortable levels. Take a chance if he falls enough, but don’t rely on this working for a second time.
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL, RHP)
It’s easy with Schwellenbach. I love pitchers who get volume on winning teams with strikeout upside. Here comes Mr. Crescendo with 160+ IP across the minors and majors last year, boasting 90+ pitches per start with a massive arsenal, three pitches at a 15%+ SwStr rate, 96 mph four-seamers, and all six pitches returning a 60%+ strike rate. It’s a complete package we rarely see for young arms and I’m here for it.
The four-seamer is a bit strange and likely takes a step back next year. It features terrible iVB that limits its effectiveness, even with good-not-great HAVAA and extension, and often leads to punishment when leaning too heavily on the pitch inside the zone, especially to LHB. He fared far better against RHB with the heater, though its 27% putaway right and 15% SwStr rate appear unsustainable for the year ahead. With all his tools, I hope Schwellenbach leans more on his other offerings, allowing the heater to be more of a surprise pitch to keep batters on their toes.
I can see both the cutter and slider becoming more of a focus for the year ahead. The slider was saved often for two-strike counts and was left over the plate to RHB more often than ideal, while the cutter’s fantastic ICR to both LHB and RHB suggest it can eclipse a 20% usage against both for the year ahead. Schwellenbach has above-average command on everything, and it’s apparent with the cutter landing armside to LHB for foul balls and outs incessantly. It’s fun, y’all.
There’s also a curve and splitter that work well against LHB. Yes, a splitter. It’s not the #2 pitch and is used how a splitter should be used – saved for two-strike counts and kept down – and I love how Schwellenbach doesn’t need that pitch on a given day if the feel is off, while it dominates when it cooks. Sigh.
There is one glaring concern: health. Jason Collette has texted me furiously this off-season about his worries of Schwellenbach’s workload increase in 2024 and 2025 may see the ramifications of his heavy usage. I’m not as concerned as Jason due to the innate heightened risk of SP in general, but moreso how pitchers are capable of taking on increased workload if they are conditioned well enough between starts. Not every arm is the same and jumps in innings like this have happened many times before without lengthy IL stints immediately after. I’m willing to take the risk.
Quick Take: Schwellenbach’s rare skill set of control, a deep pitch mix, 95+ mph velocity, and multiple whiff pitches merged with his situation on a winning ball club has me eager to draft him in 2025. There are a few risk factors (including his low track record, of course) that may steer you away, but I’m willing to buy in on a potential 200 strikeout season.
Grant Holmes (ATL, RHP)
I like The Real Estate Broker a lot. Holmes boasted three pitches with a 15%+ SwStr rate, 65%+ strike rate, and sub 40% ICR against RHB with his four-seamer spotting the edges, opening the doors for filthy sliders and curveballs. It was awesome. Small sample size of just under 70 IP, yes, but still awesome.
There are some warning signs against LHB, though. His four-seamer’s strength is precision against RHB that is simply not there against LHB with so many wasted armside and off the plate, which isn’t the worst thing – it’s his most hittable pitch, after all – but the pitches that land inside the zone are well inside the zone. Not great.
The slider and curve make up the slack, though. Both returned absurd 70%+ Strike rates at a 24% SwStr clip, and even with his slider returning a ghastly 50%+ ICR, contact wasn’t made enough for Holmes to struggle in the small sample.
Now that Atlanta hasn’t acquired significant depth, Holmes should be the #4 starter out of camp and in a position to hold a rotation spot once Strider returns – it’s rare for something not to break after a month into the year. With a longer leash and starting every five days on a winning club, Holmes looks to be a great sleeper target for all-around production at a cheap cost.
Quick Take: The heater’s strong precision against RHB allows the elite slider and curve to take center stage without the punishment we normally see from breaker-focused arms. There may be some struggles against LHB that need a changeup or cutter to ease the blow, but Holmes should return plenty of value in all formats at his late draft price.
