To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Pablo López (MIN, RHP)
As much as I adore PabLó, I have to recognize that he allows a ton of hits. The reason is simple: batters swing at his four-seamer and he doesn’t have a secondary to make them stop. I would love López to embrace the sinker a touch more against RHB and ignore the .400+ BABIP it induced last season, possibly evening out its usage with his four-seamer to go the Wheeler route – you may not know, but López has elite 7.2 extension at 95+ mph. He already jams the sinker inside effectively, but turns to it roughly 15% of the time and that clip can increase.
The problem early in the season was his sweeper feel, which returned in June during his 14-strikeout game and never left him after. RHB should be dealt with effectively (like Wheeler!) with two heaters and a sweeper, plus the occasional changeup as well. Which brings us to the same problem as Wheeler: those pesky left-handed batters.
I wish PabLó still had the changeup of old. He’ll still say “The changeup is always there,” though it wasn’t quite as devastating as it used to be, with a five-tick drop in O-Swing and a fall to a 61% strike rate against LHB. That puts more pressure on the four-seamer and curveball, the latter of which held a 52% ICR last year against LHB. Yikes.
There’s a world where López embraces the sinker and finds the old changeup with a touch better four-seamer command and soars to a 1.05 WHIP with sub-3.00 ERA and 27% strikeout rate. I’m a little skeptical that it’ll all wrap up nicely without bouts of turmoil, though I see a productive season with a floor better than the 4.08 ERA and 1.19 WHIP of 2024. You can rely on PabLó to help your teams for six months.
Quick Take: Without an overwhelming pitch to point to, López struggles to limit hits across his career, raising his WHIP away from elite SP levels. There’s room for growth with a larger embrace of fastball-mix to exploit his elite extension, while we hope for the changeup to rebound after a tough year. He’s safer than the 4.08 ERA suggests and should be trusted as a SP #2 for the year.
Joe Ryan (MIN, RHP)
Joe throws a whole lot of strikes and it sets him up for a monster season…if he can find one more definitive offering inside his arsenal. Ryan’s four-seamer has the flattest attack angle in baseball, which has him attack the top of the zone constantly, though its low iVB makes this a large risk/reward. When batters are able to get the timing just right, they can launch the pitch over the fence, leading to an elevated HR/9 for Ryan across the last few years. That mark did come down last year with Ryan showcasing another gain in velocity up to 94 mph and four extra inches of extension to 6.8 feet (i.e. meh extension to above-average extension. DOPE.), which lowered the longball count from 19 to eight off the four-seamer. Progress.
I should note that Ryan’s 2024 season concluded early after suffering a Grade 2 Teres Major strain, though it’s not an injury that should linger into the season. That shouldn’t be your concern entering the season – that should come from his secondaries. Ryan has little fear throwing heaters upstairs at a 71% strike rate – the catalyst for his minuscule walk rate – and it calls for a reliable secondary to prevent batters from hunting heaters upstairs with every pitch. There is a sinker Ryan began incorporating more to RHB in early June that I adore and hope to see again in 2025, but there needs to be more.
The attack against RHB features a sweeper 20% of the time but I’m not sure it’s the correct call. Ryan’s four-seamer holds a 46% ICR against RHB and just a 33% clip against LHB, and I believe this sweeper is the culprit. Ryan’s arm-angle gets lower when featuring the pitch, allowing batters to key in on the sweeper and confidently attack four-seamers with the higher arm slot. Maybe it’s worth it given the near 20% SwStr rate and decent 35% ICR at 20% usage, though I have to believe a tighter slider would do better at the same arm slot…
…which Ryan has? Kinda. He featured a slider against RHB just 8% of the time last year to middling results. It earned strikes but had very little drop and looked like a cement mixer breaker often, leading to a 55% ICR and a .508 xWOBA against (I’m usually pounding the table to stop using result stats for individual pitches, but hot dang, I couldn’t ignore that). Ryan tried to sneak it in for an early called strike (24% called strikes!) against both LHB and RHB, and it’s not the answer we’re looking for. Something a little more…aggressive? Dangerous? Deadly.
Speaking of LHB, the splitter is the go-to #2 pitch, and if you know me at all, I dislike splitters as a #2 option. They are the least consistent pitch in baseball, creating volatility start-to-start. Ryan’s splitter was more effective than his contemporaries at earning strikes, while it acted as a better nullifer for his four-seamer to LHB than his sweeper to RHB. Still, it’s not an elite companion for the fastball and I’m still holding my breath for Ryan to find that pitch to create a one-two punch.
