To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team's rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don't share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y'all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y'all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm for creating these tables and finding video for all these players.
Expected Starters
MacKenzie Gore (WSN, LHP)
If Gore were on a different squad, I'd be calling for him to be the breakout arm of the year. Sadly, I have to label him a "HIPSTER" / "PEAS" who has all the tools but doesn't have the command, nor the people around him to help. Let me explain.
The four-seamer's velocity jump to 96/97 was fantastic in the first three months before falling to 95/96 in July, and while I expect that velocity to return again, Gore's bigger issue is his location of heaters. Against RHB, its 50% hiLoc should be closer to 60%, while it's a scatterplot against LHB, creating fewer whiffs than expected for a pitch with elite extension and stellar shape.
The bigger issue may be Gore's lack of support. RHB saw just 55% strikes on Gore's changeup, while the slider and curve would appear some days and take a vacation on the next. All three secondaries are legit whiff pitches when executed and suggest an ace breakout when he has proper feel, but managers endured the pain of never knowing when they would show up.
It was worse against LHB, where not one of his secondaries eclipsed a 58% strike rate. Horrific. The slider is the one to truly reprimand as it should be a money maker against same-handed batters and I would imagine the slider piece against LHB and the slowball against RHB are the two main focuses of the off-season.
How much help will the Nationals give Gore to get there? I have my doubts about the pitching development in D.C. (save for Doolittle!) and it's harder to anticipate growth in 2025. Throw in a team defense that ranked 26th in the majors at -22 OAA and suddenly Gore's 4th percentile BABIP makes a bit more sense. Oh, and good luck reaching double-digit Wins with that offense.
All of this is to illuminate the uncertainty of Gore's day-to-day performance. I traditionally rank pitchers who I can't trust lower than what their numbers are out negatively baking in "Manager Anxiety" and I have no qualms with those who want Gore higher. I see it too. I just wish I could lean into it.
Quick Take: Gore has the stuff for a 30%+ strikeout rate, but the team context weighs him down heavily in both Wins and team defense. His day-to-day volatility is rooted in his lack of consistent secondaries, while the fastball takes a larger dent than it deserves based on its necessity to find strikes. Even with a great April I'd still be cautious to believe in a true 2025 breakout.
Jake Irvin (WSN, RHP)
