For those of you in 12-team formats, outfield is the deep. Outfield-eligible players make up 10 of the first 20 spots in my Top 300 hitters, and 22 of the top 50. Sure, you have to start more outfielders than other positions, but even if you start four outfielders in a 12-team league, there’s plenty of talent to go around and even more that will wind up on the wire. There are a plethora of viable strategies for your outfield in shallower formats, so it is the least of your worries as you prep for your draft.
If I had one recommendation for these shallower leagues, it would be to use your outfield to take some of your biggest swings in terms of risk. Some of the top risk/reward plays are found in the outfield (Jackson Chourio, Ronald Acuña Jr., Oneil Cruz, Wyatt Langford, and Mike Trout, to name a few) and if there’s one position you can feel safe about replacing if things don’t work out, it’s outfield.
Those of you who play deeper formats won’t quite have the same luxury. In those leagues, it is imperative that you grab at least two, if not more, of the players in the first four tiers to ensure you have locked in talent and playing time. It is difficult to stay competitive in deeper leagues when you’re platooning more than one of your five outfielders, especially if it’s a weekly format where your ability to align to platoon splits is limited.
Tier 1
1. Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) — Judge is obviously a powerhouse, and I wouldn’t begrudge you if he was at the top of your personal rankings over Ohtani (even if I disagree). He had two rough slumps: one in April and another in the first half of September, and both were due to high groundball rates (and to a lesser extent, a lot of strikeouts) that were quickly corrected. Sure, they were ugly, but anyone who doubts Judge’s ability to correct course and be the best pure hitter in baseball for extended stretches is out of their mind.
Oh, and for what it’s worth, the loss of Soto might chop a handful of RBI off his totals, but after hitting 144 in 2024 he had plenty to spare without losing any real value. The Yankees offense should be quite good when all is said and done and Judge will be at the heart of it.
Tier 2
2. Juan Soto (OF, NYM) — What changes with Soto being a Met for the next million 15 years? Well, very little in terms of what we can expect from him. Soto will keep being an absolute monster at the dish with incredible plate discipline, 35 home run pop, a ton of counting stats, and a handful of steals.
While the Mets don’t have an Aaron Judge to pair with Soto behind him, they DO have Francisco Lindor ahead of him (a massive improvement over the Yankees’ rotation of leadoff guys), which should help Soto make up for some of the lost runs scored through RBI.
3. Kyle Tucker (OF, CHC) — Tucker was on absolute fire before going down with what seemed like a never-ending leg injury. He had 19 home runs and 10 steals in 60 games (including the game where he went down with the injury) with more walks than strikeouts and a hefty 176 wRC+. While he took days off following his return in September, he still looked like an absolute stud, slashing .365/.453/.587 with four home runs in his last 18 games.
While an 18-game sample wouldn’t normally command much attention, this one is valuable because it helps us feel a lot more comfortable with Tucker’s overall health and the potential repeatability of the surge we saw last season. I don’t normally project career highs for players with a track record, but the incredibly high floor plus the gains in plate discipline and fly ball rate suggest the Kyle Tucker we got a glimpse of in 2024 is coming back in 2025.
As for the move to Wrigley, I suppose we could see a couple of balls that would have left Minute Maid turn into doubles, but the impact of the park change isn’t enough to alter how I view his floor or upside in 2025. The team context is more important (and more interesting) as the Cubs and Astros scored almost the same number of runs in 2024, albeit with very different strategies. The Cubs were (and likely will be) MUCH more aggressive on the basepaths than Houston, and Tucker seems likely to slot into the two-hole of the lineup. I think the stolen base floor is a little higher in Chicago than it was in Houston, and the counting stats should be at least as good as they were in the past and possibly even better, depending on what other moves the Cubs make.
4. Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU) — Make it four consecutive seasons with over 30 home runs and 85 RBI. The counting stats were a bit low for Yordan, though that’s largely due to the baffling lack of offense to start the year in 2024 (this dude had 30 hits and just four RBI in May). If we knew he’d play 150 games, I think he’d be at least three spots higher, if not more. He’s just that good when he’s on the field.
Fun fact: Yordan’s worst 50-game wRC+ of his career is 114, meaning at his absolute worst, he’s still 14% better than the MLB average.
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF, SDP) — Performance-wise, there are no doubts about Tatis. While we still didn’t see the same bombastic performance we saw in 2021, Tatis hit the ball extremely hard, and in his 102 healthy games, he showed 30-35 home run power and the speed to steal 15-20 bags given the opportunity. He also maintained a strong 21.9% strikeout rate on his way to a .276 batting average.
Of course, injuries are a significant concern here. Tatis missed 60 games in 2024 and has been injured for at least 20 games in each of the last four seasons (technically, some of that missed time comes from an 80-game suspension from 2022-2023, but he was also recovering from a wrist injury at the time and would have missed significant time without the suspension). The one bright spot on the injury front is that the time he missed in 2024 did not seem to impact his performance. As you can see in the chart below, Tatis returned just as strong as he was before the injury in every respect.
The 162-game upside for Tatis is that of a top-five fantasy hitter who gives you juice in all five categories. Notably, when he missed over 20 games in 2023, he still finished as a top-35 hitter, and his ridiculous 2021 led to him finishing as the sixth-best hitter despite missing over 30 games. I am all for going after the upside in 12-team formats, especially if he slips to the start of the second round in your draft. If you have to roster five outfielders, I could see Tatis ranked as high as tenth (which is where I had him originally until I talked myself into two of the three top first basemen).
6. Mookie Betts (2B/SS/OF, LAD) — Mookie missed most of the summer after being hit on the hand with a 98-mph fastball, but when healthy, he posted a 141 wRC+. The power we saw in 2022 and 2023 never quite kicked in, though he was still on roughly a 25-home run pace. It’s worth noting that Mookie’s power often comes in extreme spikes followed by extended periods of being above-average (see below). With time and health, I think at least one or two of those extreme spikes would materialize and get him to 30+ home runs with those huge counting stat totals and fantastic ratios. Regardless, he is the top dog at second base by a country mile.
Tier 3
7. Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI) — It was a tale of two halves for Carroll, who was cut by more than a few 12-team managers due to the fact he hit just two home runs with a .213/.305/.315 line and a 76 wRC+. Those who were able to weather the storm received rich dividends, though, as Carroll notched 37 extra-base hits over his final 76 games of the season from July 1 onward, including 20 home runs and a 139 wRC+.
It’s easy to speculate that the shoulder injury that sapped his power in the latter part of 2023 continued to trouble him in 2024. I don’t normally give too much attention to these theories since we have very little direct feedback from players and teams about this sort of thing, but it is worth noting in the chart below that the steep drop that happens in 2023 begins at the exact same time as the injury.
Regardless of the cause, it was fantastic to see Carroll remind us why he was the top prospect in baseball just two years ago and believe he can threaten 30 home runs or more in a full, healthy season with over 30 home runs and much better ratios than we saw last season. There’s risk for sure, as the injury may not actually explain the slump to the degree I’ve assumed and the D-Backs roster looks a LOT weaker than it did at the end of the season (especially if Eugenio Suárez can’t find that late-season magic), but I’m already pretty close to talking myself into moving him into Tier 2.
8. Julio Rodríguez (OF, SEA) — If you rostered J-Rod in 2024, you know just how bumpy the ride was. Picked in the first few picks of the first round, J-Rod was a rather pedestrian contributor to fantasy lineups, especially with respect to power, as he was slugging just .327 at the end of June. Things started to turn around in July before he went down for three weeks with an injury, but upon his return, he looked a lot more like the Julio Rodríguez we expected back in the spring. He slashed .295/.345/.486 over his final 200 plate appearances with nine home runs and six stolen bases, which over a full season would look something like 34 home runs and 22 steals.
Those extrapolated numbers are still a little short of what we think Julio can be, that being a guy who makes a run at 40 home runs and 40 steals with a boatload of counting stats and strong ratios. Heading into his age-24 season, there’s still plenty of time for J-Rod to become that kind of player on a consistent basis, but that lack of consistency pushes him down a bit, especially if you’ve already taken a gamble or two early on.
9. Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF, ATL) — The consensus top overall pick in 2024 drafts certainly didn’t live up to the extremely lofty expectations we had after his phenomenal 2023. I don’t really need to say much about Acuña’s upside, as the thing that will truly set his value on draft day is the floor.
At this moment, it does not sound like Acuña will be ready for Opening Day and will miss at least the first month of the season, if not slightly longer. For most players, that kind of timeline would push them well outside the top 20, but in the standard format used for these rankings (12 teams, three outfielders, two utility) the replacement level at outfield is incredibly high. That, combined with the extreme talent of Acuña makes it tough to push him too far down.
If you started your draft with a couple of pitchers, players who already carried injury or performance risk, or a player who already loads up the stolen base column, you might consider pushing Acuña down your list a little bit. Ditto if you’re in a deeper format or don’t have an IL spot. However, if you’re in a position to take on some risk, there are few gambles that can pay off as handsomely as a healthy, locked-in Acuña as he has the talent to be a top-five overall fantasy contributor even with the missed time.
