To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
Expected Starters
Shota Imanaga (CHC, LHP)
I don’t see a large drop off for Imanaga in 2025, though the superb rookie campaign of a 2.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP is unlikely to be replicated. And that’s okay! He’ll continue to stave off the walks with a four-seamer that has elite HAVAA and elite iVB, even at 91 mph and below average extension due to a nullifying splitter and Imanaga’s ability to elevate effectively.
The splitter is sure to dominate once again, even if its 27% SwStr takes a small tumble. Think of Imanaga as a better version of Kevin Gausman: He has a strike-earning fastball with a devestating splitter with the benefit of a sweeper that works wonders against opposite-handed batters. That outlines a mid-3s ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 1.10 WHIP, with some risk of a decline if his fastball’s attributes take a step back in the year ahead. We’ll take that all day.
I have to mention a slight concern about sophomore seasons for Japanese pitchers. After the large increase in workload during their rookie season, we’ve seen Japanese pitchers wear down in their second year in the majors, creating a small cloud of haze for Imanaga in the year ahead. But every pitcher is an injury risk! Yep, that’s completely fair and I’m not ranking Imanaga lower based on that anxiety – just don’t think of Imanaga as a lock for 32+ starts moreso than any other.
Quick Take: Imanaga’s splitter and sweeper grant him strikeouts against both LHB and RHB while his four-seamer is a reliable strike pitch to set up his vicious weapons. He was able to dodge untimely longballs in 2024 to keep his ERA under 3.00 and while we’re unlikely to see that performance again, the overall production should be there.
Justin Steele (CHC, LHP)
It would be in your best interest to not take Steele’s 2024 campaign at face value. After pulling his hamstring on opening day, Steele struggled to find a rhythm upon his return in May, while his September was disrupted by elbow soreness. The stretch of “I’m actually starting every five days and normal” was phenomenal. Steele’s four-month stretch between May 27th and August 27th returned a 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 26% K rate, and 7% BB rate across 102.2 IP and 17 starts. That’s a stud. The coolest stat? He had a 32% ICR across all his pitches in that time.
That last stat is Steele’s greatest skill – he’s stupid hard to barrel up. It may seem strange given a “two-pitch mix” of four-seamer and slider, but that masks the truth: Steele constantly manipulates his four-seamer and slider in at-bats to keep batters guessing.
His heater is more of a cutter that can straighten out at times when he wants to elevate. Its cut action has proper drop and glove-side movement, but with two strikes, Steele flattens the pitch upstairs and efficiently converts strikeouts with his fastball at an excellent 24% putaway rate. You love to see it.
The slider can be loopy or a bit tighter, shifting its vertical and horizontal bend at will. It helped Steele earn a 25% ICR with the pitch against RHB – a ridiculous feat against opposite-handed batters – while he features the traditional lefty-on-lefty breaker to cruise against LHB.
With his ability to generate low ICR marks and reliably sit above a 23% strikeout rate, Steele is a quintessential Holly who makes you feel great drafting as your SP #3, if not your SP #2. I suspect his elbow soreness of September (he missed only a few games) may allow him to fall further than his peers and I’d take advantage.
Quick Take: I see a reliable workhorse starter for the year ahead who has figured out how to earn strikes confidently since his struggles in 2022. His 1.20+ WHIP has become a relic of the past while he flirts with a 25% strikeout rate and can find the sixth constantly for a high Win chance. What’s not to like?
Jameson Taillon (CHC, RHP)
He’s a strike-thrower without a major whiff pitch. The four-seamer aims to earn called strikes against RHB (nearly 80% strikes?!) and generally works, but it gets demolished by LHB and is the clear problem to solve entering 2025. One solution is a larger focus on the cutter, which did wonders limiting hard contact at 25% usage, though it has abandoned its former affinity for the inside edge, dropping from 75%+ inside location in ’22 to just a 24% mark last year. He outlined in our conversation last year how he had less confidence with this pitch inside after Brandon Marsh hit this perfect one over the ivy in Wrigley in June of 2023, and here’s to hoping he can return with cutters inside in 2025.
