SP Roundup Spring Training: 3-1-25 Games

Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers for the Plus Pitch Podcast, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.

I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.

 

Major SP News To Know

 

We got confirmation that Javier Assad will not be ready for opening day. Colin Rea has gotten a fair number of frames and may be the choice with Jordan Wicks still trying to prove himself and Ben Brown failing to showcase a reliable third option.

Gavin Stone revealed the extent of his injury that has him missing all of 2025 – he essentially needed to entirely replace his shoulder. This doesn’t bode well for 2026, either.

 

Site News

We added a few things for PL Pro subscribers!

I made a spreadsheet of all the important fastball velocity trends I’ve seen thus far from SP and shared it inside our Discord. Here it is after Thursday’s games:

We also added this fantastic Movement & Location chart to all pitchers inside our Spring Training Live Data app:

Now it’s super easy to see velo changes, movement changes (extra vert from Rodón!), extension, usage changes, locations, etc. It’s incredible, y’all. Get access via PL Pro at 15% off with code SPRINGISHERE

 

Expected Rotations By Team

 

 

Statcast Games – TV

NYY vs. HOU

LAD vs. SF

AZ vs. COL

SEA vs. CWS

 

Cam Schlittler (NYY) – 2.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 3 K. He’s a four-seamer/sweeper arm, which is not a typical mold for the Yankees. I’m generally cautious with them given general arm angle changes that can be easy to read for RHB and of course the whole “Sweepers are bad against opposite handed batters”. He only threw five pitches to LHB in the end – five four-seamers – and you can ignore this.

Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Velocity climbed back up a bit more since last start and I’d expect it to a bit more for the next few weeks. He’s feeling his hook (nice) and not his cutter, while we didn’t see the slider at all. All fine here.

Carson Seymour (SF) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K. Seymour hurled seventeen 96+ mph sinkers with two sweepers and one changeup. Not the greatest mix for a starter, but that velocity should have you paying attention moving forward.

Tristan Beck (SF) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 K. Cool to see him on the bump, but he’s not going long enough to be in any contention to start for now. Nothing new to report save for more sweepers than usual.

Mason Black (SF) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K. I’m not seeing a starter to wow you in standard leagues. The heater is 93 mph without anything fun and the changeup/sweeper has to do the heavy lifting.

Zac Gallen (AZ) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Velocity is back up to bearable levels from sub 91 mph to 92.4 mph (-1.3 from last year.) and expect it to raise up again next time out. Phew.

Chase Dollander (COL) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K. We got a look at Chase with data! He sat 97/98 while flirting with 100 mph + a curve, cutter, change to back them up. If he were on any other team, I’d love the flat 1.4 HAVAA with that velocity (even with the 12.4″ vert and six feet of extension) and I’d love the whiffability of all three pitches as they each returned at least one whiff here. But alas, the Shag Rug + being on the Rockies has me staying away this year. It’s just too risky.

Emerson Hancock (SEA) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K. You’re the sole backup option right now and hey! That’s 94.7 mph on the four-seamer (+1.4) and 95.5 mph on the sinker (+2.3). You also benefited from throwing just two pitches to a LHB and it still wasn’t all that great. I’m surprised he threw so many four-seamers given his sinker’s excellent 18″ of horizontal movement (just get it more inside, thanks!) and a pair of sliders and sweepers…wait a second. WHERE’S THE CHANGEUP?! That was my favorite pitch of his when he arrived, which should be used against both LHB and RHB, not just saved for LHB. Hmmmmm.

Logan Evans (SEA) – 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 K. Evans is a prospect who is in contention to challenge Hancock as the primary backup starter and I don’t see an arsenal to get too excited about. Always nice to see 95 mph, though I don’t see anything overwhelming otherwise. I think I’m going to pass for now.

Shane Smith (CWS) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Yoooo the dude throws hard. 98.3 mph four-seamers with solid 6.7 extension that sets him up for a hard cutter and GUESS WHAT?! 2/5 whiffs on five 93 mph cutters. YES. I’m surprised he didn’t use it against LHB (mindset is a slider probably, but not at 93!) and would you look at that, I have another crush on a White Sox start. Schultz, Hagen, Burke, Shane…dang that’s a good rotation for the future. And what if Nastrini or Davis or Cannon figure it out fully? If only they spent money on their offense. IF ONLY. I’m not sure exactly why the Brewers let him go in the Rule 5 draft, though that may be due to lower velocity and without anything outside of the heater and cutter, outlining a reliever at the time. Hmmm. Pay attention.