10. Jackson Chourio (OF, MIL) — Any rookie who puts up 21 home runs and 22 steals is going to generate excitement, but Chourio generates even more than usual due to how strong he was after a bit of a rocky start. Chourio was hitting just .231/.277/.357 through his first 70 games, though the seven home runs and eight steals were enough to let some managers continue holding for a breakout.
Those who could afford to be patient were paid off handsomely. An uptick in production was preceded by a noticeable drop in strikeout rate, which suggested he was really finding his footing, and sure enough, over his final 78 games, Chourio smashed a line of .306/362/.541 with 14 home runs and 14 steals, which over a full season would be a 30-30 pace.
I realize I’m extrapolating quite a bit in these early ranks, and I don’t necessarily condone that sort of behavior. That being said, Chourio’s pedigree and tools suggested that a 30-30 season was something actually achievable, so to see him carry that kind of line over half of a season is extremely promising. Chourio won’t turn 21 until we’re well into spring training, so to say there’s a risk of volatility is an understatement; however, there’s a true five-category contributor here who could very well be safely inside the top-20 hitters within a month of the season starting.
In a format that uses five outfielders, I would have Chourio at 14 or 15 (leap-frogging Devers, Riley, and Acuña; however, these rankings are for a three-outfield format, and in those scenarios I prefer to grab one of these two third basemen or shoot for the moon on Acuña (though in reality you can probably grab Chourio first and get Acuña on the way back).
11. Brent Rooker (OF, ATH) — I was not silent regarding my skepticism towards Rooker coming into 2024. Rooker’s 30 home runs in 2023 was extremely streaky. It was largely fueled by two extremely hot stretches at the beginning and the end of the season, with a lot of red flags over in the summer plus a ton of strikeouts. The Rooker we saw in 2024, though, was incredibly consistent, posting a wRC+ over 100 in each month of the season and a wRC+ over 140 in four of the six months.
Rooker’s strikeout rate did spike a few times earlier in the season, but from July 1 to the end of the season, he struck out in just 23.6% of his plate appearances, and from that point on, he never had a 20-game strikeout rate above 30%. That’s quite remarkable, as he spent almost all of 2023 with a 20-game rolling strikeout rate above 30%, with many stretches over 40%.
While stronger decision-making certainly played a role in the improvement, our PLV metrics suggest the biggest change was to his contact ability, going from a player in the bottom 10% of the league in 2023 to a player with almost average contact ability. If Rooker continues to make contact at a mostly average clip, he should continue to be a very special hitter for the A’s.
Also, for those who haven’t heard, the move to Sacramento barely improves the offensive environment. Sacramento is a fairly pitcher-friendly park, though I believe the foul territory should be much friendlier (a notable thing for a pull hitter like Rooker).
12. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B/OF, NYY) — The move from Miami to the Bronx is about as good as it gets for a hitter both in terms of hitting environment and general enthusiasm for playing baseball. Jazz was useful in fantasy in Miami, but he was phenomenal as a Yankee. His hard-hit rate as a Yankee was 11.4 points higher than it had been as a Marlin, and he put up better numbers in virtually every relevant category after the move (both offensively and defensively).
With two mostly healthy seasons under his belt and a new lease on his baseball life, Jazz could very well push for 30 home runs and 30 steals with strong counting stats and ratios that won’t hurt you. The injury risk is still quite real, of course, and we still saw spikes in his strikeout rate and dips in performance after the trade, but there’s plenty to be excited about here.
13. Jarren Duran (OF, BOS) — Duran finished as a top-20 hitter in 2024, following up on his fantastic 102-game stretch in 2023. Duran is an excellent contributor in ratios and stolen bases and should continue to be one in 2025. The 21 home runs were really the biggest surprise for Duran, as he only had 13 in his 193 games before the 2024 season and had never been tabbed as having much more than mid-teens power as a prospect.
Most of Duran’s home run pop came in the summer, with seven home runs in June and seven more in August. He only had seven home runs in the other four months combined. I’m not saying the 21 home runs for Duran was a fluke, but I think it represents the top end of his power. I also worry that the 111 runs will be difficult to repeat despite being locked in as a leadoff guy. The Red Sox’s current lineup is relying a lot on players who have yet to show sustained success outside of Rafael Devers, and I struggle to see how this offense can be a top-10 run-scoring team like they were in 2024 (and to be honest, I’m not sure how they pulled it off last year, either).
That said, Duran should still hit mid-to-upper-teens home runs and get about 100 runs scored. It’s hard to call a player a safe bet when they have only played a single full season in the majors, but the skill set is not terribly volatile, and Duran should be at least close to what he was last season.
14. Kyle Schwarber (OF, PHI) — Schwarber is still Schwarber. 2024 was another season of solid decision-making, excellent power, and poor contact. He will strike out nearly 30% of the time due to his contact issues, but he’ll also walk about 15% of the time and hit around 40 home runs with roughly 100 runs and 100 RBI.
Schwarber should be considered a top 15-20 hitter in OBP formats, but in standard leagues, he has two things holding him back: his low batting average and extreme streakiness. Both result from his contact ability combined with his all-or-nothing approach, which focuses on pulling the ball and getting it in the air (both of which are good things, to be clear). The extremes in his profile lead to a rolling chart that looks like an EKG.
For roto players, this variance is fine because as long as you stick with it, the highs will balance out the lows. In head-to-head formats, it gets a little trickier as Schwarber will oscillate between a guy who is dragging your whole team for three matchups and then goes and goes and wins your next matchup almost entirely by himself. Some players don’t want this kind of headache in a weekly league, but for those who can handle the ups and downs, you’ll get an elite power source.
Tier 4
15. Anthony Santander (OF, TOR) — When you’re as strong as Santander, more fly balls will generally be a good thing. Santander kept his fly ball rate above 50% for the majority of the season, and that led the way to his 44 home runs. I don’t expect Santander to get quite that many home runs again in 2025, but 35 seems quite reasonable to go with what will likely be a boatload of counting stats wherever he ends up. Because Santander puts a lot of balls in play, hits from both sides, and plays in a lot of games, his floor is higher than some other power-hitting outfielders with similar profiles.
Santander ultimately signed with the Toronto Blue Jays and looks like he’ll bat right after Vlad Jr., which is a solid situation to be in for the slugger. The lineup he’s coming into isn’t as deep or exciting as the one he left, but Santander should be in a position to get into the triple digits in RBI for a second consecutive year.
This ranking of Santander is considerably higher than where he’s being drafted so far, which may be due to Baseball Savant’s less-than-stellar expected stats. Our Pitcher List expected stats are much more favorable towards Santander, particularly in the power department, and I think Santander is a fantastic value anywhere near his current ADP just before pick 100 (ADP from NFBC drafts as of January 22).
16. Oneil Cruz (SS/OF, PIT) — We finally got a full season from the 6’7″ shortstop, and to be honest, I am stunned by how consistent it was. Cruz made strides in both taking more walks and cutting down strikeouts as the season progressed and was rewarded in the second half with a .277/.357/.464 line. Cruz’s growth, oddly enough, doesn’t come from an improvement in his swing decisions but instead in his contact ability.
Cruz swings the bat extremely hard, with only Giancarlo Stanton posting a higher average bat speed in 2024. That, combined with an improved contact ability, makes Cruz an incredibly dangerous hitter. In his second full season, we could very well see Cruz take another step forward and approach 30 home runs with roughly 20 steals and a .270 batting average. That’s definitely on the high end of his projections, but if you’re going to shoot for the moon, it’s not a bad idea to do it with the 26-year-old physical phenom who has 100th percentile bat speed, a 97th percentile barrel rate, and 88th percentile sprint speed.
That said, if there’s a lot of risk in this profile, as Patrick Fitzgerald points out when discussing possible busts at shortstop. Cruz is one of the more hotly debated players early in the draft, so you’d be wise to figure out which side of the argument you land on prior to draft day.
17. James Wood (OF, WSN) — James Wood was heralded as a big power prospect with surprising athleticism in his 6’7″ frame and who might mature enough at the plate to be a star. Through the ups and downs of his rookie season, Wood showed that he could be just as good as they said. While I could wax poetic about his growth and his improvements in making contact, I think the best thing to do is show you.
Wood was a top-40 hitter in the second half per the FanGraphs Player Rater, and while most projections are more conservative than this ranking, the improvements in making contact combined with his elite potential in decision-making and power have me too excited to play it safe.
18. Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) — At the end of May, Langford was slashing .222/.288/.286 with a single home run and a single stolen base. He showed life as the summer wore on, and thanks to a surge in late June through early July, Wyatt Langford was fantasy’s 149th-best hitter by the All-Star Break, an impressive feat after such a slow start.
