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To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Gerrit Cole (NYY, RHP)
It’s hard to make out what to expect from Cole in 2025. On one hand, he’s still really good. He allows weak contact plenty, his four-seamer still misses a number of bats against LHB, the new cutter is effective (20% SwStr to RHB!), and his slider can still carve up RHB, even if not to the extent of old. It’s great to have a 90-100 pitch leash for the Yankees and Cole hasn’t held a WHIP below 1.13 or ERA below 3.50 since 2017.
And yet, here we are. Cole’s velocity dropped two ticks from its 2022 iteration from 98 mph to 96 mph (still good, just not amazing), the slider took a major step back against LHB, and the ole stud McGee simply isn’t there. Watch Cole and you can feel the anxiety of a pitcher grinding it out, not the yooooo I’m KING COLE aura of old. His fastball doesn’t quite instill fear and his new reliance on his curveball to soften the blow of his worse slider feels like your favorite band replacing the drummer. It isn’t the same.
You should still expect production from Cole, assuming his arm is healthy n all. How can we assume that? We can’t, but his injury last season wasn’t a torn UCL or forearm strain. It was swelling. I have less worry about a TJS tear than someone who had a partial tear or similar. Draft Cole and expect a dependable ace, just not one belonging in the top tier of starters in the leagues.
Quick Take: Despite a slower heater and fewer whiffs on his signature breaker, Cole still has the tools of a strong SP #2/borderline SP #1 for fantasy entering the year. His 2024 injury appears to be a moment of the past, making him a safe option across the board as he pitches for a winning ball club.
Max Fried (NYY, LHP)
I think everyone is undervaluing Fried. He missed some time this year with arm inflammation (not a tear) and I’m sure that’s depressing his value at the moment, though I highly doubt the Yankees would have signed him for as much as they did if those workhorse concerns held weight. In addition, Fried had a “down year” despite still returning over 170 innings with a sub 3.30 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with a strikeout per inning. His deep arsenal with legit fastball command allows Fried to generate outs as effectively as anyone (that four-seamer’s cut action inside to RHB is incredible) and his groundball ability in the Bronx is a wonderful match, preventing the short porch from ruining his outings.
There are two facets to Fried’s game I hope he can refine in New York. First is the slowball, a pitch that once induced nearly 20% SwStr rates against RHB fell significantly last season, forcing Fried to reduce its usage in two-strike counts and limiting his strikeout ceiling. There were times Fried needed that pitch in 2024 and it hurt.
The second is dealing with LHB. The sinker can jam batters inside, though it doesn’t do it as frequently as his contemporaries, and without a devastating slider or sweeper for LHB (sub 60% strike rates at roughly 20% usage needs to get better!), Fried’s four-seamer is called upon far too often and it was terrible against LHB last season. Yes, the curveball is still a solid pitch, but it’s not the pitch. That sinker and curve need a bit more help.
These are solvable problems for a command vet like Fried and I’m expecting a rebound across a full year without disruption (after all, Fried is notorious for needing a few starts to rev the engine). I’m all for this.
Quick Take: Fried is as safe of a ratio play as any out there paired with strong volume and high Win potential. His deep arsenal and precise four-seamer to RHB gets him deep into games with room for improvement against LHB that could easily come in the season ahead. He’s a fantastic SP #2 for fantasy squads.
Carlos Rodón (NYY, LHP)
Rodón’s 2024 explained in three parts. First 14 starts: 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 23% K rate, 6% BB rate. Three starts in June: 13.17 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 24% K rate, 8% BB rate. Final 15 starts beginning July 3rd: 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 31% K rate, 9% BB rate. Let’s break this down.
Early season: Rodón was mostly attacking with four-seamers and sliders, with the occasional changeup or cutter. Life was easy, batters didn’t hone in on a specific pitch and balls found gloves, and he did his thing without worry.
June 15th-June 28th: Rodón was figured out. Batters jumped on his early heaters, balls found grass, and he needed to do something different than early heaters, late sliders.
July 3rd-End: Rodón jumped from 8% changeup usage to 20% changeup usage against RHB, mixed in his slider, curves, and cutters a bit more sporadically, and nibbled a touch more to avoid batters jumping out of their shoes for a fastball.
It’s pretty clear Rodón made a shift in the right direction after his turmoil, and I’d be shocked if he returned to his old ways of heavy fastball/slider focus. In addition, Rodón has now returned two 170+ inning seasons in three seasons and looks well equipped for another strong season.
I simply wish I could buy into his heater a touch more. I don’t love its shape and find it a bit too hittable at times, and with the embrace of his changeup to LHB, I wonder if he could add a sinker to jam LHB to keep them from teeing off the 47% ICR pitch. It’s the final piece.
