The List 8/29: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 22

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this year: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• BIG ANNOUNCEMENT – This is the FINAL week of The List being “The List” as you know it. Next week begins the process of looking at team schedules as a whole, then ranking based on expected matchups. It’s messy and convoluted and super difficult to pull off, but it’s more helpful than a generalized “skills” List that I usually put out. For reference, here is how it looked last year. I’ll have the normal rank return in October when I do my Way Too Early 150 SP ranking.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Clayton Kershaw (32)
• Removed: Zack Wheeler (6), Tony Gonsolin (25), Nestor Cortes (34), 
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (+2)

 

• What to do about Justin Verlander? If I were a betting man, I imagine the Astros will at least prevent him from starting this week, if not holding off well into September. They’re up in the division by a sizeable amount and have no need to rush Verlander back. It’s not confirmed, though, so he remains on The List for now. Be ready for some lost time.
• That does mean I anticipate Cristian Javier to once again join the rotation this weekend in his place, a little sooner than next week’s anticipated return.

 

• The second tier gets a bit of a shuffle at the backend, as I opened it up to more names, like Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, and Shane Bieber. They all deserve it and you know it.
• I had to give a small drop to Alek Manoah as I’m a touch worried about the feel of his sinkers and sliders. The four-seamer is still excellent, the rest of the arsenal isn’t in step as it is with the others in the tier.

 

• Tier 3 houses a pair of fallers this week in Joe Musgrove and Logan Webb. Simply put, they haven’t been true aces as of late and could arguably be on the verge of losing their AGA labels if they continue the trend.
• I gave Framber Valdez his AGA label as he’s been a rock for managers all season long, save for a stumble a few weeks ago. Welcome aboard bucko.

 

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• The fourth tier begins with a trio of rising arms. Lance Lynn has looked like his former sturdy self and could earn an AGA before all is said and done, while the concerns we had of Kyle Wright’s dead arm were quelled after sitting a full tick higher than his season mark. Good stuff.
• And then there’s Spencer Strider, with his league-leading strikeout rate and two more ultra-dominant outings on his resume. Just one or two more without a blowup and it’s yours.

 

• We’ve seen the best of Zac Gallen over the last few weeks as he continues to climb up the ranks, while Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, and Charlie Morton each took a step back in their climbs. All of these are clear starts moving forward, but I have to tinker here and there in case these are deeper trends.
• I wasn’t sure where to place Clayton Kershaw as it’s all but confirmed that he’s starting by the end of the weekend. The Dodgers are sure to be careful with him as they gear up for the playoffs, but he’s essentially an auto-start through it all.

 

• I feel as if I didn’t make many sweeping changes this week and Tier 5 is one of those places. Sure, I moved up Dustin May and Adam Wainwright over Reid Detmers and Jordan Montgomery (May and Waino stayed strong, Detmers and Monty showed fault), but not a whole lot to report here.
• Okay, Freddy Peralta is looking closer to his former self, but still has a game or two left in my view before he’s Tier 4 or higher.

 

• We have a few major moves in Tier 6. Andrew Heaney was at #60 last week due to his limitations, but we finally saw him not just go five frames but six, as he was extended to 90+ pitches. That’s a huge deal for a guy with great stuff and he soars nineteen spots.
• I gave some bumps to Jesús Luzardo and Brady Singer as I’m buying more into their approaches. Luzardo’s changeup has been fantastic while Singer has made the sinker/slider work. Credit given where it’s due.

 

• I’m still skeptical about Frankie Montas‘ rebound as he hasn’t had all of his splitter/cutter/slider working for a bit. He’s on the mend, but not ready for a big jump yet.
• I gave a drop to Edward Cabrera that may be a little harsher than it needs to (the Dodgers are tough!), though Los Angeles did expose a major weakness is Cabrera’s approach – an overly heavy reliance on O-Swing. I wonder if he can adapt and progress well.

 

• The seventh tier saw a drop for Marcus Stroman and José Urquidy, who are disappointing managers who have depended on them to be reliable. I’m still likely starting them, but it’s frustrating.
• Ignore the dip for Sonny Gray – I had to raise others ahead of him, like Drew Rasmussen and Merrill Kelly. Don’t overthink it.