Nick Nastrini (CWS) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K. Nastrini just missed 60% strikes on his four-seamer. BARELY. At least he’s somewhat around the zone with the pitch now, but without absurd vert or velocity and 6.4 extension and 0.9 HAVAA, it’s not a good heater anymore. Sigh. I don’t think this will work out.

 

Statcast Games – No TV

STL vs. WSH

DET vs. PHI

CIN vs. SD

KC vs. CHC

 

Miles Mikolas (STL) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Yep, that’s Mikolas. A little less down in velocity to roughly a tick, as expected.

Gordon Graceffo (STL) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K. After sitting 96 in his first appearance, Graceffo fell down to 94.5 mph here, just one tick higher than last year. Makes me a little less interested now

Sem Robberse (STL) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K. Not seeing a whole lot of intrigue here with Sem outside of a solid sweeper to RHB.

Michael Soroka (WSH) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 3 K. Whoa now. That’s nearly 95 mph (+1.4) on the fourseamer, coming in a little flatter at 1.3 HAVAA and a legit 4/13 whiffs on the slider. He’s Singer-esque with fastball/slider, especially with his rare sinker returning 18-19″ of horizontal movement (just two throw, FWIW, but perfectly spotted to RHB…). Huh. There may be something here and it sure looks like a guy ready to be the #5 for the Nationals. They wouldn’t actually send Herz to Triple-A…right?

Jarlin Susana (WSH) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Susana’s velocity was as advertised at 99.5 mph on average. It’s what we call empty velocity with poor 6.3 extension, 12″ of vert, and an average attack angle, but who cares. 100 mph. The question is if he can throw the heater for strikes and pair it with at least one other legit option. Here? 40% strikes on both 15 four-seamers and 5 sliders. Kid was amped, we get it. We’ll see him in 2026, likely.

Casey Mize (DET) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 2 K. He’s still showing the increased vert at a whopping 18″ on the four-seamer while sitting 96 mph and I love that. It’s the slider that gives me pause. It’s simply not a whiffable pitch (0/10 here), making his splitter the sole deadly option to respect outside the heater. Keep monitoring it, but I’m not seeing a massively different Mize so far save for a fastball that could return back to its 2024 self once May hits.

Keider Montero (DET) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K. After boasting a blegh heater last year, Montero has massively improved the pitch. A flatter 1.3 HAVAA now with +1.8 inches of vert at 17.3″, and over a tick of velocity gain at 95.8 mph. That’ll play if there are pieces around it and the slider and curve could be those offerings. There’s a 17″ horizontal sinker in there, too. Huh. I’m skeptical this holds across more starts and isn’t a small sample of two frames messing things up, but that’s potential I haven’t seen before from Montero. It could deserve the SP #5 spot…

Aaron Nola (PHI) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K. He’s down a tick and a half, but that’s expected for the spring. Weird to see zero curveballs, though. He’s focusing on everything else, sure, but you lose it if you don’t use it. Kinda. Boyd lost his slider for a second when focusing on the changeup, for example.

Brady Singer (CIN) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K. He’s down 1.5 ticks to 90.8, but it’s the spring and he’s secure in the rotation, so I won’t read into it. I like that he’s trying out a cutter to LHB with five thrown here at near 20% usage to LHB, while mixing in a changeup that he can’t quite nail down yet. It’s a work in progress, still.

Nick Martinez (CIN) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 3 K. His arsenal was all around the zone here with 3/7 whiffs on the changeup. Flexing six pitches already, you should feel like this is the same Martinez you know…save for, uh, three extra inches of vert. He was at 20.8″ of iVB here and not at an ultra steep angle. That’s pretty unreal. Just elevate it, okay?

Dylan Cease (SD) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K. We saw FIVE pitches from Cease! Four-seamer and slider, sure. No changeup. One curveball. Four sweepers. six sinkers (all to RHB). Sigh. I’m not against the sinker or sweeper, they are good pitches against RHB, but that’s not his weakness. The slider/four-seamer already destroyed RHB. He’s still two pitch to LHB (okay, one high sweeper, blegh) and the answer is a cutter dangit. ONE DAY.

