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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
1/13 Update: Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs have been added to this article.
Expected Starters
JP Sears (ATH, LHP)
| IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | H/9 | ICR% | CSW% | PLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 180.2 | 11-13 | 4.38 | 1.22 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 8.6 | 36.8% | 27.2% | 5.16 |
| 2025 PL Projection | 169 | 9-9 | 4.46 | 1.23 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 8.5 | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 40.5% | 91.9 | 13.2% | 11.3% | 24.5% | 63.8% | 41.1% | 5.08 |
| Sweeper | 19.7% | 78.7 | 7.6% | 23.2% | 30.8% | 70.3% | 40.2% | 5.57 |
| Changeup | 24.0% | 84 | 8.8% | 13.2% | 22.1% | 59.9% | 32.1% | 4.73 |
| Sinker | 8.0% | 89.9 | 5.0% | 23.2% | 28.2% | 69.1% | 36.4% | 4.64 |
| Slider | 7.8% | 79.1 | 10.7% | 20.9% | 31.6% | 70.6% | 44.4% | 5.44 |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 20.2% | 92.1 | 14.3% | 25.2% | 39.5% | 74.8% | 44.4% | 5.42 |
| Sweeper | 45.1% | 78.8 | 14.3% | 15.5% | 29.8% | 60.4% | 34.0% | 5.58 |
| Changeup | 0.9% | 84.7 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 80.0% | – | 5.11 |
| Sinker | 20.6% | 90.1 | 5.0% | 22.3% | 27.3% | 72.7% | 20.7% | 5.22 |
| Slider | 13.3% | 79.4 | 14.1% | 17.9% | 32.1% | 59.0% | 35.3% | 5.31 |
| Pitch Type | MPH | Ext | iHB | iVB | VAA | HAVAA | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 91.9 | 6.4 | 12.1 | 13.9 | -3.9 | 1.6 | 5.12 |
| Sweeper | 78.7 | 6.4 | -13.5 | 2.4 | -6.2 | 0.2 | 5.57 |
| Changeup | 84 | 6.4 | 17.3 | 0.8 | -6.1 | 0.5 | 4.73 |
| Sinker | 89.9 | 6.4 | 16.5 | 5 | -5.5 | 1.3 | 4.87 |
| Slider | 79.1 | 6.4 | -6.6 | 6.3 | -5.7 | 0.5 | 5.40 |
I know this may sound strange, but Sears is kinda close to being dope. Kinda. He’s a slingin’ southpaw who has relied in the past on his four-seamer’s excellent HAVAA to get whiffs upstairs, but that isn’t really what Sears is great at. Sure, it’s a strong putaway offering against LHB (just 20% usage and near half the time in two-strike counts) and it can be effective against RHB, though his command of it wavers between starts. The other fastball was the glorious offering of 2024, a sinker he added in the off-season that became the early heater to LHB, overwhelming them to a 20% ICR. That’s deuces, y’all. Its 5.33 PLV was justified with 50% armside location and allowed him to go sinker early, sweeper mid/late, four-seamer late.
But against RHB, that’s where the concerns arise. I don’t expect the four-seamer to improve, and I personally believe the sweeper’s effectiveness in 2024 may take a step back in the year ahead (it’s a sweeper thrown roughly 20% of the time against opposite-handed batters that doesn’t normally work). You may have learned by now that changeups are crucial for LHP and Sears has been struggling to get his going. The pitch was thrown roughly 25% of the time against RHB, however failed to return strikes, let alone whiffs. With the likes of Skubal returning a 25%+ SwStr rate on his, seeing Sears’ 8.8% SwStr Rate on his changeup is simply horrifying. That said, it makes a clear path to becoming something legit and I’ll be eyeing Sears in the spring, hoping he’s taken a step forward nailing that pitch against RHB – it cannot continue with a 99th percentile y-mLoc. Nope nope nope, can’t do that. There is serious potential if he gets it going.
| IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | H/9 | ICR% | CSW% | PLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 182.0 | 11-7 | 3.91 | 1.24 | 21.2% | 7.90% | 8.2 | 35.1% | 25.7% | 5.1 |
| 2025 PL Projection | 168.0 | 11-8 | 4.20 | 1.27 | 20.8% | 7.5% | 8.0 | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 23.6% | 96.1 | 15.8% | 14.8% | 30.6% | 71.8% | 33.3% | 4.83 |
| Sinker | 34.1% | 95.6 | 5.9% | 15.3% | 21.1% | 71.3% | 30.5% | 5.20 |
| Sweeper | 21.1% | 85.2 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 33.1% | 56.1% | 32.4% | 5.59 |
| Cutter | 7.9% | 92.0 | 10.9% | 27.3% | 38.2% | 62.7% | 23.1% | 5.01 |
| Changeup | 3.6% | 85.2 | 4.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 52.0% | 25.0% | 4.87 |
| Slider | 9.8% | 87.0 | 8.8% | 15.3% | 24.1% | 51.1% | 39.1% | 5.27 |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 46.7% | 96.2 | 11.1% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 69.6% | 38.8% | 5.00 |
| Sinker | 15.9% | 95.6 | 8.0% | 17.7% | 25.7% | 66.2% | 42.6% | 4.89 |
| Sweeper | 13.7% | 85.2 | 12.3% | 21.6% | 33.8% | 64.7% | 23.3% | 5.60 |
| Cutter | 8.2% | 93.2 | 9.0% | 9.8% | 18.9% | 57.4% | 43.3% | 4.86 |
| Changeup | 11.2% | 86.4 | 10.2% | 10.8% | 21.0% | 57.5% | 38.9% | 4.73 |
| Slider | 4.2% | 86.3 | 14.5% | 19.4% | 33.9% | 53.2% | 50.0% | 5.10 |
| Pitch Type | MPH | Ext | iHB | iVB | VAA | HAVAA | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 96.2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 15.2 | -4.7 | 0.8 | 5.00 |
| Sinker | 95.6 | 6.4 | 15.3 | 10.6 | -5.7 | 0.7 | 4.89 |
| Sweeper | 85.2 | 6.3 | -15.8 | 0.6 | -7.5 | -0.7 | 5.60 |
| Cutter | 93.2 | 6.4 | -0.8 | 7.2 | -5.9 | 0.1 | 4.86 |
| Changeup | 86.4 | 6.6 | 14.3 | 5.6 | -7.0 | 0.0 | 4.73 |
| Slider | 86.3 | 6.4 | -8.1 | -2.7 | -8.1 | -0.8 | 5.10 |
It was a weird time watching Severino transition from the textbook four-seamer arsenal (powerful heater up, slider and changeup down) to a sinker/sweeper vs RHB and a whole lot of “Uhhhh” against LHB. The former combo was incredibly effective as he jammed RHB constantly with sinkers to return a near 40% O-Swing, allowing his four-seamer to overperform away for a 6% SwStr rate and 72% strike rate despite a horrible 4.83 PLV (read: Poor shape and made better by the sinker/sweeper). The breaker was saved more as the two-strike offering and excelled with a 26% putaway rate, while reducing damage when hit into play.
There are concerns about the stark arm-angle difference of the sweeper and four-seamer that may be more apparent across another season, while the efficacy of the sweeper earning strikeouts may fall and Severino’s sinker precision could take a step back. These possible regressions would put more weight on his LHB approach, which needs heavy refinement.
Sinkers and sweepers are traditionally worse against opposite-handed batters and while the latter had far more success than expected (23% ICR?!), it was featured under 15% of the time. The four-seamer was the focus and it performed admirably, but not exceptionally, while the changeup, cutter, sinker, and slider all failed to be a proper complement. Severino needs the changeup or cutter to improve in 2025 or it will be a rough time.
