Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros as of Monday. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Rest of Season Note
With so little turnover among the elite players in terms of the league leaders, we’re switching to just the rostered in 50% or fewer of leagues leaderboards from here through the rest of the season, focusing on helping you find the waiver wire options who could help win your fantasy league.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
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And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Connor Norby.
We’re very much in the realm of small sample sizes here, but Connor Norby has been excellent after being given the chance to start full-time with the Marlins.
The infielder is batting .286 with a .318 on-base percentage, a 148 wRC+, eight home runs, and a pair of stolen bases in his first 110 plate appearances for the National League East club this season, regularly hitting in the top third of the lineup. There’s maybe a hint of unsustainability here, what with a 31.8% strikeout rate and a .355 BABIP, but Norby has also logged a 14.3% barrel rate so far.
If we had months left in the full season, he’d probably be someone who (based purely on his current statistical data) might be a candidate to see some regression where his batting average and on-base percentage were concerned but maintain solid power numbers.
But, we don’t have a few weeks left in the full season. We have a few weeks. Add Norby to your fantasy team in any leagues where you need second-base help, regardless of format.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: James Wood.
If this feels like déjà vu to see Wood being written about here as being on far too few fantasy rosters, well, you aren’t wrong.
That was the case a few weeks ago, and it still is now.
Since making his Major League debut on June 1, the outfielder is batting .274 with a .367 on-base percentage, five home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 121 wRC+ in 256 plate appearances. He’s also sporting a 52.7% hard-hit rate, a .338 xwOBA, a 9.5% barrel rate, and just a 21.6% chase rate during that span.
Among qualified hitters, just 60 have a higher wRC+ than Wood during that span. Here’s a small sampling of the players with a lower wRC+ than the Nationals outfielder since he made his Major League debut:
José Ramírez, Trea Turner, Pete Alonso, Jurickson Profar, Bryce Harper, Luis Arraez, Marcus Semien, J.D. Martinez, Matt Olson and Brandon Nimmo.
James Wood is a league winner, folks, regardless of format.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Michael Toglia.
Speaking of splits from July 1 onwards, Michael Toglia too is sporting a 121 wRC+ during that span (246 plate appearances to be exact.
He’s walking 14.6% of the time with a 29.7% strikeout rate while sporting a .240 average, a .351 on-base percentage, 14 home runs and four stolen bases during that span.
Like Wood, he’s a potential league winner regardless of format (though particularly in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring) with his fantasy eligibility at first base and in the outfield.
Speaking of that aforementioned and oft-mentioned period, only four batters have a higher barrel rate than Toglia (19.0%) during that span: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Kyle Schwarber.
You may have heard of them.
Just maybe.
Anyways, another noteworthy bit here: Toglia and the Rockies play 12 of their final 15 games at home. Their only non-home series during that span comes at Los Angeles’ Dodger Stadium, a ballpark with the second-highest park factor for home runs in the last three seasons, per Statcast.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Matt Vierling.
More fun with July 1-onwards splits.
Matt Vierling is hitting .270 during that span with six home runs, five stolen bases, and a .330 on-base percentage, not to mention a 118 wRC+.
That’s more home runs than James Wood and Xander Bogaerts during that span and the same as Jose Altuve and Oneil Cruz.
Among the hitters with a lower wRC+ than Vierling during that span? Trea Turner, José Ramírez, and Bryce Harper.
For the season, Vierling is sporting a 108 wRC+, one point below Will Smith and one point above Cody Bellinger and Vinnie Pasquantino, as well as two points above Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodrigeuz.
With fantasy eligibility at both third base and in the outfield, Vierling can fill in at a variety of different positions for fantasy managers.
RBI
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: J.D. Martinez.
Despite not debuting with the Mets until April 26 of this season, Martinez still has the 16th-most barrels in the league with an even 40 on 265 batted ball events in 444 plate appearances.
That’s good for a 15.1% barrel rate.
Entering play this week, Martinez had collected the same number of barrels as teammate Pete Alonso, despite the latter logging 64 more plate appearances.
The 40 barrels were also more than each of the following hitters had this year (all of the hitters listed, it should be noted, had at least 460 plate appearances): Gunnar Henderson, Salvador Perez, Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado, William Contreras, Colton Cowser, Freddie Freeman, and Bryce Harper.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Victor Robles.
A must-add waiver wire option in deeper leagues, the fact that Robles is regularly hitting leadoff for the Mariners only helps his fantasy ceiling.
Robles hit .120 with a .281 on-base percentage and a 33 wRC+ (plus four stolen bases) in 33 plate appearances for the Nationals earlier this season but is batting .307 with a .369 on-base percentage, four home runs and 19 stolen bases in 199 plate appearances for the Mariners.
