To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Zach Eflin (BAL, RHP)
Eflin is safe. I think. Yeah, he’s safe. Eflin isn’t the man from 2023 and he’s going through the whole “Wait, my body isn’t what it was ten years ago” moment that will likely limit his total volume for the year, but the Orioles will get you Wins and he’ll continue to battle as he delicately manipulates all of his abilities to get outs. He’s your prototypical veteran who relies more on arsenal mixed with command and guile to get his outs, while we collectively hope his cutter can return to its 2023 peaks against RHB instead of the near 50% ICR of last year.
Expect Eflin to manipulate his sinker well, spin legit curveballs to both LHB and RHB, sit high with cutters, and get a little more efficient in two-strike counts against RHB because hot DANG all of his pitches completely failed on him last year in two-strike counts to RHB. Sure, he won’t be a 26% strikeout guy, but expect 22% or so with some regression.
Quick Take: Ratios should be good enough to keep Eflin on your 12-teamers all year, especially with a sizeable Win total. The strikeouts should be a touch better with his putaway rates normalizing, however he’s highly unlikely to replicate the magic of 2023. Consider Eflin as a stabilizer if you’ve taken plenty of risk or few pitchers with high Win potential.
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL, RHP)
This year should be the Year of the Cutter. The bridge pitch is so dang good for extension-focused pitchers with high velocity, creating a difficult time for batters to discern if the pitch will be a straight four-seamer or veer off as a cutter. I think Grayson can be a Top 5 starter if he finds a cutter this year and it’s as simple as that.
His four-seamer has what you want, yet batters have hit it constantly. Its 96/97 mph velocity with 7.2 extension (!) is fantastic and even comes with a relatively flat attack angle that should help it get whiffs upstairs, and despite its lack of vert, Grayson’s heater gets more horizontal break than expected, which, at the very least, should limit hard contact.
And it does. And doesn’t. To both. What. Well, against LHB, the four-seamer was fantastic with a 17% SwStr rate, while RHB saw a sub 40% ICR. However, he doesn’t lean into the horizontal movement and stays away to RHB inside of jamming them inside. Meanwhile, the four-seamer does stay away to LHB, which aids in its whiffs…but we need the secondaries to get involved.
Grayson’s changeup is the most aggressive of the lot, but he doesn’t command it well. Far too many float into the middle of the zone and even with the high swinging strike rates and 32% ICR vs. LHB, he allowed 4 HR off the pitch and more damage than it should. The curveball gets called strikes to LHB, though it also gets left over the plate, and I think you get why Grayson needs a cutter. He should be leaning into the extension ala Wheeler, using fastballs with varying movement as the core of his approach, not reliant on secondaries.
There is a slider in the mix as well, which gets RHB out of their shoes with a 21% SwStr rate last year…and 43% ICR. Once again, Rodriguez nails it or gives batters an opportunity to punish.
We’re entering Grayson’s third year in the majors. His sophomore season was a clear step forward, but I wonder if there is another leap to take without a shift in approach or addition of a cutter. H*ck, even a sinker to RHB (have I mentioned Zack Wheeler?) would do wonders. Ranking arms like Grayson is awfully difficult as I’m wish-casting improvement without evidence it will come to fruition. He is just 25-years-old and we’ve seen many pitchers take the leap at his age. Is this the one? Or we will have to endure another Cherry Bomb season?
Quick Take: The ceiling is high for Grayson if he can improve his fastball approach, nail down the command of his secondaries, or add a sinker/cutter to embrace his extension. However, there’s no indication any of this will happen, making for a Cherry Bomb season as the floor – a beneficial one, but not warranting of your SP #2 pick.
Charlie Morton (BAL, RHP)
Having both Morton and Eflin reminds me of Spider-ManPointing.jpeg, with Morton relying on a curveball foundation and hoping the cutter and fastballs help enough along the way. I wish the four-seamer was a better offering, but it really struggles against LHB, with the changeup and cutter not doing nearly enough to get him to the finish line as they have in the past.
I wish I were more optimistic that Morton could produce throughout the year – I think we all expected him to be retired by now, to be honest – and I’d reserve him only for deep leagues where Wins are scarce. 12-Teamers can see Morton as a streaming option and not much else with so many quality arms to chase instead. But hey, maybe the curveball is still great and he figures out how to get his change and/or cutter back on track to allow the four-seamer to hide in the shadows against LHB. Yes, you can only expect me TWENTY percent of the time! Wow, so deadly. Really? Nah, probably not. Sorry fella.
Quick Take: Morton will still have some strikeouts up his sleeve with a large runway on the Orioles, but the ratios are sure to hurt across many starts. Consider him in AL-Only leagues and reserved as a rare streamer in your standard formats.
