To prepare my Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2025 article, I thoroughly review every team’s rotation and write the blurbs you see in February. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, but I wanted to give another benefit to those who support us with PL Pro. Y’all are the ones who keep the lights on for us. Y’all rock.
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Huge thanks to Josh Mockensturm and community member Hanzo for creating these tables for all these players.
Expected Starters
Zack Wheeler (PHI, RHP)
Wheeler’s ability to mix his four-seamer and sinker to RHB with precision is the secret to his success. With eight inches of separation in both vertical and horizontal movement, batters can’t pick up if they’re seeing a high four-seamer or a sinker that juts inside at a 71% rate. Outs galore come from the two pitches, with the sweeper improving in 2025 to keep batters from sitting purely on the heaters.
LHB have always been a challenge for Wheeler and oddly enough, it’s still a weak point. The sinker takes a back seat for two-strike counts and is effective for surprise front-hip punchouts, but the four-seamer gets tagged more often due to his cutter acting as the companion, a pitch that lost movement and failed to find strikes over 60% of the time. A new splitter tried to mitigate the damage, but failed in two-strike counts (13% putaway rate. Blegh.) while it barely eclipsed a 50% strike rate. The curve is still there (and questionable) and yes, I’m trying to tell you that there’s even more room to grow for Wheeler if he can improve his cutter or splitter or anything against LHB.
You’re going to get a whole lot of Wins with a 25-30% strikeout rate and stellar ratios. He’s incredibly similar to Skubal, though Wheeler’s weakness to LHB is a glaring, with possible regression in strikeouts on the way. Clearly Top 5 and a leap safer than those outside the Top 10.
Quick Take: The strikeouts may come down a touch, but Wheeler is primed for another 200+ strikeout season with plenty of Wins and great ratios. His four-seamer and sinker combo are as good as it gets in the majors, though I wish we had just one more strong option against LHB. If something cracks, it will come against them.
Aaron Nola (PHI, RHP)
Despite Nola doing some fun things last year – four-seamers sitting upstairs and preventing a ton of hard contact against RHB! Cutters landing just out of the zone! – the main difference I see from 2023 is his LOB rate going from 66% to 79%. Seriously, that’s the difference and I hate that.
Nola’s curveball isn’t the pitch it used to be when he was a near 30% strikeout arm. Its success in two-strike counts has fallen dramatically and given Nola’s changeup decline, the hook has been sat on more frequently by LHB to Nola’s chagrin. There isn’t a great solution outside of that changeup doing better than a 47% strike rate (seriously Nola?!) and while I’d normally say the pitch would jump back up to more respectable levels this season, the pitch has been in decline for years. I’m not encouraged.
The heater approach is interesting, too. Nola’s 92/93 mph sinker command is stellar as he nails called strikes away to RHB and mixes the pitch inside in an effort to jam, but he doesn’t quite get the pitch inside enough and batters collect hits frequently. Against LHB, the sinkers that leak back over the plate trying to surprise at the front hip are also demolished, even if Nola rarely misses down-middle or middle-away. There’s a small margin of error when you’re not throwing 95+.
I don’t see Nola as an Ace. I wish I did, but without a changeup that works and a larger reliance on sinkers that still get hit hard (10 point drop in strike rate on four-seamers due to saving them late), I see Nola as a productive volume arm without the ceiling of a sub 1.10 WHIP and an ERA that will be closer to 4.00 than 3.00. Wins will be there, though, and you’ll be hard-pressed to find another starter with his health track record. There’s more value in deep leagues than shallow and I’m looking for a larger impact play per start for my SP #2.
Quick Take: Nola’s curve and fastball command will keep him valuable for your teams across the year, but the days as a Top 10 SP are likely behind him. He’s a Holly along with many others flirting with a 1.15 WHIP and a strikeout per inning.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI, LHP)
I’ll make this one quick. Sánchez is a southpaw with a fantastic changeup, a sinker/slider that destroys LHB (thank you so much for going inside with the sinker in 2024!) and desperately needs one more pitch to face off against RHB with his sinker getting torched for a 46% ICR + the slider often finds a little too much of the zone.
I have good news for this highly efficient starter primed for 12+ Wins: He’s working on a new pitch that is likely a new version of the cutter he threw three times in his first two games last year…then never again. Hurl that 87/88 mph pitch inside to RHB, then go sinker/changeup away and you’ve got yourself a potential 23%+ strikeout arm who can go seven frames with good ratios. But he had a 1.24 WHIP last year! The fella had a fantastic walk rate, that WHIP was a product of a 9.0 hit-per-nine due to that dang sinker getting punished by RHB. He’s right there y’all. Go get him while people still think he’s a high WHIP, low strikeout arm.