Taillon pairs the heater and cutter with a sweeper and curve, saving one for their respective handedness (sweeper for RHB, curve for LHB). The sweeper does its job well, though the curve took a step back last year with a decline in zone rate, reducing its ability to earn strikes. Without hook at his side, the four-seamer took plenty more damage than usual.
I can see Taillon tweak here and there once again for another season and find a way to produce a sub 4.00 ERA with a WHIP hovering 1.20. He’s a traditional Toby who has the ability to make adjustments and figure out how to squeeze the most out of his arsenal, though his ailing back is sure to bark when it likes, creating turmoil out of nowhere (see his 4+ ER stretch in five of six games in July/August last season).
Quick Take: Taillon pumps strikes incessantly, creating a low walk rate at the cost of hittability and fewer strikeouts. If you’re looking for volume without destruction of ratios, Taillon fits the bill, though he’s more of a streaming option than a SP to hold tightly throughout the season.
Matthew Boyd (CHC, LHP)
Here’s an interesting one. I like a lot about Boyd entering this year and I wonder if it makes way for sneaky value. Boyd has become the perfect example of a classic Guardians starter: Two secondaries for whiffs and a highly suspect fastball. His changeup from the left side has come a long way and turned into a proper slowball to flirt with a high strike rate and 20% SwStr rate against RHB and while we haven’t seen it take full shape for an entire season, it seems ready to pounce in 2025. His other half is the slide piece, a breaker that has been his bread-and-butter since he debuted and it is destined to continue befuddling LHB with the Cubs (and maybe some RHB too!).
But that heater. Oh boy, that heater. Boyd has solid command of the pitch with full hiLoc intent, but it has every sign of a poor stuff heater. Too much drop, low extension, 92/93 mph velocity, and it seems ready to be at the whim of the Wrigley winds for longballs galore.
We have yet to see a full season of a dastardly changeup and wicked slider from Boyd, and that alone makes me excited for a potential breakout season – the Cubs are sure to give him a long leash and regular starts every five days. However, temper your expectations as the home run problem could appear in the heat of the summer and balloon his ERA in a hurry.
Quick Take: Boyd has 25% strikeout potential and could become a surprise QS darling with his changeup and slider combo. However, his four-seamer gives me heavy concern and opens the door for a poor ERA on the back of an elevated home run rate. He’s a solid early play for volume out of the gate (likely Diamondbacks + Padres aren’t the most fun matchups, though) with sleeper potential in 15-teamers.
Javier Assad (CHC, RHP)
I can’t sit here and tell you exactly how Assad went on that ridiculous run last year. A 3.73 ERA from his skill set is a wonder to behold, and to think his ERA rose fifty points across his final three games. He had the grace of Koufax and called it a day, hurling 91 mph sinkers to RHB over the plate and getting away with it despite a 14%+ mistake rate. The cutter was spotted well to RHB and that’s fun n whatnot, but not nearly enough to suggest he can consistently boast an ERA under 4.00 with any sort of consistency.
LHB had an even easier time than RHB as well, though I can applaud Assad for spotting front-hip sinkers more often than his contemporaries, leading to a sub 35% ICR as he paired it with his cutter, but we’re still missing a whole lot from this skill audit. I need to speak to your accountant. Be careful drafting Assad this year – he’s the clear #5 on this team and could be replaced before April arrives.
Quick Take: 2024 was a whole lot of smoke and mirrors and Assad looks to be a streaming option at best this year…if he can hold onto his rotation spot in the first place. There are far better Toby types to chase without sacrificing your WHIP.
On The Fringe
Colin Rea (CHC, RHP)
There’s little to love about Rea’s arsenal. It’s a sinker/cutter/four-seamer mix that fails to excite against LHB or RHB, save for four-seamers becoming an effective(ish) putaway offering to RHB last year as he saved it for two-strike counts. The sweeper looks good on paper, but it’s likely due to its rare usage under 15% to both LHB and RHB and wouldn’t carry the same success if used more often.
Rea throws strikes and the Cubs may need someone like that across the season, leaning on their defense to find a way through 5-6 frames. It’s hard to decipher when Rea will have the good grace of Koufax, making him a desperate streamer when starting and a clear avoid during draft season.