Langford came into the season with massive expectations due to his pedigree, and while it took time to see the promise in his bat, Langford certainly showcased what he could do, particularly in September when he hit eight home runs, stole seven bases, and hit a cool .300/.386/.610 in 114 plate appearances. We’re still likely to see a lot of variance in Langford’s performance, considering he’s going into just his second full season and is barely 23 years old, but this is a player with the potential to put together 30 home runs and 30 steals if he can carry even a little bit of his September energy into 2025.
19. Michael Harris II (OF, ATL) — Harris had a rather disappointing start to the season and then missed most of the summer with a hamstring injury, but when he returned, he showed us glimpses of the dynamic athlete we’ve seen in stretches since his debut in 2022. Some of Harris’ inconsistency comes from his poor decision-making at the plate, which improved late in the season but still remained well below average.
The power is the thing I’ll be keeping an eye on in the spring. Harris hit eight home runs in September of 2024, more than he had in any other month of his career. If Harris keeps that ground ball rate consistently below 50%, we could see a player who can get close to 25 home runs with 15 steals or so while hitting north of .280. He’ll start the season in the leadoff role while Acuña returns from his knee injury, and from there, will either move to second or sixth, depending on how he performs. It’s far more likely that he’ll move to sixth, which helps his RBI numbers but hurts his runs scored.
20. Jackson Merrill (OF, SDP) — I was mostly bearish on Merrill’s power all season, and he proved me wrong time and time again. I’d bet against Merrill putting up another month with nine home runs as he did in June (really, it was more like nine home runs in two weeks). However, a path to 25 home runs is still there if he shows power more consistently throughout the season, as he had three separate months with two or fewer home runs (April, June, and August).
In addition to the surprising pop, Merrill brings an incredible hit tool and a fair amount of speed. He spent the vast majority of 2024 hitting in the bottom half of the order in San Diego, but his strong 2024 should elevate him to the heart of a lineup that has plenty to offer at the top. Hitting around Luis Arraez, Tatis, and Machado should help Merrill exceed his run and RBI totals, making him a true five-category contributor next season, albeit one with a slightly lower ceiling than other young guys ahead of him in this tier.
There’s some risk here, mostly with the power and the fact he’s going to be just 21 years old when the season starts, and he’s going into his sophomore season, but the floor should be high enough to justify this rank even if he takes some steps back in a few places.
21. Teoscar Hernández (OF, LAD) — Hernández’s production is streaky, though that’s par for the course with aggressive power hitters who won’t walk much. I expect Teoscar to be much the same player as he was in 2024 in 2025 (and also 2021-2023), with some variance in batting average and stolen bases due to his approach and walk rate.
22. Bryan Reynolds (OF, PIT) — Reynolds, for some reason, remains a Pirate, and as such, he should continue to hit roughly 25 home runs and get somewhere between 80-90 RBI with a .270ish batting average.
Only two things might alter his value: a new team or a new position. The former has been rumored for years but has yet to materialize. The latter has been hinted at this offseason, as the Pirates have really no one on the current roster to cover first base, and also, Reynolds is one of the league’s worst defensive outfielders. I don’t think we can count on this positional eligibility in 2025, but if the Pirates still don’t have a first baseman by spring, this could start to get some legs.
23. Riley Greene (OF, DET) — Riley Greene has struggled to stay healthy in the majors, but I believe his 2024 indicates the type of power and contact we can expect in the big leagues. He finished just inside the top-60 hitters in 2024 despite the missed time, and Greene has done well to make adjustments so far in his career. Greene showed more of a propensity to steal in his first two seasons, but between keeping him healthy and his relatively average speed, I wouldn’t count on more than 10. That all being said, there’s definitely a top-50 bat in here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was inside the top 40 in short order with a hot start.
24. Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC) — If Suzuki stays healthy and in Chicago, we could very well see him surpass his top-40 hitter finish from 2024. Suzuki is a consistent contributor when healthy, hitting .284/.361/.484 over the last two seasons while finally breaking into the double-digits in stolen bases in 2024 to go with 21 home runs.
Suzuki has yet to have a season where he gets to 600 plate appearances (though he’s been fairly close in each of the last two), but the consistent results from his times on the field leave me pretty certain that there could be more to his game hitting third behind newly-acquired Kyle Tucker in Chicago. Of course, Suzuki has been a popular name in trade talks, leaving some uncertainty to add to his mild-ish injury risk.
Those in OBP leagues can bump Suzuki up a little, but he’d still likely be in this tier for me.
25. Lawrence Butler (OF, ATH) — I admittedly knew next to nothing about Lawrence Butler before July, and to be fair, that is because he was hitting at the bottom of the A’s lineup in a platoon and had a .180/.257/.279 line. Then, without warning, everything changed.
In the 50 games he played from the start of July to the end of August, Butler hit 18 home runs, swiped eight bags, notched 87 combined runs and RBI, and had a 1.045 OPS. It was an absolute explosion, and though it fizzled a bit in September, it was a softer landing than I expected as he still hit for average and managed to swipe six bases, though he showed modest power.
Butler probably won’t steal quite as many bases as Doyle and won’t have as friendly of a home ballpark, and he doesn’t have the top prospect pedigree of Langford or Wood, but Butler played his way into the same conversation as those guys with his stellar summer. There was nothing lucky or cheap about Butler’s numbers, and though the counting stats will be hard to come by due to the less-than-stellar supporting cast for the Athletics, 25-27 home runs and close to 20 steals should be there, along with a batting average and OBP that won’t hurt you.
Tier 5
26. Brenton Doyle (OF, COL) — When Brenton Doyle was up, he was up: from the start of July to the end of August, Doyle led all qualified hitters in the National League with a .995 OPS. When Brenton Doyle was down, he was down: he had the seventh-worst OPS in June among qualified National League hitters, and in September, Doyle had the worst wRC+ (-3) in all of baseball (minimum 60 plate appearances).
Colorado’s leadership seems to want to put Doyle in the leadoff role, as the more plate appearances in Coors he can get, the better, and it’s not as though there were going to be a lot of runners on for him if he hit in the middle of the order. The Rockies aren’t a terribly aggressive team on the basepaths, but thanks to the impressive improvement in strikeouts we saw overall in 2024, Doyle should be able to hit .250 or better next season and at least come close to repeating the 23 home runs and 30 steals from his breakout season.
27. Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CHW) — LuBob is the last man standing on Chicago’s South Side, and he’s coming off the worst extended performance we’ve seen from him in his career.
We all know the healthy upside, as we saw it in 2023 when he hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases in 145 games. We did not see it much in 2024, however, as LuBob struggled to pull the ball in the air and was surprisingly passive in the zone.
A player as volatile as Luis Robert Jr. is difficult to rank. A move to a contender (especially one that seems willing to help him refine his batting style) would vault him up these ranks fairly quickly while staying in Chicago would put a hard ceiling on his contributions even if he stays healthy.
In deeper formats, my tendency towards risk aversion would push LuBob further down in these ranks, but in 12-team leagues with only three starting outfielders, taking the gamble on a player who was a top-20 overall hitter in 2023 could be worth the risk.
Of all the players ranked so far, it’s worth noting that this is the one who might have the most movement on your board based on the picks you’ve already made. If you’ve already taken a performance or injury risk up to this point (Albies, Harris, Cruz, Seager, Doyle, etc.), LuBob probably should move down considerably. This rank represents where I’d be interested in Robert if I have mostly played it safe on the hitting side of my roster.
28. Ian Happ (OF, CHC) — Happed turned his low ceiling-high floor combo into its peak performance in 2024, finishing inside the top-45 hitters thanks to 25 home runs, 13 steals, and 175 combined runs and RBI.
Happ is a solid decision-maker who showed ample power at the cost of contact in 2024, which is a tad unusual for him. Regardless of the process, though, he seems to get to his 20-25 home runs and 10-13 stolen bases, and over the last two seasons the counting stats have taken a step forward.
I think 2023 and 2024 were more of a ceiling for Happ, though a high floor would keep him in the top 80 or so hitters as long as he stays healthy. I’ve ranked him on the low side due to what I see as a low ceiling (basically what he was over the last two seasons), though this ranking is actually a bit kinder than early ADPs I’ve seen, surprisingly.
29. Taylor Ward (OF, LAA) — We finally saw a full, if at times frustrating, season of Taylor Ward and witnessed 25 home runs and 75 RBI. Ward’s streakiness was due to his subpar contact ability, as both his decision-making and power were consistently strong in 2024.
Ward has always shown good decision-making skills, though his power and contact abilities have fluctuated. If he finds a way to put those together, those 25 home runs could come with a .275 batting average and more consistent production. Asking for that and health, though, feels a little greedy.
30. Mike Trout (OF, LAA) — Trout has averaged 66.5 games played over the last four years, though he’s slashing .276/.376/.575 when healthy over those four seasons. The risk here isn’t performance; it’s just playing time, and his injury risk is about as high as it gets.
If you get 120-130 games, you’ll get a top-40 hitter with a shot for even higher. If you get fewer than 100, you’ll still be fine in shallow leagues due to the high replacement level, but he won’t return this value. In fact, with Trout, there really isn’t much of a chance he finishes as a mid-tier hitter, as he’ll either be elite and healthy or miss a huge chunk of the season. How you’ve drafted up til now will determine whether Trout can remain on your board.
31. Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, NYY) — Yankee Stadium is the best park for left-handed power within a mile of sea level, making it a perfect fit for the pull-hitting Bellinger to get back to 25 home runs. A move to one of the best offenses in baseball and into one of the friendliest parks for his power is incredible for his fantasy value, and even though Bellinger has been difficult to project from year to year due to his shockingly low hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, a healthy Bellinger should be a solid addition to any fantasy squad.
32. Nick Castellanos (OF, PHI) — It has become incredibly difficult to know what to expect from Nick Castellanos from year to year, especially with respect to power. I’m inclined to believe that the 23 home runs from 2024 are about the right thing to project (not the 34 or 29 from 2021 and 2023 or the 13 from 2022), and that combined with the ample counting stats that should be available batting fourth for the Phillies would make him a top-50 hitter for sure.
Of course, nothing is safe when it comes to projecting Castellanos over the last several seasons, and even his solid 2024 was marked early on by an incredible slump. Through his first 50 games, Casty was hitting .200/.273/.292 with just four home runs and 19 RBI, which sent him to the waiver wire in many standard leagues.
There’s plenty of risk here due to his unpredictable slumps (including one that lasted basically the entire 2022 season), but you won’t find many guys in as sweet a position as Casty at this point in the draft.
33. Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) — Stop if you’ve heard this before in these rankings, but “he’s fantastic when healthy.” Yelich missed a month early on, gave us about two healthy months after that, and then went down for the year.
Early reports on his health aren’t the best, but as of now, we expect him back in the spring. When healthy, Yelich is a force at the top of Milwaukee’s lineup who can hit 20 home runs (though he technically hasn’t done that since 2019) and steal 25-30 bases while scoring 100 runs and putting up a solid batting average and excellent OBP.
If you have the room to take on some injury risk, this is a fantastic place to invest.
34. Randy Arozarena (OF, SEA) — Arozarena finished outside the top 100 batters in 2024 due to a ratio collapse. While he kept up the elevated walk rates we saw in 2023, his .219 batting average and paltry 60 RBI were a tough pill to swallow. Sure, he got to 20 home runs and 20 steals for the fourth consecutive season, but home runs and steals alone aren’t enough in this modern world.
That said, Arozarena showed the underlying ability is still there, especially in June and July when he hit eight home runs, stole nine bases, and slashed .287/.401/.509. If Arozarena can avoid the deep slumps and rebound more quickly in 2025, he could be a bargain in drafts.
35. Steven Kwan (OF, CLE) — We finally got a bit of a power breakout from Kwan that we all knew was possible, but it came at the cost of about 10 stolen bases off what we expected. The two aren’t really related, and there’s no reason Kwan can’t hit 10 home runs and steal 20 bags with a fantastic batting average.
That said, we saw an extended slump from Kwan that I didn’t think was possible with his hit tool and eye at the plate, suggesting the floor is lower than I had expected.
36. Adolis García (OF, TEX) — Adolis accumulated a top-100 hitter season thanks to 25 home runs and 85 RBI. Still, he set career lows in five key statistical categories (runs, home runs, RBI, average, and OBP) and didn’t much resemble the all-world hitter we saw in 2023.
On the bright side, García hit the hardest-hit ball of his career (116.1 mph) and maintained solid barrel and hard-hit rates last season, suggesting there may still be a little left in the tank heading into his age-32 season. García has always struggled with making contact and is a below-average decision-maker, leaving very little margin for error, but if he makes slight improvements to more closely resemble his 2022 profile (there’s no real path to a 2023 repeat, from what I see), another 25 home runs with solid RBI numbers should be in the cards, plus roughly 10 steals and what ought to be a slightly better (though not very good) batting average.
37. Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) — Nimmo is one of the big winners of the Juan Soto deal, as he now looks poised to bat fourth behind Lindor, Soto, and Vientos. Nimmo had never cleared 70 RBI before 2024, and coming into 2025 is a strong bet to clear 100 if he stays in the cleanup spot.
Once upon a time, Nimmo was considered an injury risk, but as we always say, a player isn’t an injury risk until he is. Nimmo has rattled off three consecutive seasons where he’s played in at least 150 games, and we have no reason to suspect the streak will stop there. Nimmo did deal with plantar fasciitis in 2024, though it began in May, and there isn’t really a noticeable change in his production from when that injury started to the end of the season (in fact, his best numbers came in June and July).
The more I think about Nimmo, the more I have slid him up my ranks (he was more than 10 spots lower before I began writing this blurb). The only red flag in his profile is the batting average that sunk last season. It’d be easy to say it was just a BABIP thing, as his .267 BABIP was 51 points below his career .318 mark; however, our PLV metrics (which use Statcast data) put his expected batting average at .233 in large part due to his grounders.
Nimmo rolled over a LOT of ground balls in 2024 and hit .233 on them collectively. In 2022 and 2023, he hit safely over .300 on balls on the ground as he hit them to all fields. If Nimmo continues to hit 91.4% of his ground balls to the pull field or up the middle, his batting average will remain painfully low, and it may move him down the batting order a bit (can’t have your clean-up hitter grounding out all the time, after all).
If Nimmo goes back to what he did in 2022 and 2023, he’s ranked 30-40 spots too low. If he keeps rolling over those grounders and falls in the lineup two or three places, then he’s much too boring, and I’d instead have used this spot on players with more exciting upsides.
38. Dylan Crews (OF, WSN) — Crews should be a threat to hit 20 home runs and steal 25 bases in his first full season in the majors based on talent, though I feel much more confident about the latter than the former. There was plenty to like in Crews’ first 132 plate appearances, namely that the plate discipline was as good as it was in the minor leagues, and he swiped twelve bases in just 31 games.
The question for the soon-to-be 23-year-old center fielder is whether he can show enough power to hit more than 15-17 home runs in a season. Don’t get me wrong, 15-17 home runs would be great, but for Crews to live up to the top-five prospect hype he built up since being drafted in 2023, we likely need to see some combination pulling the ball more and getting the ball in the air. Crews has a tendency to go up the middle or the opposite way when he gets the ball in the air, and while he’s not punch-less, he’s not the type of hitter who can consistently clear the fences in those directions.
39. Spencer Steer (1B/OF, CIN) — Everything looked awesome before the All-Star break. Steer had 15 home runs, 14 steals, 60 RBI, and the world was his oyster. Following the break, things got ugly fast, as he hit .198/.291/.344 with just five home runs and 32 RBI over the final 63 games of the season.
The issue was primarily that the power wholly eroded. Steer’s success was mainly fueled by making good decisions and being a little better than average at contact with merely average power, which doesn’t sound like much. Still, it was plenty for hitting home runs in Great American Ballpark. The rest of the profile remained steady, but the power continued falling apart.
Despite all that, Steer finished as a top-10 first baseman, and he’s shown he can sustain power numbers for extended periods, even if our metrics find the power a bit dubious. The bottom could call out at any moment (and has more than once), and the skills themselves aren’t all that eye-popping, but he’s got enough to succeed in Great American Ballpark, also known as Coors East.
40. Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) — It took some time, but PCA’s bat broke through in 2024 at the start of the second half, and in 50 games from July 19 to September 15, he hit seven home runs, swiped ten bags, and hit a cool .272 with a much-improved strikeout rate of 21.4%.
Crow-Armstrong never showed consistent improvements in decision-making and only briefly flashed an above-average contact ability. However, even flashes can be exciting for a player with PCA’s power and speed combination. The ratios will be erratic, but few players at this stage can hit 15 home runs and swipe 30 bags, and Crow-Armstrong is one of them.
41. Jasson Domínguez (OF, NYY) — Dominguez looks to have been handed the reins to a starting outfield job after spending much time either on the IL or in the minors since his original debut in 2023.
In exactly 100 plate appearances, we’ve seen both the good and the bad in Dominguez. He erupted in his first taste of the big leagues, hitting four home runs in eight games while keeping the strikeouts to a reasonable rate. The Martian’s second trip to the majors was a little rougher, as he hit just .179 in 18 games with two home runs, though he did swipe five bags and walk at a 16.4% clip.
Dominguez shouldn’t have too many issues with strikeouts in 2025 and can probably walk a little more than average, but a high ground ball rate and some turbulence while adjusting to a full season in the majors will likely keep the batting average in the .230-.240 range. That said, 20 home runs and 20 steals are in play if he can stay on the field.
Tier 6
42. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF, ARI) — If you’ve read my work before, you know I struggle with how to rank Lourdes Gurriel Jr. While the final results end up looking just fine (he finished as a top-70 hitter in most non-OBP formats), the path to get there is a lot bumpier than it seems. While his ability to make contact is always present, Gurriel’s decision-making and power swing up and down.