Volume will be on Severino’s side and it’s certainly possible he finds success against RHB for a second year in a row. There are signs for decline, though, and his struggles against LHB are likely to be replicated in a questionable team environment. You should be chasing something else in your 12-teamers (even if you are tempted to stream opening weekend against the Mariners…) while I can see him as a back-end option in 15-teamers.
Quick Take: The sinker/sweeper could repeat for success against RHB, though his struggles against LHB are likely sticking for another year. The overall sum isn’t elite if all goes well with Severino’s biggest draw coming from reliable starts every five days with a handful of strikeouts and average Win potential.
| IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | H/9 | ICR% | CSW% | PLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33.0 | 2-2 | 3.27 | 1.36 | 26.1% | 7.7% | 9.3 | 46.2% | 29.9% | 4.98 |
| 2025 PL Projection | 110.0 | 4-1 | 3.73 | 1.15 | 25.2% | 7.4% | 7.8 | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 42.1% | 89.8 | 6.3% | 18.5% | 24.9% | 59.5% | 58.6% | 4.5 |
| Changeup | 36.3% | 79.5 | 24.9% | 7.3% | 32.2% | 65.0% | 37.8% | 5.31 |
| Slider | 17.0% | 82.7 | 9.6% | 22.9% | 32.5% | 69.9% | 33.3% | 5.24 |
| Sweeper | 1.2% | 78.3 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% | – | 5.55 |
| Cutter | 2.7% | 85.3 | 7.7% | 15.4% | 23.1% | 30.8% | – | 4.59 |
| Sinker | 0.6% | 88.4 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | – | 4.44 |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 41.0% | 90.3 | 15.6% | 21.9% | 37.5% | 90.6% | 50.0% | 4.95 |
| Changeup | 2.6% | 80.7 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | – | 6.79 |
| Slider | 38.5% | 83.8 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 70.0% | 57.1% | 5.38 |
| Sweeper | 18.0% | 78.5 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 35.7% | 50.0% | – | 5.61 |
| Cutter | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sinker | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | MPH | Ext | iHB | iVB | VAA | HAVAA | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 89.9 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 15.8 | -4.7 | 0.6 | 4.56 |
| Changeup | 79.6 | 6.3 | 14.1 | 1.6 | -8.7 | -1.3 | 5.33 |
| Slider | 83.0 | 6.3 | -5.1 | 1.1 | -7.6 | -1.2 | 5.28 |
| Sweeper | 78.5 | 6.1 | -11.5 | 4.0 | -8.2 | -1.1 | 5.59 |
| Cutter | 85.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 7.2 | -5.5 | -0.8 | 4.59 |
| Sinker | 88.4 | 6.4 | 12.1 | 13.5 | -5.4 | 0.5 | 4.44 |
Springs’ changeup is still fantastic with a 15″ drop relative to his four-seamer, destroying RHB with ease, especially when he keeps it down. The heater is a susceptible pitch, though, sitting roughly 90/91 mph with decent vert that may be diminished outside Tropicana Field. The one-two punch is supplemented by a slider that effectively lands back-door for called strikes and it lays the ground-work for potential strikeout explosions when the slowball is cooking and his four-seamer stays away from the heart of the plate.
The bigger question has been against LHB, where Springs is still working on his breakers. The four-seamer often looks like a meatball, demanding a deadly slider to keep batters from hunting heaters, and Springs has worked on the solution. He returned from TJS last season showcasing an improved slider and a new sweeper (think curve), showing signs of improvement from his 2022 breakout campaign. That said, it’s an awfully small sample size and the heater was still crushed. I have to imagine this is Springs’ biggest focus for 2025.
I would be more interested in Springs’ fantasy value if his four-seamer was a better offering. His command is solid, but starts get decimated quickly with a poorly placed fastball and limits Springs’ ceiling as those blemishes are sure to sprout during the season. Still, even with few innings in 2024, the Athletics are sure to rely on Springs every five days, making for a strong strikeout play and decent Win opportunity (for as long as he’s healthy). With a phenomenal changeup and solid command, Springs should help more than hurt your squads.
