To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Hunter Greene (CIN, RHP)
2024 has all the signs of a peak season from Greene. A stupid low 5.7 hit-per-nine with classic minute .239 BABIP behind it, a home run rate cut in half to just 0.72 HR/9 (and 7.2% HR/FB!), an 80% LOB rate (oh snap, the full HOTEL in effect!), and improvements in ICR rate against all hitters with his four-seamer and slider.
And it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. His four-seamer did gain an extra inch of iVB to 16″ from 15″ with a slight uptick in extension to 6.5 (that’s fine, not stellar, but fine), but is that enough to warrant 60% decline in HRs allowed on the heater? But he added a splitter! He barely touched it to RHB (it was terrible) and it held a paltry 14% putaway rate to LHB with an 11% SwStr rate a horrible strike just above 50%. It wasn’t good y’all.
It’s possible I’m undervaluing the small gains on the heater merged with a focus on increased lateral break on the slider at the cost of drop. And yet, we all know regression is coming to some degree (that is, his pitch results are still not representative of a 5.7 hits per nine. That’s unheard of), and I’m not confident we’re a sizeable distance away from the 4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP days of 2023. This is all without mention his massive injury risk with his ultra velo and 26 starts marking his career high last year, nor the coiled HR rate ready for liftoff in Cincinnati.
Quick Take: Greene’s 28% strikeout rate with glorious ratios in 2024 is sure to prop him in drafts, though the lack of a third pitch merged with clear regression across performance has me labeling Greene as a high bust candidate for 2025. I’d wait until the productive workhorses are off the board for consideration.
Brady Singer (CIN, RHP)
He’s going to be different in Cincinnati! No. Please. Don’t do this again. Singer had a beautiful start to 2024 and we received incessant rants about how Singer is a changed pitcher. He’s finally finding his groove. Singer has figured it out! Nope. He’s still a sinker/slider guy who toyed with a four-seamer and changeup that just don’t work. Moving him away from the SP paradise of Kansas City to the bandbox of Cincy doesn’t help (though, the HR concerns aren’t as warranted as others given his 9th percentile flyball rate around 25%), and I don’t see why we should expect anything different. The slider and sinker are still rough against LHB (the new four-seamer had a 50% strike rate in 11%+ usage. Blegh), while the sinker/slider tandem of called strikes + whiffs (CSW darling!) is still going to keep him competitive against RHB-heavy lineups. There’s sure to be a great stretch in there, but he’s a Toby at best and most likely a streamer when avoiding an LHB-focused squad.
Andrew Abbott (CIN, LHP)
There’s not enough in the tank. The four-seamer is awfully pedestrian (sub 10% SwStr rate to both LHB/RHB and blegh metrics), his changeup does little to instill fear to RHB, and his sweeper fails to excel at the one area it needs to: Demolishing LHB. If Abbott is able to find that slowball, remove his sweeper from missing over the middle of the plate, find the edges with his four-seamer, and keep working in curveballs early for free real estate, then it can absolutely work. We’ve seen it before back in the summer of 2023. There’s too much to work on with a whole against him (Cincy, ugh) to make him a target in drafts.
Quick Take: What does Abbott do well? His four-seamer is far from exceptional, his sweeper can dive under RHB bats but makes plenty of mistakes (especially against LHB!), and his changeup is plenty of steps behind his contemporary southpaws. His situation in Cincy adds more weight to the climb as we can sit back and cheer for his growth with other pitchers in our lineups.
Nick Martinez (CIN, RHP)
Those of y’all who didn’t abandon your leagues for football (Gasp!) in July will remember Martinez’s fantastic performance once he became a starter in early August – 2.42 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22% K rate, 3% BB rate across 63.1 IP and 11 starts. It was a “league winner” type run and you may be inclined to chase it again.
I originally thought I’d be out and I still may be for 12-teamers (Don’t draft Tobys y’all), but I see how this works. I adore Martinez’s command and ability to work many pitches into his mix, even if he lacks an overpowering heater or whiff-heavy breaker. The sinker jams RHB consistently, the four-seamer is often saved for two-strike counts up (with 17-18″ of vert!) against RHB (please save it more, the extension and HAVAA at 92/93 mph is troubling), and his changeup is a massive success against both LHB and RHB.
