As the season unfolds, I’ve broken down every MLB team’s starting rotation and forecasted them with each team’s upcoming schedule. You may ask, why would you do this? The most straightforward answer is finding the best upcoming matchups for the lesser-known starting pitchers.
This way, we can maximize the end of our rosters and try to squeeze every last ounce of value that might be available on a waiver wire. Or, perhaps, drop a fringe-worthy pitcher early due to horrendous matchups.
Churning your roster at the correct times is critical to in-season management. Think about it this way: do you really need to hold onto that pitcher if you won’t start him in these key weeks?
Indeed, we are ranking these matchups based on the opponent’s offense, and here are my offensive tiers to do so. Also, please don’t get held up on the offensive rankings … if your preference is to stream against STL instead of NYM, or you think CLE should be in the “Fine” tier; go for it!
Dave Swan’s Offensive Tiers
(OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
(DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
SPOT STARTER should be obvious but it means this pitcher will only start once.
??? represents a rotational spot that is unclear, and there will be notes explaining options.
Diamondbacks’ Expected Schedule
- This might be a nice little spot to stream from. Maybe not with Henry but Ryne Nelson could work a few times here.
- With only one OFF day on Monday during Weeks 10-11, you might see a little more bulk work for Drey Jameson out of the pen.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta’s Expected Schedule
- Shuster and Soroka with easier matchups in the first two weeks could be useful.
- Shuster – Week 10: vs. WSN, Week 11: @ DET.
- Soroka – Week 10: vs. WSN, Week 11: vs. COL.
Orioles’ Expected Schedule
- With the extra rotation spot, things could get interesting. Perhaps, we’ll see innings open up for Austin Voth? Although, he pitched on Sunday (6/4). There is a decent shot that spot is skipped with the OFF days, so don’t make this a priority spot until announcements get made.
Red Sox’s Expected Schedule
- Chris Sale to the IL.
- That’ll open a spot back up for a number of options to return. Recently, Kutter Crawford made a three-inning appearance in the doubleheader. Also, Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta could be options.
Cubs’ Expected Schedule
- Justin Steele to the IL and Hayden Wesneski should nab his starts.
- With only one OFF day during Weeks 10-11, we could see an extended use of the bullpen.
White Sox’s Expected Schedule
- The rotation gets solidified by the return of Clevinger.
Reds’ Expected Schedule
- Note: The Reds are taxed one tier anytime they are home. Hence, different shades for games vs. MIL, LAD, COL, and ATL.
- Hunter Greene was skipped and is expected to start on Sunday(6/11). Likely, he’ll jump back in the rotation and Andrew Abbott will be out after his two starts. However, Abbott could shove and end up staying, so wait and see.
Guardians’ Expected Schedule
- With extra off days on each turn of the rotation, things should be a little smoother for Civale and McKenzie, as they return.
- Cal Quantrill heads to the IL with shoulder issues.
Rockies’ Expected Schedule
- Note: The Rockies are taxed one tier anytime they are home. Hence, different shades for games vs. SFG, SDP, LAA, and LAD.
- Yes, skip this team.
Tigers’ Expected Schedule
- The injuries mount up quickly for Detroit. E-Rod and Faedo hit the IL.
- In their place, we get Reese Olson and, likely, Garrett Hill. Hill is up from Triple-A and harnesses an electric fastball but the more intriguing arm might be Olson. He showcased a 26% K-rate in the minors and struck out six White Sox in a five-inning appearance last week.
Astros’ Expected Schedule
- Houston moves into a six-man rotation with Ronel Blanco joining the rotation.
Royals’ Expected Schedule
- Monday (6/5) will open with Carlos Hernández, and Max Mayers is expected to grab the bulk work. Last Monday, we had a similar situation and Mayers was able to secure the W on six innings of two-hit ball.
- Brad Keller threw a bullpen session but won’t be ready for some time.
Angels’ Expected Schedule
- Weeks 10-11 should be as we expect, but it’ll get dicey afterward. Don’t forecast much after these next two weeks.
Dodgers’ Expected Schedule
- There has been some chatter that Julio Urías will re-enter the rotation. However, there isn’t a lot of concrete evidence this will be the case. If Urias still needs another week, we’d see Michael Grove get the nod in Week 10 (@ PHI).
Marlins’ Expected Schedule
- Really solid matchups in Weeks 10-11 for this rotation.
Brewers’ Expected Schedule
- Things are pretty straightforward in Week 10. But, Week 11 will be a different story. The OFF days on Monday and Thursday could result in someone getting skipped. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen Rea get bumped to the bullpen in a spot.
Twins’ Expected Schedule
- Extra OFF days in Weeks 10-11 mean the rotation should be easy to predict.
- Nearing a return, Kenta Maeda is making rehab starts.
Mets’ Expected Schedule
- Much like we saw in Milwaukee, Week 10 is smooth sailing. But Week 11 has multiple OFF days early in the week. With how Megill’s command issues have gone, that could be who gets skipped.
Yankees’ Expected Schedule
- Nestor Cortes is expected to hit the IL, so Brito jumps back into the rotation. It’s a shoulder situation and could be a few starts.
- With three OFF days over the next 12 days, the rotation could be shuffled about and hard to predict.
Athletics’ Expected Schedule
- It feels like every week there is a new name joining the rotation. Outside of maybe Sears or Blackburn on a home start, it’s best to move along.
Phillies’ Expected Schedule
- We’ve seen a bit of Dylan Covey, and it’s not good. While Covey is the assumed primary arm for the workload in Week 10 (vs. LAD), we’d all rather see a change made.
Pirates’ Expected Schedule
- If you’re in a deeper league and need a streaming option, PIT could be a place for you. It’s not pretty but some of these names could be on your wire.
Padres’ Expected Schedule
- Quite a wonky start schedule: finishing up a home series vs. CHC, two more vs. SEA, and then a three-game stint in Coors.
- Ryan Weathers has been abysmal in easier matchups. Things get a bit more difficult for him in Weeks 10-11, drop him. Seth Lugo and Adrian Morejon are right around the corner.
Giants’ Expected Schedule
- The injury to Alex Wood locks Sean Manaea into the rotation, again. But he’ll likely get an opener.
- The other option spot is tricky. The Giants are no strangers to true bullpen games but also have bulk RP options like Jakob Junis. In the minors, Kyle Harrison looms.
Mariners’ Expected Schedule
- To the IL for Marco Gonzales. In his spot, we get Bryan Woo. For those interested in Woo, he struck out 59 batters over 44 minor league innings with a 2.05 ERA. However, he did recently let up six ER in a pair of innings against TEX.
Cardinals’ Expected Schedule
- We’ll stick with Matz in the bullpen and go with this five-man rotation.
Rays’ Expected Schedule
- As usual, Tampa is doing some shuffling of the rotation and making it challenging to predict the matchups. Furthermore, things could get a little shuffled, depending on where Fleming comes into the mix. My lean, Weeks 10-11 should be pretty set. Yes, I realize after typing this, it’ll change indefinitely.
Rangers’ Expected Schedule
- Everything should be very straightforward. However, one OFF over the next couple of weeks means we could see a little more usage out of the pen.
Blue Jays’ Expected Schedule
- Everything should be very straightforward for Weeks 10-11.
Nationals’ Expected Schedule
- Best to keep looking around. Talent and matchups aren’t a strong combination here.