Quick Take: It’s one of the better southpaw changeups around and overall strong command that helps mask his terrible four-seamer. It’s possible his slider and sweeper improve to make his moments against LHB digestible, though expect blowups here and there rooted in misplaced heaters. A solid #5 Fantasy SP in 12-teamers as you shouldn’t drop him all season, but elite Top 20 SP potential isn’t there.
| IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | H/9 | ICR% | CSW% | PLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 127.2 | 7-9 | 5.01 | 1.23 | 16.9% | 5.0% | 9.2 | 39.9% | 24.2% | 5.07 |
| 2025 PL Projection | 150 | 7-9 | 4.95 | 1.22 | 19.9% | 6.10% | 8.7 | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 50.6% | 92.5 | 10.9% | 15.5% | 26.4% | 70.4% | 46.2% | 4.82 |
| Sweeper | 30.4% | 78.2 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 24.5% | 69.3% | 26.7% | 5.58 |
| Slider | 12.9% | 81.9 | 14.1% | 14.1% | 28.1% | 78.5% | 48.8% | 5.3 |
| Changeup | 1.2% | 85.3 | 0.0% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 69.2% | 66.7% | 4.73 |
| Sinker | 4.4% | 90.8 | 6.5% | 19.6% | 26.1% | 65.2% | 27.3% | 4.93 |
| Cutter | 0.5% | 86.3 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 80.0% | – | 5.72 |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 52.9% | 92.3 | 8.5% | 11.4% | 19.9% | 68.0% | 37.5% | 4.93 |
| Sweeper | 6.3% | 77.7 | 8.1% | 14.5% | 22.6% | 72.6% | 40.0% | 5.59 |
| Slider | 15.9% | 81.4 | 14.7% | 10.9% | 25.6% | 69.2% | 44.1% | 5.09 |
| Changeup | 21.7% | 84.8 | 9.9% | 17.5% | 27.4% | 62.7% | 48.5% | 5.01 |
| Sinker | 2.3% | 90.9 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 68.2% | 12.5% | 5.39 |
| Cutter | 0.9% | 86.4 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 44.4% | 100.0% | 4.42 |
| Pitch Type | MPH | Ext | iHB | iVB | VAA | HAVAA | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 92.4 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 16 | -4.7 | 0.7 | 4.87 |
| Sweeper | 78.1 | 5.8 | -16.7 | 4.2 | -7.5 | -1.2 | 5.58 |
| Slider | 81.6 | 5.9 | -6.3 | -1 | -8.1 | -1.2 | 5.19 |
| Changeup | 84.8 | 5.9 | 15.4 | 7.5 | -6.7 | -0.3 | 5.00 |
| Sinker | 90.8 | 6.0 | 16.6 | 11.7 | -5.4 | 0.4 | 5.08 |
| Cutter | 86.4 | 6.0 | -4.1 | 5.6 | -6.7 | -0.4 | 4.89 |
I’m not sure I can squint and see Estes as a pitcher to trust for 2025 in any format. His four-seamer leads the way against both LHB and RHB despite its low velocity and poor extension, hoping 16″ of vert at the top of the zone is enough to induce pop-outs – and it succeeds more often than you’d expect at 50% usage against LHB with a 38% ICR last season. Not great, but good enough. Meanwhile, the sweeper was effective enough to RHB to give him a shot, but I believe it made his four-seamer easier to pick up based on a change of arm angles (side of the ball for sweeper, top of the ball for four-seamer), explaining the large ICR splits gap on his heater. At least he throws a ton of strikes and has a long leash, opening the door for 6+ innings? If that’s your jam, cool. I guess.
