Hitter List 9/22: Top 150+ Hitters For 2022 – Week 24

• As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.

• I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.

• I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. Jon’s way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for Jon (and me) over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mate’s player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could I be weird. In a bad way.

• Yes, these ranks vary from the official PL positional rankings that I also developed in the offseason. That’s because these are only mine – no input from others. This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.

• I’m using 20 games as the threshold for positional eligibility in the List. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!

And now a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:

• I’ve gotten more level-headed over the years regarding weighing stolen bases, but I still think they’re precious given how rare they’re becoming. Every steal is important, so don’t take those “chip-in” steals for granted. Finding steals at the end of the season can be a dogfight.

• If I did want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart. While we don’t have much for rolling data in 2022, you can see where they currently are on a rolling chart and see how it compares to their career trajectory.

• No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), and lineup context. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators. Unlike Nick, I’ll also look at other rankings as I prepare my own to feel how my colleagues value certain players, positions, or stats. I recommend trying as many of these things as you can until you find what you like.

• Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is really neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.

• On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.

• Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 at-bats regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.

• If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!

Ranking Notes

Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring myself and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!

TIER 1

• I had to add Yordan Alvarez back to the top tier as he’s currently the hottest hitter on the planet.

TIER 2

• Juan Soto has been disappointing over the second half, but maybe he can turn the weekend trip to Coors into a repeat of his 2021 Home Run Derby performance?

TIER 3

• Bo Bichette takes another jump for one very important reason—he stole two bases without getting caught. In fact, Bichette has succeeded in swiping a bag in four of his last five attempts. That’s much more encouraging than his 50% conversion rate prior to this stretch. I’ll probably bring my stolen base expectations down for Bichette next season, looking at him more as a 30 home run, 10 to 15 stolen base sort of hitter who can hit safely above .280 even when he has extended slumps. There’s something about this season that feels like a floor, and if that’s true, whoa.

• Bryce Harper continues to struggle in September with unusually high strikeout rates and a general lack of power. He may still be dealing with lingering issues related to the injuries he’s suffered through this season, but Harper has the kind of upside and talent that forces me to keep him high in the rankings. Harper will be ranked considerably higher than this in my 2023 rankings as I don’t think this lingers into next season. The injury risk is a big deal, but not big enough to ignore his massive upside.

TIER 4

• Teoscar Hernández and Matt Olson have been some of the coldest bats in baseball recently, and I could see justifications where you bench one or both of them against tough starters where you need batting average or speed instead of power.

TIER 5

• Over his last 14 games, Willy Adames is hitting .377/.468/.755 with eight doubles, four home runs, 28 combined runs and RBI, and a pair of stolen bases. His last home run got him to 30 on the season, and Willy should get to 100 RBI if he stays even the slightest bit hot. When you combine Adames’s power with his exceptional defense, you have a player who should be hitting near the top or middle of the order for the Brew Crew for at least a few more seasons. The ratios might a little disappointing over long stretches (though I think Adames can improve this part of his game), but the power and counting stats should continue to pile up.

TIER 6

TIER 7

• Luis Robert will be highly ranked in 2023, but his injuries and ice-cold bat have me pushing him down. I could probably justify dropping him another tier or two if I wanted, but I am still bullish on Robert’s long-term and keeper value.

• Starting in this tier, all players received a plus-four to plus-six bump in rankings by sole virtue of the fact that about six players hit the IL (see the Taxi Squad for what I would do about those specific players).

TIER 8

TIER 9

• Gunnar Henderson is having an unbelievable debut, hitting .319 and slugging .565 over his first 75 plate appearances. The plate discipline is great (especially for a rookie) and he’s really starting to tap into his power with seven extra-base hits in his last 10 games. I could see a 25 home run, 15 stolen base type of season for Gunnar in 2023, though the 26.4% strikeout rate in triple-A has me still wondering a bit about what the batting average could look like in a larger sample.

• There are tons of reasons to worry about Oneil Cruz’s strikeout rate and it’s absolutely something that will hold him back. All of that said, Cruz is so explosive in all aspects of the game. I love watching him play. I also love that Cruz is actually chasing fewer pitches now than ever before, which is a big surprise given his strikeout rate in September is over 40%. There’s so much talent here and it’s great to see some important stats trending in the right direction.

TIER 10

TIER 11

• Joey Meneses is showing some signs of getting his plate discipline under control with a 16% walk rate and a 24% strikeout rate over his last 25 plate appearances. I get the feeling that the September version of Meneses is closer to the type of player to expect next season. That’s still a solid player, potentially, but the batting average could change significantly if the strikeout rate creeps back up to the upper-20s.

• Tim Anderson is expected back this week, and if that indeed happens he would be someone I’d plug back into my lineup right away. The fact it’s a hand injury adds a little trepidation in me, but not enough to act on it.

TIER 12

• It’s a small sample and whatever but Corbin Carroll could be a monster in 2023. He’s off to a terrific start, and I’d expect to hear a lot of Corbin Carroll talk in the offseason.

TIER 13

• Josh Jung hasn’t walked yet in the majors, but I’m sure he will soon. Adjusting to major league pitching is hard.

• Jose Siri is really, really fast. He’s also making more contact and taking some walks, albeit at the bottom of the Rays lineup. That said, Siri has an everyday job thanks to his speed and defense, and the Rays are never afraid to let him run.

• Jeremy Peña continues to look like a new hitter at the plate, hitting .273/.333/.500 in his last 11 games with three home runs and a stolen base. Peña is also bringing in the runs scored as he bats second for the Astros, with 10 runs scored in those 11 games, including one in each of his last five games. Peña will be on my list of targets if he falls too far as I think he can be a very serviceable middle infielder in most 12-team formats.

TAXI SQUAD

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