Dean Kremer (BAL, RHP)
Kremer is a guy you see randomly flex a ten strikeout game and sit up in your chair wondering where that came from. Sometimes it’s the high vert four-seamer landing upstairs and peaking in putaway rate, sometimes the cutter eclipses the elusive 60% strike rate, and other times it’s a splitter cooking against LHB. The problem? You have no idea when it’ll happen, with Kremer being a prototypical Werewolf. Once a month, he’s a beast. I’m not expecting the command to click into place, nor any of his cutter or splitter to become 65% strike pitches overnight, and I’d very much rather ignore Kremer entirely.
But hey, he’ll get opportunities with the Orioles without the worst strikeout rate, which grants value for deeper leagues. Have fun over there, I’ll be busy using his roster spot to find sustainable starters in 12-teamers.
Quick Take: Kremer’s cutter, four-seamer, and splitter have the potential to go off on a given night, but the arsenal as a whole is unrefined and inconsistent. With regular starts for the Orioles, Kremer has value for Wins and total strikeouts for the year, but the ratio dent is too much to bear in 12-teamers without enough reward.
On The Fringe
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL, RHP)
You probably don’t know much at all about the 35-year-old Sugano. I sure didn’t until I read this from Ben Clemens at FanGraphs and it’s awesome. Sugano is outlined as a control freak who spins the ball well and tries to sneak fastballs over the plate enough without getting punished. That sounds like a Toby. It sure does! And a perfect fit for the Orioles who don’t need the greatest ZOMG pitcher out there, they need guys who will keep them in ball games and allows their above-average offense to do the rest. I’m expecting Sugano to be the #5 out of camp unless he looks terrible and/or one of Povich/Suarez are just that good.
Sugano is a great 15-team sleeper for Wins and decent ratios, especially in the WHIP department as he’d need over a 9.0 hit-per-nine to actually hurt your WHIP with his absurd control (sub 3% walk rate?!), though your 12-teamers will be struggling from a strikeout rate staring out a rainy window at a dancing a man dressed in a 20% costume. Where do they sell those? I dunno, maybe at the same discount store you’re getting Sugano? Ayyyy. Consider Sugano as an “alright, I need something” arm during the year and give him a start or two before actually considering him for a stream in standard leagues.
Quick Take: Expect a low WHIP and a decent number of Wins without strikeouts and a possibly high ERA if his fastballs get blasted over the wall. He’s a 15-team sleeper but reserved as a Toby at best in 12-teamers and likely a streaming option here and there throughout the year.
Cade Povich (BAL, LHP)
Povich had his moments in 2024 and even ended the season with a great run via 2.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with 32 Ks in 27.2 IP in five games (albeit blessed by a 10 K game against the CrySox), but I imagine he’s missing the rotation to begin the season. I wish the curveball were better to RHB and he jammed LHB inside with his sinker, while I wish the four-seamer’s 25% ICR to RHB was actually sustainable but we should expect regression with its middling movement at 92/93 mph.
There’s not a whole lot to latch onto, sadly. The sweeper can work against LHB at least and maybe that hook or changeup takes a step forward to silence RHB, but until then, I’d hold off on Povich unless he gets a good matchup with an 80+ pitch start under his belt. There are better fliers to chase.
Quick Take: Povich is a Toby at best who could benefit from volume on a winning team but needs to do more with his arsenal to become a reliable fantasy starter. Return in-season to see if he’s improved his arsenal before taking a chance in your leagues.
Albert Suárez (BAL, RHP)
I remember when Suárez appeared out of nowhere during spring last year, firing 96 mph heaters upstairs with ease and returning all the whiffs. It was fun. And then he got his shot and actually produced a bit…? Thing is, that heater is only effective against LHB (14-15% SwStr!) while RHB were able to tee off the heater, resulting in the cutter having far more success. I wish the cutter was able to dominate both LHB and RHB, but Suárez is forced to go with an 11% SwStr rate changeup against LHB and I’m not sure it’s enough for me to chase. Sure, the putaway rates last year were far lower than expected, which could help him comfortably eclipse 20% strikeouts this year, but I want more.
I don’t expect Suárez in the rotation to start the year (that’s Sugano’s job) but if there’s an opening, I’m favoring him over Povich, leading to a possible depth add in AL-Only leagues. There are so many more options in 12-teamers and even 15-teamers are likely better off with other fliers than Suárez who is unlikely to have a new trick up his sleeve.
Quick Take: The strikeout may come up a bit if he gets another routine shot in the rotation, but even then, I don’t trust the three-pitch mix enough to trust him regularly. There’s some deep AL-Only appeal if he has a job, while 12-teamers can mostly ignore him.
