To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
Expected Starters
Sandy Alcantara (MIA, RHP)
Yes, I still have a Sandy Crush and so should you. I gave my shirt to my partner. Smart. That blue will look great on them. The drop in quality from 2022 to 2023 merged with the unknown post-TJS has many hesitant to draft Sandy, and it makes sense. A fall to a 20% strikeout rate across 185 IP in 2023 (not even a full season, if you can believe it) doesn’t scream AGA material, while we can’t expect Sandy to express his signature elite volume in 2025 given his time away from the game at age 29 (Typically we consider 150 IP the cap post-TJS, save for Justin Verlander, but that was an exceptional case of a veteran arm having nothing to lose.).
I didn’t scrutinize Alcantara’s regression heavily this time last year given the heavy likelihood of missing the full season and it’s time we gave it an honest look. The quick answer is simple: His sinker jumped in ICR to RHB, his changeup was more hittable to LHB, and both the slowball and slider were terrible in two-strike counts, dropping to paltry 16% putaway rates against LHB and RHB.
I can’t continue without mention the Marlins infield defense. The dirt was filled with fantastic defenders in 2022, returning the second best OAA at +18 as a team, allowing Alcantara’s 55% groundball rate to convert into easy tosses to first constantly. However, 2023 came with a -24 OAA (27th in MLB), which can explain some of the +2 hits allowed per nine innings from 2022 to 2023 (6.8 to 8.6. Yikes.). What about last year? Did it get better? Uhhh, nah. -28 OAA in 2024 (28th in MLB) and it may be more of the same in 2025.
With that in mind, Alcantara did regress in some areas, too. His sinker didn’t jam RHB as often, allowing for its massive 20% –> 35% ICR jump, though a 20% clip is generally unheard of and never holds for a second season. Failure with his changeup and slider in two-strike counts also led to more hits. After all, instead of strikeouts, at-bats extended and led to more balls in play.
The good news? Sandy’s stuff was the same. Still high velocity with the same pitch shapes across the board and the report in September was he had already hit 99 mph in a bullpen session. It grants the possibility of recovery via converting his two-strike pitches and improving sinker locations, though the lack of expected volume merged with a questionable Marlins defense (Otto Lopez is elite, but Connor Norby and Xavier Edwards are not good defenders) makes me question chasing Sandy at a high price. What may happen is a heavy limitation in April before either getting dealt or getting the green light by May, but at the very least, I highly doubt you’ll get poor production from Alcantara when he does get the pearl.
Quick Take: The Marlins defense and lack of regular volume due to TJS recovery removes Alcantara from his 2022 ceiling. However, changes to his sinker location merged with potential improvements in changeup & slider efficiency in two-strike counts could make for SP #2 production when starting regularly.
Edward Cabrera (MIA, RHP)
Cabrera is the perfect example of a pitcher to take a flier on at the end of your drafts. But his walk rate is terrible! I can’t trust him! Absolutely and there’s a good chance he’s still frustrating and not worth the energy. HOWEVER, Cabrera still has potential and to rule out any chance of him making the tweak to finally locate fastballs decently or even change his approach would be foolish. The upside is far higher than the heavy majority of arms going late and instead of settling for meh, I’d love to go after Cabrera and see what he gives us out of the gate.
What am I looking for exactly? A few things. First, Cabrera has to figure out the four-seamer problem. Yes, he threw more strikes with the pitch in 2024, however they were horribly located either well out of the zone or down the pipe. Throwing a near 50% ICR pitch nearly 30% of the time is baaaad. Either lean into the sinker and figure out how to prevent it from falling off too far arm-side, or simply save heaters for the rare surprise pitch at 15%-20% of the time.
Second, I want the slider to become a much larger focus. The pitch acts like a 90 mph cutter and has had fantastic results against RHB, while it could be a major addition against LHB – Cabrera’s biggest weakness. The slider can cover the four-seamer’s role for both handedness as a legit strike pitch, while going in the opposite direction of his elite changeup.
And finally, the aforementioned changeup. As the hardest “slow”ball in the league, Cabrera’s changeup has been the moneymaker for outs in play, but the offering took a large step back against LHB last season. Despite being the ideal pitch against opposite-handed batters, it fell to a 56% strike rate against LHB with a terrible 11% SwStr rate. Yes, that’s all about consistency and rhythm, which he had in 2023 as a 64% strike rate + 19% SwStr weapon against LHB. Focus on his at-bats against LHB and see if Cabrera finds a groove with the changeup again.
Merging a possible renaissance with the changeup to LHB + an embrace of sliders and rejection of four-seamers may be a lot to ask for a pitcher with a stark walk rate. That said, I personally don’t see the mechanics of a “lost” pitcher in Cabrera and can envision a phenomenal spring that leads into the start of the year. Circle him as a “Welp, let’s see how this goes” option who you can cut early if it’s not there. I just want him to get a full year to figure it all out.