Spencer Strider (ATL, RHP)
This ranking is subject to change and y’all know that. His value dramatically shifts based on the league you are in – IL spots, depth, affordability of a roster spot, etc. – and I find myself wanting to draft Strider more and more as I discuss him this off-season. First, let me outline the clear reasons not to draft Strider. 1) How healthy is he actually? 2) Will he have setbacks before returning? 3) Will he need to ramp up once he returns? 4) Will he still have the same quality per inning once returning? 5) An IL spot is still valuable in April. 6) How much of an impact does he actually provide across 4-5 months vs. an arm that would go a full season?
All of those are worthwhile concerns. Considering it was internal brace surgery, Strider’s timeline of May 1st is reasonable (usually about 12 months vs the 14-16 months of TJS), and the fact that he’s already at camp and looking to be on schedule is as positive of a sign as you can hope for. We’ve seen injured pitchers take longer than the initial timeline when hurt during the spring (Gavin Williams and Bryan Woo last year, for example), and there is absolutely risk here.
The rest of the concerns are not as much of an issue for me. Why? Because most leagues (and the one I am ranking for) have an IL where Strider’s roster spot becomes open for another SP to fill in. It’s Strider’s production plus whoever covers the roster spot when he’s hurt and let me tell you, the SP depth this year is bonkers. I can’t believe some of the names I have outside the initial Top 100 SP ranking and I’m willing to bet you’ll be able to add many arms inside the Top 100 during the first week of April. In addition, April roster spots are the most valuable roster spots due to players displaying new skills at the start of the year that can carry across the entire season. Strider grants you a free ticket for another chance at the waiver wire lottery that can pay off massively.
And once May 1st arrives, guess what? You have a Top 5 SP in baseball. Boom, just like that, you’re going to forget all about April and be the king of the land. We’ve seen Skenes, Glasnow, deGrom, Skubal, Crochet Ragans, and many others rank highly on the player raters at the end of the season despite sub-150 IP and I firmly believe Strider will be there too.
So go for it. With a massive pool of quality arms to pair with Strider a round later, you’re not going to get as far behind in the early season compared to previous years.
Quick Take: He’s a Top 5 SP when healthy, which should be about a month into the year. His open roster spot in April should be embraced and the loss of Strider for one month is not enough to turn him down inside the Top 30 SP. You’re going to be so happy you did during the season.
Ian Anderson (ATL, RHP)
Unless Anderson looks horrid out of camp, he’s the #5 arm for Atlanta out of the gate. That alone should demand your focus in the spring and I’m excited to watch the fella after returning from TJS. If you’ve forgotten, Anderson’s four-seamer/changeup combo worked wonders in 2021, confounding RHB for a miraculous sub-30 % ICR on his heater and a 20% SwStr rate on the changeup. LHB fared a bit better (oddly enough) and his curve had brief moments of bliss but was mainly a Work in Progress that I wishcasted for the future.
Now in 2025, I wonder how Anderson has grown. His approach calls for a slider or, yes, a cutter to earn strikes to both-handed batters, and without it, you may still see the high 10%+ walk rate of old, but let’s treat this like a prospect. What will he have to offer? Watch closely and see if there is a value starter out of the gate… BUT he’ll get the Padres or Dodgers in his first start. OH COME ON. Yeah. You may want to pass on this one altogether in 12-teamers as you are absolutely not starting him in his first outing, without a clear ceiling to chase after the tough matchup.
Quick Take: I wonder if Anderson can become a solid waiver wire add this year for all formats, but his opening matchup and lack of clear promise without any new data suggests we wait and see until he forces us to add him in-season.
On The Fringe
Bryce Elder (ATL, RHP)
I know we’re told to respect our Bryces but he’s just a sinker/slider arm with a changeup that wants to be more than it is. He’s gone on some fun runs in the past rooted in great feel for both pitches at the same time and Atlanta could very well make him the #5 starter out of camp if Anderson isn’t up to snuff. He’s done it before, after all. That doesn’t mean you should trust him in the slightest, sadly, and if Elder is getting regular starts, he’ll be reserved as a desperate Win chance for 15-teamers.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL, RHP)
I was a bit excited for AJSS last year when he made his debut, but alas, there just isn’t enough in the arsenal for me to get amped. The heater doesn’t have exceptional shape and unless it returns to 97+ mph velocity (95 mph last year), it’ll get punished. The secondaries aren’t at a high enough level to save the heater from destruction, either, but hey, maybe he’s a new arm now and demands a rotation spot? Or maybe Atlanta sends him to Triple-A for a little more development to kick off his 22-year-old season. He’s awfully young and could display many new tricks us old dogs can’t learn, after all. Monitor him in camp, hoping for that extra pizazz that puts egg on my face.
