To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Framber Valdez (HOU, LHP)
Valdez had a 3.84 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with a 19% strikeout rate through his first fifteen starts of the season. After that July 4th start, 1.91 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, with a 30% strikeout rate in thirteen starts. Uhhhhhhh. He saved your season and the nation’s fireworks woke him up. He saw the lights. It’s pretty clear what changed as it rode toward him in shining armor.
The curveball. That gorgeous curveball with an eye slit I still can’t believe knights could actually see through. Valdez found the pitch that eluded him year, ramping up its usage almost ten points to 36% of the time and the results followed. It went from a 28% CSW at four whiffs per start to a 33% CSW and seven whiffs per start. That’s a lot of whiffs! Sure was. And I have no idea what to expect this season.
You’ll hear some people hand wave to dual nature of last season from Valdez (just draft him and slot him in there, he’ll be fine) and I just can’t do that. His second half was extreme and unreliable as a sample to predict the year ahead, while the first three months were more familiar to the tone we’ve seen in the past – the sinker allows hits that drives up the WHIP and the secondaries come and go.
This isn’t completely fair, though. Valdez did pull back on the cutter/slider (it’s the same pitch) to favor the curve more against LHB, which worked in his favor, even if the two pitches had a ten-point difference in strike rate (67% slider vs 57% curve). I wonder what approach we see from Valdez here next season.
I could go on for a while. The sinker lost a ton of drop in 2023 and regained in all in 2024, which outlines the return of grounders and improved contact on the sinker, the changeup can be very effective when working and helps his sinker against RHB, and there is a conversation to be had about losing Alex Bregman at third base but upgrading massively at first with the introduction of Christian Walker. I’m calling it a wash for now, though is a stud defender at the hot corner more important? I CAN GO ALL DAY.
I threw up my hands and slotted Valdez inside the Top 30 after my initial intentions to go outside the Top 30. I imagine many of y’all want him higher (especially in deeper leagues) and I see more of the first half version coming again – a pitch who will hurt your WHIP without a ton of strikeouts and is very replaceable on the waiver wire. If I truly believed that, I wouldn’t have him here, which bakes in the possibility he figured out his curve and will have it for the full season ahead. That would be absolutely lovely.
Quick Take: The tale of two halves rooted in a hyper reliance on sinkers from Valdez has me turning away from him in drafts. Expect a regression in hits and strikeouts without the savior curveball returning in all likelihood, though there is a chance he can provide good enough ratios across a full season with double-digit wins. There are many other options I prefer.
Hunter Brown (HOU, RHP)
Hunter is a weird one and to be honest, I generally don’t like drafting weird. You may remember Hunter’s start to the year being a bit shaky to say the least, with a 5 ER clunker against the Rangers getting off the hook after he imploded for 9 ER and 11 Hits across just two outs in Kansas City the very next week. Managers were put in a tough spot and those who elected to hold Brown were rewarded with riches – a 2.88 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 162.1 IP with a 26% strikeout rate for his next 28 games. I know many hate this approach (you can’t ignore what you don’t like!), but deep down, y’all know it to be true. Be honest.
I remember writing about Brown across the year and not quite making sense of it all. Some starts he’d find a secondary and fall in love with it, others lean into four-seamers only to go sinker-strong the next. It felt like a pitcher trying to figure himself out, experimenting with a deep seven-pitch mix that was really a five-pitch mix, and that’s generous to a changeup reserved for LHB that he shouldn’t throw much at all.
The approach turned into a mini-Wheeler, without the same oh snap that Wheeler brings. Despite the 17″ of iVB on the four-seamer, it has expected movement based on Brown’s steep arm angle, making it have deadzone movement. So does the sinker. And the cutter. You can’t be serious. Sure am. It’s awfully frustrating given Brown’s ability to locate the heater upstairs and pair it with the sinker inside to RHB, and while I think Brown’s mix of the two is a reason he’s been able to overcome it (more sinkers than four-seamers to RHB as the year went on), it concerns me moving forward. But the four-seamer had a 15% SwStr to RHB! With a poor ICR and it is sure to be a problem again in the year ahead.
