To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
Expected Starters
Martín Pérez (CHW, LHP)
The White Sox need volume to get through the season and it’s no surprise they called upon Pérez for the task. The veteran southpaw’s skill set speaks to volume with a variety of offerings to feature against all hitters, hoping to induce weak contact and generate quick outs. His sinker does its part against LHB with a near 40% O-Swing as it sits inside constantly, while featuring a decent cutter away to keep batters guessing.
It’s decent enough against LHB, though Pérez has to be in in a perfect groove to handle RHB with ease. His changeup is effective but not overwhelming like many of his lefty peers, forcing his sinker and cutter to do heavy lifting inside the zone as they pray for batters to let them pass for called strikes.
I see Pérez as an arm who can be a serviceable streamer (for QS moreso than Wins, of course) or even turn into a Vargas Rule at times when he’s locating his sinkers and changeups armside and landing cutters away to LHB with ease – h*ck, when he’s cooking, the curve becomes a trusted mix-up pitch as well – though he’s best to be avoided until you’re searching for a streaming option.
Quick Take: Pérez has some value in QS leagues but only when he’s able to string multiple starts of precision across his wide arsenal. He’s a desperate play for volume in deeper leagues and should be rarely touched in 12-teamers.
Jonathan Cannon (CHW, RHP)
If you watched Cannon pitch in 2024, you would have seen him look like a modern Maddux for an inning or two, then appear in the next frame as that random Quad-A pitcher whose name eludes you. Oh wait. His name is Jonathan Cannon. He’s a sinkerballer who is able to dot the outside corner to RHB when he’s in a groove, which can work as a called strike offering, but without a dastardly secondary to follow up, it doesn’t end at-bats as often as he needs it to. It’s part of the reason why I believe he should be jamming the pitch more often to RHB, which would also open up the outside part of the plate better for his cutter and sweeper.
Per usual, this sinkerballer has complications against LHB. There is promise in his changeup, though its sub 15% SwStr rate last season outlines its lack of electricity. His cutter attempts to be the foundation, but Cannon fails to locate it effectively and it exposes his lack of reinforcements against LHB.
I’m curious if Cannon will take advantage of his secure rotation spot in the year ahead. Will he refine his secondaries or approach? Can he boost his velocity from 93 mph and flirt with consistent 95 mph sinkers? There’s potential for a QS darling here, but there’s work to be done.
Quick Take: The sinker is appropriately named with excellent drop, but there isn’t much else to support it. If Cannon can take steps forward with his secondaries, he could find himself completing the sixth inning often, showcasing value even when his team stays off the board.
Davis Martin (CHW, RHP)
If only Martin had a decent four-seamer in the mix. The slider and cutter are precise against RHB to a degree that I want to tell everyone and ensure he gets his deserving accolades for his stellar command of the pair. Sadly, I worry the four-seamer will struggle against RHB in the season ahead, even if he’s featuring 40%+ sliders and roughly 25% heaters.
His famous “kick-change” has promise, though it needs to take a step forward if Davis is to escape his heat(er) demons. The slowball failed to get down enough against LHB, leading to few whiffs and a whole lot of punishment, but it’s the clearest area of growth that can lead to a sizeable increase in results.
A slider/cutter/change mix could be in the cards with an occasional heater or curve (maybe a sinker…?) and with a near 5.50 PLV slider and a changeup that could boast the same mark, Martin could be the latest “bad heater, great secondaries” arm outside the Cleveland system. But why does it have to be such a bad fastball…
Quick Take: Martin flashes talent with his slider and cutter command + a legit change that could morph into a true weapon. With a terrible fastball and not quite enough whiffability, it may take some time before he can take the leap. That ceiling isn’t as high as many others, unfortunately, making Martin a questionable flier and most likely a streaming option across all formats.
Sean Burke (CHW, RHP)
I’ll likely be the highest on Burke entering this year and I don’t think you should draft him. But there is promise and I think you’ll see it too. The four-seamer has legit potential with the golden seven feet of extension at 95+ mph (we saw him hit 98!), combined with elite 17-18″ of iVB that he takes advantage of with a consistent approach up in the zone. We’re talking 62% hiLoC in his few starts last year, not the sub-50 % mark of many contemporaries with fastballs made to elevate.
This four-seamer paired with his good-not-great slider did wonders against RHB in his (very) brief stint in 2024, prompting 20%+ SwStr rates on both pitches and hilarious putaway rates that inflated his 28%+ strikeout rate. That’s not gonna stick even if he fixes the typical problem: LHB. His changeup was a whole lot of meh while the slider and curve were not elegant solutions to the classic weakness, and Burke can’t soar as a sleeper breakout pick in 2025 unless there’s a clear solution displayed in the spring.
And yes, the White Sox don’t win games, nor does Burke have a history of longevity made for large volume in the first place. I’m still excited at his stellar four-seamer and ability to throw slider strikes, hoping more blossoms across routine starts in Chicago.