Names To Know
Dylan Dodd (ATL, LHP)
Is Atlanta going to give this another shot? I remember getting excited about both Dodd and Shuster two years ago after they displayed a legit slider inside to RHB paired with solid fastballs inside. It didn’t last. He could find a few starts across the season and I’ll let you know if there’s something new for you to care about. In all likelihood, there isn’t.
Davis Daniel (ATL, RHP)
When the best skill for a pitcher is to throw fastball strikes, I generally get worried. But that’s a good skill! It can’t be the best skill. Daniel’s four-seamer is 91/92 with middling shape and above-average extension and it strolled into the zone 62% of the time last season. If it were a tough pitch to hit, that’s one thing. When it returns 42% ICR, that’s another. Yes, this did mean Daniel’s four-seamer held a 100th percentile called strike rate in its limited sample at a 28% clip, but hot dang, that’s not what you want.
The high called-strike rate does suggest batters are looking for something else, which should surprise you considering there’s nothing to fear. The slider is decent but not electric and the changeup earned an abnormally high strike rate, rooted in a massive foul ball rate when swung at off the plate. In other words, he got the chases, but its minimal break allowed batters to still make contact.
And that’s it. Really, not much else to talk about with Daniel. If he’s in the rotation, it’s either because A) He massively upgraded his ability over the winter or B) The Angels Atlanta ran out of alternative arms. Don’t be like the Angels Atlanta.
Chad Kuhl (ATL, RHP)
He signed in February as a non-roster invitation to camp, though he was primarily used as a reliever across his last two seasons and may very well be in the pen in 2025. But who knows, maybe he stretches out, shows more than a slider, and Atlanta has no choice but to let him start. Do we want that? We don’t get involved. Just be Kuhl, y’all, and let this Chad do his thing as we lean back and wonder how Atlanta got into this situation in the first place. Sooooo…No. Absolutely not.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Hurston Waldrep (ATL, RHP)
I simply believe Waldrep is a reliever, not a starter. His heater is not impressive on its own and his #2 pitch is a splitter. There is a slider in the mix that is decent but not the pitch he needs and I’m giving the shrug emoji over here. If the heater were a truly dominant pitch, I’d be interested, but when it’s just a splitter, y’all know I can’t get on board.
Royber Salinas (ATL, RHP)
Oh snap it’s Salinas! The guy who was traded from Atlanta to Oakland in 2022 hath returned and I remember being super intrigued by him last year before he started walking the farm in Double-A with the Athletics in 2024. Sadly, he had to get shoulder surgery and will miss at least the first half of 2025, so he shouldn’t be expected until 2026, let alone pitch at a quality level. Bummer.
Drue Hackenberg (ATL, RHP)
He fanned sixteen batters in a game and failed to hit double-digit strikeouts otherwise. The four-seamer sits at 93 mph without exceptional shape and I’m not falling in love with the cutter or curve he displayed in his brief Triple-A stint. He may get a chance this year given time already spent in Triple-A, but I’m not all that interested until I see something with a WOW factor.
Jhancarlos Lara (ATL, RHP)
He sat mid-to-upper 90s with a high 80s slider. It’s hard not to like that, though I wonder what he can add as a proper third offering and if he can control those two pitches well enough to ascend into Triple-A quickly after five games in Double-A last season. Monitor him and don’t get your hopes up for a 2025 impact.
Lucas Braun (ATL, RHP)
He’s a cross-body mechanics right-hander who has better feel than most to feature strikes with the difficult mechanics. He kept up impressive K/BB% numbers when jumping to Double-A in 2024, though I question if his heater is good enough to make a significant impact in the majors. It is a pretty breaker from that arm slot, though.
Really appreciate these being made public, with the exception of the Mariners – any chance that one could be unlocked as well? Thanks!