Quick Take: Sánchez has an elite changeup and already takes down LHB. He just needs to figure out a way to get away from his sinker to RHB and I’m expecting an adjustment to come somewhere (maybe a new cutter?) to help Sánchez lower his hit rate and turn into a Holly overnight. At worst, it’s a good Win rate and ERA with a poor WHIP. I’ll take my chances.
Ranger Suárez (PHI, LHP)
Remember when Suárez had a nine-game win streak going in April and May last year? That was cool. His sinker was TOP DOG in that time, destroying LHB inside with the pitch and pairing it with changeups underneath and down for near 30% putaway rates on both. A combo you don’t see a whole lot but Ranger was grooving. RHB were served changeups down and away not as effectively, but still solid, while four-seamers went generally inside and sinkers all over the place. He whipped out the curve over 20% of the time as well to both steal strikes and to finish at-bats and the whole thing was outrageous. The taste of this cuisine was far better than the ingredients swirled in this concoction, but who cared? Ranger was cookin’.
That delicious run lasted sixteen games through June 25th with a 1.83 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate and even on that final start, you could see the wheels start to come off. His next three games returned 18 ER, then an IL stint, and his return in August and September was tough to watch.
It’s abnormal for me to simply spit out high level stats across a date range and mostly call it a day, but that’s truly what Suárez does. He goes on heaters, squeezing the most out of his arsenal until it fizzles and he struggles to get it back. I’m all for drafting Suárez and starting him at the very least for his first start of the year (SP #3 on Sunday = Nats, SP #4 on Monday = Rockie Road) and seeing where he is. If it’s rough, the Dodgers/Atlanta are next and you can move on. If he looks legit, maybe we hold past that.
Quick Take: Sánchez could come out of camp hot and resemble his April ’24 self, though expectations should be low in your drafts. He gives you Win chances at his floor, just be ready to jump ship the moment this looks suspect. You don’t want to be anywhere near his 6.54 ERA and 1.74 WHIP across the final 11 games of 2024.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI, LHP)
There’s a lot to dissect with Luzardo. The move to the Phillies is obviously a positive now that he has an actual chance for more than 10 Wins, though that will depend more on his health than anything else – Luzardo has pitched 101 or more IP just once in his career and while he’ll have every opportunity this year to replicate his IL-free 2023 season, we can’t bank on that entering drafts.
And that’s fine. You won’t be drafting Luzardo in 12-teamers at a spot where you need to get him for the full year, in fact, I’ve seen him going near the last few rounds and that should excite you. Luzardo has all kinds of flaws from a massive strikeout rate drop last year (blame the four-seamer’s inability to get upstairs in two-strike counts. Yes, that’s the only major putaway rate drop from last year), to a slider that makes so many dang mistakes in two-strike counts to RHB that they held a 40%+ ICR across 27% usage, while also dropping to a paltry 52% strike rate to LHB (you know, the batters the pitch is supposed to dominate). Luzardo also saw a drop in velocity to 95 mph from 96/97 mph, which is amplified by a 2nd percentile extension that makes that 95 mph look like 93 mph. No wonder the pitch has so few whiffs.
Those flaws are correctable, though. His heater comes with exceptional horizontal movement (think of it like a sinker) and I believe he’s using it incorrectly. Its failures to RHB come from the pitch gliding from the inside corner back over the plate too frequently, while his approach to LHB is to back-door them for called strikes instead of jamming them inside. Sure, the outside heater helps mask the slider, but at least mix it up a bit more and take advantage of the pitch’s movement. Please.
The changeup is still a great offering against RHB, even if it doesn’t putaway batters as effectively as a well-executed slider. I’m hoping the Phillies direct Luzardo to use it more often against RHB while squashing the slider a bit, and possibly move the four-seamer down-and-away to add a bit more deception. That slowball is arguably Luzardo’s best offering and he needs to squeeze more out of it.
What I like about Luzardo is simple. He has two whiff pitches for 25%+ strikeout ability, has a long leash on a winning team, and we can make a quick decision on him in April, all while not sacrificing a substantial draft pick. Don’t think about the season-long volume or the floor right now – this is a draft pick you generally swap out for a waiver wire add throughout the year. Let’s hope it hits.
Quick Take: Considering the low draft capital needed for Luzardo, I’m very much in on giving this a shot. Luzardo has some needed tweaks to get the most out of his low extension approach – mostly avoiding damage on his four-seamer and slider – while his strikeout upside is very much present. With a high Win chance per start, I love seeing if this breaks right in April as you may have one of the actual sleepers of this year’s draft.