I also question his feel for spin. Brown moved on from the slider to introduce more cutters (deadzone cutter, remember) and he doesn’t have a whiff-friendly secondary offering left. The curve is a big fella that catalyzed 2023’s strikeout rate against both LHB and RHB, but its usage dropped dramatically in 2024, now mainly reserved for LHB to get early called strikes with the occasional punchout.
I’m concerned the high putaway rates on his four-seamer will fall in 2025, bringing Brown to a 22% strikeout rate instead of the 25%+ we’ve seen previously. It feels weird to say that after boasting a 25%+ clip across two full seasons, and I may be undervaluing his deep arsenal, mind for tinkering, and the Astros organization, though the pitches themselves are not nearly as captivating as many other arms entering the year.
Brown is the perfect example of a pitcher I’d like to roster simply because he’s on the Astros and should have volume that doesn’t hurt. However, there are many pitchers that do that and I see Brown as a regression candidate from the 2.88 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26% strikeout rate (ignore those first three starts, please).
Quick Take: Without a demonstrative legit pitch in his arsenal, I’m skeptical Brown can replicate the stellar 28 game run he displayed after getting bruised by Kansas City. There isn’t a filthy breaker in the mix and his four-seamer + sinker are well spotted but are not elite heaters. It doesn’t add up to another sustainable season of success without growth.
Ronel Blanco (HOU, RHP)
It was all kinds of fun watching Blanco dominate at the beginning of the year. A no-hitter to his name as a 30-year-old finally getting a proper shot was the traditional story baseball is made for and sadly, it seems we all viewed Blanco’s rise to stardom as a one-hit-wonder. (You said it was a no-hit game. Please, not now.) Last year’s big surprise was the changeup’s evolution into a major facet of his approach, allowing him to keep away his four-seamer a bit more and paving the way for his elite slider. I’m not counting out the slowball for another year, which fortunately prevents Blanco from breaking the Huascar Rule. Phew.
Consider Blanco near the end of your drafts. He’s likely to face the Mets, Twins, Angels, and Cardinals out of the gate and that seems like a good arm near the backend of your rotation. He’ll get you Wins, likely a fair number of strikeouts, and tell us early on if he’s capable of producing at the level of a Holly for your 12-teamers. The price is right where he doesn’t have to be your SP #4, and with his LOB rate and BABIP normalizing, you may see a WHIP closer to 1.20 and an ERA fighting to stay closer to 3.00 than 4.00, but I’d take a shot. There’s enough value in his strikeout ability and Win potential to make this work.
Quick Take: He’s sure to allow far more hits (6.1 hits-per-nine is absurdly low and unsustainable) and strand fewer runners, though his slider and changeup are good enough to keep strikeouts flowing. Merged with a high Win potential and a long leash on the Astros, Blanco is worth a mid-to-late round pick to mix alongside volatile fliers.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU, RHP)
I’m making the “Pasta Pirate” one of my targets once I have 4-5 established starters in my 12-team leagues. Arrighetti has an array of green flags that make him a prime arm to chase out of the gate if his draft cost allows him to be dropped should the worst case scenario appear.
It starts with an incredibly flat four-seamer (97th percentile HAVAA!) and 7.2 feet of extension (95th percentile!) at 94 mph, which wasn’t spotted particularly well last year, but could benefit greatly from a focus inside to RHB to embrace its exceptional horizontal bend early in counts and thrown upstairs in two-strike counts. At 41% usage last year against RHB, he could dial it back to 25-30% (early for a quick out or as a putaway offering) and rely on the secondaries far more often.