Mitch Spence (ATH, RHP)
| IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | H/9 | ICR% | CSW% | PLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 151.1 | 8-10 | 4.58 | 1.38 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 9.8 | 36.4% | 25.2% | 5.33 |
| 2025 PL Projection | 145 | 7-7 | 4.13 | 1.28 | 21.3% | 7.3% | 8.7 | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 31.8% | 90.7 | 7.0% | 19.4% | 26.4% | 62.4% | 44.2% | 5.34 |
| Slider | 39.1% | 84.3 | 17.0% | 11.7% | 28.7% | 68.4% | 34.5% | 5.68 |
| Sinker | 24.2% | 91.9 | 6.3% | 7.6% | 13.9% | 53.0% | 25.4% | 4.47 |
| Curveball | 4.9% | 80.7 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 23.4% | 67.2% | 29.4% | 5.5 |
| Changeup | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 48.3% | 90.6 | 9.6% | 14.0% | 23.5% | 65.8% | 32.7% | 5.31 |
| Slider | 25.4% | 84.2 | 12.8% | 20.2% | 33.0% | 74.7% | 44.7% | 5.96 |
| Sinker | 4.2% | 91.4 | 12.2% | 8.2% | 20.4% | 51.0% | 44.4% | 4.6 |
| Curveball | 20.1% | 80.4 | 16.6% | 11.1% | 27.7% | 62.1% | 39.0% | 5.21 |
| Changeup | 2.1% | 88.4 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 50.0% | 83.3% | 4.23 |
| Pitch Type | MPH | Ext | iHB | iVB | VAA | HAVAA | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 90.7 | 6.3 | -3.9 | 4.6 | -6.7 | -0.6 | 5.32 |
| Slider | 84.3 | 6.2 | -15.5 | -2.5 | -8.2 | -1.4 | 5.78 |
| Sinker | 91.8 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | -7.3 | -0.3 | 4.49 |
| Curveball | 80.4 | 6.3 | -11.8 | -16 | -10.8 | -3.1 | 5.28 |
| Changeup | 88.4 | 5.9 | 9.3 | 2.2 | -7.6 | -0.6 | 4.23 |
Think of Graham Ashcraft with six ticks worse velocity + a solid curve against LHB and you have Spence. The cutter works against LHB, struggles against RHB, while the slider is the opposite, thankful for a curveball to operate 20% of the time to help deal with left-handers, albeit the majority of which occur in two-strike counts. The sinker is also akin to Ashcraft in that he struggles to locate the dang thing, adding a ghastly smear to his report card with its sub 50% strike rate against RHB despite 24% usage. Jeeeeez. How do you make Spence a reliable arm? Simple. Figure out how to command the sinker to RHB and throw harder. That probably won’t happen. Yeah, probably not. That said, if he’s at least able to take a step forward in spotting the cutter to RHB, he can continue to flirt with a sub 4.00 ERA without falling under a 20% strikeout rate. It’ll be just his second year in the bigs, don’t rule out a step forward of some fashion.
On The Fringe
J.T. Ginn (ATH, RHP)
| IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | H/9 | ICR% | CSW% | PLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 34 | 1-1 | 4.24 | 1.32 | 20.4% | 6.3% | 9.5 | 41.2% | 28.2% | 5.09 |
| 2025 PL Projection | 141 | 7-8 | 4.36 | 1.28 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 8.6 | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 55.4% | 93.3 | 11.3% | 15.0% | 26.3% | 63.9% | 50.0% | 5.05 |
| Slider | 40.8% | 85.6 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 36.7% | 61.2% | 33.3% | 5.21 |
| Changeup | 2.1% | 88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | – | 5.1 |
| Four-Seamer | 1.7% | 93.8 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 75.0% | – | 4.45 |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 47.3% | 92.5 | 7.7% | 16.9% | 24.6% | 60.8% | 33.3% | 5.04 |
| Slider | 22.2% | 84.9 | 8.2% | 19.7% | 27.9% | 68.9% | 44.4% | 5.55 |
| Changeup | 25.5% | 86.9 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 32.9% | 68.6% | 47.1% | 5.05 |
| Four-Seamer | 5.1% | 91.7 | 7.1% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 21.4% | – | 3.64 |
| Pitch Type | MPH | Ext | iHB | iVB | VAA | HAVAA | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 92.9 | 6.7 | 16.0 | 4.9 | -6.2 | 0.2 | 5.05 |
| Slider | 85.3 | 6.6 | -3.3 | 0.5 | -7.1 | -0.3 | 5.34 |
| Changeup | 87.0 | 6.7 | 15.2 | 1.3 | -7.6 | -0.1 | 5.06 |
| Four-Seamer | 92.2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 11.4 | -4.2 | 0.4 | 3.82 |
He’s a sinker/slider right-hander who somehow had far better contact allowed with the sinker against LHB. The secret? Not chucking the bowling ball down the pipe, instead favoring it up-and-in or down-and-away with surprising consistency. Meanwhile, RHB saw the pitch over the heart of the plate constantly with too few sinkers jamming inside or dropping just under the zone. He should fix that. Yeah, I think he’s trying. Pitching ain’t easy.