That said, the season-long numbers do come out to something like a top-60-75 hitter most seasons. The inconsistency, limited upside, and injury history (he’ll likely miss 20-30 games this season as he does most seasons) create a potential draft-day bargain, albeit an unexciting one.
43. Lane Thomas (OF, CLE) — At the time of his final game with the Nats on July 28, Lane Thomas had stolen 26 bases in 74 games. Despite missing nearly a month earlier in the season, he had already surpassed his previous season high of 20 and was on his way to a fantastic fantasy season.
Following the trade to Cleveland, Thomas stole just four more bases in 53 games while hitting .209/.267/.390 and striking out 34.8% of the time. Seven home runs in September more or less saved his season with the Guardians, but we enter 2025 having no idea what to expect from Thomas.
Here’s what I do know — Thomas is unlikely to get close to his career high in home runs because those 28 in 2023 came out of nowhere, or stolen bases because he wasn’t that good at it (he converted under 70% of his attempts). Also, he’s more likely to hit in the bottom half of the order than the top half (in reality, he will probably hit fifth or sixth).
That said, the combination of 15-17 home run power and 20-25 stolen bases would be a ton of value at his current ADP range, and it’s probably worth the gamble in shallower formats as there are usually plenty of reasonable replacements in the outfield if it doesn’t work out.
44. Jurickson Profar (OF, ATL) — Profar’s age-31 season was by far the best of his career as he finished inside the top-30 hitters thanks to career highs in plate appearances, home runs, runs scored, RBI, batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage. You know, basically everything.
Profar will be 32 when the season starts and remains without a team. How much do you believe in something resembling a repeat? I’m fine with a projection of 20 home runs and 10 steals with strong plate discipline, but that .280 batting average and .380 OBP were over 50 points higher than any other full season he’s posed, and Profar hadn’t hit 20 home runs since 2019.
Landing in Atlanta is ideal for Profar early in the season while the team waits for Ronald Acuña Jr. to return, as he’ll likely hit near the top of the lineup with an everyday role, but upon Acuña’s return, playing time will likely become more performance-based between him, Jarred Kelenic, and to a much lesser extent, Bryan De La Cruz. I expect Profar to be the best of this group and retain a spot in the lineup, albeit closer to the bottom, but there may be times when Profar takes a seat to allow one of those other guys into the lineup.
45. Heliot Ramos (OF, SFG) — Ramos made waves in the first half of June, swatting eight home runs and driving in 22 runners over just 17 games. The rest of the season was a bit more up and down, though, as that production basically matched Ramos’s entire second half (eight home runs, 26 RBI in 61 games).
We found out Ramos played through some nagging injuries as the season wore on, such as plantar fasciitis and a tight hammy, and it’s possible a full offseason will help him find that early summer version of himself.
It was good to see Ramos mostly keep the strikeout rate under control, with only a few extended stretches of 30% or higher, and as long as he can keep that part of his game in check, Ramos has a shot to work his way back to the middle of the Giants’ batting order and be a top-30 outfielder who can hit 25 home runs and drive in 80-90 runners with a workable batting average. If the strikeout rate spikes or he’s unable to find that power stroke again, he’s more of a replacement-level guy in shallower leagues.
46. Parker Meadows (OF, DET) — After an ugly start to 2024 that saw him sent down to Triple-A and an injury in July, Meadows got a second shot at the center field job in Detroit and did not waste the opportunity. Meadows hit .296/.340/.500 with six home runs and five steals in 47 games after his call-up at the beginning of August, eventually working his way to the leadoff role against right-handed pitching.
Meadows enters 2025 as the presumptive starting centerfielder and the leadoff man for the Tigers against righties (Gleyber may step in against lefties). If Meadows can carry the improvements he made to his swing decisions, and in particular, his approach in two-strike counts (see example below), I think he could keep that job and that spot in the lineup on his way to 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases with ratios that don’t hurt you.
47. Kerry Carpenter (OF, DET) — Injuries again kept Carpenter’s season to under 120 games, but when healthy in 2024, he continued to show that he has the power to hit 30 home runs and the bat skills to hit better than .270. That Kerry Bonds nickname ain’t for nothin’, after all.
If that were the end of the story, Carpenter would be ranked many spots higher. Unfortunately, there are two big elephants in the room we have to stare at when evaluating his game, and those are his struggles against lefties and, as mentioned previously, his struggles to stay healthy.
Over his fairly short career, Carpenter has been flummoxed by same-sided pitching, as he has a 55.2% ground ball rate against them with a .588 OPS in 134 plate appearances. The Tigers haven’t been keen to give him time to make adjustments against them either, opting to let him stay on the bench until the later innings when a left-handed starter is on the mound in the vast majority of cases.
In addition to the playing time concerns that come from a platoon, we also have to contend with the fact that Carpenter has a lengthy injury history. He missed time on the big league roster due to two back injuries (2022 and 2024) and a sprained shoulder (2023). Two of those injuries (2023 and 2024) lasted more than four weeks. If either the platoon or the injuries were the only concern, Carpenter would be a tier or two higher, but the fact we have to worry about both pushes him down.
48. Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) — Cowser hit 24 home runs in his first full season and was especially strong in the second half, putting together a 133 wRC+. I do not doubt that Cowser could hit 30 home runs, even in a tough park like Baltimore, but Cowser does have some wrinkles that cause concern.
Cowser is a pretty average decision-maker, and when you combine that with his major struggles in making contact (see below), it makes you wonder whether Cowser will continue to get time in the heart of the lineup and whether he will get as many opportunities to face left-handed pitching (they gave him fits in 2023).
To be someone you can rely on in fantasy, we will need Cowser to either become much more selective with what he swings at or become much better at connecting when he does swing.
49. Victor Robles (OF, SEA) — It has been a long time since Robles originally burst onto the scene back in the legendary days of the rabbit ball (also known as the 2019 season). He hit 17 home runs, swiped 28 bags, and looked primed to be a power and speed threat for years to come. Of course, it didn’t work out that way and he faded into obscurity until he was designated for assignment by the Nats and wound up in Seattle.
Following the All-Star Break, Robles became a regular at or near the top of the batting order, and that’s when we really started to take notice. Robles wound up hitting .323/.385/.449 in the second half and was an absolute terror on the base paths, swiping 26 bases in 55 games.
Robles is likely to start the year leading off for the Mariners, and if last season’s second half wasn’t a fluke (which I hope it wasn’t but also very well may have been), he could be a guy who hits 10 home runs, steals 40 or more bases, and hits .260 or better. That’s an enormous upside if you need speed, and the only reason it’s available at this point in drafts is because Robles has the dreaded performance risk and injury risk combo that is difficult to take on. His list of injuries is long and varied, and we’ve seen hundreds of bad plate appearances and weakly hit balls during his time with the Nats.
50. George Springer (OF, TOR) — On June 24, George Springer was likely on the majority of competitive 12-team waiver wires. He’d been demoted from the leadoff job and, through 71 games, was hitting .188 with just five home runs and 46 combined runs and RBI.
When all hope seemed lost for the 34-year-old veteran, things turned around almost instantly. Springer hit four home runs in his next three games and a total of 14 over the next 53 games, along with a .262/.338/.530 batting line and 75 combined runs and RBI before fizzling out in September as the performance crashed back to earth, and he found himself sitting on the bench two times a week.
Through all of that turmoil, though, Springer still managed to hit 19 home runs and steal 16 bases while staying mostly healthy for a third consecutive season. Grounders appear to be the culprit for the collapse of his batting average as he had two extended periods of a rate at 55% or worse, and that’s not a recipe for success for anyone, much less a 34-year-old veteran with a long injury history.
As of now, the Jays seem content to give Springer one more go as the leadoff guy in their lineup ahead of Bichette and Vlad Jr., meaning there’s plenty of reason to believe that Springer could put together a season with 20 home runs, 15 steals, 85 runs, and a usable batting average in 2025 as he did in 2022 and 2023. That 53-game stretch was the best we’ve seen Springer in years, so it’s not as though the tank is empty. If the groundball problem comes back, I’ll likely lose interest quickly, but if he keeps that rate closer to 45% than 60%, there’s plenty of fantasy value for Springer to provide.
51. Jorge Soler (OF, LAA) — A slugger with the power to hit 30 home runs who will hit in the top-third of the order should probably rank higher than this, but there are a few red flags that give me pause. The most alarming of these red flags is the major drop in performance on fly balls. Soler slugged 1.032 on fly balls from 2019-2023 and pulled 29.6% of those fly balls, but in 2024, he slugged .769 and pulled just 22.6% of his balls in the air. Those 2024 numbers were only slightly above average in terms of slugging and below league average in terms of pull rate.
In OBP formats, Soler should move up a tier or two due to his high walk rates, in standard leagues he gets knocked for his batting average and durability.
52. Cedric Mullins (OF, BAL) — In NFBC drafts through Christmas day, Mullins had been taken as early as pick 106 (that’s Riley Greene and Christian Yelich territory) and as late as 362 (with guys like Andrew Benintendi and Bryan De La Cruz). That’s a pretty accurate portrayal of the range of outcomes on Mullins’ projections.
