To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Tarik Skubal (DET, LHP)
It feels a bit strange to have Skubal as my SP #1 entering 2025. His sinker and slider performance against LHB is sure to regress (stupid good ICR rates despite non-elite locations + one sole HR allowed) and Skubal’s heater doesn’t come with anything eye-popping outside of hitting 97 mph, but there is one obvious reason for the high rank: his floor. Skubal is one of the few arms in the draft who you can rely upon for six frames every five games with at least a 25% strikeout rate (if not 30%) and stellar ratios. His changeup to RHB is sure to demoralize batters for another season at an exceptional level, his Wins should comfortably sit about double-digits, and his overall command outlines another 5% walk rate with a low hit-per-nine. Skubal has the volume with a great skill set and benefits as a LHP with multiple weapons at elite velocity. You want elite safety with your first SP pick. That’s Skubal.
Quick Take: I wouldn’t be surprised if Skubal ended the year outside the Top 3 SP even if he misses the IL, but his elite changeup merged with mid-to-upper 90s, excellent command, and a phenomenal situation makes Skubal the safest elite arm to chase if you’re going SP early.
Jack Flaherty (DET, RHP)
The move to the Tigers is generally good for Flaherty as they’ll give him a proper leash every five days and feast on the AL Central throughout the season. However, Flaherty’s history of undulating ability has me wondering how close he can get to reaching the same heights as 2024.
You can find gains everywhere across last year’s campaign. Flaherty’s four-seamer returned two extra inches of iVB, but the real intrigue is its horizontal bend which makes it act like a reverse two-seamer, which turned the pitch into an elite called strike machine to LHB, landing the heater better than ever along the gloveside edge (I can’t emphasize enough how much better his command was to LHB). It still got hit hard when batters elected to swing, though, and even harder by RHB at a horrible 47% ICR, though they also whiffed far more often at a 13/14% clip and even returned Flaherty with a massive 27% putaway rate in 2024. Huh.
The slider and curve are the actual stars of the show, though. The former became as deadly as ever against LHB with a huge jump in SwStr and Putaway rate to pair with the backdoor four-seamer, though it went through phases during the season, settling on a sub 60% strike rate and a terrible 15% putaway rate by the end of the year. Flaherty’s ability to land the pitch just under the zone to LHB was marvelous, even if I’m skeptical he can find that feel for another season.
Flaherty’s hook obliterated RHB with fantastic precision under the zone but not too far, akin to his slider. LHB didn’t fare much better either, and it’s clear Flaherty was in a stupid good rhythm with his breakers.
You may pick up my hesitation from that last sentence. We’ve seen Flaherty go through all kinds of stretches across his career, and it’s rare for him to plateau. In fact, last season saw a significant decline once he arrived in Los Angeles, returning a 3.58 ERA and 1.28 WHIP across his ten games, even lowering his strikeout rate to 24% across his final eight starts. It’s not a death sentence but a reminder that “hey, he was just THAT good early in the year.” We shouldn’t expect his elite command from the first half run to return – his slider strike rate fell to just 54% in that final stretch with a worse heater to RHB.
I’m ranking Flaherty in a spot that believes he made adjustments to fine-tune his command that should appear in Detroit across the season ahead. However, Flaherty may struggle to find the same rhythm he had last year and fail to spot the curve and slider so dang well that it allows his four-seamer to be hunted by both LHB and RHB, leading to what we saw in 2022 and 2023. It’s a gamble and you’d be wise to secure safer options around Flaherty in your drafts.
Quick Take: The extreme strikeout performances of last year will likely be rare occurrences in 2025 unless he can capture the same feel for his breakers out of camp and it makes me hesitant to take Flaherty with a high-mid round pick. However, I’m believing in mechanical gains that granted him a boost in his four-seamer and his team context to believe he will overall more helpful than harmful.
Reese Olson (DET, RHP)
Olson has a great slider that is awfully effective against both LHB and RHB (with room to improve against RHB, come on, 58% strike rate? Really?) and a deadly weapon of a changeup against both RHB and LHB, though there were many games where he struggled to get the pitch high enough to LHB and failed to earn strikes he normally demands.
The biggest questions lie in his fastballs, the only trusted alternatives to the slider and changeup. Olson wisely turns to the sinker against RHB and was able to keep them at bay, though he can do a better job of jamming them instead of letting them fly carelessly over the plate. RHB get served his four-seamer 37% of the time, the worst offering in his arsenal, and I wonder if there’s an alternative in the future to allow Olson to reduce its usage to a sub 25% rate (or at least 30%). If not, it’ll continue to be a source of trouble as he hopes the change and slider do enough to keep him afloat.