Quick Take: Rea may get a chance in the rotation if Assad stumbles in the spring or an injury appears early, but he’s a low impact arm reserved for desperate streams. His fastballs are too mediocre and he lacks a reliable whiff pitch to carve lineups. Look elsewhere.
Ben Brown (CHC, RHP)
I hate to be the one to splash cold water on Brown, but what we’ve seen so far is not a starter ready to dominate your leagues. His four-seamer sat 96 mph as a reliever and while it had good extension, its vert and HAVAA are not ideal, nor is his ability to locate the fastball, resulting in a 4.1% SwStr rate against RHB. That’s horrid. Its 55%+ ICR against RHB shouldn’t be a surprise to complement that SwStr rate, and while it performed better against LHB, I have little confidence it’ll be a great pitch for him in 2025.
The “curve” is the star of the show. It acts more like a slider at a whopping 86 mph, and his ability to locate it down-and-away propelled a 30% SwStr rate and 38% putaway rate against RHB. Ahhh, that’s why he had a 29% strikeout rate. It was still strong against LHB, even if it was demolished when hung over the plate, and it’s the sole reason Brown is an exciting name.
That said, he needs a third pitch. I don’t see a reliable starter with that knuckle-curve and mediocre four-seamer. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t focusing on a cutter this winter to bridge the gap inside the zone and take advantage of the extension he has, and if I see it used frequently in the spring, I may change my tune in a hurry. A cutter would keep batters off the heater, earn more strikes, and allow him to set up the curve more often to LHB. But will it happen? And if he does, will the Cubs let him start regularly? I’m not sure, nor do I know if a new cutter nullifies his four-seamer command problems enough. Keep an eye on it.
Quick Take: The current version of Brown with just two pitches and a questionable fastball does not outline a starter you should target for drafts. However, if he learns a high-80s cutter and flexes it during the spring, Brown becomes a solid late round flier. His knuckle-curve is elite and needs a pitch outside his four-seamer to set the table.
Jordan Wicks (CHC, RHP)
Pay attention to Wicks. His changeup command is still in development, but looks to be cookie-cutter from the Walmart box for demolishing RHB. With more time on the bump, expect him to refine its precision and trim the mistakes far outside and off the plate.
For now…that’s the exciting part. I liked his high four-seamer intent with 17″ of iVB last year and it could pay dividends if he gets his changeup command in line, but is rather hittable otherwise. His slider lacks the bite and feel you want from a southpaw, making his time against LHB more difficult than others, even with great intent to jam with sinkers inside.
The pieces are there for a decent starter and if the breaking ball improves along with his overall command, a Toby can take shape. It may be a while, though, and it’s not worth a draft pick.
Quick Take: Wicks has a great changeup from the left side, but is still putting together the rest of the repertoire to support it, while needing a sprinkle of command to join him along the way. The Cubs likely see him as a back-up option to the rotation in the spring and if he’s not regularly starting out of the gate, he’ll get his chance early in the season once refined in Triple-A.
Names To Know
Nate Pearson (CHC, RHP)
The Cubs expressed their intent to stretch out Pearson as a starter in the spring…but not entirely. Pearson the starter has obvious appeal with a 95 mph four-seamer (97+ out of the pen) that comes with near seven feet of extension and a phenomenal 1.6 HAVAA with decent iVB (all the good things!), backed up by a whiff-inducing slider and…well that slider. Pearson’s biggest enemy is his command, which limits his whiffs on both the heater and slider despite their overwhelming stuff. It’s the classic reliever mold and even if he becomes a regular starter, his volatility is sure to follow, creating a HIPSTER, not a stud.
Cody Poteet (CHC, RHP)
You may remember Poteet with the Yankees last year for a handful of games when they were dealing with the injury bug. Poteet is a Toby at best, reliant on his command of sinkers, four-seamers, changeups, and sweepers around the edges of the plate. There isn’t a major whiff pitch in the lot, sadly, though his ability to maneuver around the edges mixed with a good defense behind him can squeeze the most out of his stuff to go five productive frames for the Cubs. Not the worst 15-team streamer when that time arrives, but not enough of an impact in shallower formats.
