To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Garrett Crochet (BOS, LHP)
I was so tempted to put Crochet as my SP #1 but alas, he doesn’t have the expected volume of Skubal and I have to live with that. But why is he above Skenes? Because Crochet’s four-seamer and cutter foundation is just so dang good. There isn’t a stronger one-two punch that works against both LHB and RHB as well as these two, it’s that simple. Moving him from the White Sox to the Red Sox is obviously a Win, even if the Red Sox were -34 OAA as an infield defense last year. But hey! Bregman is here and is literally a +20 OAA net gain if he’s at 2B for the full year, which would move them to…22nd overall! Hey, that’s something and better than the White Sox.
I haven’t mentioned the new sinker Crochet featured at the end of last year that adds a third pitch to throw for strikes that takes advantage of his elite velocity and elite extension and it should help him maintain his already stupid high quality floor. The only pushback is his health track record, yet the White Sox literally did the exact thing you wanted for longevity. They let him pitch all year but limited him to roughly 60 pitches in the second half. That’s great! It makes Crochet ready to go 90+ pitches every five days, exercising a 30-35% strikeout rate and absurd ratios.
You want him. There are so few pitchers in the game who effortlessly throw strikes and generate whiffs. Crochet does it better than Skubal and Skenes. I can’t wait to watch him thrive in Boston.
Quick Take: I trust Crochet’s quality floor as much as nearly anyone in baseball, with the only concern being his health track record. After the White Sox did everything ideal to set him up for a workhorse 2025 season, I’m banking on Crochet beating IP expectations in an excellent situation in Boston.
Tanner Houck (BOS, RHP)
Houck is easy. His sinker and slider make easy work of RHB – that’s never been the issue – and his transformation into a fantasy ace across the first half was a product of stellar feel for his splitter along the outside corner to LHB. After all, sinker/slider guys generally struggle against opposite handed batters and instead of sliders coming back toward hitters and returning a 40-45% ICR with a sinker that doesn’t jam batters (duh), the splitter did the heavy lifting.
And what do you know, the second half was a step back because…you already know. The splitter feel declined, the studly performances dwindled. From June 29th through the end of the season, Houck held a 4.42 ERA and 1.38 WHIP as his splitter returned just a 9% SwStr rate to LHB. Yikes. His sinker also struggled more than usual against LHB in that time, adding to the damage and he even had a shocking loss of feel for his signature slider as well, which shouldn’t be a major problem in the year ahead, but still not fun to see.
It leads us to the obvious question: How much do we trust Houck to have his splitter in 2025? Personally, I’m not counting out the pitch in full or suggesting Houck can’t continue much of the success he had in 2024. I see Houck going through ups and downs as he finds and loses rhythm, and most importantly, I don’t know if he’ll have it out of camp. Houck isn’t going at a high price in drafts (sweet!), making him a great late add to see if he’s at the top of his game early, allowing you to ride it out for as long as he’s cooking, just like last year.
I’m actually a bit surprised he’s going well past pick 200 as of publication given how enamored we all were with him in mid-June last season, but then again, the SP landscape is so deep that Houck gets pushed back to a point where we can draft him without taking on all of the risk. Circle him as a late target to ride early and make a quick drop if he’s not locked in.
Quick Take: Houck’s early success wasn’t a fluke – he deserved that success with his splitter cooking and granting him a fantastic answer for LHB. Sadly, it faded along with small setbacks in his sinker and slider, but he could have that feel back out of camp and produce from day one. The overall season may be rocky, but he’s a fantastic arm to test the first week of the season.
Walker Buehler (BOS, RHP)
Buehler is a mystery entering the season who fortunately doesn’t cost you a pretty penny. Some may watch his playoff performances and believe he’s turned a corner toward the pitcher he was in 2021, even if I believe the adrenaline of the playoffs turned Buehler into a different arm than what we should expect across a full season.