The slider was great against RHB, though its 38% putaway rate is laughable, making his 20% strikeout rate likely to fall closer to 15% in 2025 when he becomes far less efficient. To put that in perspective, Glasnow is one of the elite putaway rate masters, and he hovers around 25-30% putaway rates on his pitches. Oh no. Oh no indeed.
I should also mention that the slider isn’t great against LHB, which is pretty standard unless Ginn had the feel to go back-foot under the LHB danger zone. Narrator: He doesn’t. Think of Ginn as a worse Brady Singerand the Athletics may replace him as the season goes on once the sinker fails to replicate its 2024 performance against LHB & the slider regresses against RHB.
Osvaldo Bido (ATH, RHP)
| IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | H/9 | ICR% | CSW% | PLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 63.1 | 5-3 | 3.41 | 1.09 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 6.1 | 28.2% | 27.3% | 4.97 |
| 2025 PL Projection | 120 | 7-6 | 3.92 | 1.24 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 7.8 | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 34.8% | 94.8 | 10.9% | 20.7% | 31.6% | 56.5% | 23.5% | 4.64 |
| Slider | 26.2% | 85.9 | 18.6% | 12.4% | 31.0% | 74.5% | 37.9% | 5.34 |
| Changeup | 1.6% | 88.9 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 44.4% | – | 4.30 |
| Cutter | 20.0% | 87 | 8.1% | 14.4% | 22.5% | 54.1% | 25.0% | 5.00 |
| Sinker | 17.3% | 94.9 | 6.3% | 16.7% | 22.9% | 63.5% | 16.7% | 4.78 |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 44.4% | 94.9 | 13.5% | 13.5% | 26.9% | 62.3% | 33.3% | 4.72 |
| Slider | 15.5% | 85.6 | 12.8% | 15.4% | 28.2% | 75.6% | 45.5% | 5.36 |
| Changeup | 30.3% | 88.9 | 15.1% | 10.5% | 25.7% | 54.6% | 16.0% | 5.13 |
| Cutter | 8.0% | 86.7 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 80.0% | 28.6% | 5.78 |
| Sinker | 1.8% | 95.2 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 44.4% | 50.0% | 5.40 |
| Pitch Type | MPH | Ext | iHB | iVB | VAA | HAVAA | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 94.8 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 15.4 | -4.5 | 1 | 4.68 |
| Slider | 85.8 | 6.2 | -6.0 | 2.9 | -7.2 | -0.6 | 5.35 |
| Changeup | 88.9 | 6.4 | 17.9 | 8.2 | -6.6 | 0.3 | 5.08 |
| Cutter | 86.9 | 6.2 | 0.6 | 5.8 | -7 | -0.1 | 5.20 |
| Sinker | 94.9 | 6.4 | 17.8 | 10.0 | -5.6 | 0.7 | 4.83 |
This is something. Bido’s four-seamer was your quintissential “Oh jeez, oh my, don’t hurt me, I’m just going to hang out over here off the plate or barely on the edge” pitch to both RHB and LHB, favoring glove-side and off the plate to the former, and up-and-away to the latter. It led to an overall 60% strike rate on the pitch, falling to just 57% against RHB. However, it led to stupid low hard contact off the pitch, especially with the cutter getting mixed in and muddying the waters. Throw in a Dancing With The Disco approach with his slider (20%+ usage at 75% strikes!) that also came with whiffability against RHB and Bido was able to have a nice little stretch of games where batters weren’t passive enough and he hit his spots when he needed to.