Chris Flexen (CHC, RHP)
Doesn’t Chris know that you don’t want to dip into the Chicago beaches? The Cubs signed Flexen on 2/17 to give them a touch more depth in their rotation, who has his moments where the changeup cooks and all his pitches across the deep arsenal find their role to land on the edges and mix up batters enough across five or six frames. I have no belief the Cubs will be in a situation where they are rolling Flexen out there with any regularity but in a super desperate moment? Yeah, I can see that.
Relevant Prospects
Caleb Kilian (CHC, RHP)
I fell for Kilian in spring of 2024…until he hurt his shoulder and missed a ton of time. Suddenly, I awoke in late September to discover Kilian returned to the majors and flirted with the same skills that made us hyped six months prior. Kilian’s heaters range from low-to-upper 90s (yes, it’s weird. He’ll throw 91 mph then 97 mph and apparently it’s the same pitch…?) with above-average extension, with sinkers sitting armside against RHB, and his four-seamer filling up the rest of the plate. The cutter is the star of the show, though, with aggressive break at 86 mph (maybe it’s just a cutter?), plus a sweeper, curve, and even a rare changeup. He’s still in development, though, and I’m awfully curious to watch him in March. I imagine Kilian as the first prospect to get the shot if he’s ready to go, but if I had to guess, he’s 7th or 8th on the list behind Wicks at the very least. Pay attention to Kilian.
Cade Horton (CHC, RHP)
Horton did not look good early in 2024 and was eventually shut down with a shoulder injury, a setback he’s still recovering from with no clear timetable for the year ahead. I have low expectations for Horton with poor extension and a cut-fastball as his primary driver, especially without a filthy slider (think Bradish), even if he does have great feel for it. The pedigree is grand and you shouldn’t ignore him for the future (Taillon incessantly praised Horton’s work ethic and mental framework when I spoke to him last May), but it’s unlikely 2025 is the year we see Cade return fantasy value.
Brandon Birdsell (CHC, RHP)
Birdsell’s Triple-A numbers have made many excited, but inspecting his pitches with our PL Pro MiLB PLV cards, I don’t see anything special that translates to the majors. Even giving him the benefit of analyzing just the ten strikeout game shown above, Birdsell’s four-seamer sat 95 mph with terrible 5.8 feet of extension, mid 15″ iVB, and an incredibly steep attack angle that makes me surprised he earned as many strikeouts on the pitch as he did. Its cut action may be helping a touch or maybe his ~90 mph slider (that’s really a cutter) is confusing batters with the heater, but the stuff doesn’t align with the results. What about command? The slider was nestled in the zone without much precision, while the four-seamer sat in the zone and didn’t hug edges. The curve drops plenty and can be a surprise pitch, but it was mostly two-pitch without an elite pitch. That doesn’t sit right with me. I’m curious if Tyler Zombro can work with Birdsell to find another offering or another gear in his arsenal to help Birdsell find success against major league talent.
Connor Noland (CHC, RHP)
Noland is a crafty right-hander with a deep arsenal, paving the way for a few starts here and there across 2025 when the Cubs need an arm. His lack of whiffability makes him a poor choice for fantasy squads and given the likely role of spot-starter, he may not be stretched out enough to consider for QS leagues if given the chance for starts. He’s not the one to target.
Jaxon Wiggins (CHC, RHP)
Drafted in 2023 and only ~60 IP in A/A+ ball last year when returning from TJS, Jaxon is highly unlikely to appear in 2025. He throws mid-to-upper 90s with a two-plane slider, propelling his near 30% strikeout rate in 2024 that could continue once in the majors. However, his command is spotty and is working on a third offering to find the zone more frequently (changeup had its moments!) and smooth out the arsenal. He’s a raw arm who could take strides in Double-A when he gets promoted and we can return to Jaxon next winter to discuss his development.
Wil Jensen (CHC, RHP)
Jensen was taken by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft and doesn’t look to be anything at all. Low 90s heaters with poor movement, a decent slider, and rare change/curves as well. Now on the 40-man, we may see Jensen appear in relief or the rare spot start, but hot dang does this not look like an arm worthwhile for your fantasy teams. H*ck, it was hard enough to even find anything on him in the first place. Let’s move on.
