To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
Expected Starters
MacKenzie Gore (WSN, LHP)
If Gore were on a different squad, I’d be calling for him to be the breakout arm of the year. Sadly, I have to label him a HIPSTER / PEAS who has all the tools but doesn’t have the command, nor the people around him to help. Let me explain.
The four-seamer’s velocity jump to 96/97 was fantastic in the first three months before falling to 95/96 in July, and while I expect that velocity to return again, Gore’s bigger issue is his location of heaters. Against RHB, its 50% hiLoc should be closer to 60%, while it’s a scatterplot against LHB, creating fewer whiffs than expected for a pitch with elite extension and stellar shape.
The bigger issue may be Gore’s lack of support. RHB saw just 55% strikes on Gore’s changeup, while the slider and curve would appear some days and take a vacation on the next. All three secondaries are legit whiff pitches when executed and suggest an ace breakout when he has proper feel, but managers endured the pain of never knowing when they would show up.
It was worse against LHB, where not one of his secondaries eclipsed a 58% strike rate. Horrific. The slider is the one to truly reprimand as it should be a money maker against same-handed batters and I would imagine the slider piece against LHB and the slowball against RHB are the two main focuses of the off-season.
How much help will the Nationals give Gore to get there? I have my doubts about the pitching development in D.C. (save for Doolittle!) and it’s harder to anticipate growth in 2025. Throw in a team defense that ranked 26th in the majors at -22 OAA and suddenly Gore’s 4th percentile BABIP makes a bit more sense. Oh, and good luck reaching double-digit Wins with that offense.
All of this is to illuminate the uncertainty of Gore’s day-to-day performance. I traditionally rank pitchers who I can’t trust lower than what their numbers are out negatively baking in “Manager Anxiety” and I have no qualms with those who want Gore higher. I see it too. I just wish I could lean into it.
Quick Take: Gore has the stuff for a 30%+ strikeout rate, but the team context weighs him down heavily in both Wins and team defense. His day-to-day volatility is rooted in his lack of consistent secondaries, while the fastball takes a larger dent than it deserves based on its necessity to find strikes. Even with a great April I’d still be cautious to believe in a true 2025 breakout.
Jake Irvin (WSN, RHP)
Remember this whole thing? Through his first eighteen starts, Irvin held a 2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate across 106 frames. Ohhhh right, so why isn’t he ranked higher? Because it was a 6.50 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP after. Ah. That isn’t to say Irvin didn’t deserve the first half success. He added extension to his four-seamer and located it upstairs extremely well, pairing it with a sinker with plenty of horizontal break, though the latter failed to get inside to RHB as much as he should have.
The real hero? His curveball, a pitch that returned a 19% ICR to RHB with 35%+ usage in his glorious stretch, then plummeted to 45%+ ICR to both sides of the plate after. It does open the door for another marvelous stretch of baseball for Irvin should his curveball feel return, though chasing a ratio high and not an overall elite arm isn’t the greatest flier to take. Treat Irvin like a desperate streamer early and you may find yourself holding on longer than expected.
Quick Take: His curveball was incredible in the first half last year, then fell off massively, catalyzing a disappointing conclusion to 2024. He could be sneaky value early if the breaker is in full form once again as his 95 mph four-seamer with elite extension is a solid foundation to stand on.
Mitchell Parker (WSN, LHP)
Parker is your standard “Hey, I’m a lefty without anything special but I’ll throw enough decent strikes.” That makes Parker a wannabe Toby who has some areas where he could take another step. No, it’s not his four-seamer at 92/93 mph with decent marks (unless it gains velo, but that’s for nearly every pitcher), and I’d say that his curve has been squeezed enough to do as much as it can against RHB. It’s not a bad curve, just not one to make them shake in their boots.
The real winner in the arsenal is his slider, a pitch that dominated LHB across 35% usage with a 70%+ strike rate and 25% SwStr rate while boasting a stupid low 27% ICR. In other words, it did everything you’d ever want a pitch to do…and he rarely featured it against RHB. My guess is he tried it a few times, got burned by it, and lost faith in it.
Instead, Parker utilized a splitter to RHB that had its moments, but overall wasn’t consistent enough to be the true nullifier to his four-seamer (What?! An inconsistent splitter?!). I’d love to see that turn into a bigger weapon if he can get the pitch down, though the likely improvement is for the slider to get involved and make a full four-pitch spread to RHB.
It’s certainly possible and I’d be on the lookout for the shift to come, though I wouldn’t get my hopes up. Best to wait and see instead of chasing it, though he’ll get the volume in 15-teamers as a sneaky play.
Quick Take: Parker takes down LHB with a legit slider but struggles to find a consistent blueprint for success against RHB without a stellar heater, curve, or splitter. It’s possible he finds a cure in his sophomore season and with his routine volume, there’s value to be had if we see growth in the spring.