The good news? Buehler is getting drafted after Pick 250, making him a late round flier, not a breakout play you have to lean upon throughout the year. It’s how it should be from Buehler, who doesn’t have a four-seamer destined to earn whiffs and needs to figure out his approach with secondaries to become the reliable arm of the past. I’ll put it plainly: We’re hoping Buehler turns into a Holly. Something like a 23-25% strikeout rate with good enough ratios. Don’t come into this expecting a sub 3.00 ERA or 1.05 WHIP, but Buehler still has enough of an arsenal and solid stuff to make that come to fruition with a strong gameplan and open mind to his approach. I trust his command to be above average and merged with a high Win chance in Boston, you’re likely to draft Buehler and not drop him.
The best part? You won’t be spending a Top 200 pick to get him. It’s the ideal scenario of potential grabbing a season-long arm who you can drop quickly if things look sour early. Sign me up and monitor the success of his cutter and curve. I believe those two pitchers the key to whiffs, while the four-seamer’s cut action should keep him effective inside to LHB.
Quick Take: Buehler is a fun pick given his potential to turn into a Holly this season for a winning club. Don’t expect his 2020/2021 seasons aided by sticky stuff to return in the slightest, but there is a legit arm in here who hit rock bottom in 2024 and is in the process of being built back up the right way.
Brayan Bello (BOS, RHP)
Before I begin, note that Bello had shoulder soreness at the start of camp and is delayed. MRI imaging was clean, but it may mean he begins the season on the IL with the Red Sox carrying six starters. No need to rush him, right?
Let’s say Bello were fully healthy, I’d still be a little hesitant. Individually, Bello showcases the skills of a potential Holly with a three-pitch arsenal of sinkers, changeups, and sliders that suggest he can find six frames constantly and rack up a 25% strikeout rate. However, Bello has yet to truly put all three together at the same time. Writing about him last season was a journey of witnessing two of his three pitches working in a given starts and failing to put all the pieces together. I get a sense that he’s not quite the consistent command pitcher we need from a guy who throws sinkers over four-seamers (well, he throws four-seamers upstairs in two-strike counts and it doesn’t work. Womp womp.).
It was frustrating to roster Bello last season and I expect a bit more turmoil this year. His shoulder soreness isn’t a major problem – guys get that all the time in the spring as it’s just a product of warming up the ole soup bone – but if it keeps him out long enough, there goes a smooth spring that would help him find that rhythm we need him to find. I’m not targeting Bello in my 12-teamers but will keep an eye on him if he finds his way to the waiver wire. He’s a great example of a guy with legit potential who is pushed out of 12-teamer drafts due to the massive SP landscape.
Quick Take: Bello’s trio of sinkers, changeups, and sliders have potential, but lack the command and consistency start-to-start to lead Bello to a breakout campaign…for now. I don’t like chasing him in drafts, but 15-teamers may like Bello for the long haul as long as his shoulder soreness doesn’t hold him back long.
Kutter Crawford (BOS, RHP)
The news came out that Crawford was dealing with a knee injury late in the season and is a bit behind in his spring schedule. Let’s imagine he’s all healthy and gets the fifth spot in the rotation for the Red Sox, I’m not sure I really want to deal with another season of Crawford (after all this talk about five-man, six-man, who gets pushed out, blah blah blah, it goes back to the old saying I have about six man rotations: “Six man rotations are like the Fellowship of the Ring: They begin with many men and grand ambitions only to end with two dudes barely surviving.” Sure, some teams actually pull it off for the full year, but it happens every spring.).
When Crawford overperformed at the start of 2024, I remember watching him and losing confidence once I understood that Crawford didn’t have that pitch in his arsenal to whip out at a given time and get out of a jam. That pitch eventually became the (k)utter by the second half (to a degree), but I still feel uneasy about his fastball, sweeper, kutter, and splitter arsenal.
Yes, a splitter! And it was actually consistent against LHB even if barely touched and hot dang does that four-seamer need to go away against them. 34% usage at nearly 50% ICR ain’t it y’all.
