Randy Rodríguez is one of the biggest risers this week and while he has a lot of talented relievers in front of him that may block him from getting a significant portion of the hold chances, we should be open to the upside Rodriguez can bring. Rodriguez showed flashes last season but ultimately finished with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, so what has changed this year?
For starters, we’ve seen Rodriguez boost his slider usage by 15.5% and is now throwing his best pitch (44% Whiff and 46.7% PutAway rates) the majority of the time. He’s also reworked his fastball, getting less horizontal break but adding 1.5″ of iVB and he’s still sitting in the top 98th percentile in HAVAA and spin rates. If he can consistently locate that upper 90s fastball at the top of the zone, the combination with his slider should keep him towards the top of the high-leverage ladder in San Francisco.
Notes
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Hunter Harvey is off to a fantastic start but I have to say I’m a little tentative to buy in as his velocity remains down 2.5 mph. Maybe that is by design (zero walks so far), but there’s obviously a big difference between 95.3 mph and 97.8 mph so we’ll see how it works out in the long run if that velo stays put. The rest of the stuff has more or less stayed the same.
- The Mets are the latest organization to earn the pitching factory label and for good reason, as it feels like everyone they bring in comes out of their laboratory pitching at their highest level. Even after his breakout in 2024, Reed Garrett is still tinkering, as he’s changed up his pitch mix a little this season, bumping up his cutter 13.2% and more or less shelving his four-seamer so far. The four-seamer was his weak spot last season (.389 BA, .667 SLG) so it makes sense.
- So I know it’s only seven innings, but Tyler Rogers has a 15.6% SwStr rate? Nothing has changed and it’s the same old Tyler Rogers but this is a guy who averaged eight strikeouts a month last year and has 20 days left to reach that mark this month. I highly doubt this strikeout barrage continues, but even still, we know how steady Rogers is at the back end for the Giants and he arguably has the highest floor of anyone on this list.
- Nick Mears is back today and should work his way into a high-leverage role for the Brewers rather quickly. Mears only appeared in 12.1 regular season innings for the Brewers last year but held a 2.38 SIERA, 28.3% K-BB, and 17.2% SwStr rates, as well as a 120 Stuff+ (tied with Trevor Megill for best in that bullpen).
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Ryan
Zephyr SongZeferjahn has carried over his fantastic end to the 2024 season and could wind up as the Angels’ eighth-inning man with Ben Joyce struggling. The cutter remains Zeferjahn’s go-to offering, but he’s still able to sit at 98 mph with his four-seamer and the sweeper is a big whiff-getter for him.
- After having some hype last offseason, Phil Maton was an afterthought this offseason but was finally able to land with the Cardinals less than a month ago. Not much has changed in his arsenal, and he’s still leaning on his rising cutter the most, but he has shown some increased velocity so far. Even for a guy like Maton where velocity may not seem important, an increase (or decrease) of 2 mph can make all the difference.