Bryse Wilson (CHW, RHP)
Sure, it makes sense for the White Sox to add Bryse after he returned to make more starts with the Brewers last season (often with an opener, too). But he’s not a great SP. He throws strikes. The White Sox want pitchers who throw strikes and have a chance to go at least five without blowing up the jumbotron. Bryse does this with a cutter and a whole lot of nothing else. It’s not exciting and while it works decently against RHB with sinkers mixed in, everything is positively atrocious against LHB. There’s little reason to expect more is coming, though he is only 27-years-old and who knows, maybe he unlocks more velocity or a proper slider over the winter.
At any rate, there’s no reason to chase this now. If he does something new, I’ll let you know in the SP Roundup as everyone else ignores him based on it being the wrong Bryse. And just because it’s new, doesn’t mean it’ll be good.
Quick Take: Another man with two first names who can’t be trusted. His cutter has its moments but there is nothing else to support a case for Wilson as a reliable fantasy pitcher in 2025.
On The Fringe
Drew Thorpe (CHW, RHP)
The changeup is fantastic. Thing is, that’s all. The four-seamer has some vert and Thorpe features it upstairs to amplify the deception of his changeup, but the pitch gets crushed and sadly Thorpe doesn’t have a feel for spin. His slider held a poor 51% strike rate in 2024 and doesn’t look to be an excellent offering, and the cutter has some potential against LHB, but still needs Thorpe to throw the low 90s heater to set it up – a pitch that barely eclipsed a 50% strike rate against LHB last year.
If Thorpe can find another comfortable weapon in his arsenal or become a master with the four-seamer/cutter, then I can see this working out. Sadly, it’s just a changeup at the moment on a poor team and that’s not a recipe for fantasy relevance.
Nick Nastrini (CHW, RHP)
Nastrini’s four-seamer had 1st percentile PLV with the worst strike rate in the league…but 94th percentile iVB and 86th percentile HAVAA. What does all that mean?! Nastrini’s fastball has great shape at 93/94 mph, but he can’t command the dang thing in the slightest. I personally believe he has the yips as his slider featured strikes at a solid 65% clip and I’ll continue to carry a sliver of hope that Nastrini can get over his mental hump with heaters and take advantage of the pitch’s shape properly to turn into a solid fastball/slider arm. That said, it’s not an elite combo and his changeup + curve both suffered from inconsistency as well, making Nastrini lack the ceiling to chase in nearly all formats. Sigh.
Names To Know
Jared Shuster (CHW, LHP)
Ayyyy, remember Shuster? You know, one of the two left-handers from Atlanta I was suddenly excited about in 2023 after throwing legit sliders inside to RHB and spotting fastballs on the edge? Well, he’s on the ChiSox now and will likely get a few starts here and there as they figure out how to get through another season without setting another Loss record. The four-seamer is all kinds of meh, the slider is saved for LHB and is decent at what it does, but the changeup? The pitch that was featured over 40% of the time to RHB last year? That thing needs to get its act together. Shuster’s slowball held a 51% strike rate across that heavy RHB usage, which is as detrimental of a pitch as I’ve ever seen. If that pitch makes giant strides, Shuster will have another shot at a starting gig, but even then, he’ll still just be a two-pitch guy per handedness with half his offerings featuring a hittable four-seamer on a losing squad. No thanks.
Jesse Scholtens (CHW, RHP)
Jesse had Tommy John surgery on 3/1/2024, making his 2025 appearance delayed until mid-season at the earliest, though I’m not sure anyone is holding their breath. Scholtens lacks an explosive set of breaking balls, while his four-seamer failed to eclipse an 8% SwStr rate to either LHB or RHB. But hey! At least he has 7 feet of extension at 92/93 mph, right? But his changeup! Uhhh, yes, it does look pretty in the GIF on his player page! That was one of his two whiffs earned on the pitch in 2023. Oh. But yes! If only he could execute that offering all the time.
Prelander Berroa (CHW, RHP)
You may recall my idolization of Berroa last season in hopes he would force the White Sox to let him convert to a starter and enter the rotation. After time on the IL and a season in the pen, there’s no indication that the White Sox are stretching Berroa out to be a starter, and understandably so. His four-seamer has fun metrics like 97/98 mph velocity, 16+ iVB, and 1.3 HAVAA (poor extension, but the velo and shape make up for it!), which suggests it can dominate…if he can locate the dang thing. Its 55% strike rate was felt by every fan watching his at-bats, groaning as the ball left his hand and lasered toward a skittering glove far off the plate. It’s why Berroa featured 57% sliders last season – 67% strike rate! – and would have to be corrected if he were to become a start. But hot dang, the one-two punch has legit potential if the strikes are found on the heater and you should at least be aware of the upside despite the minuscule chance of it all coming together.