Quick Take: Treat Cabrera like a rental for the start of the year. Cabrera has needed more time to fully develop and he could show signs of improved command out of the gate, with a heavier slider lean and fewer four-seamers. Have him on a short leash, but there is a shockingly realistic possibility of a sub 10% walk rate with a 25-30% strikeout rate here.
Ryan Weathers (MIA, LHP)
I came into this thinking I wouldn’t be all too interested in Weathers and now I’m…kinda in? His changeup improved against RHB with a 20% SwStr rate, while the four-seamer and sinker were spotted well on opposite sides of the plate. Meanwhile, the sinker shows a ton of promise against LHB and it displays a path toward success as a regular starter for the Marlins.
Well, if his breaking ball gets better. It held a 52% strike rate to both LHB and RHB, with the pitch being thrown far too often against the latter and executed poorly against the former. As a changeup-first arm, Weathers needs to figure out his breaker against LHB specifically as the changeup can’t become a 30%+ usage pitch and demand success.
Those are the two areas of focus for Weathers – sinkers against LHB + improved breaker vs. both LHB and RHB. Velocity may come and go (96 mph four-seamers in September, but 94/95 on the sinker – we care more about the sinker), but the focus should be on the approach more than anything. I wonder what we’ll get in camp.
Quick Take: Weathers needs an improved breaking ball and to embrace his sinker against LHB while replicating his success with his four-seamer inside to RHB in the coming year. It’s not out of the question and with a strong changeup to nullify RHB (with room to grow!), Weathers may take full advantage of his security inside the Marlins rotation – especially after losing over 20 pounds this off-season.
Cal Quantrill (MIA, RHP)
UPDATED 2/12/25: The Marlins signed Quantrill to a 1 year, $3.25M deal.
Look who it is, the UnQuantrillfiable himself, hanging out in Miami. This signing makes all the sense for a cheap innings eater without much fun in the arsenal. There was a lovely eight-start run last year where Quantrill had an absurd feel for his splitter (49 whiffs in eight games!) that led to a 2.40 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 48.2 IP, but then the variability of splitters reappeared as Coors boomed across the land I AM UNDEFEATED. Expect Quantrill to start for the club at the end of their rotation for as long as his body lets him, marking a rare streaming option on a desperate Sunday, hoping for that splitter to be on point as he hurls 94 mph sinkers without good locations over the plate and hopes Koufax is there to help.
Quick Take: This take is already too long. Quantrill will accrue volume, runs, walks, hits, and few strikeouts. He sounds great! If he were a hitter. Oh. Reserve Quantrill for a rare stream after showcasing a good feel for his splitter previously.
On The Fringe
Eury Pérez (MIA, RHP)
We love Eury Pérez. We hate injuries. After getting TJS April 8th last year, we shouldn’t expect Pérez to return before July, though that doesn’t mean you should ignore him. He’s a clear case of “When he pitches, it’s quality” and I’m all for stashing him in your H2H leagues throughout the year – it’s him, Strider, and Giolito as the prime stashes in my book (excluding Ohtani SP).
His four-seamer comes in at 97 mph with nearly 7.0 feet of extension (Read: DOPE), iVB and above-average HAVAA. It’s bonkers and I’m still shocked it returned nearly 50% ICR with just a 10% SwStr rate. Maybe it’s because they sat on it? I think you’re right – after all, his slider and curve each returned 20%+ SwStr rate marks without elite movement. And even with that “hittable” fastball, Eury still had a low 7.1 H/9 with solid ratios. He’s a stud in the making and when you’re at the point in your draft when you are staring at HIPSTER and Toby types, I’d grab the injured ace.
Quick Take: Eury will be valuable this year when he returns from TJS, but how much will we actually see? Expect a return around the All-Star Break and a slow build up, creating roughly 10 starts of “full go” before season’s end. It’ll be ace-like quality, though, and he may be a league winner for those in H2H leagues.
Max Meyer (MIA, RHP)
Meyer has a great slider. And that’s it. The four-seamer had one game of earning seven whiffs against Atlanta and failed to hit five otherwise, returning a sub 7% SwStr rate for the year. The changeup failed to return a 50% strike rate. But yes, it’s a great slider and he’s a young arm. I have little faith in his heaters massively improving with its poor shape & extension, making his changeup (or something else?) the only path toward consistent fantasy production. No thanks.