Trevor Williams (WSN, RHP)
Trevor is the perfect example of why having a colorful band of pitches with precision can outweigh a few high stuff pitches thrown straight over the plate. Williams did well to keep all but his four-seamer down-and-in-town (all four of his secondaries held an 80%+ LoLoc!) while the heater danced over the plate at times to keep batters honest. It’s a tough game to play for a full year, relying on getting just enough strikes with the secondaries to prevent batters sitting on the sub 90mph heater over the plate.
It turns Williams into a Vargas Rule at best when he’s in rhythm (if you must), while the overall lack of whiffs mixed with heavy reliance on strong team defense (which the Nationals are not) makes me believe you should remember there are many other fish in the sea.
Quick Take: Don’t rely on Trevor. At all. His secondaries all land below the zone, forcing his 90 mph to get lucky over the heart of the plate to get his outs when batters aren’t chasing. This isn’t what you want.
DJ Herz (WSN, LHP)
Herz had some fun moments in his rookie year and I hope we see more in 2025, though I won’t be the manager holding onto him entering the year. I’m a bit shocked to see Herz’s four-seamer boast a 15%+ SwStr rate against RHB, likely a product of its 91st percentile horizontal break that he abused up-and-away. Still, at 93/94 mph and over 50% usage, I don’t think that’s enough to carry the arsenal as the changeup was wildly inconsistent. The better games you saw from Herz in 2024 were a product of getting that changeup down and missing bats, while the disasters came when the pitch vanished.
Against LHB, the hope is for a southpaw to carry a demoralizing slider, which Herz doesn’t have. Its break looks more like a cutter at a slow 86/87 mph and it was inefficient in two-strike counts, let alone ineffective as an “anytime” breaker with a 40%+ ICR and sub 14% SwStr rate. Not great.
If Herz finds the feel for his slowball while figuring out a better plan of attack for LHB, there’s potential for reliability, even if it’s not at the top of the SP ranks. Given the team context, it’s not a fun gamble to make, especially when early success doesn’t promise longevity – we saw Herz have his change for a few games then lose it constantly during his rookie campaign.
Quick Take: Herz’s four-seamer performed better than expected in 2024, while his change and slider leave a lot to be desired. I’m hesitant to trust he’ll find stability in his arsenal, while an improved slider or new offering to LHB is a must for the season ahead.
On The Fringe
Shinnosuke Ogasawara (WSN, LHP)
Update: The Nationals signed Ogasawara to a two-year $3.5M deal in late January.
The Nationals added Ogasawara to their rotation and I expect him to get a position out of camp, pushing Soroka to the pen as a long-relief depth option. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Ogasawara fanned just 14% of batters last year, a startling clip even with Japan’s lower strikeout rate. His 91-93 mph heater establishes the zone with a curve and change in the mix and I’d imagine Ogasawara as a back-end Toby at best, akin to a Martin Pérez or Wade Miley arm for the Nationals. We’ll have to wait and see.
Quick Take: Ogasawara’s low strikeout rate and simple pitch mix at 91-93 mph suggest a strike-thrower who hopes Koufax will guide him through 5+ frames on a given night. It’s what the Nationals need – Innings – but not what your fantasy teams crave, save for the final spot in an NL-Only that needs any regular starter capable of a Win.
Michael Soroka (WSN, RHP)
This is not the career we anticipated for Soroka after a promising glimpse in 2018 and a glistening rookie campaign as a true future workhorse across 175 IP and a 2.68 ERA at just 22-years-old. After injuries galore and a move to Chicago, Soroka failed to take full advantage of a tumultuous rotation and found himself in the pen (and doing his best to avoid yet another injury). Expect the Nationals to let Soroka fly as much as possible in 2025 and I’d be surprised if Soroka didn’t lean into more approach changes in the season ahead – after all, he was touted as a “veteran” arm at such a young age for his pitchability. Soroka is a tinkerer who could find his command of old.
The slider was a major step forward last year with legit depth that hints at more of a curve than hard gyro, though he struggled to earn the strikes he wanted from the pitch to devastate RHB. In addition, his lack of inside sinkers nor display of his classic command made him far more hittable than ideal.
His lack of consistent changeup made it tough against LHB, as well. The slowball’s elite horizontal break brings potential for the future, though it can be difficult to wield a pitch with such extreme movement. That said, given regular starts for the first time in six years, Soroka has the chance to find his old groove and provide sneaky value in 15-teamers for volume alone at decent-enough ratios. You may even find yourself streaming him in 12-teamers on a desperate Sunday given his expected 90+ pitch leash.
Quick Take: Soroka hasn’t had a chance to blossom since his 2019 season and could have his former command to become a Toby during the year. Look for his slider and changeup strike rates to improve, while the sinker needs to jam RHB more often than its sub 40% inside location in 2024.
Jackson Rutledge (WSN, RHP)
We’ve had a few quick glimpses of Rutledge in 2023 and 2024 and there isn’t a whole lot to get excited about. He’s four-seamer/sinker at 95/96 mph, though the extension is just above six feet (read: poor) and his movement + attack angles grant few favors. He leaned more into his sinker against RHB with its near 80th percentile iVB, though he needs to jam a bit better in the future to generate outs. The slider and cutter show a touch of promise as “yeah, those are pitches” and not your promising 18%+ SwStr rate offerings in the future. If whiffability arrives + the cutter can become the leader against LHB, Rutedledge could be a sneaky Quality Start arm with the sinker getting quick outs against RHB. However, the team offense and defense are not on his side, making him a QS volume play more than anything else.