If you’re so down on Ryan, why is he ranked so high? Because despite all of this, he’s excellent at hit suppression due to his large flyball rate merged with a near 80th-percentile SwStr rate. Ryan’s 0.99 WHIP isn’t a total fluke with 2023’s 1.17 mark due to an inflated 8.6 hit-per-nine that has fallen to a repeatable 7.3 H/9. Combined with his elite walk rate, Ryan is sure to have a sparkling WHIP once again. If he makes any adjustment with his pitch mix to improve his #2 offerings to both LHB and RHB, Ryan could turn into a Top-5 arm overnight. The floor is there with the four-seamer (and maybe even more growth given its gains each year?) making Ryan a great target for production and legit upside.
Quick Take: Ignore the injury from 2024 and focus on Ryan’s ability to limit walks while punching batters out over 25% of the time due to his elite four-seamer that he spots upstairs. Growth in his secondaries is the final step toward an ERA consistently below 3.50 moving forward with a WHIP and strikeout floor that makes him far less risky than other ceiling starters.
Bailey Ober (MIN, RHP)
We could play the game of “If you take away his first start…” or “If you remove his two starts that combined for 17 ER…” but I don’t think we need to do either one. Blowups will happen to every starter, Ober was unfortunate to have sizeable ones of 8 ER and 9 ER when it happened. It’s possible throwing 90-92 mph heaters makes Ober far more susceptible to the longball than others, leading to a 1.40 HR/9 across the last two years, though home run rate is the least sticky stat year-to-year and with an improving arsenal (and fastball adjustments), I imagine that number can come down closer to 1.00 for the year. That’ll make his ERA in the low-to-mid 3s with a stellar WHIP and strikeout rate and a sizable number of Wins as a workhorse for the Twins. That sounds great, but you haven’t convinced me as to why. Oh duh, my favorite part when I get annoyingly verbose, HOW COULD I FORGET?!
Ober’s foundation is peppering that “slow” fastball upstairs, exploiting his elite 7.2 feet of extension to attack high and set up his absurd changeup down. It was the bread-and-butter of 2023, and it continued in 2024…to a degree. His four-seamer is still 84th percentile in hiLoc%, but its 62% clip fell over seventeen points from 2023 when it featured a near 80% hiLoc. It’s why we called him Oberizzi, after all.
It explains the fastball’s seven tick increase in ICR rate, the 87-point jump in wOBA, and decline in SwStr rate from 15% to a pedestrian 11% mark. However, Ober had more to offer this time around, allowing him to reduce its usage in favor of a new cutter at 86 mph (that’s kinda fast for a 91 mph heater, alright?) and I dig it.
The cutter is still a work in progress after shelving the slider, which was fantastic against LHB but wasn’t nearly as effective against RHB. Yet. This is the pitch Ober should be using to keep batters off the four-seamer, using his extension and a similar looking pitch at close velocity to confound batters inside the zone. He jammed LHB consistently with it at a 40% O-Swing and fantastic 78% inside location and if he gets a stronger feel with this four-seamer upstairs, I think he’ll have more success with the pitch against RHB in the year to come. It certainly finds strikes more than a typical new pitch, it just needs its leader to play its role.
These tweaks are all made possible by his fantastic changeup. LHB, RHB, it doesn’t matter with a dumb 73% strike rate and 28% SwStr rate to RHB last year, a pair of stats that make you think he barely used it. Nope. 24% usage. Yes, throw it. All the time please, thank you. He did get a little more on the side of the ball against LHB (typically as the target is generally more arm-side, leading to Ober getting slightly less on top of his changeup) and it led to more wastes and fewer chases down, but as PabLó likes to say, “The changeup is always there.”
I see a pitcher with a long leash in Minnesota with the potential to improve on two already impressive seasons (A 1.00 WHIP with a 27% strikeout rate across 180 innings in ’24 is impressive y’all, ignore the 3.98 ERA!). Given his ability to spot high heaters in the past, I’m willing to bet on Ober making the adjustment to get the hiLoc% up again, while the cutter could improve into a more stable offering across the board. He’s a high volume arm with strikeouts and good ratios. Why wouldn’t you want that?
Quick Take: Ober’s four-seamer dropped into the zone more often last year, which opened the door for his cutter to allow seven HRs and made for a few blowup games. His changeup is elite, the command is there and with a clear path to an improved ERA, Ober is the perfect #2 starter for your fantasy teams.
