To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables.
Expected Starters
Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)
Despite being as labeled “safe” and the guy who “we know who he is”, Webb wasn’t who he was. We saw Webb toss over 50 changeups in starts in 2023 only for him to pull back with the pitch last season, leaning into more sinkers against both LHB and RHB. It makes sense – Webb’s slowball saw its ICR balloon from a 31% clip to 46%, while the sinker continued to be a productive called strike offering and find outs on its own.
The sweeper took over for his slider, though I should note the difference in horizontal break between the two is far smaller than you typically see – just three extra inches of break on the sweeper with similar drop and slightly harder velocity on the slider. In addition, the sweeper mimicked the slider’s performance to steal called strikes against LHB while failed to turn into a devastating putaway offering to RHB.
And that’s the real question. Can Webb create a devastating offering outside of his changeup? Batters had a better gameplan against Webb in 2024, ready to attack a changeup earlier in counts and benefited constantly, forcing Webb to pull back on the signature offering in favor of good-not-elite tools instead. We even saw a cutter against LHB thrown 31% of the time in his final start to great effect – 7/20 foul balls showcases how surprised batters were to see it – and you can expect Webb to tinker again in 2025 as he finds a groove.
The sinker will still be productive in a good park and solid defense behind him, enabling the workhorse you’re accustomed to from Webb. It’s relatively safe to assume the changeup will perform better in some fashion as well, and it’s possible the addition of the cutter can improve the arsenal as a whole – no more hunting changeups y’all. I’m optimistic that a draft pick for Webb in 12-teamers returns a WHIP that helps unlike the 1.23 that hurt last year, while his value in deeper formats will continue to be amplified as a reliable arm week in and week out.
Quick Take: Webb will get volume once again and I’m inclined to believe it will come with a better WHIP as his changeup’s results normalize. The new cutter can add a pleasant wrinkle to his mix as well, while we should expect further experimentation with his sweeper/slider to squeeze another SP2/3 floor season from Webb.
Robbie Ray (SFG, LHP)
I’m a bit shocked to say it, but I really like the bed and breakfast for next year. Give me all of that R&R! I was initially hesitant for obvious reasons – his volatility rooted in questionable control of his breakers that lead to his high iVB, but poor HAVAA and extension, heater to get tagged more often than we’d like. However, the slider has routinely been a 20% SwStr pitch against both RHB and LHB and his small sample last year suggests more of the same in the year ahead. His situation in San Francisco is great – a good park to pitch in with an above-average defense and a long leash to push 100 pitches each outing – and another 30% strikeout rate season with volume tells me 200 strikeouts are ahead now that he’s in his TJS honeymoon period (just don’t strain your hammy again, alright?).
I’m also encouraged that his fastball sat 94+ mph consistently in all seven starts last year and was spotted well. When we’ve seen high walk rates from Ray in the past, it often came with a scatterplot of heaters, but this small sample saw great fastball locations and a few blips of slider or curveball command. We didn’t even get the sinker returning from his days with the Mariners and you should bet the pitch returns if he needs to make an adjustment during the season.
I wrestled with where to place Ray on the ranks – is he a Cherry Bomb or a Holly? – and I’ve settled that 1) You are not going to drop Ray 2) He will be a strikeout machine 3) He has a longer leash than the younger Cherry Bomb types. That puts him inside the top Cherry Bomb category as I don’t truly believe he’ll eradicate the ER blowups for the full year. And that’s fine, we all could use another Joe Ryan on our squads.
Quick Take: He’ll be going every five days with a long leash for the Giants and is one of the few arms poised for a 200+ strikeout season. His heater command at 94+ mph is a good sign for better consistency in 2025 in a solid team environment, though there will surely be a sprinkle of difficult stretches along the way.
Justin Verlander (SFG, RHP)
It seems we are all on the same page that Verlander isn’t close to his former self. But is he cooked? If you mean a dry brine, then yes. There’s still value to be had with Verlander, even if his slider doesn’t get nearly the same number of whiffs that it used to against LHB or RHB. Consider Mr. Junior Varsity a Toby for your leagues – he won’t get you a strikeout north of 20%, but he’ll go deep for the Giants constantly with generally productive ratios and a fair number of Wins.