The real question is his cutter and slider. Neither has formed into a reliable whiff pitch, while the cutter is used as a strike offering over the plate that I wish did a bit more. The changeup is gorgeous and needs to be relied upon heavily to keep batters honest (a little more, to be honest), but if Martinez can figure out his slider or cutter to nullify RHB a touch more, then we may see a 1.10/1.15 WHIP season that flirts with a 25% strikeout rate.
I have to express some concern that the Reds have plenty of options for their rotation and Martinez has a history of moving to the pen when needed. Yes, it drives me up the wall as I want to see him get a chance to regularly start to find the groove he deserves to be in, and it may happen once again even if they express that they want him as a starter (they did last off-season, too!). Monitor the situation in the spring and if Martinez is locked into the rotation, keep an eye on him in deeper formats or as a possible Toby/streamer in your shallower leagues.
Quick Take: Martinez still lacks an overpowering heater or whiff-heavy breaker, but the sinker command and elite changeup merged with a deep pitch-mix make a potential ratio-arm with a tinge of upside if the changeup gets more airtime or his slider/cutter takes a step forward. I just wish he weren’t in Cincy…
Nick Lodolo (CIN, LHP)
We all want this to work. We’ve seen it work and we can taste the 30% strikeout rate paired with glorious ratios. It seems as though the only one who doesn’t want this to work is Lodolo’s body. He’s dealt with an array of injuries that have prevented him from keeping in a groove for a full season, though through his first eleven starts, Lodolo featured a 2.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 26% strikeout rate. I know, I was shocked, too.
His four-seamer and sinker feature the most horizontal breaker in the bigs (thanks low arm angle!), creating a tough time for LHB as the sinker neared a 50% inside location rate for the first time in his career, while the four-seamer acted as a front-hip pitch to freeze many RHB. When his curve is cooking, it lands glove-side beautifully for whiffs, and soars when he can pair it with a changeup arm-side.
However, he appears to be a traditional slingin’ lefty who is susceptible to bouts of chaos. It’s difficult at his arm angle to be precise for prolonged stretches and when it’s rough, it’s rough. In addition, his fastballs are not heavy whiff pitches, relying mostly on the breaker to get punchouts while the changeup’s consistently needs a bit of refinement.
I can feel the anxiety of rostering Lodolo now, not knowing if he will allow 5 ER or 1 ER each time he takes the bump. He may go deep enough in drafts that you can take a chance and see what happens early, though don’t hold on too tight. Blink once and suddenly he’s wearing plaid and holding a PBR. No, not a HIPSTER!
Quick Take: The stuff is there to dominate with double digit strikeouts on a given night, but a journey filled with injuries makes it difficult to trust Lodolo to find a proper groove in the season ahead. Even when he does well, you’ll wonder if he can keep it up. That’s not a fun experience for fantasy managers.
On The Fringe
Rhett Lowder (CIN, RHP)
I wasn’t a fan of Lowder when he made his 2024 debut. His six starts returned a sparkling 1.17 ERA, but a sub 20% strikeout rate and 1.27 WHIP is highly suspect, and it’s due to his questionable arsenal. Lowder’s sinker/slider focus isn’t the typical path toward fantasy prominence, though his sinker carries a great two-plane break with solid command, while his slider is a comfortable strike pitch, even if it lacks massive whiff potential. His four-seamer’s sub 50% strike rate can be explained by its near exclusive usage in two-strike counts (he missed a bit too far up in his small sample), though the pitch is at the bottom of stuff rankings and should continue to be reserved as a surprise pitch.
As a sinker/slider arm, Lowder’s glaring hole is a weapon against LHB, which could be the changeup that was spotted just off the plate constantly last year. I can see Lowder take shape as a Toby in 12-teamers across the year with his ability to find strikes and potential gains with his changeup, but without a whiff-heavy slider against RHB, the ceiling is too limited to target in drafts save for 15-teamers and beyond…assuming he makes the rotation out of camp, of course.