On The Fringe
David Festa (MIN, RHP)
Festa feels super close to making it all work. He comes with 94/95 mph velocity with seven feet of extension and while his iVB looks great at 17″, it’s actually normal for his arm angle. However, the heater gets exceptional cut action, which he doesn’t take advantage of currently. In 2024, it seemed as though Festa thought “high vert = high location”, but in fact, he should be jamming that thing inside to LHB on the regular. Against RHB, sure, keep that upstairs, just pair it with a sinker inside (seven feet of extension, remember!) and you’ve got yourself a dang good foundation.
The secondaries have small tweaks to make but show promise, too. The changeup obliterated LHB for a 21% SwStr rate and 63% Strike rate at a monster 39% usage, but the slider was unreliable to RHB. We want to see a tight down-and-away epicenter for the pitch and we saw a scattershot of breakers at 86 mph that led to a low 14% SwStr rate and poor 45% ICR. I want to feel better about that slider, but hot dang, that was some poor command.
I look at the options for the Twins and it seems clear that Festa should earn a rotation spot out of the gate and guess what? As the SP #4 or #5, Festa would get the White Sox as his first start of the season. Oh BABY. Festa’s ADP may jump drastically during March if he looks confirmed inside the rotation, though you may be able to sneak him as a pickup after the opening weekend. I’m all for that, and I’m also fine with drafting him with one of my final picks. Let’s see if he’s made any adjustments and can take full advantage of regular starts in the majors.
Quick Take: Festa has a good foundation that he needs to build on. Embracing the four-seamer inside to LHB + adding a sinker to RHB, while wrangling the slider are the key factors I’m looking for that could turn him into a legit SP overnight. If he wins a job in camp, he’ll get the White Sox in a start that may put him on the map.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN, RHP)
SWR added velocity to his four-seamer and it helped him earn a 14% SwStr rate to RHB with plenty of hard contact while the slider stepped in to go Dancing With The Disco to save him in multiple starts last season. The four-seamer’s ICR was excellent against LHB, likely due to the changeup’s introduction, though the slowball did not fare well in the slightest. I don’t believe in that heater’s success against LHB and I wouldn’t be surprised if it earned fewer whiffs to RHB next year. Not great, Bob.
Woods Richardson’s fastball, slider, and changeup approach doesn’t quite gel as you want it to and the Twins seemed to notice, electing to pull him before the third time through the lineup, limiting him to fewer than five innings often. He’s a Toby in a 15-teamer at best and it seems as though the Twins have better options for their #4 and #5 spot than Woods Richardson. Maybe he looks new in camp and forces a spot on the roster, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Quick Take: There may be moments this year when SWR gets regular starts and survives 5+ frames with his slider dancing over the plate and fastballs narrowly missing the barrel against LHB, and I’m personally avoiding it even if he’s on a hot streak. There are better options out there.
Chris Paddack (MIN, RHP)
We saw 17 starts from Paddack last year at 93/94 mph with seven feet of extension on the heater and I wish that were enough. His iVB is lacking at such a steep attack angle and he doesn’t pair it with anything above 85 mph to truly take advantage of the extension. He does get whiffs upstairs with it in two-strike counts, but it really struggles against LHB with a near 50% ICR.
His lack of feel for spin (sliders and curves have low ICR but can’t be relied upon for strikes) makes him lean into his vulcan change, which was impressive against RHB last year. He consistently located it down and it saved him in many outings. That said, it wasn’t nearly as effective against LHB (weird, right?) as he couldn’t command it with the same precision.
I’m hesitant to chase Paddack as I ask “Where does he improve?” We’ve desired a legit breaker for ages and never got one, his fastball velocity and shape are unlikely to improve, and he’s already maxing out his split-change save for small adjustments to be made against LHB. It’s not the blueprint for a guy I want to chase in my drafts.
Quick Take: Paddack’s seven feet of extension with a good feel for his vulcan changeup keeps him around, but his four-seamer’s poor shape at 93/94 mph without a solid breaker or cutter or sinker to back it up makes it tough to envision a breakout season in 2025.
Zebby Matthews (MIN, RHP)
I’m awfully conflicted. When I first saw Zebby and tracked him in the minors, I saw a 95+ heater with good movement with a whiff heavy slider, bridge cutter, curve and change on the fringe, and legit command. What we got after was…different. His heater does have solid two-plane movement, but not so much and was left over the middle of the plate a ton, his slider was tugged way out of the zone to RHB (60% strike rate) and often ignored + was left well in the zone frequently to LHB, and his cutter didn’t get far enough inside to prevent damage.