On one hand, Mullins finished the season with 18 home runs and 32 steals and was a top-60 hitter in the second half of the season. On the other, Mullins remains buried near the bottom of Baltimore’s lineup and is more likely to fall lower than move up, not to mention that he’s likely to sit against most lefties if the O’s are healthy. He could even lose his role entirely if he struggles and Heston Kjerstad has a breakout.
All that said, I can’t get over Mullins’ fantastic plate discipline down the stretch (12.9% walk rate and 15.8% strikeout rate in the second half), largely due to decision-making improvements against breaking balls (see below). I think this version of Mullins, should he reappear, can be a top-60 hitter or better. There’s a ton of risk, and there are other players in this range who are also brimming with upside (who also happen to be many years younger) but don’t forget about Mullins, especially if he falls quite a bit later than the other hitters in this tier on draft day, which is a distinct possibility.
53. Brendan Donovan (2B/3B/OF, STL) — Donovan’s profile is carried by his contact ability and batting average, but as long as he stays healthy he should find his way to double-digit home runs. As of now, he’s projected to bat fourth for the Cardinals instead of leading off, so he’ll be in a good position to drive in runners despite the limited pop. Donovan isn’t a terribly sexy pick, and his upside is somewhat limited, but ratios and RBI can be tough to find later in the draft and Donovan is here to provide. It’s also worth noting that in Yahoo formats Donovan just barely gets away with third base eligibility thanks to his five starts there last season, adding to his already useful second base and outfield eligibilities.
54. Josh Lowe (OF, TBR) — At some point in 2025, Josh Lowe will likely be rostered in every league, making everyone happy. It’ll last a few weeks or even a few months. Also, in 2025, Josh Lowe will be the most dropped player in the game for a time. That’s just the nature of the beast based on what we saw in 2023 and 2024.
The volatility comes from several sources. The primary source is his limited ability to make contact combined with his above-average swing aggression. That’s a classic recipe for streakiness, as it relies on both batted ball luck and seeing the ball well, neither of which will go his way consistently.
In addition, Lowe hits a lot of fly balls, and the vast majority of them go up the middle or the opposite way, which is where fly balls usually go to die. He pulled just 18.6% of his fly balls in 2024, an improvement from 2023. Fly balls that don’t leave the yard are usually outs, and fly balls up the middle and the opposite way don’t leave the yard that often, and as long as those batted ball trends continue, I expect inconsistent results.
55. Tyler O’Neill (OF, BAL) — O’Neill is coming off a season where he just hit 31 home runs in 113 games (a 162-game pace of over 44 dingers), but he also spent 49 games on the bench or IL, struck out 33.6% of the time, and had three separate months where he hit less than .185.
O’Neill’s high walk rate means he’d probably be one or two tiers higher in an OBP ranking, but in batting average leagues, we have to contend with his .218/.293/.391 line against right-handed pitching since the start of 2022.
O’Neill’s 2021 and 2024 seasons remind us that he has a ton of power and the upside to be a top-60 hitter if he stays healthy for an entire season. The reality, though, is that O’Neill is a flawed player with a checkered past in terms of both health and performance. It’s a classic high-risk, high-reward play, so make of that what you will.
Tier 7
56. Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SFG) — Lee’s 158 plate appearances doesn’t give us enough to draw too many definite conclusions, but it did affirm that Lee will avoid strikeouts and hit for at least a decent batting average. Assuming Lee gets to hit at the top of the lineup for the Giants, he could be a bargain option for runs scored, which is an extremely difficult category to make up in the middle to late rounds. Lee may not clear 10 home runs or stolen bases even if he stays healthy, but 80 runs and a .280 batting average would be very welcome at this stage of the draft.
57. Alec Burleson (1B/OF, STL) — Burleson was a full-time player in 2024, and it led to a top-60 finish among hitters thanks to 21 home runs, plenty of counting stats, and a .269 batting average. So what’s he doing all the way down here? Simply put, Burleson can’t hit same-sided pitching.
In 163 career plate appearances against southpaws, Burleson has a 49 wRC+. For those who don’t use wRC+ with regularity, it means that he was 51% worse than an average player against left-handed pitching. This is despite just a 13.8% strikeout rate against them. Usually, this can be explained by grounders or something, but in this case, it’s just really poorly hit baseballs.
Even in a platoon, Burleson can provide fantasy value thanks to his plus power and contact ability. He’ll likely hit second when he’s in the lineup, and given 500 plate appearances (that’s about 110-120 games, give or take), he could hit another 18-20 home runs with a fair number of runs and RBI and a .270 batting average. Combine that production with his eligibility in both the infield and outfield, and you’ve got yourself a nice piece to a roster.
58. JJ Bleday (OF, ATH) — Bleday has solid plate discipline, 20-23 home run power, and a guaranteed role hitting in the heart of a top-heavy Athletics lineup. He was especially good in the second half, hitting .263/.343/.464.
Bleday strikes me as a player with a strong floor due to his decision-making skills and role, and his average contact skills in 2024 were an enormous step forward from what we saw in 2023 when he was in the bottom 25% of the league. That said, Bleday doesn’t strike me as a player with a high ceiling. That strong second half still only made him the 85th-best player on FanGraph’s player rater for that period, and even if he keeps it up for a full season, it’s tough to see how exactly Bleday works his way into, say, the top 60 hitters.
Consider Bleday if you need a safe fourth outfielder, especially in OBP leagues and deep formats where his volume and decision-making are most appreciated. In standard 12-team leagues, though, he’s more of a risk-mitigator than anything else.
59. Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) — Buxton’s 102 appearances in 2024 were the most he’s had in a single season since 2017. To his credit, he was pretty fantastic in those 102 games, hitting .279/.335/.524 with 18 home runs, seven steals, a fair number of counting stats, and an improved strikeout rate of 25.2% after back-to-back seasons with a strikeout rate above 30%.
Before you get too excited, though, remember that 102 games represent 63% of the season, and that’s his second-highest total of games played in a season since 2014, and that includes minor league appearances.
If you can manage to hold him on your IL when he inevitably goes down for a few weeks, his output over the course of the season, combined with whatever replacement player you get to fill in for him, should be much better than the 120th-best hitter. If you only have two or three IL spots, you’ll likely end up cutting Buxton at some point for someone better who hits the IL.
Buxton has more talent and upside than anyone in this tier and possibly even the tier above it; however, he is also likely to spend more time on the IL than any of those players. I’m all for taking on risk, but Buxton’s injury risk is the highest of any hitter, and I’m not sure it’s that close.
60. Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI) — McCarthy exploded onto the scene in 2022, bounced between the majors and minors in 2023, and finally had a full season in the majors in 2024. It was odd that McCarthy didn’t steal more bases than he had in prior seasons despite playing in 43 more games than he did in 2022 and 2023, but he did hit .285 and improved his strikeout rate, so who are we to complain? McCarthy’s real flaw comes from his aggression at the plate and unstable decision-making. As you can see from the charts below, McCarthy shows flashes of being an average decision-maker but has a tendency to crater out to well below average, and in those moments he is quite difficult to roster as he hits too many bad balls to the infield. If he shows some average or even slightly below-average decision-making skills, he can be a top-100 hitter, but if he reverts to below-average, McCarthy will be platooned (or worse).
61. Michael Toglia (1B/OF, COL) — The 6’5 corner man put on a show when he returned to the majors in June, hitting 12 home runs in a 28-game stretch from June 15 to the All-Star Break, with six coming in the last six games.
Toglia hits the ball fantastically hard (92.2 mph average exit velocity) and has power to all fields, though he also strikes out well over 30% of the time and struggles to get his batting average over .200 even when playing half his games in Coors.
Toglia should hit near the middle of the order for Colorado and play every day, and with that playing time comes a shot at a 30-home-run season and 10 steals to go with it. OBP leaguers and ratio punters can slide Toglia up a tier, but those in batting average leagues who care about batting average will need to have drafted some batting average contributors earlier on to offset the serious damage he does to you in that category.
It’s also worth mentioning that Toglia probably won’t be a consistent contributor to runs and RBI due to how awful this offense is on the road (and just in general, really). That said, Toglia’s power plays in any stadium, so the home runs will keep popping off even on road trips (though everything else will dry up).
For even more on Toglia, check out Michael Hanlon’s article on sleepers at first base.
62. Tommy Edman (2B/SS/OF, LAD) — Edman missed most of 2024 due to injury, but is lined up to be the starting centerfielder for the Dodgers in 2025. He’s likely to bat near the bottom of the order, but that’s not so bad when you’re a Dodger. Edman flashed pop and speed in his 37 games last season and should return to something like the guy we saw in St. Louis who can swipe 25-30 bases, though any dip in speed will be a huge hit to his value as the bat doesn’t bring much to the table on its own.