Valente Bellozo (MIA, RHP)
That stretch of four ER across four games was a fun time, but hot dang does his four-seamer/cutter combination lack any sort of pizzaz. Sure, if Bellozo finds another rhythm of locating cutters and four-seamers perfectly, it’s possible he can be a desperate 15-team streamer during the year and toss 5+ innings of decency. Do you really want to trust sub 90 mph heaters with an 8th percentile SwStr rate? Didn’t think so.
Xzavion Curry (MIA, RHP)
Are the Marliuns really going to trot Xzavion out there with any sort of regularity? There are little aspects of Curry that make him interesting – two breakers with 70%+ strike rates and potential for whiffs (at times) + a four-seamer with high iVB and cut action – but the consistency and velocity are lacking and he failed to hit 75 pitches in a game last year (two above 70). He needs to be far different for this to work out, let alone earn enough trust from the Marlins (or maybe a different club?) to get the chance in the first place.
Names To Know
Adam Mazur (MIA, RHP)
Mazur is able to spot his four-seamer upstairs, but that doesn’t mean it’s good. His low extension at 94+ mph with a steep attack angle make it the prime pitch for bombs, leading to a 55% ICR in his rookie year. Yikes. At least the iVB is decent…? Clearly it doesn’t matter. His curve and change are massive works in progress, leaving the slider as the only redeeming factor – a pitch that doesn’t excel in movement but can be spotted well down-and-away to RHB. We need a whole lot more meat on the bone here to chase Mazur. Maybe the Marlins can teach him a better changeup? And velocity? Sure, why not.
Anthony Veneziano (MIA, LHP)
Anthony danced between Kansas City and Miami last year and made 39 starts across the minors in his last two seasons, making him a possible option for 2025. It makes sense to me given his 94/95 mph from the left side (possibly down to 92 and change as a starter), though his heater is easily his weakest asset with terrible extension, low iVB, and a steep attack angle, though there is a touch of horizontal break that can help mask his changeup – a slowball that may become a larger weapon in time. The slider and sweeper are the stabilizers and make Veneziano considerable with whiff potential. If the Marlins can turn Anthony into a 25-30% Changeup arm against RHB with a heavy slider/sweeper focus against LHB, there’s a chance for something – at least far more than Curry, Bellozo, Mazur, and maybe even Meyer – but with such a poor heater, his ceiling is capped. I’m curious how this unfolds.
Braxton Garrett (MIA, LHP)
He’s out for the entire season with UCL revision surgery. Why did you bother? Because you may not have known that! But what should we expect when he returns? Struggles as his valuue comes not from stuff, but from precision. We need to see precise fastballs and cutters glove-side, changeups landing down-and-gloveside like a classy southpaw, and a slider that can land for strikes and silence LHB. Braxton didn’t do that in 2024 and only had a stretch of it in 2022. Don’t expect a swift redemption in 2025.
Relevant Prospects
Thomas White (MIA, LHP)
White’s 2024 came with 96 frames with 120 strikeouts in A/A+ ball, featuring a mid-90s heater from the left side with roughly average shape and extension. His command squeezed more out of the pitch, though it’s rarely an overpowering offering. The breaker and changeup are the ones to watch, with the latter taking time to come together. As he moves into Double-A, I’m curious if the strikeouts can stick around as the fastball will have more difficulty overwhelming hitters. The Marlins could move quickly here given White’s overall pitchability and few options, and I’d be patient. He needs to find a little more firepower before legit relevancy.
Noble Meyer (MIA, RHP)
Like Max, this Meyer has a fantasy slider and…nothing else. The sinker comes in at 95 mph and doesn’t do enough to impress, while the rest of the arsenal is just hanging around for the free coffee. What about the changeup?! Okay fair, there is some promise there, though my understanding is that it isn’t a 25%+ usage offering to mask his mediocre fastball. The slider will turn heads for sure when he arrives (Pitched in A/A+ last year), but I’m not that interested given his middling heater and elevated walk rate (not a shock when it’s a slider focus).
Dax hasn’t stayed healthy during his time in professional ball (TJS in April 2024), though he has a wide arsenal that speaks to a decent starter once he gets the shot. He features a pair of strong breakers with a mid-90s heater, and once getting enough time on the bump, he may form into a back-end of the rotation arm with some strikeout games fueled by the breakers. That said, it’s unlikely he gets the shot this year after showcasing a lack of health for years.
Robby Snelling (MIA, LHP)
Snelling is the one you’ve likely heard about (with Noble) and I’m…not that impressed? His fastball comes in at 92/93 with poor extension and 16-17″ of iVB (solid!) with 1.2 HAVAA that is a little above average. Is that enough for me to buy into him? Not really? The slider is a slow breaker that doesn’t wow me, either, and there needs to be something more from Snelling to get me excited for the upcoming year. Maybe his velocity will return to 94/95 as in previous years and I’m glad he’ll start the year in Triple-A, allowing us to easily monitor his progress.