The other aspect to consider is Verlander’s own ego. There is no world where Verlander is showing up just for a paycheck. If he’s lost it, he won’t continue and slog innings with a 5.00+ ERA for an entire season. He still wants to show he has something left in the tank and if that’s gone, well, he gone. You may want to take a shot on Verlander for the Sunday game of opening week against the Reds in Cincy as a stream and take it from there. You’ll be able to drop Verlander for a SP #4/5 after that game if it doesn’t look pretty.
Quick Take: Verlander should be a solid 15-teamer player simply as a pitcher who will find his way through six frames more often than others, even if it doesn’t come with the same slider that propelled a strikeout rate comfortably above 20%. In 12-teamers, he’s a potential Toby who could help teams get through the early weeks, but unlikely to be much more.
Kyle Harrison (SFG, LHP)
There’s plenty to fix with Harrison and unless I’m in a deep league and need to chase something, I’m not touching Harrison until I see legitimate changes. His four-seamer comes with plenty of horizontal break and vertical drop (is it actually a sinker and four-seamer classified as one? Both increased from last year and it would make the most sense if they were combined into one) that speaks to the weak contact allowed to LHB with its high strike rates, but whiffs are hard to come by. It’s a good foundational pitch (not elite) and sets the table for his secondaries to take over. There’s yer problem. Yeah. I know.
Unfortunately, the curve and change are not the goons Harrison can snap his fingers at to Take Care Of It. His hook has difficulty landing away and down to LHB and is reserved mostly as a surprise called strike offering to RHB…or gets smacked when expected. The slowball tried to be the RHB #2 pitch, but failed to hit a 60% strike rate with a paltry 10% SwStr rate as its horizontal movement carried it far outside and failed to tempt batters down-and-away.
He’s not a refined arm with mechanics that speak toward inconsistent release and precision, though I may be harsh on the young southpaw as he’s only 23-years-old. It’s no fun trying to be a clairvoyant, humming with fluttering eyelids as I try to tell you if this is the off-season Harrison adds elements to his game that allow him to soar in the big leagues. However, I refuse to entirely rule out the possibility of Harrison making tweaks to his game that make his changeup a proper weapon or returns to the slider he threw four times to LHB early in the year and quickly abandoned. For now, we wait and see in 12-teamers, hoping he gives us a spark of hope in the spring.
Quick Take: The current version of Harrison is one to easily avoid in drafts this year, save for those in deep formats who are looking for a high upside arm despite a low probability of coming to fruition. However, he’s only 23-years-old, opening the door for rapid development we could see as early as March. He needs it.
On The Fringe
Jordan Hicks (SFG, RHP)
Do you believe that Hicks can throw strikes with his sweeper and splitter? I don’t, and especially not against LHB. Oh golly, he needed help against LHB and that splitter abandoned the cause when Hicks was the in rotation, reliable somewhat only against RHB…which was supposed to be the sweeper’s whole shtick, but even it had a sub 57% strike rate against RHB when things were “good” across his first fifteen starts.
The sinker had to do too dang much. It worked against RHB (Gasp), but LHB pounced on it like they do most sinkers. The Giants moved Hicks back to the pen in the second half and plan to have him start once again this year, though I’m not sure I want to play this game. If strikes are flowing, it can work, though he’s not an efficient pitcher who can cross six frames often (just three of those fifteen games came with six complete innings), making the return not as high as you’d want. Hicks isn’t the 12-teamer play I want to make early, though I can see gravitation toward him if he’s displaying a refined set of secondaries early in the year. In fifteen teamers, you can take a shot on Hicks winning the #5 spot out of camp and finding a groove for at least five innings per start with 4/5 strikeouts per game. I’m not too hopeful this will work out, especially with the depth of options ready to go for the Giants.
Quick Take: Hicks’ sweeper and splitter let him down in 2024, failing to earn strikes consistently and allowing batters to be patient for a walk or a hittable sinker. I lack the confidence Hicks will take a major step forward with either pitch in his second chance at the Giants rotation, though he could be a regular Toby if he does.