Cole Ragans (KC) – 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K. Oh no. He barely faced RHB and served them meatballs, while the heater wasn’t located well to RHB as he’s still working on getting his overall feel. Velocity is still at 96 mph, though, and I really wouldn’t read into this given the velocity. SPRING Y’ALL.

Ben Brown (CHC) – 2.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K. I’m searching for a third pitch and we got one! Yeah? Literally one. A changeup down the pipe fouled off by a LHB. Without a shift toward a whiffable heater (still flirting with a 10% SwStr here), I just don’t see a starter. He’s a reliever.

 

No Statcast – TV

BAL vs. PIT

BOS vs. MIN

ATL vs. TOR

CHC vs. CLE

LAA vs. ATH

 

Cade Povich (BAL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K. Yep, he carved em up. It’s lovely to see and I’d expect Povich to be the first option when help is needed.

Paul Skenes (PIT) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K. He’s apparently throwing a cutter now and I love it. And hate we don’t have data.

Thomas Harrington (PIT) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K. He’s still around and that’s fun. He doesn’t do quite enough to get hyped in 12-teamers, sadly, but I want to see more.

Tanner Houck (BOS) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 K. No strikeouts? Give me data and tell me everything is fine.

Bailey Ober (MIN) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K. Seems cool to me.

David Festa (MIN) – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K. I think teams care more about ER and Hits than K/BB, sadly. It may mean this lowers his chance to a rotation spot…? Who knows right now.

Colin Rea (CHC) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K. Oh boy. Counsell loves him some Rea and with Brown not showing a third pitch, Assad, missing opening day, and Wicks acting as a question mark, you may see Rea be the #5 out of the gate. That’s some deep league value right there.

Brad Keller (CHC) – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Oh, you’re here too. Okay.

Joey Cantillo (CLE) – 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 2 K. Oh dear. We saw less extension on Castillo during his last outing and I wonder if there’s something going on. I really hope not.

Kyle Hendricks (LAA) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Once again, the professor nails his syllabus.

José Suarez (LAA) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K. He may get some opportunities this year and I think you can ignore it.

Osvaldo Bido (ATH) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 3 K. All we want to see from Bido is strikes. Three walks does not seem like he threw strikes.

Gunnar Hoglund (ATH) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K. He was super impressive looking at the data last time out and this continues to promote that hype. Keep an eye on Hoglund.

 

No Statcast – No TV

TB vs. NYM

MIL vs. TEX

WSH vs. MIA

 

Shane McClanahan (TB) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 K. McShane! NOT ON TV AND I’M STILL SAD ABOUT IT.

Jacob Waguespack (TB) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K. I’ll continue to wonder if Waguespack gets starts this year and turns into a sleeper option.

Joe Rock (TB) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Rock is kinda cool and look at him go, killing it in his limited time on stage.

Blade Tidwell (NYM) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 5 K. He pitched an immaculate innings and I still wonder if he’s actually this good for the Mets. Sproat is the one who matters.

Dom Hamel (NYM) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 3 K. That’s nice. I don’t see this translating to inseason.

Tobias Myers (MIL) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Hey, don’t forget that he exists.

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 K. At least no walks? I imagine these were a product of hitter counts and batters sitting on heaters.

Kumar Rocker (TEX) – 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Yikes. That’s not the Rocker we want to see. If Leiter’s adjustments are real and Rocker can’t keep it together, then we could see Leiter slot in for a diminished Mahle.

MacKenzie Gore (WSH) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K. Well ain’t that a lovely line. I wish I could believe I’d see it every day and over 2-3 more frames.

Ryan Weathers (MIA) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K. Don’t overlook Weathers. Once we get some data, we can check if he’s changed his approach to get the most out of his arsenal this year. There was clear room for growth you can read up on inside his blurb inside my Top 400 SP and the Marlins Team Breakdown.

 

What To Watch Today On TV

SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotesGet morning updates to EVERY SP via my daily Plus Pitch Podcast AND SP Roundup article on the Pitcher List site.Walker Buehler – New approach? (no data)Jared Jones – GOOD SINKERS?Cristopher Sánchez – Cutter data?!?!Reynaldo López – SL for strikes?

— Nick Pollack (@nickpollack.pitcherlist.com) 2025-03-02T14:56:48.429Z