That is not a way to live throughout a full season, sadly. The four-seamer on its own is far from impressive and I sincerely question his command over the long haul. It’s a pedestrian fastball with an effective slider and volatile cutter. If he leans harder on the slider (it does get crushed more than ideal given its frequent “whatever” approach over the plate) , improves the cutter, and keeps avoiding destruction off the fastball, there’s a path to sustainable. That’s more IFs than an app’s source code, sadly, and I have little interest.
Brady Basso (ATH, LHP)
| IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | H/9 | ICR% | CSW% | PLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22.1 | 1-1 | 4.03 | 1.25 | 20.4% | 5.4% | 9.3 | 40.6% | 28.6% | 5.09 |
| 2025 PL Projection | 100 | 6-5 | 4.23 | 1.26 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 8.7 | – | – | – |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 50.4% | 92.1 | 6.3% | 18.9% | 25.2% | 68.5% | 50.0% | 4.92 |
| Curveball | 20.2% | 76.3 | 17.6% | 21.6% | 39.2% | 64.7% | 50.0% | 5.29 |
| Cutter | 11.9% | 88.1 | 6.7% | 16.7% | 23.3% | 46.7% | 40.0% | 5.26 |
| Changeup | 17.1% | 86.4 | 11.6% | 9.3% | 20.9% | 60.5% | 25.0% | 4.81 |
| Sinker | 0.4% | 92.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | – | 4.36 |
| Pitch Type | Usage | MPH | SwStr% | CS% | CSW | Str% | ICR | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 37.8% | 92.2 | 16.2% | 18.9% | 35.1% | 78.4% | 25.0% | 5.3 |
| Curveball | 21.4% | 76.5 | 4.8% | 19.0% | 23.8% | 38.1% | 33.3% | 4.73 |
| Cutter | 33.7% | 88.1 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 36.4% | 69.7% | 42.9% | 5.65 |
| Changeup | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sinker | 7.1% | 92.0 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 42.9% | – | 5.01 |
| Pitch Type | MPH | Ext | iHB | iVB | VAA | HAVAA | PLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seamer | 92.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 15.0 | -5.7 | 0 | 5.01 |
| Curveball | 76.4 | 6.5 | -2.6 | -16.6 | -11.5 | -3.7 | 5.13 |
| Cutter | 88.1 | 6.4 | -3.6 | 7.1 | -7.1 | -0.8 | 5.47 |
| Changeup | 86.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 12.7 | -7.3 | 0 | 4.81 |
| Sinker | 92.0 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 11.5 | -7 | 0.3 | 4.93 |
Basso isn’t a finished product yet. The southpaw with a super high release point makes for a Zito-esque curve, opening the door for strikeouts and whiffs to RHB, while the cutter has success nailing the outside edge to LHB, but that’s where his glaze ends. His 92-93 mph four-seamer gets pummeled by RHB as he elects to stay upstairs with an absurdly steep attack angle, and I’m not sure there’s a great solution for the pitch as he doesn’t get the traditional bump in iVB for the high arm angle featured by his contemporaries. The cutter should work against RHB if he can nail the same consistency it featured against LHB, but the mental adjustment of jamming batters hasn’t been conquered quite yet and may take some time.
I’m curious what we see in Year Two of Tread Basso (I actually don’t know if he went to Tread. I hope he did) and if he can find a way to get strikes with pitches other than his heater. The curve has legit plus plus potential akin to peak Drew Smylyor Drew Pomeranz, keeping hope alive for productive frames in the future.