That kutter is really the best thing he’s got by far. It dominated RHB, was a solid offering to LHB, and I hope he continues to find success with it when the four-seamer inevitably lowers in usage. The sweeper also overperformed against LHB and I have some concerns overall with the pitch given Kutter’s extremely high release point, but overall, Crawford is a decent pitcher – great for 15-teamers – who is likely set up to allow plenty of HRs while keeping the WHIP down. It’s possible he can flirt with a 25% strikeout rate if the splitter is more of a thing against LHB (and doesn’t fail him), while the sweeper’s 14% putaway rate to RHB last year has to rise.
It’s just that dang four-seamer with its great iVB that doesn’t actually fool batters with his arm angle. Mix that with the knee problems and questions about his actual role in the rotation have me steering away in drafts, but I could easily jump back in if he finds a locked spot and displays a stronger approach.
Quick Take: Crawford’s kutter has turned into a great pitch, but it may be due to batters jumping at the unfortunately hittable four-seamer. He needs his splitter to do more against LHB with the sweeper coming through in two-strikes to RHB while limiting the four-seamer, which may be too tall of an order. Expect HRs high with a decent WHIP and near a strikeout per inning.
Lucas Giolito (BOS, RHP)
Here’s the deal, y’all. Giolito will be ready for Opening Day. That’s the plan, that’s been the news for the entire winter, and we should be treating Giolito like we were last year at this time. He was even showcasing solid velocity in the spring before he underwent Internal Brace surgery (not TJS but close) and I see a legit upside play here for cheap.
The last few years of Giolito? Get them out of your head. He showcased skills mixed with games he was hurt or out of rhythm for teams that did little to fix his problems. Now he’s with the Red Sox with a solid gameplan that I believe will bring out the most of his four-seamer, changeup, and slider. Who knows, maybe there’s a cutter coming to help bridge it all together? Or maybe the curve returns?
The Red Sox will let the man cook…unless they want to limit him under 130 innings to snag another year at a cheap price. I believe the Red Sox can’t afford to lose those starts from Giolito and will instead work him every five days to get the most of him before they lose him to free agency. His changeup will likely still be legit, his fastball command strong, and with a slider that should be effective against RHB, he’s a Holly who could have his best season in ages. I love this, but sure, let’s see what happens in the spring. Monitor his velocity and arsenal changes to ensure he’s ready to produce for your fantasy teams every five games (NO SIX MAN, PLEASE).
Quick Take: This is a new Giolito. His arm is repaired, he has a great coaching staff behind him, and can go six innings often for a winning club. This is the scenario we’ve waited for Giolito to have for years and I’m all for getting in before the price goes up…just make sure it doesn’t look terrible during spring training.
On The Fringe
Richard Fitts (BOS, RHP)
He was kinda cool for a moment last year and who knows, maybe he’ll get another shot this year as the best potential #7 option for the Sawx with a cut-action four-seamer at 94 mph + a well spotted but not whiff-heavy slider. The splitter is the attack against LHB (noooope) and I wouldn’t get excited if Fitts saw some time in the rotation, but there is Toby potential based on the fastball that should be treated like a hard cutter. He really needs to get that thing inside to LHB and away to RHB instead of trying to rely on its vert that doesn’t surprise batters. Treat it like an opposite-handed sinker, please.
Quick Take: If Fitts leans into the horizontal action on his four-seamer, he could jam LHB incredibly well, allowing him to go fastball/slider to RHB and get outs without the typical splits of a pitcher without a secondary for LHB. If he sees time in the rotation, monitor if the approach has shifted to move away from high heat.
Cooper Criswell (BOS, RHP)
He’s a kitchen sink fella who doesn’t go more than five innings often when he gets the chance. I love his ability to go Neckbeard at times, but you really shouldn’t expect major volume this year from Criswell. The Sawx have plenty other options and Cooper is more of a backup long relief option they push when needed.