With five stolen bases from August 27 through the beginning of play Monday, Robles looks like a potential league winner for fantasy managers with his combination of stolen bases, batting average production, and run-scoring potential atop the Mariners lineup.
That he’s still hitting leadoff will also continue to help the 27-year-old see more plate appearances (at least comparatively to hitting further down the order).
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Taj Bradley.
Bradley rebounded nicely from a tough stretch with 10 strikeouts in seven innings against the Twins on September 5, allowing six hits, four earned runs, a pair of home runs, and a walk in the process. Assuming the Rays’ rotation continues as is, Bradely’s remaining projected starts aren’t overly great from a fantasy standpoint. He’s set to start at Cleveland, at home versus Toronto, and on the road in Boston. But it’s not a decidedly horrendous stretch by any means for a pitcher with so much swing-and-miss potential.
For teams in leagues with 14 or more teams chasing points in terms of strikeouts, wins, and WHIP in playoff or championship games, he’s worth a look to try and make up ground in those categories.
ERA
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Tyler Holton.
Holton has filled a variety of roles for the Tigers this year. He’s opened games, started and thrown somewhere in the neighborhood of three innings, has pitched in a multi-inning high-leverage role, and also closed contests for the surging American League Central club.
And through it all, he’s been very good at throwing a baseball, pitching to a 2.29 ERA and a 3.23 FIP in 58 appearances spanning 82.2 innings. During that span, he’s logged five wins, seven saves, seven starts, and 11 holds while limiting batters to just 1.52 walks and 0.65 home runs per nine innings.
He’s the perfect addition to help with weekly ERA and WHIP numbers while also potentially chipping in with wins, saves, and holds. And oh yeah, Holton is sporting a 0.45 ERA and a 2.39 FIP in 40.1 innings since the beginning of July.
The left-hander is also pitching so often for the Tigers that adding him for a week is essentially like adding a quality streaming option, only this time with the potential for multiple wins, saves, and holds.
Just last week the 28-year-old left-hander threw 5.1 innings over four appearances, scattering two hits and one unearned run while logging a save and a hold.
Wins (W)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Marcus Stroman.
The Yankees’ high-powered lineup has helped Stroman to another double-digit pitcher-win season, his fifth in the last six years in which he’s made at least 25 starts. And all that despite Stroman seeing his FIP rise above the 4.00 mark for the first time in a season (it entered play this week at 4.73).
Stroman’s FIP and just 6.61 strikeouts per nine innings aren’t ideal, but he makes for a potentially intriguing streaming option down the stretch.
Assuming the Yankees’ rotation continues as is without any interruptions, Stroman’s next three starts will come at home to Boston, on the road in Oakland, and at home to Pittsburgh. The Boston start is probably one to avoid fantasy-wise, but after that, Stroman could be worth a look in most all fantasy formats.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Ryne Nelson.
Entering his last start, Nelson had been one of the better pitchers in baseball since the beginning of July. From July 1 through August 7, Nelson pitched to a 2.76 ERA and a 3.03 FIP, striking out 75 batters while scattering just 14 walks and seven home runs.
If you’re doing the math at home, that’s good for per-nine-inning rates of 9.00, 1.68, and 0.84 respectively.
During that stretch, he pitched at least six innings nine times and threw a minimum of seven innings on three different occasions. Also? Nelson allowed more than two earned runs just three times in those 11 starts.
Then Nelson faced the Astros on Sunday and surrendered six hits, five earned runs, two walks, and a home run in just 4.2 innings while striking out four.
Assuming Arizona’s rotation continues as is, Nelson will see his final three starts come against Milwaukee (twice in a row, home and away) and then at home to San Francisco.
The San Francisco start is fine for fantasy purposes. Good but not great. Middle of the road in terms of the on-paper, fantasy upside of it. Maybe if it were in San Francisco and not Arizona it’d lean towards a fantasy-friendly start.
But the two Milwaukee starts, like the Houston outing, are unideal against a team that has been outscored by just five others entering play this week. And one of those starts is in the home run-friendly confines of American Family Field. Per Statcast, Milwaukee’s home ballpark has the fifth-highest park factor for home runs in the last three years.
Saves (SV)
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Lucas Erceg.
A quality, under-the-radar saves addition for the fantasy playoffs, Erceg has firmly established himself as the closer in Kansas City. Since his first appearance for the Royals on July 31, he has recorded eight of the team’s 11 saves, with the other three distributed evenly between Hunter Harvey, John Schreiber, and Daniel Lynch IV.
WHIP
Leaders rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Cody Bradford.
One of the top streaming options the rest of the way in deeper leagues, Bradford’s fantasy schedule opens up considerably starting with his next outing. Bradford finishes the year with three projected starts (assuming Texas’ rotation continues without any interruptions) with remaining starts against Toronto (home), the Mariners (home), and the Angels (away).