Olson looks like the classic mold of a division rival SP in Ohio and that can turn him into a solid floor arm with 25% strikeout upside, though I’m a touch tepid until his changeup can find a strike rate above 60% and turn up in a consistent string of starts. In addition, Olson has a tough matchup against the Dodgers to kick off the season as the SP #3, though if you can stomach that, he should be easy going through the rest of April. In 15-teamers, his first outing isn’t of importance and should be a target in the mid-rounds, while in 12-teamers I’m willing to gauge the flow of my draft to see if there are a large array of upside fliers to take instead – I don’t feel as though I need to draft Olson and it’s a possibility the changeup doesn’t form and you’re left with a Toby for the season after stashing past the Dodgers.
Quick Take: Olson has legit potential as a strong volume arm if he can nail down his changeup to both LHB and RHB, while I’m hoping he finds a solution to limit his four-seamer against LHB. Consider him as a Holly flier and a strong target for deeper leagues.
Casey Mize (DET, RHP)
The Tigers really want Mize to work out. We all want Mize to work out. What, like doing more pushups? Um, no. We want him to soar during the spring, seize a rotation spot, and never let go, Jack. How did you know my name?! With a four-seamer at 95/96 mph and over seven feet of extension, the path to success lands on the shoulders of his #2 pitch. The splitter? Maybe, but probably not. It could very much work if that pitch were a consistent strike offering, but its 58% clip last year tells you it’s not. No, I’m referring to the 88/89 mph slider/cutter thing he had when he first debuted, and I’d even love him to have an even harder one at 90/91 mph to take advantage of his extension. H*ck, you saw his sinker get involved last year and it earned a ton of strikes and weak contact. It’s right there!
Mize performs well with the splitter against LHB, well enough that I’m not overly concerned with the pitch merged with four-seamers to survive enough. It’s really about dominating RHB consistently and I don’t see a path unless his heater hits another gear, the splitter becomes a 65%+ strike pitch, or he finds that hard cutter to play off the fastballs. He’s a great arm to monitor during the spring, especially with Alex Cobb delayed with a hip injury. It’s Mize’s rotation spot to lose at this point.
Quick Take: I’m a little pessimistic that Mize can make all the tweaks that would demand a fantasy pick-up, but he should be closely watched during the spring. If we see a hard slider/cutter around 90 mph that he can play off the four-seamer, we may have the Mize we’ve waited so long to arrive.
On The Fringe
Brant Hurter (DET, LHP)
I want to take a moment to let everyone appreciate Hurter’s absurd performance as a follower last year. His sinker held a stupid good 21% ICR across 80% strikes and that’s BONKERS. That same sinker had an 82% strike rate to RHB and earned all of the outs in the process with a sweeper that held a 20% ICR and it’s just so unreal. Fantastic command, sure, but a fair bit of good fortune along the way and I have to believe the Tigers are giving him a look as a follower again (especially after he mentioned he preferred being a follower over being the starter. No, I’ll never understand the man.).
Despite how cool it is for Hurter to have such success with his sinker at 92/93 mph, I cannot buy into the success repeating for another season. His sweeper command was just too dang good and that sinker should get hit a bit harder now that batters are more aware of what he does. In addition, the Tigers have a fair number of options for the open rotation spot and I’d imagine they’d love to save Hurter for the long relief – after all, he prefers it.
Quick Take: Hurter’s ridiculous run last year was an incredible thrill, but unlikely to be replicated for another year given his exceptional sinker performance. If he does get opportunities, feel free to stream it (especially in a Max Starts league), but leave him for the wire in all but draft-and-holds.
Matt Manning (DET, RHP)
Manning has some fun aspects to his four-seamer – near seven feet of extension, cut action, and 1.4 HAVAA – but the fella flirts with 95/96 mph only to fall down to 93/94 mph in season. He has a sweeper that should perform well against RHB and…oh. That’s it? Hmmmm. I was hyped last year seeing the four-seamer increase its vert and velocity in the spring only for him to get demoted out of nowhere and never get his confidence back up.
I’m going to hold back praise of Manning until I see a secondary that isn’t the sweeper that he can rely on and a four-seamer that dominates akin to the 95/96 mph we saw in the spring last year. We saw it last year and he was still demoted! Hmmm, great point. Maybe we wait until he has a rotation spot and a game or two under his belt? That seems right.
Quick Take: Manning needs to get his velocity back and find a bit more arsenal depth before we can jump back in. A little bit of improved command to take advantage of his flat attack angle would help plenty, too.
