Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Because I wasn’t able to get this article out on Sunday, I’m combining all news between Saturday and Monday afternoon into this article and Monday’s SP Roundup article.
Atlanta optioned Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A. Get ready to fire up your Reynaldo López picks, y’all. He’s got the fifth spot and with a fantastic fastball and (hopefully) enough sliders and curves for strikes, he can take full advantage of the ideal team context. Circle him at the end of your drafts as he gets the White Sox in his first start of the year. Perfect.
Josiah Gray and Zack Wheeler are the opening day starters for the Nationals and Phillies, respectively.
Sonny Gray will not be ready for opening day. It doesn’t mean he can’t return to be the fifth arm in the first turn of the rotation, though. He shouldn’t miss much time at all.
The Marlins could use Max Meyer as their fifth starter in the rotation with Pérez, Garrett, and Cabrera all on the mend. It makes more sense to keep Meyer in the minors as it would be a short term gig, but there’s a chance he earns a spot.
Gavin Stone has officially earned the fifth rotation spot for the Dodgers. We assumed as much, but now we have proper confirmation.
Brandon Williamson is dealing with shoulder soreness. We don’t know the extent of it and shoulder soreness is a common side-effect of ramping up in the spring. That said, it does delay Williamson and could mean Connor Phillips or even Chase Petty would get a chance as the SP #7/8 choices before Williamson if there’s decent delay here.
Bob Nightengale now believes that the Astros are a “long shot” for Blake Snell. And so we continue to wait.
Justin Verlander is progressing in his return from shoulder inflammation and is expected to face hitters “in the next day or two”.
José Urquidy officially has a forearm muscle strain. We didn’t expect him to start the year in the rotation and we’re waiting to hear an official timeline.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
Korea vs. SDP
Korea vs. LAD
SDP vs. LG Twins
HOU vs. STL
TBR vs. PIT
TOR vs. PHI
MIN vs. TOR
MIA vs. NYM
LAA vs. ARI
Jhony Brito (SDP) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s throwing cutters inside to LHB and I imagine he’ll develop it more over time to make it more of his approach through the season. It’s him vs. Waldron as the SP #5 and while I personally want it to be Brito, don’t rule out the 3+ frames from Waldron in his game. I think I’d go with Brito against the Cardinals in a 15-teamer if he gets the gig, but not Waldron in the same scenario.
Bobby Miller (LAD) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Miller is at 99 mph with about 18 iVB and that’s hilarious. His slider has turned into a cutter that he got in the zone here for strikes, which is fine, though I’d love for it to turn into a whiff pitch in time. Meanwhile, the four-seamer is in the upper half more than the lower half – exactly what we want given he’s more flat than steep and he has the iVB, velocity, and extension to make it sing upstairs. He can be so dang good if that heater stays in the top third of the zone…
Gavin Stone (LAD) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. WHAT. No. Sure, it was Korea, BUT STILL. We finally have data and there’s some obvious, some blegh and some intriguing. His changeup obviously dominated (and more than we should expect) at 11/20 whiffs, which is all kinds of bonkers. His other pitches weren’t well commanded, though, blasted into the zone without care and failed to articulate the edges as Stone needs to. However, across 13 four-seamers, Stone ranged 94-97 mph, sitting 95.5 mph – 1.5 ticks higher than the 94 mph from last year. Everything was up at least a tick if not flirting with two and that’s awfully encouraging as he looks to put 2023 behind him. I’m still concerned about the ultimate quality of the fastball and slider, but with his first start coming against the Giants, I’m all about drafting him and seeing how he looks in a great matchup.
Dylan Cease (SDP) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. We can’t read into two frames with a new club at all, but his slider was dope while the four-seamer and curve were still an issue. You know, the norm. I sincerely think that Cease can learn a cutter over time, but how quickly will that happen? He’ll rise in my ranks given the improved team context, though not a ton.
Matt Waldron (SDP) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Oh dang, 43% knuckles this time around, not the 25% rate we saw last year. And you know me. Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Framber Valdez (HOU) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. The cutter is still not there, though the changeup is working. Ish. I’m a touch worried still that Framber will have trouble against RHB, but whatever. He’s solid.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. A fair number of effective breakers in this one, but it’s 94 mph on the heaters, not 95 mph. You can ignore this.
José Berríos (TOR) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Just five cutters against LHB and I’m hoping for that pitch to do more over the season. He could really use it.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He sat two ticks down in this one at just under 94 mph, but I’m not worried about it. Wheeler has done this before.
Mitch White (TOR) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s still two ticks harder at 96mph, but the shape was poor last year and unless his extension and VAA massively improved, I don’t buy the 9/33 whiffs it earned here. He’s either the SP #6 or SP #7 with Paolo Espino and I don’t think there’s quite enough here to chase it.
Sixto Sánchez (MIA) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Hey, it’s Sixto! He’s at 95 mph with a slider for 7/10 strikes and that’s it across 20 pitches. Nice to see ya fella.
José Quintana (NYM) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Fastballs were in the middle, curve and changeup were decently down, but yeah, he has to be pristine with that command to make this work. Wait until you see Quintana click during the season.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – 4.1 IP, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. He floated so many sliders and changeups, y’all. The Irish Panda ain’t the exhibition of old.
Zac Gallen (ARI) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s a tick down, but hitting the edges of the zone beautifully. Command is here and if that’s on point, Gallen will come through.
Statcast Games – No TV
BAL vs. DET
Julio Teheran (BAL) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Oh my. You saucy fella. This isn’t gonna work, y’all.