Keaton Winn (SFG, RHP)
Winn underwent ulnar nerve transposition surgery in late July, which sounds terrible, but is far better than TJS (it moves a nerve to new position to make it less compressed, reducing pain nearly instantly). It means we may see Winn fight for a job out of camp or be an early option when needed and there may be some sneaky value in deep leagues. The splitter is a great pitch when working and it led to a fantastic 3.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 22% K rate in six April starts before the wheels fell off (likely due to elbow pain – he hit the IL three starts later). I don’t love the arsenal outside of the splitter, but his 96 mph sinker works off the splitter with good horizontal break (just get it inside to RHB dangit!) and a decent slider, saving his four-seamer mostly upstairs as a surprise two-strike pitch. With a good team context, there’s sleeper value in Winn as a reliable Toby in 12-teamers and could be a target in 15-teamers as one of the first guys to find the rotation when an opening appears.
Hayden Birdsong (SFG, RHP)
Can the dude just throw strikes? That’s not to say his stuff is so good that it’s the only thing holding him back – Birdsong sits 96+ mph but doesn’t have elite shape – though the slider showcased what success could be if he was able to execute more often: Birdsong’s tight breaker returned a 68% strike rate and 24% SwStr rate against RHB across 150+ thrown. That’s the good stuff Hayden! THROW IT LIKE THAT. Who are you talking to? His curve and change, mostly. We saw a handful of glorious outings fueled by the hook returning a near 80% strike rate, but it returned a ragged 56% clip for the full year. Nope. And the slowball? It looks nice when it comes out of his hand just right, but hot dang you can tell how frustrating it was to wield.
It’s strange to suggest there’s legit upside in a starter without a four-seamer that has 13-15% SwStr rate potential, but the slider and curve are two stuff-heavy pitches that just need to find strikes more often. Uhhhh, they aren’t the problem. You’re right. It’s the heater’s 57% strike rate to LHB and the constant uncompetitive fastballs that get him into poor counts. It’s painful and I hope he can make the tweak to repeat his release point for more precision. His 27%+ strikeout rate from last year can stick on the back of those breakers if he can, but I’m not expecting it to come with a good ERA or WHIP until the fastball is able to return 65%+ strikes to both LHB and RHB.
Quick Take: He’s a fun upside play who has poor command as a prototypical PEAS. I’m generally pessimistic about poor command arms growing quickly to have enough control to allow their whiff-heavy pitches to prevent baserunners and I’d rather let him sit on the wire when he gets his shot this year.
Tristan Beck (SFG, RHP)
He missed most of last season with a blood clot in his pitching arm and we’re all glad to see Beck back on the mound and fighting for a rotation spot. I’d be surprised to see him get it, though. Beck’s arsenal doesn’t make him a loser, but it’s not where it’s at, either. His above-average extension tries to mask the 93 mph heater at 15-16 iVB and somewhat steep attack angle, but it’s not quite enough, nor does it pair with a pristine approach upstairs. It puts the focus on his sweeper/slider combo against RHB, with the former being effective in the past, and would have to do the heavy lifting in the year ahead. The slider is more of a cutter in approach as a strike pitch, not an aggressive whiff pitch off the heater.
Beck’s curveball is a major focus against LHB, and there isn’t a whole lot to write home about. Without a serviceable changeup, Beck is a bit stranded against LHB, and I’d need to see to another plan of attack early in the year to be confident in Beck as a starter.
It’s not a package that speaks to wild success. Against a RHB lineup, the sweeper could find its groove and collect a fair number of whiffs and punchouts, but I don’t see anything more than a streaming option.
Quick Take: The sweeper has shown promise in the past and could earn whiffs against RHB, but Beck’s middle-of-the-road four-seamer and mediocre slider & curve give him little room for growth. Consider him as a 15-team Toby if given a chance in-season and a rare streamer for shallower formats.
Names To Know
Landen Roupp (SFG, RHP)
I can see why Eno likes him a ton. Roupp’s curve is a legit breaking ball and can be effective to both sides of the plate – CSW darling for LHB, backdoor called strikes to RHB – and the stuff marks are sure to gravitate toward it. There are two problems that need fixing, though. First, Roupp’s sinker has solid lateral movement at 94 mph, but he locates it terribly. This should be a pitch focused on landing inside to RHB, helping the tunneling for his curve, and earning quick outs often. Second, Roupp needs to find his changeup feel against LHB. The sinker’s 30% ICR against LHB is unlikely to stick (he’s working high sinkers against them, which is actually kinda cool…?), and there is some promise in his changeup even with the low strike rate last year – Roupp’s misses were down, not to the side. It makes me see an easier path toward taking a step forward than many others, though I’m not sure Roupp will actually change his sinker approach or refine his changeup to be a proper weapon against LHB. I doubt he’ll beat the other suitors for a rotation spot out of camp, but keep an eye on Roupp as he keeps working in the minors with our PLV Minor League App. If the changeup is improving vs. LHB or sinker gets inside to RHB, you may find a sleeper before anyone else.