 

• Tier 8 is a mini-upside tier, beginning with David Peterson and today’s lead Drew Smyly. I’m picking up both for the final stretch wherever I can – Peterson’s slider is boasting a 45% O-Swing with a 25% SwStr rate (30% usage!), while Smyly’s velocity is up + he’s executing the BSB incredibly well.
• José Berríos is flirting with his best self and making his best effort to redeem a lost season, while his teammate Ross Stripling has improved his four-seamer and still retains a strong changeup. Sign me up.

 

• The ninth tier is your Toby tier, with few changes outside of Cole Irvin massively jumping up as he returned with fury last week with 21 four-seamer whiffs. I know, absolutely wild.
• Good to see José Quintana get a bit of his command back as well, while Michael Wacha gets the benefit of the doubt after one mediocre outing.

 

• The tenth tier returns to upside, leading with Roansy Contreras and Domingo Germán. Contreras’ slider has impressed me, though I have my questions about his four-seamer, while Germán’s curve has allowed him to soak a few Wins for the Yankees. Both could be trending in the right direction at the right time.
• I’m not seeing enough from Luis Garcia to believe a major resurgence is on the way, though the schedule will give him every chance to. I sure hope he does.

 

• The eleventh tier has a fair amount of red, and it’s what Jake Odorizzi is used to painting the top of the zone – 73% four-seamers in his last start. With a good schedule and a winning offense, he should be picked up and started plenty.
• I have my concerns about Mike Clevinger’s secondary stuff, while Noah Syndergaard hasn’t lived up to his side of the bargain, failing to take advantage of a date with the Pirates. It’s all awfully mediocre, pushing them into a tier of “alright, I guess so.”

 

• It’s been rough rostering Sean Manaea across the last few weeks, watching him struggle against poor offenses like the Giants, Marlins, and Royals. It’s hard to feel confident he’ll turn it around in the near future, but yes, there’s a chance.
• But hey, at least there’s Kyle Gibson having his moments of bliss here and there. We just can’t get rid of you, can we Kyle.

 

• The 12th tier is the crew of “oh, I guess this is working out and let’s hope it continues to do so,” featuring four members of Orioles Magic – Austin Voth, Dean Kremer, Spenser Watkins, and Kyle Bradish. I can’t say I implore you to snatch them up, but I guarantee at least one (if not more) will continue their success. Good luck picking the right one.
• Matt Manning had another successful start, this time earning a whopping 61% CSW with his slider…despite poorly locating them in the heart of the plate. I’m not confident it’ll stick, but hey, he’s boasting the 10th best ERA among all starters at the moment…across sub-40 IP.

 

• I gave drops to both Eric Lauer and Alex Wood as you simply don’t feel comfortable starting them in any scenario at the moment. Can it work out? Sure, but good luck selecting your spots. You’re better off without the stress in most cases.
• Rich Hill returns to The List and how could he not after fanning eleven in seven frames? It has all the indications for being an exception, but even expressing an extreme is better than those below.

 

• The final tier has your last hopes for something of value. Brayan Bello had an exciting start last time out and may have settled his MLB jitters, Adrian Martinez has a wicked changeup, Clarke Schmidt has a chance to earn Wins with the Yankees, Cade Cavalli’s stuff is far better than his MLB debut’s line would suggest, and maybe Trevor Rogers is fixed when he returns this week.
• …or you can go with Marco Gonzales or James Kaprielian. If you must.

 

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

(Thanks everyone)

 