Quick Take: Rodón may not have the greatest WHIP tied to a new approach of nibbling with secondaries, but he’ll come packed with 25-30% strikeouts, many Wins, and an ERA that hopefully won’t get bloated by unfortunate HRs. Draft Rodón without fear of dropping him.
Luis Gil (NYY, RHP)
Gil was so good and so frustrating last season as he did his best to navigate through his first full year in the bigs. What started off as an overpowering four-seamer with changeups and sliders for strikes turned into a mix of worse four-seamers, changeups that fell to a 45% strike rate to LHB in the second half, and a slider that had to step up as he often went Dancing With The Disco down the stretch to get through outings. It may have been a product of fatigue for the rookie, though it does fit the bill for a volatile pitcher like Gil.
I was shocked to see the changeup act as a proper #3 pitch in the spring and it carried well into the season at 91 mph, making it a fantastic complement to the heater. That pitch is everything for Gil if he’s to have success in the year ahead – LHB smoked Gil’s four-seamer and slider, while RHB couldn’t hunt heaters when the changeup was working.
I’m cautiously optimistic about Gil. On one hand, I see a pitcher without stellar control and lean away from chasing them as potential HIPSTER arms. On the other, he has clear strikeout ability, and we often see command take a step forward in sophomore seasons. I’m placing Gil at the part of the draft where I’m expecting him to not be dropped on your 12-teamer squad, though there’s a decent chance it falls apart and you have to move on after witnessing another game with five walks.
Quick Take: Gil can go one of two ways. Either he takes a step forward with his control and is able to reduce his walks by featuring more heaters and sliders over the plate, while adding consistency to the changeup, or he has to figure out what works in each outing and make the best of the control he has. The former speaks to legit SP #2 talent, while the latter is as much of a headache as any. Good luck.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY, RHP)
The biggest difference between 2023 and 2024 Schmidt? Putaway rates on his cutter and curve against LHB. Seriously, this is the biggest change I could find, outside of favoring the cutter a bit more at the cost of breakers to LHB overall. That putaway rate was a 10-15 point increase on both the curve and cutter (same rates of usage in two-strikes, mind you), which is your 21% –> 26% jump in strikeout rate overall. That’s it? That’s it.
The cutter and sinker still struggle to limit hard contact against RHB, sadly, while LHB aren’t bowled over by the increased cutter usage. It all works and is generally effective, but it’s not a demonstrative effort from Schmidt, which explains why he completed at least six frames just twice in sixteen starts last year. Schmidt has to squeeze everything out of his arsenal to get through frames without that de facto “Hit this” pitch as he lacks a high caliber heater.
That’s not to say I dislike Schmidt for 2025, it’s more that I don’t have excitement to grab him in drafts. He may flirt with a 25% strikeout rate again, though it’s more likely he comes short, while failing to be a reliable volume arm in the process. He’s a solid Toby who could be more, especially if he can be a touch more efficient to go a full six more often than in the past, stealing Wins in the process.
Quick Take: Schmidt’s lack of overpowering heater or destructive breaker makes him less efficient than his “craftiness” would imply. Still, he has 25% strikeout rate potential while comfortably pitching every five days for a winning ball club. It may not be as explosive and productive as you’d like in your 12-teamers, though.
On The Fringe
Marcus Stroman (NYY, RHP)
I have to hand it to Eno Sarris for this one. While I have zero interest in Stroman in a 12-teamer (he’s a Toby at best), Eno noted that it’s highly likely for the Yankees to deal Stroman to a team desperate to fill innings in 2025. It makes Stroman as a potential sleeper for deeper leagues where a 4.00 ERA and 1.20ish WHIP is held onto. For all y’all in shallower leagues or trying to find something more? You can step aside. It’s a sinker that simply isn’t as effective as it used to be, paired with curveballs for RHB and cutters/sliders for LHB…and none of them consistent start-to-start.
Once Stroman finds a home in a rotation (likely not in New York), you can consider him as a streaming option when his turn comes around in Quality Start leagues. Win leagues? The Yankees are likely to pull him somewhat quickly if he sticks around, while I expect whatever team that would deal for Stroman isn’t supported by a strong offense. This ain’t it y’all.
Quick Take: Stroman’s signature sinker isn’t as effective as it used to be, while the secondaries lack the consistency and punch they need to give you the confidence of production whenever he starts…whenever that is.
Names To Know
Will Warren (NYY, RHP)
Hey Warren, you ready to do this? Yep. No, for real this time? Oh. I think so? Good because Stroman is likely to be dealt and you’re looking like the sixth starter on this squad. I have a few favors to ask. Last time, you had horrible strike rates on both your sweeper and changeup. Sure did. You realize that your sinker and four-seamer are not great, right? Uh huh. And that your secondaries are supposed to carry the weights? Yup. Sooooo… OKAY NICK, I GET IT.
