Every Marlins Starting Pitcher Analyzed For 2025 - PL Pro Early Access

Series Navigation

To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team's rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don't share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y'all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y'all rock.

With PL Pro, you'll get access to these articles, an ad-free experience, access to our 1,000+ member Discord (the best place to take baseball on the internet!) our 2025 player projections infused with PLV (Pitch modeling!), our incredible PLV Apps, including Live PLV data in-season and rolling charts for Process+, and so much more.

Get two free months of PL Pro when signing up yearly with promo code SPBREAKDOWNS - Sign up here.

You can also join me LIVE on playback.tv/pitcherlist throughout the off-season as I craft these articles by watching games together, displaying my research process, and chatting with our community.

Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.

Expected Starters

Sandy Alcantara (MIA, RHP)

2023 Stats Table & 2025 PL Projections

	IP	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	H/9	ICR%	CSW%	PLV
2023	184.2	7-12	4.14	1.21	19.8%	6.3%	8.6	37.5%	28.5%	5.14
2025 PL Projection	196.0	14-9	3.83	1.22	21.5%	6.3%	8.6	-	-	-

Pitch Repertoire Table VS RHB

Pitch Type	Usage	MPH	SwStr%	CS%	CSW	Str%	ICR	PLV
Sinker	38.7%	97.6	6.6%	22.5%	29.0%	73.8%	35.5%	5.43
Changeup	18.8%	91.2	21.3%	4.9%	26.2%	68.4%	38.2%	5.65
Four-Seamer	14.2%	98.1	15.7%	11.9%	27.6%	73.0%	51.2%	4.86
Slider	26.9%	90.1	20.0%	12.9%	32.9%	69.4%	29.9%	5.04
Curveball	1.5%	86.7	5.3%	31.6%	36.8%	78.9%	40.0%	5.24

Pitch Repertoire Table VS LHB

Pitch Type	Usage	MPH	SwStr%	CS%	CSW	Str%	ICR	PLV
Sinker	20.2%	97.7	5.9%	23.0%	28.9%	70.4%	37.1%	4.96
Changeup	35.1%	91.1	15.8%	8.2%	24.0%	63.5%	36.1%	5.02
Four-Seamer	27.7%	97.9	16.5%	9.1%	25.6%	69.8%	39.4%	4.92
Slider	13.9%	89.5	13.1%	26.3%	39.4%	64.1%	52.0%	5.22
Curveball	2.9%	85.9	7.3%	17.1%	24.4%	48.8%	28.6%	4.98

Stuff Metrics

Pitch Type	MPH	Ext	iHB	iVB	VAA	HAVAA	PLV
Sinker	97.6	6.0	18.5	6.5	-6.1	0.3	5.26
Changeup	91.1	6.1	17.2	2.3	-7.4	-0.2	5.22
Four-Seamer	98.0	6.0	12.5	13.0	-4.7	0.6	4.90
Slider	89.9	6.0	-0.5	2.8	-7.3	-0.3	5.11
Curveball	86.1	5.9	-3.6	-4.7	-8.4	-1.3	5.06

Yes, I still have a Sandy Crush and so should you. I gave my shirt to my partner. Smart. That blue will look great on them. The drop in quality from 2022 to 2023 merged with the unknown post-TJS has many hesitant to draft Sandy, and it makes sense. A fall to a 20% strikeout rate across 185 IP in 2023 (not even a full season, if you can believe it) doesn't scream AGA material, while we can't expect Sandy to express his signature elite volume in 2025 given his time away from the game at age 29 (Typically we consider 150 IP the cap post-TJS, save for Justin Verlander, but that was an exceptional case of a veteran arm having nothing to lose.).

I didn't scrutinize Alcantara's regression heavily this time last year given the heavy likelihood of missing the full season and it's time we gave it an honest look. The quick answer is simple: His sinker jumped in ICR to RHB, his changeup was more hittable to LHB, and both the slowball and slider were terrible in two-strike counts, dropping to paltry 16% putaway rates against LHB and RHB.

I can't continue without mention the Marlins infield defense. The dirt was filled with fantastic defenders in 2022, returning the second best OAA at +18 as a team, allowing Alcantara's 55% groundball rate to convert into easy tosses to first constantly. However, 2023 came with a -24 OAA (27th in MLB), which can explain some of the +2 hits allowed per nine innings from 2022 to 2023 (6.8 to 8.6. Yikes.). What about last year? Did it get better? Uhhh, nah. -28 OAA in 2024 (28th in MLB) and it may be more of the same in 2025.

With that in mind, Alcantara did regress in some areas, too. His sinker didn't jam RHB as often, allowing for its massive 20% --> 35% ICR jump, though a 20% clip is generally unheard of and never holds for a second season. Failure with his changeup and slider in two-strike counts also led to more hits. After all, instead of strikeouts, at-bats extended and led to more balls in play.

The good news? Sandy's stuff was the same. Still high velocity with the same pitch shapes across the board and the report in September was he had already hit 99 mph in a bullpen session. It grants the possibility of recovery via converting his two-strike pitches and improving sinker locations, though the lack of expected volume merged with a questionable Marlins defense (Otto Lopez is elite, but Connor Norby and Xavier Edwards are not good defenders) makes me question chasing Sandy at a high price. What may happen is a heavy limitation in April before either getting dealt or getting the green light by May, but at the very least, I highly doubt you'll get poor production from Alcantara when he does get the pearl.

Quick Take: The Marlins defense and lack of regular volume due to TJS recovery removes Alcantara from his 2022 ceiling. However, changes to his sinker location merged with potential improvements in changeup & slider efficiency in two-strike counts could make for SP #2 production when starting regularly.

Edward Cabrera (MIA, RHP)

2024 Stats Table & 2025 PL Projections