Jackson Jobe (DET, RHP)
I don’t care for Jobe. YOU TAKE THAT BACK. Sure, he doesn’t have elite vert. Or extension. And didn’t get all the whiffs in the ultra brief look we got of him. But the dude throws hard, has a massive variety of pitches (he’s up to six now!) and profiles out to be a legit arm with velocity and a kitchen sink of filth.
Or not. The situation is simple: If he earns a spot on the rotation, you dang well better draft the guy. If he doesn’t, I imagine the Tigers will keep him in the minors until May or so, possibly saving bullets and stretching him out slowly so he can be ready when he appears. I’m not the biggest fan of stashing him across that time – April rosters spots are valuable yo! – but I’d imagine he’d be a Top 60 SP the moment he arrives. Do what you like with that information, I’m going to suggest you draft him now and possibly drop if he doesn’t make the rotation out of camp. Cool? Cool.
Quick Take: Jobe didn’t have as ultra dominant of a 2024 as we expected throughout the minors, but if he’s deserving of a roster spot out of camp, you dang well better take the flamethrower on your fantasy teams.
Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET, RHP)
Sawyer underwent Internal Brace surgery in late April, which spells a return in May/June as he’s had a setback with his hip as well, and should be on your radar. I’d imagine he’ll be sent to the minors before getting placed directly back into the rotation, but…you may want to IL stash him. The dude has 7.5 feet of extension and was sitting 94 mph with a true sinker (93rd percentile drop!) with a slider and changeup that he refused to float upstairs. The guy is made to confound down in the zone and go the Neckbeard approach, while he could theoretically go upstairs with four-seamers at his extension and 1.4 HAVAA.
Sooooo yeah. Here’s a stupid fun sleeper, especially for your draft and holds. Sure, it’s not clear if he’ll be back to normal when he does arrive, but dang. This feels like a super unique skill set with shockingly stellar command that could be super real. Wow.
Quick Take: Gipson-Long has a unique mix of legit vertical pitches that he keeps down merged with Gilbert-esque extension that makes for a very legitimate starter if he’s fully healthy once returning. This is your ultra sneaky IL stash.
Names To Know
Keider Montero (DET, RHP)
Montero was called upon to cover a far more starts than the Tigers ever expected and did his best to survive with a slider that performed well against RHB and…that’s it. Truly, the four-seamer was demolished and the slider performed far worse against LHB. Okay fine, the curve was okay against LHB, happy?!
I doubt the Tigers would lean on Montero out of the gate unless they had no confidence in Jobe and Manning, and even then there are a few more options in Montero’s way. You may see Montero snag some starts across the year and he’ll make for a desperate stream. That’s about it, sadly.
Kenta Maeda (DET, RHP)
There used to be something here, but Maeda is now reserved for long relief and without the same slider and splitter of old with a declining fastball velocity. There have been reports of throwing 91-92 in the spring as he fights for a rotation spot this spring, though I’d be incredibly shocked if he beat out the plethora of options.
Alex Cobb (DET, RHP)
Cobb signed a deal with the Tigers only for his hip injury to appear and once again set him back. He’ll be on the IL to start the season and it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to be on the mound. And while I would normally stand here and say, “It doesn’t matter, you know you don’t want this,” I will acknowledge that Cobb has had a sub 4.00 ERA across each of the last four seasons (something Nick Pivetta has never done in eight…SORRY NICK). But yes, the WHIP will likely be high based on his sinker/curve approach that relies on “The Thing” (his splitter) cooking on a given night. It’s not the guy you want for standard leagues and he’s at best a deep league waiver wire play for the week.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Ty Madden (DET, RHP)
I’m struggling to find the element of Madden’s arsenal to latch onto and say “Aha! There’s the upside we’re looking for.” There are moments with his slider and cutter, but the 94 mph heater lacks the punch you want as a foundational pitch and the splitter is not a reliable offering (shocking, I know). Until he develops further (not a given), I’m out on Madden.
Troy Melton (DET, RHP)
Melton dealt with a shoulder strain in August last year and I’m curious to see him get his feet wet in Triple-A. His fastball zips to the glove with a big breaker underneath and it could be a super hittable offering or one with a little extra giddy-up on it that would explain the 28% Strikeout rate and low 7% walk rate. I believe in that control and wonder if he can maintain mid-90s instead of touching it. I don’t have the highest hopes, but he could be better than someone like Montero if the Tigers need an arm this year.
Lael Lockhart (DET, LHP)
I’m not too impressed with the southpaw with his high 80s heater, but the kicker here is his age – at 27 years old and experience in the minors, I’m expecting Lockhart to get a look in the majors this year when the Tigers need innings. There’s a splitter from the left side with a decent slider, and while he may be able to sneak in some strikeouts, this isn’t the play you want it to be.