Because hot dang, I like those secondaries. Arrighetti has flexed four different options, three appearing against RHB – a cutter for strikes (76% strikes) and a hook + sweeper for whiffs (18%+ SwStr each). I’m a huge fan of that and hope to see the curveball get a little more action than 14% usage next year. The sweeper takes a backseat against LHB in favor of more curves and a spotty changeup that could get the axe entering this year, with the cutter stealing the show with a blissful 62% STR-ICR rate (league average is 49% on cutters!).
All of that is to say he has a wide array of options merged with whiffs on a winning team that will have him go every five days, giving him a path to a potential 170+ inning season. His horrific 2024 ratios mask a phenomenal run of 14 games to end the year once he got comfortable in the majors, returning a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 29% strikeout rate across his final 76 frames. He has all the things you want, the last ingredient is the standard sprinkle of development we normally see in a sophomore year.
Quick Take: Arrighetti has legit strikeout ability and after finding his footing in the majors in the second half, and he has the makings of a proper breakout with regular starts for the Astros. The strikeout explosions may be less frequent without the 30%+ putaway rate on his curve, but the full arsenal suggests production even if it comes with fewer strikeouts.
On The Fringe
Hayden Wesneski (HOU, RHP)
Wesneski’s sweeper has stolen our hearts for years. As expected, it performed well against RHB last season, but as not expected, it arguably performed better against LHB last season with a stupid good 22% ICR and 19% SwStr rate. It was due to a heavy two-strike usage and incredible efficiency with the pitch down-and-inside, acting as a back-foot slider. Fun stuff. I’m highly skeptical the breaker can perform just as well across a full season and five to six innings inside a single game, but at least there’s a record of it working.
My larger concern comes from the rest of the arsenal. He spots his sinker well inside to RHB – great! – but the four-seamer is highly suspect and gets far too much of the plate, even at seven feet of extension. I’d feel a lot more comfortable with Wesneski if he could go the Wheeler method and get that dang four-seamer upstairs to pair with the sinker better.
In addition, the LHB approach isn’t refined. Outside of the late sweeper, Wesneski goes four-seamer/cutter, which shows some promise (especially the cutter), but the heater gets a ton of the plate and should not replicate its low ICR from 2024…unless the cutter is played off it better and dances between the four-seamer to confound batters with his great extension. It’s a bit of a reach (ha!) and I wouldn’t have expectations for it to come together.
The Astros sure seem to have faith in Wesneski as their SP #5, though. There are only a handful of other options (mostly two prospects without a start in the bigs) and pitching for the ‘Stros is a good situation to be in. I’m concerned we won’t see the mega upside we once envisioned when he unveiled the breaker way back in 2022 (what a day that was as a follower!) and I’m really looking for to seeing Wesneski in the spring. He’ll have the open track to being a starter for the first time in his career and it could mean a shift in approach across the board.
Quick Take: Wesneski is an interesting late flier given his clear claim to the fifth spot of the Astros’ rotation, though he lacks a bit of meat in the arsenal to build upon his legit sweeper. His spring could be highly illuminating and with his potential first matchup of the year coming against the Giants, he could be a great backup option if your early flier doesn’t pan out over opening weekend.
Names To Know
Shawn Dubin (HOU, RHP)
No, I do not expect the Astros to actually rely on Dubin as their SP #5, but if the prospects aren’t ready and Wesneski isn’t up to snuff or something goes wrong with their other five, I’m not sure who else they have to turn to. His heaters are far from special and there is some promise in his curveball to LHB, but the cutter and sweeper have a whole lot of work to do against RHB. He’s a depth piece you can easily ignore until he shows us some jazz hands.
J.P. France (HOU, RHP)
France had surgery for a torn shoulder capsule (yikes) and is likely waving the white flag for all of 2025. I’m sorry France, you deserve better. Than that joke? Yes, that too. Even if he does come back, I highly doubt he’ll have good enough feel for everything to be worthwhile.
