Yes, entrenched closers do have more SV+HLD total upside in general, but there are still three (or more) categories we also have to consider here. Thats why I generally favor upside over safety early on, especially when it comes to draft season. Holds are similar to wins, but there’s an even bigger player pool to work with when it comes to finding them, so you can wait and find your Toby esque relievers as the season moves along. This strategy can certainly change in classic Roto leagues where you draft relievers strictly for SV+HLD’s, but in head to head or points leagues, you should be looking for a more complete reliever.
Edwin Uceta came from seemingly nowhere last year but he finished the season with a 30.8% K-BB rate, 2.10 SIERA, and 2.02 pCRA, which were all second-best amongst relievers with 40+ innings pitched in 2024. Theres definitely some risk here since we are working solely off a 40 IP sample size, but we’ve seen the upside and we know there aren’t many relievers out there that can touch that upside. So I’d rather take a chance on him in SV+HLD drafts than say Tyler Rogers who may not help your ratios much and he’ll give you nothing in the strikeout department. Holds are volatile and unpredictable and there’s no guarantee someone like Rogers even gets 30 holds this season.
Notes
- We only saw 7.1 innings from Gregory Santos in his first season with Seattle, but he is healthy now and should be in the mix for a high-leverage role to open the season. Hopefully, we see upper 90s velo from him this spring.
- Speaking of upper 90’s velo, Jose A. Ferrer sits at 98 mph from the left side but he struggled to miss bats last year due to a lack of quality secondary offerings. If he can generate more chases out of the zone (maybe more changeup usage?), there might be some intriguing upside here.
- Erik Miller is another hard-throwing lefty who is now the only lefty in the Giants bullpen with Taylor Rogers going to Cincinnati this winter. Miller was able to generate a 30.6% K rate thanks to a pair of solid secondaries, but his fastball command is still holding him back.
- By late June, Anthony Bender saw his velo creep back towards 96+ mph and he finished the season on a high note, with a 30.7% K (23.8% K-BB) rate, and 2.48 xFIP over his final 24.1 innings pitched. Theres still some upside here.
- Colin Holderman’s stuff still graded out well last season, but it was overall a down year for the holds man. At this point he’s only useful for holds, but his sweeper is so good that maybe a few tweaks to his fastball and we see a breakout season from Holderman.