Quick Take: If Rutledge gets consistent starts, he could be a consistent six-inning arm with sinkers to RHB and cutters + sliders to LHB. However, the strikeout upside is low and without Wins or a strong defense behind him, his 12-teamer value is capped as a rare streaming option.
Names To Know
Josiah Gray (WSN, RHP)
This is to remind y’all that JoJo underwent TJ Internal Brace surgery in late July last year. It could spell a return in the second half instead of a 2026 return (the internal brace is supposed to be quicker than traditional TJS), but Gray is far from an IL stash given his lack of fantasy relevancy for many seasons. Wait and see if his recovery period allowed him to improve his abilities.
Relevant Prospects
Jarlin Susana (WSN, RHP)
The dude throws super hard at triple-digits, but it doesn’t come with a good attack angle or movement but it’s 100+ mph. He’s also just 20 years of age and only pitched in A/A+ ball thus far, making him feel at least a season away as he refines his arsenal and approach against higher caliber hitters in Double-A and above (slider can be filthy in upper-80s as well). However, if the Nationals elect to give Susana a chance this season for whatever reason, just go for it. We see this kind of velocity from a starter once or twice a year and equipped with a whiffable slider is all you really need to go 25%+ strikeouts as a starter.
Cole Henry (WSN, RHP)
We’ve barely seen Henry in the minors after a plethora of injuries (including Thoracic Outlet Surgery. Yikes), but he’s on the 40-man roster, suggesting he could get a faster chance than others when the Nationals need help this season. It’s hard to determine what we’ll get from Henry after showing 95 mph with a lovely curve in the spring last year and I heavily suggest taking a gander once the season starts with our MiLB PLV apps as I wouldn’t be shocked if he takes the leap to Triple-A out of camp. Don’t trust pitchers with two first names, Nick. Yes, I know, great point.
Cade Cavalli (WSN, RHP)
Cade has endured injury after injury – TJS in 2022, then “dead arm” after just three rehab starts in 2024. The hope is for him to have a strong off-season, establish himself in the minors in the first half and make a play for a call up by the end of the year, though it’s awfully unclear what version of Cavalli we’ll see. He wasn’t the most impressive pre-TJS and it seems the reports of his curve and overall prospect pedigree provided helium more than true results. Keep an eye in the spring and our MiLB PLV apps in-season once he hits Triple-A.
Tyler Stuart (WSN, RHP)
He’s a whopping 6’9″ and features a low 80s two-plane breaker that leads to plenty of whiffs, while his heater sits in the low-90s and finds the zone plenty. The question remains if he can develop the change into a legit weapon against LHB, while the fastball needs to be of the Bailey Ober variety at the top of the zone, assuming Stuart has the elite extension his frame suggests. His control makes him a candidate for innings as a starter, though he could transition into a reliever without further growth in his slowball.
Alex Clemmey (WSN, LHP)
It’s hard not to like the mid-90s velocity with a proper pair of breakers, though his control is a major issue at the moment. After pitching in just Single-A in 2024, expect Clemmey to spend all of 2025 in the minors refining his ability to earn strikes. However, the ceiling is here for a legit LHP if he ever reigns them in – the stuff speaks to a starter we hold in 12-teamers…if he’s not a stereotypical left-handed HIPSTER, of course.
Andry Lara (WSN, RHP)
As a member of the 40-man with 92.1 frames of Double-A under his belt, Lara is a clear candidate to get a shot this year for the Nationals. Does that mean you should care? Not really. He may be a Toby at the end of the day, though he didn’t dominate Double-A ball with a low 23% strikeout rate and lack of overwhelming stuff. He has a reliable slider and average fastball and if there’s a third option he can dominate LHB with, you may see some surprise outings across the year.
Travis Sykora (WSN, RHP)
He’s just 20-years-old after getting drafted out of high school in 2023 and unlikely to be seen in 2025, but hot dang do you need to know about him. The #2 prospect in the Nats system, Sykora sits mid-90s and has flirted with 100 mph in the past. He comes with a slider and splitter as well that helped him cruise to a 40% K rate and 21% SwStr rate with a sub 10% walk rate in his sole Single-A season across 85.0 IP. Be aware of this fella. I’m incredibly anxious to get proper data on his arsenal this year.
Jake Bennett (WSN, LHP)
He’s been touted as a high Nationals prospect, but he underwent TJS last season and with so many options, the Nationals have no need to push him for 2025. The ideal here is for Bennett to return with the feel of his change and slider intact and a fastball he can spot effectively to RHB to allow his change to thrive. The very quick look I had gave a sense of a solid southpaw with reliable feel for command and flashes of filth – a sturdy lefty who could be a regular starter. We’ll see what we get when he returns.