It mapped out a Toby in progress who could jump into the land of Holly if he’s able to get more consistency on the slider to RHB and possibly figure out the curve or change to LHB (and cutter too, while you’re at it). The Twins may be best throwing him into the fire of the bigs and helping him figure it out as he goes, but my guess is Zebby heads to Triple-A with Paddack and Festa taking the rotation spots. It makes sense given his struggles after his first few starts and I’m looking forward to seeing him again this year. Pay attention in the spring to see if he’s improved any of his arsenal and forcing the Twins to add him to the rotation right away.
Quick Take: Zebby still has a bit of work to do with his approach and nailing down his command. His slider shows promise, while the four-seamer and cutter can work well if he’s able to locate them at will – a skill he has flexed at times. I’m curious, but would rather take other chances to kick off the year.
Louis Varland (MIN, RHP)
Varland changed his name from Louie to Louis (pronounced the same…?) and likely won’t have his role changed from the pen. I still have dreams of the man learning how to keep his four-seamer upstairs and land his cutter and [insert reliable breaker here] underneath consistently, taking advantage of the great 96 mph / 7+ feet extension / 1.4 HAVAA trio of his four-seamer. IT’S RIGHT THERE. Sadly, command isn’t his forte and we’re still waiting for that #3 pitch to arrive in full. Sigh. I’m looking forward to those rare spot starts that leave me disappointed.
Names To Know
Huascar Ynoa (MIN, RHP)
Oh snap! You’re back! Ynoa had a wonderful start to 2022, punched a bench and wasn’t the same after, then underwent TJS to start 2023. We haven’t seen him since. The story back then was a filthy slider to go with 96+ mph velocity that was too dang hittable and nothing else, creating the Huascar Rule. It wasn’t sustainable even before the stupid punch many pitchers do for idiotic reasons and I should have known better. Sadly, Ynoa was sitting just 93 mph in Triple-A last year and his formerly 85/86 mph slider fell to 83 mph in step. Ynoa this won’t work. Sorry fella.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Marco Raya (MIN, RHP)
He’s a kitchen sink guy with an 89 mph cutter, a big curve in the mid 80s, a putaway slider at 85 mph with legit movement (and solid command?) and a 94/95 mph four-seamer without the qualities we look for. He’s interesting with a power curve and reliable cutter while not being fastball-first (third most thrown pitch in his Triple-A start!) and I’d give him a look when he gets the call. This may be a solid Holly type eventually if he continues to polish the command and all around arsenal. The only worry is the cutter + four-seamer effectiveness.
CJ Culpepper (MIN, RHP)
Culpepper endured a forearm injury that removed him for two months last year, leading to just six starts in Double-A. He does well with a legit cutter to RHB and sits near mid-90s, though there is a touch more refinement left on the slider’s consistency to project him as a reliable starter this year, especially after his struggles when returning from injury and limitations to roughly 2-3 frames per game. Let’s wait to see him in Triple-A before getting hyped, but if he gets a shot this year he’ll be worth at least your attention. I don’t anticipate a stud, but there may be a worthwhile 12-teamer Toby here.
Travis Adams (MIN, RHP)
He throws 93 mph with a cutter he trusts in the zone at 87+ mph, with a slider and changeup he spots effectively on opposite corners. Maybe that secondary command dictates legitimacy in the majors, though the fastball and cutter aren’t wowing me enough to endorse excitement. He was protected on the 40-man roster by the Twins, suggesting he could get the call earlier than others and we should wait-and-see what we get should the time come.
Andrew Morris (MIN, RHP)
He sits 94 mph and loves to go upstairs with the four-seamer in two-strike counts despite a steep attack angle and mid vert and extension, though he throws lots of strikes. The slider is split into a tighter cutter shape and a slider with more drop, both of which find the zone plenty, the changeup lands down-and-glove side consistently, and the curve can be in the zone or under it, but the stuff? It’s not stellar. He’ll probably produce a sub 8% walk rate with more time in Triple-A and would he get the call, we need to hope he can get the heater closer to 96 mph to make up for the lack of whiffability in the arsenal. With his kind of control and command, he has my attention as a potential innings eater in the majors (it is 93/94 mph, after all), but I’m hesitant to chase for a rookie callup.
Cory Lewis (MIN, RHP)
Lewis has a knuckle ball in the low-80s that he whips out every so often. I question if that will actually carry over into the majors when he gets a shot, but hey, it’s a thing. His time in Triple-A saw a decline in four-seamer velocity to 89 mph, but from a super steep attack angle that granted 18+ inches of iVB, while he pairs it with a gyro slider and curve from the high arm angle. It doesn’t seem too promising from here, though if the velocity returns to 92/93 mph and the breakers are reliable whiff pitches, he could turn into something.