63. Trevor Larnach (OF, MIN) — Larnach finally played more than half a season for the first time in his career and showed some strong signs of growth, particularly in his strikeout rate (22.3%, down over 10 points from his average over the three prior seasons). Still, the Twins hid him from left-handed pitching and all signs point to that happening again in 2025 as he looks poised to platoon one of the corner outfield spots or DH with the other bench bats. If or when we see Larnach get a few consecutive starts against lefties and/or if he shows he can be competitive against them consistently, Larnach will be an interesting play for power and batting average. Until then, he’s more of a streamer.
64. Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS) — Abreu should be on the large side of a platoon in Boston’s outfield due to his struggles against same-side pitching, but he showed off significant power at times last season that might be worth chasing. Abreu isn’t a great decision-maker when facing pitches outside of the zone, and his contact ability leaves much to be desired, but his plus in-zone decision-making and power could lead to 20 home runs and 10 steals even in a platoon. Better yet, some opportunities and improvements against lefties should give Abreu a shot to win a full-time job in the outfield, as he was an excellent defender by most advanced metrics last season.
65. Lars Nootbaar (OF, STL) — I’m finally beginning to accept Nootbaar for what he is, which is a disciplined lefty who could hit over 20 home runs and steal 10 bases with a usable batting average and a strong OBP in a full, healthy season, but who will only get to 100-120 games in reality. According to our metrics, Nootbaar is above average in decision-making, contact, and power, but between the injuries and high groundball rate, he’s unlikely ever to reach his true ceiling. Still, he’s a fine outfielder who will serve you well when healthy, especially in OBP leagues.
66. Matt Wallner (OF, MIN) — Wallner has shown fantastic power and excellent decision-making skills for two seasons and has also shown that he struggles mightily to make contact when he chooses to swing. It’s frustrating because decisions and power are meaningless if you can’t connect. Wallner’s contact struggles are evident against all pitch types and on all counts, so it’s just an inherent weakness in his current game. If he finds a way to make more consistent contact, Wallner could be a massive breakout in 2025, but that’s a tall order, so for now, he remains a late-round flyer for power-needy rosters.
67. Willi Castro (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN) — Castro brings expansive eligibility and a leadoff role to your roster, and that alone is worth a spot in your queue late if you have limited room on your bench for hitters. Castro finished just inside the top-100 hitters last season in large part due to his 89 runs scored, though he’s also shown he can steal a few bases as well and is a threat to steal 20 or more bases if he gets the green light again. Even if he doesn’t, Castro’s double-digit home runs and steals, along with the leadoff job, should be enough to bring runs scored and a stable floor across multiple positions if you took one or two extra risks earlier on.
68. Tyler Fitzgerald (SS/OF, SFG) — Fitzgerald came out of nowhere last summer and hit 14 home runs, stole 10 bags, and put together 69 combined runs and RBI in 62 games from July 9 to the end of the season. On the one hand, the hot streak made Fitzgerald a top-30 hitter per the FanGraphs Player Rater in the second half of last season, but on the other, there are some significant holes in Fitzgerald’s profile that concern me.
The obvious one is strikeouts. Fitzgerald’s 31.7% strikeout rate is especially ugly when paired with a 6.5% walk rate, and Fitzgerald’s September strikeout rate was a whopping 37.2%. He also struggled with contact in the zone, connecting on just 78.9% of pitches he swung at that were over the plate.
Fitzgerald looks like the favorite to be the everyday second baseman by the Bay, and that role plus his defensive versatility should help him get the volume necessary to smack 20 home runs and steal close to 20 bases; however, I fear the counting stats and ratios that come with those homers and steals will hurt more than they help, making Fitzgerald only valuable for a small array of roster constructions.
69. Ceddanne Rafaela (2B/SS/OF, BOS) — Ceddanne Rafaela finished inside the top-100 hitters last season, but that was mostly from his first half. Rafaela finished with an absolute whimper, hitting .190/.197/.310 over his final 35 games with zero walks (he did get hit by a pitch, though) and just two home runs and two steals. The Red Sox started benching him by the end of the season, and while there’s upside for 20 home runs and 20 steals, it comes at a significant cost to ratios and with a lot of performance risk.
70. Jordan Walker (OF, STL) — I’ll watch Walker this spring to see if he can keep the ball off the ground. If the ground-ball rate is closer to 40% than 50%, there’s an outside chance he can finally break out and tap into the power in his bat and become a guy who can hit 25 home runs with decent ratios. If he goes back to putting the ball on the ground at too high a rate, he’ll quickly be back on the wire.
71. Garrett Mitchell (OF, MIL) — All I said about Fitzgerald and Rafaela? Pretend I said it again here, except with less power and many more walks. I suppose there may be a bit more playing time risk as well, as if the bat falters, they could go back to Sal Frelick in center and platoon Mitchell.
72. Daulton Varsho (OF, TOR) — Cram together close to 20 home runs, roughly 10 steals, and a .220 batting average with mild-to-moderate counting stats. What do you get? A borderline top-150 hitter and/or Daulton Varsho. Varsho’s value is highest in deeper formats that appreciate volume as I don’t expect a return to anything like what we saw in his final year in Arizona. If you need a fourth or fifth outfielder who will play and put up decent numbers and you don’t care about the ratios he will bring, Varsho can fill that role.
Tier 8
73. Michael Conforto (OF, LAD) — 20 home runs with no speed and mediocre ratios wouldn’t usually generate even this much interest, but it turns my head a little when you’re slated to play every day for the Dodgers. Conforto may have a little competition in the form of Enrique Hernández and Chris Taylor when lefties take the mound, but even 120 starts for the Dodgers while batting sixth or seventh ought to lead to at least 130 combined runs and RBI, and those are tough numbers to pass up.
74. Christopher Morel (2B/3B/OF, TBR) — Stop me if you’ve heard this archetype before — Morel is a guy with loads of power and major contact issues. Morel improved his strikeout rate last season but still whiffed a ton in the zone and hit way too many pop-ups. If the Rays can get Morel to make better decisions more consistently, then we might be looking at a guy who hits 25 home runs and steals 10 bases while hitting .240. Otherwise, Morel will end up being a streamer for those trying to catch the comet’s tail when everything clicks for him in short intervals.
75. Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) — Marsh is not the first nor the last platooned lefty in this tier. What makes Marsh different from Pederson and Ryan O’Hearn is that he runs a bit, has a bit less power, and won’t hit over .250 due to his high strikeout rate. He’s more of a streamer in 12-teamers, but if you need a little boost across the board from your fifth outfielder and don’t care about a lower batting average or contact-driven volatility, then Marsh is your man.
76. Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) — O’Hearn is a great example of why extrapolating platoon bats is a bad idea. While O’Hearn did set a new career high in home runs in his 142-game campaign with 15, it was just a single home run more than what he accomplished in 2019 and 2023 in 30 fewer games. O’Hearn will probably hit about .265 again with about 15 home runs even if he plays 20-30 fewer games than last season, which is great for streaming and for teams with deep benches that can make use of pure platoon guys.
77. Jo Adell (OF, LAA) — Adell looks like the guy in centerfield for the Angels, so why not take one more flyer, right? Adell improved his strikeout rate tremendously in 2024 and managed to hit 20 home runs and steal 15 bases, though he did that with a .207 batting average and .280 OBP and those 15 bases came on 25 attempts which suggests he may not get as many green lights this coming season. Adell is a lottery ticket, but at least he’s an exciting one who finally showed some fleeting improvements last season.
78. Evan Carter (OF, TEX) — Back issues robbed Carter of a proper sophomore campaign and may well have been the cause of his steep decline that began in May. Carter is unlikely to ever show the power we saw in his rookie season when he slugged .645 in 23 games during the regular season and .500 in 17 postseason games, but given a full, healthy season Carter should be able to hit 15 home runs and steal 15 bases with modest counting stats and a .250 batting average. Whether he’s healthy is a big question, though, and I expect Carter to be on the bench for 20-30 games this season either due to injury or to prevent it.
79. Andrew Benintendi (OF, CHW) — You want 15 home runs, a .250 batting average, a handful of steals, and a possible platoon guy who hits third for the worst offense in baseball? Here it is. He’ll be useful in points leagues and deeper formats due to volume and a sub-20% strikeout rate, but in 12-teamers, you generally want more upside than this.
80. Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) — Vierling is likely the starting right fielder for the Tigers, and he’ll also fill in at first or third against lefties. While I think he can come close to replicating the 16 home runs and .735 OPS he had in 2024, it’s highly unlikely Vierling will get 104 starts hitting in the top third of the order this season. That’s the only difference I see in what to expect this season. Like many others in this tier, Vierling isn’t exciting, but he brings a bit of power, plenty of playing time, and hopefully somewhere around 70 RBI with decent ratios, which can fill a need in deeper formats.
81. Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL) — Kjerstad looks like he’ll start the season in the minors, but if he DOES get a spot on the roster on Opening Day, he could hit 25 home runs with decent ratios. By the time the season starts, Kjerstad will either be one or two tiers higher or one or two tiers lower.