Names To Know
Kyle Bradish (BAL, RHP)
Bradish got TJS in June of last year and he can be treated as an IL stash at the end of your draft if you like. Just have the discipline to drop the fella if you need that spot in April or May as we may not see Bradish at all this year.
But if we do? Expect an SP #3 or so, armed with one of the best sliders in baseball. I’m excited for Bradish in 2026 assuming his surgery went well and we’ll be chatting about Bradish plenty this summer as we monitor his progress. Strider, Eury, Bieber, Javier, and Bradish are the four major IL stashes of the summer and Bradish is a bit less appealing given fastballs are generally the pitch that comes back first. Still worth the gamble if you have the spot, though.
Quick Take: Bradish is recovering from TJS and shouldn’t be expected to return earlier than August, while he could easily miss the entire season. Don’t hold on tightly and drop him if the spot is needed.
Tyler Wells (BAL, RHP)
Wells also endured elbow surgery last year, but it was the internal brace surgery, that places his timeline to roughly June/July this summer. Sadly, the skills are not elite and the Orioles are sure to play this one safe and slow instead of throwing him back into the fire quickly. I’m not interested here until I see something real from Wells leading up to his return…which may be in the pen and not the rotation.
Trevor Rogers (BAL, LHP)
Apparently, Rogers has been working with Driveline throughout the offseason in hopes to get his velocity back up, but suffered a, ahem, right knee subluxation, which you can translate as a knee problem that will delay him in camp. There isn’t a set timeline now and Rogers is highly likely to be on the IL as the season begins. You can stash him if you like, just drop him if the minor league rehab starts aren’t showing his velocity back up to 94/95 mph, nor a legit changeup and slider. I’m not expecting this to work out.
Roansy Contreras (BAL, RHP)
He’s been all over the place since March last year. Pirates, Angels, Orioles, and now Yankees, traveling at 25-years-old like LeBron’s crab-dribble days. Contreras has a good slider and sadly nothing else to back it up. This isn’t the 96-mph heater with legit iVB anymore but a deadzone 94/95 mph flubber of a pitch and I can’t help but feel for the guy. I wonder if the Yankees have something up their sleeve to fix him…maybe jamming that two-seamer (it doesn’t sink!) inside to RHB more often? Then what about LHB? I DON’T KNOW.
UPDATE 2/7/25: He’s back with the Orioles.
Levi Stoudt (BAL, RHP)
The man known as Jeans and a Guinness has been given a non-roster invite by the Orioles after making a brief appearance in the majors with the Reds in 2023. This isn’t going to go well, is it. Probably not. Maybe that slider is everything now? Probably not. Hey, that’s my line.
Thaddeus Ward (BAL, RHP)
Another year of wondering if Thaddeus can make it as a starter for a club. Really? Okay, not wondering, just hoping for his own sake with a non-roster invitation to the spring. It’s just so a great name, you know?
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Chayce McDermott (BAL, RHP)
Chayce is already delayed by a lat/teres injury that will push him back from pitching at least two weeks, and I doubt we’ll see Chayce any time before May (at the earliest). That said, I love his seven feet of extension merged with plus iVB and flat HAVAA that outlines a four-seamer that could explode at the top of the zone. I dug the shape of his slider as well during his sole game in Miami last year, though I wonder if he’s equipped with a sturdy #3 pitch – the changeup in the debut was flying way arm-side, although that may have been a product of debut-nerves, or it simply may not be a consistent offering. Monitor him aplenty with the Orioles desperately needing depth in their rotation and I like his ceiling much more than Povich’s with his stellar heater shape, even at 94 mph.
Trace Bright (BAL, RHP)
He doesn’t look all too impressive without massive velocity and cut action on his heater, though there are reports of a big curveball and a variety of pitches to turn to. He’s had walk issues throughout the minors and I’m not interested in 12-teamers this year unless something pops out when he gets promoted to Triple-A.
Patrick Reilly (BAL, RHP)
His focus is a four-seamer upstairs around the mid-90s with plenty of vert, though his over-the-top arm angle may nullify some of it. He’s tossed only a few games in Double-A and likely doesn’t make an appearance in 2025, though I’m curious what data we’ll get when he gets the call to Triple-A. I’m not expecting much but there may be a streaming play here.
Brandon Young (BAL, RHP)
He tossed nearly 90 frames in Triple-A last season at a 3.44 ERA, which may be enough for the Orioles to give him a chance at some point this year. Nothing sticks out as a major plus offering to make you interested in fantasy, sadly, but he does feature his 17″ iVB four-seamer upstairs frequently at 92/93 mph and finds the zone often with his changeup and cutter underneath. There’s also a slider and curve in the mix making him a kitchen-sink arm with possible whiff potential in the high heater and changeup down. Not quite enough for my taste, but I’ll scrutinize him more when he gets a shot.