Names To Know
Taijuan Walker (PHI, RHP)
Oh right. You’re still around. Walker’s fastballs are terrible at 91/92 mph and his best offering is an unreliable splitter (Gasp!) that can work against LHB, but gets punished plenty by RHB. The sweeper, cutter, curve, and whatever else he elects to try on a given day are not the dependable companions they need to be – there’s no Samwise here – and I sincerely hope the Phillies aren’t in a position where they need innings from Walker this season. Maybe a spot start here and there until Painter arrives, and I feel for everyone involved. This ain’t it y’all.
Joe Ross (PHI, RHP)
We saw a game or two last year of Ross flexing a legit slider and plenty of called strikes with his sinker, acting like the arm I fell for back in 2015, and I won’t rule out the possibility of him getting by a few games on that breaker alone. Yes, the Huascar Rule is present and unless he finds himself with a long leash inside the rotation and showing more than just that slider (pristine sinker command? Anything else?) you should reserve Ross for extreme streaming moments only.
Kyle Tyler (PHI, RHP)
He’s cutter first and is your standard “Imma throw this pitch with weirder movement than you’re used to, hoping Koufax saves the day and I can go five frames without destroying this game.” That’s a long quote. YOU’RE A LONG QUOTE. I can see the Phillies giving Kyle a moment or two when they are desperate for arms, and I’d be shocked if he became fantasy relevant this year.
Tyler Phillips (PHI, RHP)
Hey, remember that CGSHO he tossed last year against the Guardians? And you may have taken a chance in Seattle in his next start to get burned for 8 ER in 1.2 frames? Times. Those were times. Yep. Welp, Phillies throws a decent sweeper and whole lot of nothing else, which makes me awfully hesitant to care if he shows up again this year without anything improved in his arsenal. The Phillies have an array of these “we need something” pitchers who will see a random start and you can mostly forget about them all.
Koyo Aoyagi (PHI, RHP)
He’s a legit side-armer (with a touch of submarine) who generates grounders (Thanks The Good Phight!) and could be a surprise for five innings of 1 ER ball at some point. While I hope he shocks us all and has some stability when covering for an injured starter (I’d love Philly to go Heyo Koyo!), ignore him in your drafts.
Seth Johnson (PHI, RHP)
Johnson made his debut and was demolished by the Marlins. That’s all we have on him, with a poor 5.8 extension 95 mph four-seamer but some promise on his slider and changeup. Some. Ignore this, too. Let’s move on.
Michael Mercado (PHI, RHP)
Another Philly who saw a few starts last year and could do the same again this year with the team’s lack of depth. He throws strikes with a blegh 95 mph heater, 87/88 mph cutter, and a hard 83 mph curveball, and it’s possible he’s improved since we last saw him, though I’m currently very tepid on turning Mercado into something more. Maybe if the hard curveball sees more action with the cutter landing down more frequently…?
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
Andrew Painter (PHI, RHP)
Everyone loves Painter. He’s incredible! He’s Verlander! His command is pristine, and he has such a deep arsenal! Well, I haven’t had any data on Painter until the AFL and…I didn’t like it? I talked to James Anderson about this at FPAZ and he gave some great insight, mentioning the belief that Painter has a refined arsenal that will likely take a moment to come back by the time we see him arrive around July for Philadelphia (maybe sooner if their rotation crumbles, they have no depth). So fine, I’ll ignore the terrible 6.1 feet of extension with low iVB and a super steep attack angle on his 96 mph fastball for now. Personally, given how long of a wait this is and with a handful of other starters I like more, I’m personally sitting this one out.
Mick Abel (PHI, RHP)
He has a great slider… oh, there was supposed to be more? He only threw said slider 20% of the time in Triple-A last year with far too many blegh heaters and it led to a nightmarish 6.46 ERA with a 1.81 WHIP and 23% strikeout rate in 108.2 IP. Yikes. He did fan nine batters in September that showed a little more potential, only to allow 8 ER in his next and final game. This isn’t what we want it to be.
Jean Cabrera (PHI, RHP)
He’s an interesting arm. He’s mid-90s on the heater with a legit changeup and decent slider who, according to MLB.com’s report, is built to throw harder with more development. I doubt we’ll see him this year, but he already has some time in Double-A and if he’s showcasing a step forward, we may see the Phillies get aggressive with their lack of quality depth.
Moisés Chace (PHI, RHP)
I LOVE Moisés Chace, I just don’t know if we’re going to see him this year. His mechanics are fantastic where he’s centered with proper momentum toward the plate, allowing for far less variance in command than we normally see with young flamethrowers, with a legit four-seamer with ride upstairs and a whiff-heavy slider. I’d be all over Chace in a dynasty league, but for redraft leagues, we may have to wait until 2026. It’s possible we don’t – if Chace gets a long look in the spring + dominates early in April/May, then the Phillies may look at their depth options and say “GET ON UP HERE NOW” and save the team. They really don’t have much else outside of Painter.