Cristian Javier (HOU, RHP)
Javier underwent TJS in June of last year and shouldn’t be expected back before July, let alone at all in 2025. He’s that IL stash you can make in your drafts if you like, though I have a little more caution with him than others given his control problems across his career with a reliance on four-seamer dominance. It seems like we could get something by August or September, but will it be worthwhile? You better drop Javier if you run out of IL spots during the year, which is sure to happen prior to his return, making him more of a “eh, whatever” add in June when you have the free spot.
Luis García Jr. (HOU, RHP)
Garcia isn’t expected back by opening day this year after missing all of 2024 with recovery from TJS and multiple setbacks during rehab. That doesn’t sound good. No, no it doesn’t. Garcia was a fantastic slider/cutter arm with great iVB on the heater that didn’t save it from being the clear weak point. Garcia may struggle to find the same breakers when he ultimately returns, possibly with a worse heater and his health is obviously a major concern. But hey, he’ll be the cost of free and it’s possible he’s better than whatever #5 option the Astros have at the time he’s ready, which could spell some value when the time comes. Don’t forget about him entirely, just don’t go jumping over legit options for the fella.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU, RHP)
McCullers Jr., I really hope you’re okay to pitch again this year. He was the king of hard curveballs + a slider that was a Sweeper before we gave them a proper title, mixed with a sinker that…wasn’t great. I highly question if he’ll still be throwing the same slider that he tossed like hurling “a pizza” across his body before all of his elbow troubles followed, but he’s throwing bullpens now and is expected to return at somepoint this season.
He’s not the worst IL stash out there (what do you have to lose with your last pick?), though I’m not starting in his first start back unless his Triple-A rehab starts are gorgeous. Don’t forget, he’s a famously poor WHIP arm rooted in a lack of non-breakers he can trust in the zone that doesn’t get pummeled for hits. A lot of pitching theory has changed since 2022, though, and it’s possible he’s reshaped himself since we last saw him…I love stuff like this. I hope we get to see him soon.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Miguel Ullola (HOU, RHP)
The Astros may seem like they have a lot of depth (just look at the guys on their IL!) but their #5 is Hayden Wesneski and their #6 is…Shawn Dubin? Forrest Whittley after oh-so-long? Ullola is the one I’m focusing on the most this spring with the Astros with a heater that should get you excited even at 93/94 mph. The sole start he had in Triple-A showcased the pitch with 19-20 inches of vert, a 1.4 HAVAA and supreme intent to land the pitch upstairs. And slightly above-average extension, too! The cutter was a bridge pitch for strikes, curveballs underneath (not as consistent) and I’m sitting here getting amped to watch him in the spring. He could be the next big Houston surprise…or fizzle out if he can’t find enough strikes or find a reliable secondary. Know the name, Ullola, U-L-L-Oooooola.
AJ Blubaugh (HOU, RHP)
During his time in Triple-A, there didn’t seem to be a whole lot to latch onto from Blubaugh. The heater is 92/93 mph with a sweeper, bridge cutter, decent change and curve. Without major SwStr potential (12% in Triple-A) nor a legit heater, I’m passing unless Blubaugh finds another gear this season.
Ryan Gusto (HOU, RHP)
Gusto was properly ignored by the industry before 2024 with an atrocious 2023 season only to collect himself for a solid season in Triple-A last year and position himself as a possible #5 option for the Astros if he dominates camp. He’s a kitchen sink arm who can touch 96 mph, but typically sits 93/94 mph and lacks that absurd pitch. There’s a sweeper for RHB, a cutter for strikes, a decent changeup and whatnot, but I’m missing that reason for us to chase it in fantasy. After all, he boasted just an 11% SwStr rate in Triple-A last year.
Colton Gordon (HOU, LHP)
He’s a soft tossing southpaw with nearly seven feet of extension without an elite changeup. Naaaaah. That may work in Triple-A, but I don’t see this panning out super well in the majors unless that slider is far better than what the Triple-A marks have shown.