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	TEX	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
2	Corbin Burnes	ARI	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Shane McClanahan	TB	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Justin Verlander	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+1
7	Gerrit Cole	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
8	Carlos Rodón T2	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
9	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
10	Dylan Cease	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
11	Julio Urías		Aces Gonna Ace	+1
12	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
13	Max Fried	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
14	Aaron Nola	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
15	Shane Bieber	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
16	Robbie Ray	SF	Aces Gonna Ace	+5
17	Luis Castillo	SEA	Aces Gonna Ace	+5
18	Alek Manoah	LAA	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
19	Joe Musgrove T3	SD	Aces Gonna Ace	-5
20	Yu Darvish	SD	Aces Gonna Ace	-
21	Logan Webb	SF	Aces Gonna Ace	-3
22	Framber Valdez	DET	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
23	Lance Lynn T4		Ace Potential	+6
24	Kyle Wright	CHC	Ace Potential	+8
25	Spencer Strider	ATL	Ace Potential	+5
26	Chris Bassitt	BAL	Ace Potential	-3
27	Zac Gallen	ARI	Ace Potential	+6
28	Kevin Gausman	TOR	Ace Potential	-2
29	Charlie Morton	SD	Ace Potential	-2
30	Blake Snell	LAD	Ace Potential	-2
31	Triston McKenzie	SD	Ace Potential	-
32	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Playing Time Question	+UR
33	Tyler Anderson T5	SD	Quality Starts	+2
34	Freddy Peralta	NYM	Ace Potential	+4
35	Cristian Javier	HOU	Ace Potential Playing Time Question	+1
36	Dustin May	STL	Ace Potential	+5
37	Adam Wainwright		Quality Starts	+3
38	Reid Detmers	LAA	Ace Potential	-1
39	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Quality Starts	-
40	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	Ace Potential	+2
41	Andrew Heaney T6		Low Ips	+19
42	Pablo López	MIN	Ace Potential	+1
43	Miles Mikolas		Quality Starts	+2
44	George Kirby	SEA	Quality Starts	+3
45	Logan Gilbert	SEA	Quality Starts	+3
46	Jesús Luzardo	PHI	Ace Potential	+7
47	Brady Singer	CIN	Strikeout Upside	+8
48	Jeffrey Springs		Strikeout Upside	+1
49	Lucas Giolito	SD	Ace Potential	+7
50	Frankie Montas	SD	Ace Potential	+1
51	Edward Cabrera	CHC	Ace Potential	-7
52	Joe Ryan T7	MIN	Ace Potential	+2
53	Drew Rasmussen	TB	Toby	+4
54	Merrill Kelly	ARI	Quality Starts	+4
55	Sonny Gray	BOS	Strikeout Upside	-3
56	Martín Pérez	ATL	Quality Starts	+3
57	Nick Lodolo	CIN	Cherry Bomb	+4
58	Patrick Sandoval	BOS	Cherry Bomb	+4
59	Marcus Stroman		Quality Starts	-13
60	José Urquidy		Quality Starts	-10
61	David Peterson T8	NYM	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+15
62			Streaming Option	+17
63	José Berríos	TOR	Cherry Bomb	+10
64	Ross Stripling		Streaming Option	+14
65	Justin Steele	CHC	Cherry Bomb	-2
66	Michael Wacha T9	KC	Toby	-2
67	Jose Quintana	COL	Toby	-
68	Corey Kluber		Toby	-
69	Cole Irvin	LAD	Toby	+14
70	Jameson Taillon	CHC	Toby	-
71	Roansy Contreras T10		Cherry Bomb	+4
72	Domingo Germán		Cherry Bomb	+15
73	Luis Garcia	NYY	Cherry Bomb	-1
74	Taijuan Walker	PHI	Toby	+8
75	Alex Cobb	SD	Cherry Bomb	+9
76	Jake Odorizzi T11		Streaming Option	+16
77	Mike Clevinger	PIT	Toby	-12
78	Ranger Suarez	BOS	Streaming Option	-1
79	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	Toby	-8
80	Noah Syndergaard		Toby	-11
81	Josiah Gray	WSH	Cherry Bomb	-1
82	Kyle Gibson		Toby	+12
83	Sean Manaea	NYM	Cherry Bomb	-17
84	Austin Voth T12	TOR	Streaming Option	+14
85	Dean Kremer	BAL	Streaming Option	+4
86	Johnny Cueto		Toby	+2
87	Aaron Civale		Toby	+4
88	Matt Manning	PHI	Streaming Option	+12
89	Spenser Watkins		Streaming Option	+UR
90	Rich Hill		Streaming Option	+UR
91	Eric Lauer	TOR	Cherry Bomb	-10
92	Alex Wood		Cherry Bomb	-7
93	Kyle Bradish	BAL	Streaming Option	+UR
94	Marco Gonzales T13	SD	Toby	+2
95	James Kaprielian		Streaming Option	-
96	Brayan Bello	BOS	Streaming Option	+UR
97	Adrián Martínez		Streaming Option	+UR
98	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	Streaming Option	+UR
99	Cade Cavalli	WSH	Stash Option	+UR
100	Trevor Rogers	BAL	Stash Option	+UR

 

Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)