Quick Take: Criswell is the ultra backup option for the Red Sox, even though he’s better than other super backups for other teams. He won’t be seen much, though, and you’re better off chasing others instead.
Quinn Priester (BOS, RHP)
He’s still a work in progress after the Red Sox targeting him at the trade deadline to pry him away from the Pirates. The slider and curveball have shown promise in the past, though the fastballs are making this whole pitching thing super tough on him. We saw him make a start at the very end of the year where he featured more changeups as well and I’m still waiting to see a legit approach merged with believable repetition that would turn Priester into a starter we can test in fantasy. Maybe this is the year for the high-pedigree prospect arm.
Names To Know
Patrick Sandoval (BOS, LHP)
The Irish Panda underwent Internal Brace surgery in June of last year, marking a possible return for the Red Sox in the second half. Sandoval hasn’t been helpful in fantasy for a long while, though, so let’s get ahead of all the “should I stash Sandoval?!” questions this summer and say “Sure, if you have an open spot, there’s zero harm. If it costs you anything, don’t do it. He doesn’t have a clear path to a rotation spot and his terrible fastballs without legit slider + changeup command have done him in for years.”
Garrett Whitlock (BOS, RHP)
Whitlock is a reliever. He’s happy he’s a reliever. I hate that he’s a reliever, but alas, Boston told him to prepare as a reliever as he returns from injury and will be with the team leaving camp. But who knows, maybe it all goes haywire and Whitlock turns into the clear option they need to stretch out to start once again. His excellent extension paired with a heater he can locate on both sides of the plate and a pair of whiffable breakers will always have me salivating for a healthy full season in the rotation BUT WHATEVER.
Zach Penrod (BOS, LHP)
Penrod made seven relief appearances and is on the 40-man roster after starting a bit in the minors last season. He throws 95 mph four-seamers with 17″ of iVB from the left side with decent sliders + a changeup for RHB, but the whole thing isn’t well commanded and I don’t trust him to be super filthy if he winds up in the rotation after whatever chaos that would attack New England to place Penrod in the rotation.
Bryan Mata (BOS, RHP)
He throws hard and will likely get some look for the Red Sox this year, but the fella doesn’t grade well with PLV as his command can be all over the place, nor does he feature great movement or extension. I think we can properly ignore Mata unless he shocks us by making the team out of camp (he’s out of options) and does more than sits as a reliever.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Luis Perales (BOS, RHP)
He only had two starts in Double-A before undergoing Internal Brace surgery and you shouldn’t expect him up this year but hopefully will get time in the minors at the end of the year. But hey, he throws hard with a legit slider/cutter. It may be a reliever profile when all is said and done, but I’m excited to see what he does in 2026.
David Sandlin (BOS, RHP)
Hmmmm. Sandlin looks filthy at times with mid-to-upper 90s heaters and a nasty set of breaking balls merged with a low walk rate. Thing is, he has a massive hit-per-nine that suggest low extension or poor shape that makes his good control questionable – is he locating well inside the zone or are his pitches too hittable despite the velocity? Sandlin also dealt with a forearm strain in early 2024 and was limited by the Red Sox throughout his starts, which also amplifies the high hit rate – those starts when you’re feeling great usually have a larger impact but are cut off, while the poor starts are the same length – so I’m on the fence here. If Sandlin gets the call, I think he’s an auto-add. The Red Sox seemingly have enough depth to get through the season and not risk Sandlin going deep into games a ton, which has me hesitant to rank him highly for 2025. I hope he gets a shot in Triple-A this year where we can get proper data and stir some hype.
Hunter Dobbins (BOS, RHP)
He throws 95+ mph and peppers the zone, but with poor shape and pairs it with suspect sliders and curves with a meh cutter that finds the zone. There is an interesting power sinker in here with proper drop that can beffudle LHB and RHB alike under the zone, but I doubt he’ll get the same whiffs on the pitch in the bigs. I need to see more growth here before becoming an auto-add when he arrives.