To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock. These are now free for everyone!
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Kevin Gausman (TOR, RHP)
I kinda don’t want to deal with it…? Gausman is who he is – a dude who throws a ton of four-seamers for strikes and what has been the most consistent splitter in baseball…until it wasn’t. The pitch used to be routine 60%+ strike and 20%+ swinging-strike rates, but fell to 52% strike and 14% swinging-strike rates to LHB, while it saw a smaller drop but still significant to RHB with a huge increase in ICR to 45%. It was bad.
Gausman did collect himself by the end of the season to feature a few games with his splitter returning whiffs just like the old days, but is that enough to win us over again? He also added a sinker to jam RHB! That’s true, and I dig it. After all, the worse splitter meant batters could feast on more four-seamers (and yes, they were crushed by RHB) and Gausman responded well by hurling a sinker for a sub-30% zone rate into the hands of RHB. It worked well and arguably saved his season, though that’s not quite enough for me to get back on good terms with Gausman.
The end result last year was a 3.82 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but more importantly a 21% strikeout rate due to the massive dip in whiffs. It makes you wonder if Gausman is worth the gamble this year given the mortality of his splitter and nothing else to support it, but then again, Gausman found a way to get through the season despite the worse splitter and he likely won’t be an arm you want to drop after drafting him.
I’m incredibly conflicted. I can see the logic in drafting Gausman hoping he will be the man of old and act like a 25-30% strikeout arm again with his old splitter. On the other, Gausman could return another harmful season (yes, those ratios hurt you in a 12-teamer last season) and you could be trapped all season without realizing the damage until the season is done.
In the end, I’m placing him in the HIPSTER tier with the hope he climbs up quickly through the season. I’ll have a close eye on him in the spring, specifically if the K/BB rates are favorable. Yes, you can use spring K/BB numbers effectively as Gausman’s strikeouts will only come if the splitter is cooking. Let’s hope it is.
Quick Take: It’s hard to tell if Gausman will have his old splitter or not. Fortunately, he’s not costing a Top 100 pick and it may be worthwhile to grab him in hopes he can return to form. Be careful, though, as it may be tough to gauge early, leaving you susceptible to many innings of harmful ratios.
José Berríos (TOR, RHP)
Berríos, The Great Undulator. Through his first 23 starts of the season, he held a 4.11 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an 18% strikeout rate. You dropped him, as you should have. H*ck, you shouldn’t have drafted this Toby in the first place! But I digress. Berríos proceeded to save his season across his next eight starts, averaging nearly seven frames per start with a 1.51 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate. And then…He messed it up with 6 ER in 3 IP to end the year. What else would you expect from The Great Undulator?
The reason? It’s always the curve. Reductively, it had a 12% swinging-strike rate before the run, then a 20% swinging-strike rate after. The pitch dominates and he’s golden, the pitch is fine and he’s not. There isn’t a legit slider to help, nor an overpowering heater, nor a stupid good sinker even if it jams batters decently well (okay sometimes the changeup helps. SOMETIMES), Berríos lives and dies by that hook, which elects to take vacations throughout the season. It has the best union among all pitch types.
If you’re okay drafting Berríos and letting him sit there with full confidence it’ll all normalize by the end, go ahead. Have a field day. I have to ask, would you have dropped Berríos on August 1st? Or would you have truly believed that he would recover his whole season in the next two months? He is the ultimate Toby who I just don’t want to deal with for the year. You can do better in 12-teamers, but fine, if you must in 15-teamers. I get it, volume is volume.
Quick Take: Berríos is who is always is – a man who fluctuates throughout the season due to an inconsistent curve. When he’s on, he’s on, but it’s awfully hard to endure throughout the course of a full season. You’re better off chasing other options in 12-teamers, while 15-teamers can benefit from high Wins and strikeout totals without the worst ratios.
Chris Bassitt (TOR, RHP)
We all be undervaluing Bassitt. It was a horrible 2024 season as his WHIP shot from a consistent sub 1.20 clip to 1.46 across 171 innings, which doesn’t get much better at a 1.42 WHIP if you want to remove his first two starts. But don’t fret! There are a few signs quickly that Bassitt didn’t deserve this and he could normalize last season. For starters, his fifth percentile BABIP does not match his 54th percentile ICR rate, which suggests his 9+ hits per nine, after seasons comfortably under eight, can correct itself.
But where did that come from? It sure wasn’t against RHB…kinda. Bassitt did everything right to limit hard contact but despite a sub-30% ICR on his sinker, the pitch returned a .359 BABIP, which is all kinds of dumb. The previous high had been .300 on the dot back in 2020. That ain’t right.
The culprits were left-handed batters. Hoooo boy did Bassitt struggle against them. The curveball was less effective than its 2023 counterpart with its putaway rate nearly cut in half from 21% to 10/11%, while setting a career-high 47.6% ICR, raising 14 points from last year’s mark.