Names To Know
Hogan Harris (ATH, LHP)
It’s all just…not the worst. An awfully pedestrian four-seamer at 92/93 from the left side, a changeup that doesn’t miss bats against RHB but induces plenty of weak contact as he rarely misses terribly in the zone with the offering, and a pair of breakers to help deal with LHB that generally avoid the heart of the plate. I can see the Athletics turning to Harris when they need a spot starter instead of routinely gifting him the daily pearl, and the potential here is a middling streaming option on a desperate Sunday, with highly unlikely peak of a Vargas Rule summer.
Luis Medina (ATH, RHP)
Medina will likely miss all of 2025 after getting TJS in August of 2024. But hey, let’s not forget who the fella is in the meantime. Medina throws 96 mph and can push it toward 100 mph, but the shape is blegh. Low extension, low vert, steep attack angle. It all makes for a 6% SwStr rate on his four-seamer in both 2023 and 2024, and he’s fortunate for his sinker to return solid ICR marks against RHB + carrying a slider that has returned excellent SwStr numbers and led the way…when he’s in a groove. He’s far too volatile and his lack of control merged with poor four-seamer marks makes me concerned long term, and that’s ignoring his heavy reliance on changeups and curves that he can’t command.
Ken Waldichuk (ATH, LHP)
Waldichuk underwent TJS in May of 2024, suggesting a possible return post-ASB, and you won’t care about it for fantasy, but there are interesting aspects of Waldichuk that make for a foundation in future years. It all comes down his seven feet of extension at 94+ mph and decent HAVAA with meh iVB, creating a foundation for high heaters + changeups underneath. He had some success with the approach before it came to an abrupt end in 2024 and I wonder if a hard reset with his mechanics can polish his changeup feel (and four-seamer feel, for that matter) to prevent so many wasted pitches armside.
There is a path to fantasy relevance here, monitor if he’ll actually take that step forward with his precision.
Relevant Prospects
Luis Morales (ATH, RHP)
He’ll be just 22 years old for most of the 2025 season and just made 22 starts in A+ ball, creating an outside chance he’ll get the jump to the majors after time in Double-A in the year ahead. He throws hard in the mid-to-upper 90s with a curveball and a noticeable lack of polish on his ability to orchestrate an at-bat. I’d be highly skeptical of Morales getting the call and consistently producing, with the Shag Rug very much showcasing itself often. The limited reports and data illuminate a young arm desperately needing refinement.
Jack Perkins (ATH, RHP)
He throws mid-90s with his secondaries taking more of a backseat to the four-seamer. Control is a major concern given 11%+ walk rates in both 2023 and 2024 across Single-A and Double-A and sadly, I don’t have proper data to tell you how great his four-seamer or breakers truly are. Pay attention to the walk rates and metrics via the PL Pro Live Data app when he hits Triple-A this year and you may score a legit sleeper when he gets the call. If the control isn’t there, though, you’re best avoiding him completely.
Mason Barnett (ATH, RHP)
He’s near 94 mph with his heater with a big hook and a more middling slider and I’m curious how much extension and vert he gets with the heater. He has better control than Perkins and is seemingly more polished around the arsenal, though he lacks Perkins’ explosive velocity at 97+. I’m excited to see more data from him when he arrives in Triple-A, as he already looks ready to perform better than a few other options for the Athletics heading into the year with high strikeout rates hovering 30% through the minors while keeping the walk rate below 10% in Double-A.
Gunnar Hoglund (ATH, RHP)
A former first round pick by the Jays in 2021, Hoglund hasn’t added velocity in three years, though his seven feet of extension allows for success at 92 mph if he has the secondaries to support it. The curve is Da Belle of Da Ball with a 5.14 PLV in Triple-A this year and it seems as if he commands the pitch well with a four-seamer high and slider (really a cutter) over the plate for strikes (let’s ignore the blegh changeup to LHB). I don’t think it’s quite enough for the right-hander to become relevant quickly, but there is room for Hoglund’s command to become a streamer here and there if he gets regular starts.
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