Warren may be undervalued because of how poor his rookie campaign went, with the aforementioned sweeper and changeup failing at their roles and allowing batters to swat heaters far too often. As long as both pitches handle RHB and LHB respectively, Warren has good enough sinker command to make it work as a Toby in 12-teamers. I may take a start or two to ensure he’s locked in before chasing it, though.
JT Brubaker (NYY, RHP)
Yoooo it’s Coffee Cakes! In New York Citttt-aaay! And he’s charging $10 a beer-battered croissant! It’s called a Coorsant! Dang, I should have saved that for his inevitable signing in Colorado. Annnnyway, we haven’t seen Brubaker in the league since 2022 after getting TJS in early 2023, and I’m wondering if he still has his whiff heavy slider and decent curveball. The sinker’s 17″ of horizontal run can be interesting, but moreso as a surprise pitch to RHB, not as the pitch to get strikes. That’s not right. I’m awfully curious if the Yankees can make something out of this and watch Coffee Cakes appear out of nowhere with a new cutter and changeup to be the latest mold of the Schmidt/King/Warren to hit the Bronx. Wouldn’t that be something.
Carlos Carrasco (NYY, RHP)
Oh dang, Carlos is in New York now? He was before. Naaaah, that was in FLUSHING MEADOWS y’all. This is DA BRONX. Please stop. Is that to me or Carrasco pitching for the Yankees? Yes. In all seriousness, Carrasco still has a respectable changeup and slider, it’s just about finding something else against LHB and RHB respectively that isn’t his sinker and four-seamer. Those are rough these days.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to Mlb.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Yoendrys Gómez (NYY, RHP)
I’m not seeing much here to excite me about Gómez. It’s a low 90s heater without great shape with a typical sweeper for RHB and a good curve + changeup against LHB. It’s fine, I guess. There’s no need to target Gómez.
Cam Schlittler (NYY, RHP)
He throws low-to-mid 90s sinkers with some depth pieces that lack electricity. He was able to collect strikeouts nearly 30% of the time in Double-A, using his hard slider as his favorite breaker, but it’s not a skill set that speaks toward replication in the majors.
Chase Hampton (NYY, RHP)
Injuries have derailed his growth and it’s unlikely we see him in 2025 after just 18.2 IP in 2024 up to Double-A. If his velocity can sit above 94 mph with a slew of options once again, he could force the Yankees into giving him a taste while he’s in a rhythm, but for now, let’s wait to see how he settles in after missing so much time.
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (NYY, RHP)
He’s a 21-year-old who has been in the minors for a few years now and experienced a career high in innings with a velocity jump to mid 90s in the first, only for it to decline in the second. There seems to be another year or two until we see ERC show up in the bigs after pitching as high as A+ ball for the Red Sox last season, though his slim 180-pound frame could fill out further as he refines his full arsenal. He’s an interesting dynasty play for 2027, but not for 2025 redraft.
Brock Selvidge (NYY, LHP)
A lefty with a good slider and developing changeup paired with a low-90s heater. If he finds the control and feel for the fastball and changeup, Brock could squeeze his way into a spot start after 16 games in Double-A last year, though it’s more likely than not he’ll have to wait until 2025. Without the velocity, Selvidge needs that command to flirt with relevancy.
Henry Lalane (NYY, LHP)
He’s turning 21-years-old in 2025 and endured injuries that limited him to just six games in 2024, reaching Single-A for a few starts in August, though he appeared in the Spring Breakout series last March and had a few moments with his changeup and breaker. He’s a big southpaw without electricity, but it’s possible the velocity grows as he has a good foundation for feel and command at a young age. Sadly, he’s far away from the bigs and shouldn’t be expected to appear until 2026 at the earliest.
Ben Hess (NYY, RHP)
Drafted in the first round out of Alabama by the Yankees in 2024, you should not expect to see Hess in the year ahead. He’s a large fella who sat 94 mph (touched 98) with good extension and ride, working off a huge curveball in the upper 70s that misses a ton of bats and a high 80s slider. I’m awfully curious how his first year in professional ball plays out and if he can build on top of this foundation to make an appearance as soon as 2026.
Bryce Cunningham (NYY, RHP)
Like Hess, Cunningham was drafted in 2024 and has yet to pitch professionally. He throws in the mid 90s with a great changeup and it’ll take some time for the Yankees to work with him to a point that he becomes fantasy relevant as a starter.
Cade Smith (NYY, RHP)
Not to be confused with the reliever on the Guardians, Cade features a flat HAVAA four-seamer with above-average vert that gets me a touch excited and pairs it with a legit slider that could turn him into an effective arm out of the pen even at 92/93 mph. That dreaded “reliever” tag could be eradicated if his control improves or another secondary comes alive in the arsenal and it may be a bit before we see those come to fruition.