That wasn’t the real problem, though. That sinker was, um, destroyed. For a pitch with a 40% ICR across the previous two seasons, it jumped to 58% ICR with a .449 BABIP (kinda deserved…) and it took a moment to understand why. Batters swung just as often as they did last year but suddenly made far more O-Contact, as if ready for the pitch and still hitting it well even outside the zone. In addition, Bassitt went front-hip sinker less often, resulting in a huge called-strike drop from 30% in 2022 to 24% in 2025.
To make matters worse, the cutter’s strike rate plummeted as he kept missing the pitch too high out of the zone. What was once a reliable pitch to LHB at a 67% strike rate became 59% overnight, catalyzed by a declining zone rate of 53% in 2022 all the way to 38% in 2024. Fewer cutter strikes led to easier at-bats for LHB to seek out the sinker. SIMPLE.
The book is seemingly out on Bassitt and he has to adjust. Get the cutter back to its reliable offering, finagle the sinker back over the plate for more called strikes, and figure out how to make that curve more reliable for punchouts. The good news? Bassitt still has a hold on RHB, the batters he faces most commonly. This was a combination of poor luck and a regression in skill that can be correct on both ends. Don’t count out Bassitt as a possible Toby in your 12-teamers and a value play in 15-teamers. And look, you can just drop him if it’s still terrible, okay?
Quick Take: Poor luck merged with struggles against LHB created the disaster of 2024, but it’s not unsalvage for the future. There is a window of opportunity for Bassitt to return to his level of safety for fantasy managers and he’s worth the gamble late in 15-team drafts. Shallower formats can take the chance, but they may want to wait a start or two first.
Max Scherzer (TOR, RHP)
Look, don’t break the bank for Scherzer. He only has so much left in the tank, and there’s no expectation for a hefty number of frames this year. The Jays signed him and expect him to be healthy. Despite all the doom and gloom he still had a 1.15 WHIP and 16% swinging-strike rate last year. Sixteen percent! He can still whiff batters! Yes, home runs are likely to come and blah blah blah, Scherzer isn’t completely donezo and the moment he is, I’m willing to wager Scherzer will take himself out. He’s not the kind of guy who would tough out a 5.00+ ERA and 1.40 WHIP season just to get his dollars. He’s too competitive to go through that pain on the mound.
The biggest problem with taking Scherzer with your last pick is his schedule. Well, the entire Blue Jays squad. Their schedule in April is rough, with only their second series of the season against the Nationals (and even that is somewhat questionable. Those young bats could be tough!) and a date hosting Seattle for a few games until May. The Orioles, Mets, Fenway, Orioles, Atlanta, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and Guardians all fill up April and I’m struggling to figure out when I want to be testing the waters with Scherzer.
So FINE. I’m out on Scherzer with those matchups. But hot dang, it feels like we’re overlooking this guy a little bit, no? If he’s still starting in May without signs of degradation, I wouldn’t be shocked. His slider had a 30% swinging-strike rate to RHB last year. THIRTY PERCENT. There’s still some juice in the box.
Quick Take: I’m out on Scherzer in 12-team drafts simply because of a rocky April schedule, though Scherzer still has the ability to miss bats at his old age. Ignoring injury risk (who cares, he’s a super late pick!), I imagine Scherzer can provide value once the schedule eases.
Bowden Francis (TOR, RHP)
Okay. I’ve spent a whole lot of time trying to decipher what the h*ck that run was in 2024. Here’s what I’ve got:
Francis shifted from his curveball to sliders against RHB nearly exclusively. He also tossed more splitters to LHB and introduced a sinker (10% of the time) to RHB.
All of that was generally better, but not really the answer. The slider was meh, the splitter was actually kinda good against RHB, and the sinker worked, but generated nine outs in that stretch. Not really the reason.
Nope. I’ve found the actual reason and I’m not entirely sure what to make of it. Francis’ four-seamer was unstoppable. It induced sub 30% ICR marks to both LHB and RHB, leading to stupid low BABIPs that are obviously unsustainable (we’re talking .103 and .109 BABIPs off four-seamers, y’all), but there’s more to it. He changed the four-seamer.
Instead of focusing on vert and velo, he became a 92/93 mph cut fastball pitcher. He located the pitch down-and-inside to LHB, who in turn lofted it into the air 67% of the time for a quarter of flyballs but just eight total hits. Eight! To his other half, Bowden kept the pitch up-and-away and also generated a ton of flyballs with only four hits allowed. That’s absolutely wild to see across nine games, especially when you remember he allowed five hits off his RHB to the Astros in his first game of the season. Oh how far he has come.
Is this something that can carry over into 2025? I’m leaning no. Sure, the extra cut action obviously helps, but it’s unwise to bank on precise command and BABIP working in your favor, especially without secondaries that do a whole lot of work as a backup plan when the four-seamer isn’t in a perfect groove. It was a wonderful run and he’s sure to have more of them. The tough schedule in April is looming and I’d be worried with Francis inside my rotation.
