Is the Jeremiah Estrada breakout finally happening? It’s only 11.2 IP, but I think it may be as the talented reliever holds a 0.77 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 35% K rate, 2.58 SIERA (and elite 145 Stuff+ and 5.48 PLV). Estrada has added a new wrinkle to his repertoire this season with a new splitter that he is throwing 22.6% of the time (mostly to combat lefties) and currently holds a 60% Whiff rate. The fastball/combo was always tantalizing in itself but this new splitter could be what keeps him at the MLB level moving forward. With the splitter addition, Estrada has dropped his four-seam usage by 30% and he’s even upped the slider usage 10% as well to be more well-rounded. The early results of these changes are fantastic, and if the success continues into June, he could be in that top tier by the All-Star break.
Notes
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Edwin Diaz is tough to rank here as he’s not the closer for the time being and likely won’t see a ton of holds, but at the same time, he still needs to be rostered everywhere. By default, he’s the top non-closer reliever to roster right now, as he should eventually get things turned around and get back on track. Now’s a great time to buy low if you can.
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A.J. Puk still doesn’t look like the reliever we saw in the first half of last season, with just 1 K over 3.1 IP since returning, and he’s also allowed 3 hits, 2 BB and 3 ER. The good news from his last outing in which he allowed those 3 ER was that at least we saw an uptick in fastball velocity, with him averaging 95.7 mph on the six fastballs he threw. I’m not totally out yet, but there are a lot of other options that are more exciting in front of him.
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Mark Leiter Jr. has been awesome so far this season with 31.7% K and 15% SwStr rates, a 1.05 WHIP and 2.61 SIERA, but I am a little concerned that neither Stuff+ (92) nor PLV (4.91) love his arsenal. We also saw him put up similar numbers last year through June before disappearing from July onward. Role with him for now, but this may be a bit of a Vargas Rule type situation.
| Mark Leiter Jr.s 2023 splits | K% | SwStr% | SIERA | xFIP | WHIP |
| First 33.2 IP | 36.1% | 14.2% | 2.45 | 2.54 | 0.86 |
| Last 30.2 IP | 21.3% | 11.7% | 4.40 | 4.89 | 1.40 |
- Two guys who were both in the closer mix at one point or another this season, Kevin Ginkel and Alex Lange are both dropping in the rankings this week, as Lange has not been able to find any consistency while Ginkel has just recently been a mess. The stuff is still there for Ginkel (and Lange) to get back to normal, but the inability to miss bats this season (21.4% K, 9.7% SwStr, and 25.1% CSW rates) is definitely cause for concern.
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Tommy Kahnle and Pierce Johnson both returned this past week and should see immediate holds chances. Johnson’s outlook is a little more murky as he has more competition in that Braves bullpen, although he was pitching well before his injury. Kahnle is just debuting this week but is a much-needed piece to that bullpen has been trying to find a set-up option in front of Clay Holmes (and lost Ian Hamilton to the Covid-IL). If Kahnle looks good this week and is getting high-leverage work, expect him to move up the ranks next week.
- For those in dynasty leagues, Randy Rodríguez and Justin Martinez are two names worth keeping an eye on. With Rodríguez, there’s a lot to like about his 27.7% K-BB rate, 2.30 SIERA, 5.43 PLV and 124 Stuff+ but that strikeout rate doesn’t seem sustainable with 9.9% SwStr and 25% CSW rates. I think it’s more likely we see the SwStr/CSW numbers rise than the K rate drop dramatically, and eventually I’d hope to see him get more hold chances although it is a deep bullpen at the moment. With Martinez, I want to believe, I really do, as the stuff can be electric and he does possess elite bat missing potential (17.2% SwStr rate). But it will always come down to the walk rate, and 17% is still obviously way too high. Just get it down to 10% man and we’ll be in business.
If you would like more daily reliever updates, please check out our Reliever Ranks series.
SP Eligible Relievers
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Mason Miller | OAK | Closer in Oakland |
| 2. | Michael Kopech | CWS | Closer in Chicago for now |
| 3. | Matt Strahm | PHI | One of the best middle-relief fantasy options |
| 4. | Hunter Gaddis | CLE | Been impressive in a bullpen role |
| 5. | Ryan Walker | SF | Fastball/slider combo from funky slot plays up in pen |
| 6. | Luke Weaver | NYY | Top setup option in New York now? |
| 7. | John Brebbia | CWS | Back in the White Sox pen after IL stint |
| 8. | Caleb Ferguson | NYY | Slow start, but still needed in that pen |
| 9. | Shawn Armstrong | TB | 1.38 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in 54 IP last year |
| 10. | Calvin Faucher | MIA | Stuff is playing up out of the pen |