Mason Black (SFG, RHP)
Black has a sinker with good lateral movement at 92/93, a four-seamer saved for two strikes that is rightfully saved and not overused, and a big sweeper that failed to earn whiffs against RHB during his brief nine games (eight starts) of 2024. Wait, what does that leave for LHB? Uhhhh. Nothing? 4% changeups? Okay, the slider was featured 12% of the time and it looks more like a cutter at 88 mph, though his feel for it was spotty and I don’t trust it to come together. Without an efficient approach nor a clear path toward debilitating RHB and LHB, I’m not interested in Black this year when he gets another shot in the rotation. Maybe he’ll find a way through 5+ against a weak lineup, but I need more.
Joey Lucchesi (SFG, LHP)
Oh boy, Lucchesi is still around. He’s a non-roster invitee. And still throwing the “Churve”, a curveball thrown with a circle-changeup grip. It kinda makes sense, it kinda hurts my elbow thinking about it, and I kinda want to stop talking about Lucchesi. I don’t expect him to join the team out of camp, though there will be some team that needs random SP depth when the season hits and you may see Joey get a few starts here and there, just like he did last year with the Mets. No, you don’t want him when those starts happen.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to Mlb.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Carson Whisenhunt (SFG, LHP)
He has an 80-grade changeup from the left-side with a 93 mph sinker and a highly suspect cutter and slider around the low 80s. I love an elite changeup from a southpaw, but the sinker command is poor and LHB don’t have a major breaker to fear. I’m conflicted and want to rank Whisenhunt high, though I worry he’ll get banged up without a better supporting cast and poor control.
Trevor McDonald (SFG, RHP)
He’s a groundball-focused arm who relies on his 92/93 mph sinker to find the zone and pairs it with a solid slider and developing changeup. I kinda like him as a decent option for the Giants when they need a start here and there, possibly more than Black if McDonald can nail down the changeup and locate the slider well to become a strong putaway offering. Sadly, he’s not a guy to grab when he gets his shot in all likehood, save for deep 15-teamers.
Carson Seymour (SFG, RHP)
Another sinker/slider guy, Seymour’s breaker is a phenomenal offering and could become more of a focus over time as he lacks strong weapons in his grounder-seeking sinker and mediocre changeup. If he’s able to turn his sinker into a called strike machine, he could turn into a Brady Singer type. Not the greatest mountain to climb, but there could be value to be had as a rare streamer.
Carson Ragsdale (SFG, RHP)
He’s a tall fella with a big overhand hook and not much else. The heater comes in over-the-top at 93 mph with solid extension and not a ton of iVB without the best command given his long arm circle. The curve can be sporadic as well and while a cutter has shown itself a touch with a solid PLV mark, I wonder if it’ll actually form akin to Tyler Glasnow’s much needed slider. Don’t get it backward, though – Glasnow’s heater and hook are a proper step up on Ragsdale’s. If the control appears and the curve incessantly demands respect, this can work, but the chances are slim.
Joe Whitman (SFG, LHP)
We’re unlikely to see Whitman this year after pitching in A+ ball last year at 23-years-old. His fastball performs better than the low-to-mid 90s velocity would suggest and it’s hard not to like his two-plane breaker, but he needs more to become a prospect worth your attention. Hopefully it’s the changeup, a pitch Whitman has tested, yet failed to find routine feel for. He could shoot up the ranks if the slowball arrives, but if it doesn’t, Whitman will struggle to soar.
Jack Choate (SFG, LHP)
He sits 88 mph with a great changeup and mid-70s breaker that has worked but may not get away with the same success against MLB hitters. I can’t get behind such a low velocity guy, even with 26%+ strikeout rates in Single-A and Double-A. Sorry, Jack.