Quick Take: Francis’ made tweaks that surprised batters in the second half and propelled a phenomenal run down the stretch. It’s unlikely he’ll have the same run out of the gate, especially with the tough Jays schedule early in the year, and I’d be cautious about grabbing him in drafts.
On The Fringe
Yariel Rodríguez (TOR, RHP)
The Jays are going to be stretching out Rodríguez and I’ll tell you right now, he breaks the Huascar Rule. It’s a great slider without anything else and I’d be ultra cautious targeting Yariel. The Jays knew his faults last year, too, holding him back for the third time through the lineup constantly and not letting him toss too many pitches, and I’d have to see something new in camp or early in the season for me to consider adding him in 12-teamers should he get a role.
It is a really good slider, though. We’re talking 70%+ strike rate with a 20% swinging-strike rate overall that is just dying to get dealt to a contender. My talents belong with a better team around me. I’m sorry slider, but this ain’t the NBA.
Quick Take: Rodríguez is getting stretched out in camp to act as the potential #6 starter for the Jays, though he’s currently lacking support for his elite slider. Until he flexes a reliable offering, he shouldn’t be trusted for six productive frames should he make regular starts.
Jake Bloss (TOR, RHP)
I’m much more interested in Bloss than I am Yariel. The Jays see him as one of their backup starting options when they need room and while he may be behind Yariel as we enter camp, I prefer Bloss’ arsenal and approach over Yariel’s. It’s a four-seamer with decent cut action at nearly seven feet of extension mixed with a legit slider to both LHB and RHB. There’s a sweeper that he failed to command in the bigs last year and a developing changeup, but the four-seamer/slider combo is a stronger foundation than Yariel’s in my view.
I do wonder if Bloss can do more with his curve, sweeper, and changeup. He hasn’t even had a full season, after all, and we could see something fresh in the spring. Pay attention to Bloss as he could get the invitation to the rotation if an opening appears, especially if he shows growth in his arsenal.
Quick Take: Bloss is a deep sleeper who could find regular starts quickly if he surpasses Yariel during spring training as the team’s #6 SP option. With a good fastball/slider combo, Bloss needs to find a little more reliable depth to become a sturdy fantasy option, but the potential is there.
Names To Know
Eric Lauer (TOR, LHP)
Lauer! You ole rascal, how have you been? Oh, you were in Triple-A last year and then tossed seven starts in the KBO?! Huh, that must have been a wild time, I hope you’re looking better than the 91 mph we saw in the minors this year…you’re not? Dang. Please prove us wrong in the spring, that would be awesome.
Adam Kloffenstein (TOR, RHP)
Kloffenstein has a low arm angle and gets a ton of legit drop on his sinker (hey, a real sinker!) and has a solid changeup to spot underneath. There’s a cutter and sweeper in the mix as well, with the former acting as an alternative fastball look over the zone and the latter as a “hey, it’s a sweeper.” He has an invitation to spring training, though you should not expect him to steal the rotation. He made 17 blegh starts in Triple-A and shouldn’t be considered a fantasy asset until proven otherwise across multiple starts.
Alek Manoah (TOR, RHP)
Oh right, he’s still a thing! Kinda! He underwent Internal Brace surgery in June, suggesting a potential July return, though the Jays may not be up to throw him straight into the rotation upon return. I’m curious if he can complete his redemption arc this year and those looking for any potential at the very end of drafts could consider stashing Manoah. For us normies, Manoah is something to lightly consider in the heat of the summer.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Ricky Tiedemann (TOR, LHP)
We all want this to work out, but it won’t this year. Ricky underwent TJS in late July and we should have zero expectations for Tiedemann to appear in the majors this season. I’ve been a bit hesitant to lean into his skillset of 94/95 mph heaters without great shape (though it can touch 99!) and a sweeper to take down LHB but is susceptible to RHB, and a changeup that needed a bit more polish before I trusted it as a reliable nullifer to RHB. Here’s to a healthy 2026 and all the hype.
Adam Macko (TOR, LHP)
Macko is likely to undergo meniscus surgery and we shouldn’t expect him this year. He wasn’t the most exciting southpaw prospect, though, with a low-to-mid 90s heater, big curve, good slider, and developing changeup. Let’s wait for him to arrive.
Andrew Bash (TOR, RHP)
He has a Non-Roster Invitation to spring as a guy Dancing With The Disco with 83/84 mph sliders, a solid changeup he keeps down-and-away from LHB, but mediocre 92/93 mph four-seamers with a sinker that has solid horizontal break but doesn’t get inside to RHB enough. He could fill in some innings here and there with his slider, but I wouldn’t be circling him for a call-up. You can do better.
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