82. Jhonkensy Noel (OF, CLE) — Big Christmas brings a ton of power to the table, and given a full-season workload, he could easily hit 25 or even 30 home runs. The question is twofold: will he get a full season workload, and what ratios will come with those dingers if he does?
Noel’s highly aggressive approach and pull-heavy batted ball profile will likely keep the batting average and walk rates below average, though an improvement to his strikeout rate is possible if he keeps working on laying off pitches out of the zone (an area where he made some mild improvements last season, though it remained a major weakness). The magic number, I think, is about 25%, and if the strikeout rate sits around that number, then we could be looking at a value-meal version of Jake Burger.
83. Roman Anthony (OF, BOS) — Anthony is one of the top prospects in the game, and if he had a clear spot on the roster to start the season he’d be considerably higher on this list due to his ability to take walks and his plus to plus-plus power. The Red Sox outfield is crowded, though outside of Jarren Duran, it is short on star-caliber talent. Anthony will almost certainly start the season in the minor leagues. Still, if injuries or poor performance hamper Yoshida, Abreu, Rafaela, or Rob Refsnyder and create an open spot, Anthony will be the one we want to see get the call.
84. Kyle Stowers (OF, MIA) — A classic example of a lefty with power and strikeout issues. Stowers hit the ball hard in his 69 big league games last season when he connected, but his 18.1% swinging-strike rate and 75.9% zone-contact rate highlight his issues with contact. If he can get that zone-contact rate above 80%, he could post a 25 home run season, albeit with ugly ratios. The Marlins will give Stowers every opportunity to work out his problems against major league pitching, so he’s worth keeping an eye on or even taking as a flyer at the end of drafts if you’re light on pop.
85. Jerar Encarnación (OF, SFG) — Encarnacion demolished the ball when he was up for the Giants last season, posting a 95 mph average exit velocity and a 58.8% hard-hit rate. He struggled to get the ball in the air and almost all of his balls in the air went up the middle or the opposite way, which explains why Baseball Savant’s expected stats think he was so unlucky (those numbers don’t use batted-ball direction). If Encarnacion can get in front of the ball a little more, there could be true 30 home run power here; however, Encarnacion is a defensive liability and right-handed, which makes it hard to find a path to playing time. If injuries or a hot streak land him in the starting nine with regularity, be ready to plug him in.
86. Jordan Beck (OF, COL) — Power, speed, and contact issues are the story here, as it is with many hit-or-miss youngsters. Beck stands out because he plays for the Rockies and has a head start to a starting gig as the right fielder in Coors. His lackluster hit tool will make him impossible to trust on the road, but 15 home runs and 15 steals with a .245 average are in the cards if Beck stays a starter all season, and if you pick and choose your spots, you’ll get much better ratios than that (at the cost of a bench spot, of course).
87. TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) — Friedl was on the IL three times last season, and even when he was healthy, the performance left much to be desired. Friedl broke out in 2023, but 2024 gave some ammunition to the naysayers who pointed to Friedl’s unimpressive batted-ball metrics. As of now, Friedl is projected to lead off for the Reds, and that’s enough to make a guy interesting enough to consider with a late-round pick. However, between the injury and performance concerns, it could quickly turn into a platoon situation with Austin Hays and Stuart Fairchild ready to take his place.
88. Jacob Young (OF, WSN) — Young stole 33 bases last season and hit .256. He also scored 75 runs despite hitting in the ninth spot for the Nationals and finished inside the top 120 hitters in 2024. Unfortunately, that is likely the ceiling for Young, as he does not bring much to the table with the bat.
I imagine the Nats will remain aggressive on the base paths, making Young a late-round option for steals, but I am highly skeptical that he can get nearly as many runs scored this season, making Young a low-upside steals-only contributor.
Tier 9
89. Luke Raley (1B/OF, SEA) — Raley’s aggressive approach and plus power set him up to be an uneven contributor who will give you stretches of solid performances and also unbearable cold spells, making it tough to keep him on a 12-team roster for more than a few weeks at a time. I also expect Raley to be platooned when southpaws take the mound, reducing his utility even further in shallow leagues. Still, he’ll be roster-worthy at times in most formats and should get close to 20 home runs and 10 steals, assuming he stays healthy (which is far from a given), albeit with light counting stats and sub-par ratios.
90. Jesús Sánchez (OF, MIA) — The Marlins love hard-swinging lefties with an aggressive approach and contact issues, don’t they? Sánchez is dealing with elbow issues right now, which is a bit unnerving, and he also struggles to get the ball in the air, making his plus power all for naught. Of course, if he finds a way to get more lift, Sánchez could be quite the steal as a 25vhome run bat who hits .250, but it’s an issue he struggled with even in the minor leagues, leaving only a faint ray of hope for it to be corrected.
91. Austin Hays (OF, CIN) — Hays is a free-swinging right-handed outfielder with modest pop and little speed, which would typically bury him much further down this list. That is, unless he were to get a chance to be an everyday player for the Reds and play half his games in the Coors of the East, which is precisely where we stand today. Hays could hit 16-18 home runs and drive in 60-70 runners if he manages to hold the job all season, though his propensity to go on long slumps due to his swing-heavy approach will likely land him in platoons at various points throughout the season.
92. Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SFG) — Yastrzemski will likely spend a few days on the IL and go in and out of a platoon, but when all is said and done, I expect him to hit about 17 home runs with up to 60 runs scored and 60 RBI and a lackluster set of ratios. That will likely put him better than this ranking at the end of the season, but I’m not all that into settling for a top 150-200 player with little chance of being better than that in the late rounds.
93. Jeff McNeil (2B, NYM) — McNeil’s .256 BABIP was unlucky, but not so unlucky that I am willing to ignore his .238 batting average—McNeil’s days as a .300 hitter are behind him, though his positional flexibility and contact skills will lead to some hot streaks that are worth rostering from time to time.
94. Andy Pages (OF, LAD) — Pages’s pop is real and he showed enough to me to prove he could hit 25 home runs one day; however, it appears the Dodgers aren’t going to let 2025 be that day. The Dodgers signed a slew of veterans to man the outfield in Conforto, Hernández, Taylor, and yet other Hernández, so several things would need to happen for Pages to get a sniff at a starting gig.
95. Jarred Kelenic (OF, ATL) — Kelenic, if only for a moment, looked like the star we were promised in June last season, hitting six home runs with a reduced strikeout rate and a .304 average. However, the All-Star break seemed to sap his mojo, and Kelenic reverted to his high strikeout ways. Atlanta appears poised to platoon Kelenic with De La Cruz in right field this season, and there’s only so much longer we can keep a candle burning while waiting for his star to finally shine.
96. Starling Marte (OF, NYM) — Marte has played about half the season in each of his last two campaigns, and nothing we’ve seen has been much of a surprise. Counting on Marte for more than 70-90 games would be fool-hardy, but while he’s on the field he should steal bases and hit the odd home run or two without ruining your batting average, though as a short-side platoon guy he’s not someone you can think much about in weekly formats.
97. LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B/OF, SFG) — Wade Jr. doesn’t bring a lot of ceiling or excitement to fantasy lineups, but he’s currently pegged as the regular leadoff man in San Francisco and Wade Jr.’s high walk rate and ability to make contact should lead to double-digit home runs and a fair share of runs scored with a high-end OBP when he’s in the lineup.
98. Dylan Moore (2B/3B/SS/OF, SEA) — Moore enters his age-32 season as a player who can still steal 20-25 bases and hit 10 home runs, though he’ll struggle to hit .200, stay healthy, or accumulate any counting stats at the bottom of Seattle’s lineup. That’s the whole story here, folks. It’s speed and positional versatility and little else.
99. Josh Smith (3B/SS/OF, TEX) — Smith started out strong in 2024 and more or less carried that performance through the All-Star Break before hitting a wall. His plate discipline and power evaporated following the five-day layoff, and the timing was unfortunate as it was just as other youngsters in Texas were finding a groove. Smith will likely be a utilityman who plays against righties, though any injury or prolonged slump impacting almost any of the eight guys playing the field would open up more opportunities. Still, Smith’s ceiling is limited to a handful of home runs and steals with a neutral batting average, so it’s hard to get too excited unless he somehow works his way back into the top third of the lineup.
100. Jesse Winker (OF, NYM) — Winker proved last season that he can still pop off for a few weeks at a time against righties, though I wouldn’t count on anything like the extended run he had with the Nationals to happen again, especially not the stolen bases. Winker didn’t run a single time as a Met, and I think every major projection system is flat wrong on projecting five to seven steals. It’ll be zero or one.
Also Ranked
Alex Verdugo
Max Kepler
Nolan Jones
Jake Fraley
Tommy Pham
Hunter Goodman
Victor Scott II
Pavin Smith
Jonny DeLuca
MJ Melendez
Jose Siri
Kris Bryant
Miguel Andujar
Mike Tauchman
Harrison Bader
Miguel Vargas
Wenceel Pérez
Seth Brown
Chas McCormick
Nelson Velázquez
Richie Palacios
Davis Schneider
Sal Frelick
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)