Kenta Maeda (DET) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. He’s still a tick down at 90 mph, but at least we’re getting closer. The splitter and slider were both cooking once again (7/23 whiffs on the split, 12/20 slider strikes with five whiffs) and that’s the core of Maeda’s value. Better overall command, too. Looks like I’m back on the Maeda train if he has the SP #2/#3 spot with his first start coming against the White Sox. Give me all the strikeouts.
Reese Olson (DET) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Super glad to see the changeup focus here at 29% usage (11/19 strikes plays), but the fastball command needs work + the slider wasn’t the Breaker of Spirits we’ve seen in the past. Nevertheless, the SP #5 spot is all but his at this point and we’re rolling with him against the Mets.
No Statcast – TV
NYM vs. WSN
BOS v.s ATL
NYY vs. BOS
TEX vs. CHC
ARI vs. SEA
MIL vs. KCR
Tylor Megill (NYM) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. We’re collectively off the Megill train now, yes? Good. I honestly think José Butto may be better. Sorry.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) – 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. He looks so filthy at times and his four-seamer did get upstairs a ton. Things fell apart a bit and that’s just how it goes, but I can’t help but be encouraged by this from Gore. I’m a little torn as he’ll likely get the Reds in Cincinnati + Phillies and that’s not ideal. That said, he could go a strikeout per inning easily and he may have a much easier time shortly after.
Brayan Bello (BOS) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. He was able to work his sinker front-hip to LHB, which is a wonderful skill if he can maintain it, and I’m not sold he can quite yet. Still waiting for the breaker to make a huge impact, which has me lowering Bello a touch in my ranks. If he unlocks that slider to a 20-25% usage offering that consistently earns strikes and whiffs, hot dang does Bello become a fun arm.
Reynaldo López (ATL) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Four-seamer is still dope and I’m still crossing my fingers he can earn enough strikes with the rest in-season. He’s their SP #5 officially, which makes him an obvious target late in drafts with his first start against the White Sox.
Will Warren (NYY) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. His sweeper is still lovely, though I still question if he has enough else in the tank to be a starter that pushes the needle enough. Regardless, whoever gets the SP #5 spot should be rostered. I’m thinking it’s Warren slightly, with Gil, then Beeter.
Clayton Beeter (NYY) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s starting the same day as Gil and Warren, making it clear it’s a three-arm battle for the SP #5 right now. Beeter looks slightly behind, though, and I’m least encouraged about his fantasy viability with a worse heater/breaker approach than Gil, and not the command of Warren.
Tanner Houck (BOS) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. His sweeper is still filthy and the questions remain about LHB, but Houck is looking impressive this spring and should be rostered out of the gate in 12-teamers. Solid floor with good upside here.
José Ureña (TEX) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Bradford has the SP #5 spot, but Ureña is somehow the sixth. What times we live in.
Javier Assad (CHC) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Huge game for Assad, who showcased he can be with Hayden Wesneski to piggyback in Jameson Taillon’s place if needed. I’m not interested unless he’s confirmed to follow Wesneski and I’m desperate to chase Wins. Still wouldn’t love that.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Even just watching the strikeouts you can see he’s not hitting his spots to get those results, facing a poor spring Guardians lineup. I’m still not convinced and I completely understand if you feel differently.
Cole Ragans (KCR) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I watched all of this one (duh) and he deserved 3 ER in a terrible innings where he was clearly working on his four-seamer and simply didn’t command it well. He was an absolute beast in the other frames, with his sole walk on a borderline 3-2 pitch and the final run allowed in relief after a hit with two outs. There is nothing to worry about at all. PEW PEW PEW.
No Statcast – No TV
ATL vs. BAL
COL vs. SFG
CHW vs. OAK
CIN vs. CLE
Spencer Strider (ATL) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace.
Tyler Wells (BAL) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. I’ve been sleeping on him and while I wish I had data here and want to note that this wasn’t the elite Atlanta lineup, Wells gets the Royals to start the season and possibly the Pirates after that. Grab him at the end of your draft and at least stream the fella.
Cal Quantrill (COL) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. COL story, bro.
Logan Webb (SFG) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. He’s allowed far more ER than we expected in the spring, but at least he went 8/0 K per BB. So we’re fine.
Nick Nastrini (CHW) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Oh cool, the legit prospect that has my ultra attention now as a possible SP #5 for the White Sox wasn’t on TV, nor had data. I NEED TO KNOW MORE. He’s a legit spec add at the moment if he happens to steal that fifth spot. He’s a legit arm and even if he faces Atlanta first, you may not get another chance to roster him all year if he gets officially named the fifth starter.
Alex Wood (OAK) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. That’s a great line from Wood and yet I can’t actually do this in the slightest. Sorry fella.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. He’s now dealing with shoulder soreness as I mentioned at the top.
Shane Bieber (CLE) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. The legend of Bieber is growing and I JUST WANT SOME DATA. It’s incredible frustrating and I wish I can actually lean into a renaissance for Bieber this year. Without data on his breakers and fastball (is it actually sitting 93 or is it 91/92 with him hitting 93?), I can’t assume he’s suddenly more than the 20% strikeout rate guy.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
DL HALL IS FINALLY ON TV
Nick Pivetta – Whirlybird sweeper returning?
Joe Ryan – New SLs + 93 + + sinkers + Out of zone Split?
Martín Pérez – Good enough for deep stream…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 18, 2024