Quick Take: The sinker/slider works, even if it doesn’t come with whiffs. If the changeup comes together and Lowder improves his precision in two-strike counts with both the slider and four-seamer to RHB, he could become a Toby arm, with slight Holly potential. Too much of a leap is needed to bank on that in 2025 drafts, though.
Names To Know
Wade Miley (CIN, LHP)
Wade went under the knife for TJS in May of last year and could miss all of 2025. However, keep an eye on him in the summer in deeper formats – Miley has made a name for himself as an innings eater who could return a cheap Win here and there with his great changeup and cutter combo that carves up RHB-heavy lineups. A desperate streamer for 12-teamers when the time comes, though.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN, RHP)
Does he belong in the pen? Probably not. Ashcraft’s 95/96 mph cutter isn’t a whiff pitch as he fails to locate with precision, especially against RHB. The slider is a strong offering and pairs well with the lively “fastball”, but without a four-seamer or sinker of value, nor a routine stay inside the strike zone, Ashcraft’s slider doesn’t do enough to prevent batters from teeing off the poorly located cutter. I could be interested if the Reds elect to send him to another squad where he could hopefully make an adjustment to get the dang cutter down for a change, and until then, I have no interest.
Carson Spiers (CIN, RHP)
Spiers is a deep league Toby at best when he gets his chances to start. His deep pitch mix opens the door for games where he can flex his pitch separation and generate outs, though the 11+ hit-per-nine should tell how rare those moments were. Without strikeout punch in the mix, Spiers is a desperate stream against a poor lineup when he’s displayed a leash longer higher than 80 pitches.
Brandon Williamson (CIN, LHP)
Williamson got TJS in September of 2024. Sooooo…He won’t pitch at all this year. Ah. Right. Cool cool cool.
Julian Aguiar (CIN, RHP)
There’s not a whole lot to chase here. The sinker at 94+ mph does little to excite, while the changeup and slider look to be middling offerings that do just enough to wrap Julian as a present. “Here you go,” he says, handing you a mysteriously wrapped gift in the unmistakable silhouette of a vase you hated in that random small shop in Connecticut. What was it called? Ah, yes. Shapes and Sizes. Thanks, Julian. I know just the place to put this in my closet. Does that mean you don’t like Aguiar for 2025? No no no, I love it! Really? Did I mention he got TJS? NO. Oh. Yeah, he got that, too.
Lyon Richardson (CIN, RHP)
He throws hard at 95/96 mph, but with blegh shape and sub six feet of extension without a devastating breaker. The changeup can work and look pretty, but I need to see a whole new Lyon to get excited at all this season. He had a decent sinker at 17+ inches of run! At 93 mph, not 95+ and his command is all kinds of terrible. I wonder if he even gets a chance to start this year.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to Mlb.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Chase Petty (CIN, RHP)
Watch Video
I get Aaron Nola vibes watching Petty with a sinker/slider approach that has expanded to be more of a two-plane slider near 85 mph mixed with a harder 90 mph cutter. The sinker finds the zone plenty at 94+ mph, which isn’t the flirtation with 100 mph that he had in high school and could ramp up with more frames. I’m curious if he can pair at least one plus whiff pitch with a spotted sinker, though I’m not sure what the plan against LHB is quite yet. Pay attention, there seems to be a good foundation of command here with some above-average stuff.
Connor Phillips (CIN, RHP)
Watch Video
Phillips’ four-seamer at 96/97 mph is paired with terrible extension and poor iVB and HAVAA marks with what it needs to be as a true whiff pitch. The sweeper and curve show potential, but his command is awfully inconsistent, and I’m not interested in Phillips, even when he makes his return to the majors. Unless our PLV app displays legit changes in Triple-A before the call, I’m carrying awfully low expectations for this season.
Chase Burns (CIN, RHP)
Watch Video
Burns was drafted as the #2 overall pick in 2024 after hurling upper 90s and hitting 102 mph with an upper 80s slider and mid-80s curve. With a number of options available for the Reds, I’d be surprised if they let him loose in the majors this season, though if Burns gets the call, you better add him to your squads.