Relevant Prospects
Noah Schultz (CHW, LHP)
If you don’t know Schultz, I’m glad you’re here. I’m glad you’re here if you already knew him, too, I’M JUST HAPPY TO HELP. Schultz has been compared to Randy Johnson as he hurls mid-to-upper 90s heaters from the left side, paired with an elite breaker that looks awfully like a mix of Randy’s and Sale’s signature breakers. There’s a developing sinker and changeup in the mix as well, and Schultz could appear in camp ready to dominate and demand a starting gig. After all, he returned an elite 1.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with just 7% walks in 16 Double-A starts while flirting with a 30% strikeout rate (11-12% SwStr rate is a little lower than expected, though that may be due to him working on his arsenal), and he hasn’t hit his potential quite yet. He’s the perfect last pick to wait-and-see if he gets the opportunity from the spring. If not, you can drop and move on before the season even starts.
Hagen Smith (CHW, LHP)
Drafted fifth overall in 2024, it’s highly unlikely we see Smith in 2025. But what if we do…? FINE. His three starts in A+ ball can’t be relied upon, so just watch the linked video of his seventeen strikeouts against Oregon State and you’ll get it. He throws mid-90s and flirts with 100 mph as a southpaw, backing it up with a devastating breaking ball. It’s legit y’all. There’s apparently a low-90s cutter that forms from that breaker at times, too, while he doesn’t haven’t a reliable changeup. He doesn’t. It’s a…splitter. GASP. I wouldn’t be shocked if that turns into a traditional change over time, and if he does, hooo boy do we have a fun one on our hands. Even without it, the two (or three?) pitch mix is stupid good and is sure to be fantasy relevant when he gets the inevitable call. But he had TJS in high school! No one is ever good after the second one. MLB organizations don’t seem to care about that, I get the sense that we shouldn’t, too.
Wikelman Gonzalez (CHW, RHP)
Gonzalez has good velocity on his heater that appears to come with a flat angle and solid extension, though his command of it is the biggest question. The White Sox could throw him into the fire in 2025 and hope the command comes along that allows him to work in a big curve and mid-80s slider, though it may be in a relief role after recording a near 13% walk rate in 83.2 Double-A innings last year. If the control is there, he could make for a fun pick-up, though it’s tough to believe he’ll eradicate his PEAS label quickly.
Shane Smith (CHW, LHP)
He was a Rule 5 draft pick and may be slotted for the pen after five appearances in Triple-A all in relief, though he tossed sixteen starts for the Brewers Double-A team and may be considered in the rotation for the White Sox. His 93/94 mph heater features proper cut action, which is paired with a 90/91 mph cutter, and big, loopy 79/80 mph curveball that has plus potential with elite break. If Shane can locate his fastball and cutter effectively, his 6.8 feet of extension can help mask the pitches well enough to induce a ton of weak contact and provide the outs White Sox management is looking for. Think of this as a potentially worse version of Rasmussen.
Jairo Iriarte (CHW, RHP)
He pitched in relief for a handful of games last year and I was vastly disappointed. Instead of mid-to-upper 90s, we got 94 mph. Yes, solid extension and HAVAA, but not enough to get me amped for a four-seamer that specializes in horizontal movement over vertical from the right side. That ignores his ghastly command across the board, including a slider and slowball, which happens often for the first few games of an MLB career, but this was bad. I can understand Iriarte as a legit option if he can get the velocity back and pair it with a precise arsenal, but he has too many steps to take before getting there.
Jake Eder (CHW, LHP)
He’s a southpaw with a pedestrian four-seamer, a decent cutter to help against LHB, and a changeup that could be the money pitch against RHB. I’m not interested here unless I get evidence of an elite changeup to mask the awfully hittable heater, and even then, his lack of fantastic breaker will make him a Toby at best on a poor team.
Ky Bush (CHW, LHP)
I can see a starter for the Pirates here. Why not the White Sox? I see that, too, but it’s such a chaotic mess here that I needed a different frame of reference. Bush’s four-seamer is the biggest weakness at 91/92 mph without enough extension nor precision to be “good enough”, though there is a developing changeup and a strong propensity to land back-foot sliders against RHB. It can be enough when he has proper feel of his arsenal, but even then it’s a lot of reliance on Koufax and not a regular fantasy option. We need clearer dominance to be trusted in fantasy leagues.
Update: Ky Bush is undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
Mason Adams (CHW, RHP)
He’s armed with a legit slider in the mid-80s that he can dot down-and-away from RHB, but the right-hander doesn’t have an overpowering heater to match it. The 91 mph sinker is his favorite heater (blegh) and the changeup can be decent against LHB, but doesn’t blow me away. It’s possible the 80 mph curve and legit slider are enough to get by at times, and with five Triple-A starts in 2024, the White Sox may look to him for some frames early. Expect a lot of damage against those fastballs.
Grant Taylor (CHW, RHP)
With just 19 innings of professional ball, there’s no reason to expect Grant to make it to the bigs this year, let alone in 2026. He sits mid 90s with a cutter around 90 mph and pairs it with two breakers on top of a changeup he’s working to refine. It’s a potentially deep arsenal with good-to-great stuff across the board, but we haven’t seen a whole lot of it yet. I’m curious how his 2025 will play out and if his four-seamer is a proper foundation for the rest of his weapons.
