Top 400 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2025 – SP Rankings 61-80

TOP 100 SP RANKINGS UPDATE – 3/24/2025 HERE

THESE RANKINGS ARE OUTDATED

Let’s continue ranking the best 400 starting Pitchers to draft in fantasy baseball for 2025. Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation. I’ve also added the full Top 100 SP table at the bottom of this article.

For a table of the full 400 SP (really 450!) and to read this article Ad-Free (or to simply support me for putting all of this together!), make sure to subscribe to PL+ or PL Pro where I have these rankings inside a massive Google Sheet. You can access the sheet inside our subscriber Discord.

To get full context of these rankings, read my Rankings outline at the start of the 1-20 rankings and as always…

61. Brandon Woodruff (MIL, RHP)

At first, I had Woodruff far down my rankings. He’s recovering from shoulder surgery that removed him from all of 2024, and without viewing velocity readings, he’s progressing normally. It’s rare for a pitcher to return from a major shoulder injury and perform at anywhere near the level of Woodruff’s time as a de facto fantasy ace, and I believe we’re all on the same page with that assessment.

And yet, here I am, ranking Woodruff relatively high. Why? Because once all of the secure “yes, I have high expectations I will be rostering this pitcher all season” pitchers are off the board, you should aggressively switch your mentality toward “Who has a lot of upside and I’ll know super early if it’ll pan out?” And guess what, that’s Woodruff.

We’re going to get a better idea of him throughout the spring, of course, but when we last saw him, his four-seamer had boatloads of iVB at 96 mph, a generally flat attack angle, and slightly above average extension. It was an elite four-seamer he could command and control the pace of the game with. He even had a stellar sinker he easily spotted inside to RHB for outs, though his slider was looking a little rough compared to its former “I’m here to steal a strike, don’t mind me” pitch of previous seasons.

He also had a bit of trouble with the feel of his changeup, a pitch that was absurd against LHB in 2021 and 2022, racking up a stupid high 31% SwStr rate across 28% usage in 2022 (no, that’s not a typo). The slider and change could have been affected by his shoulder, though, and we’re hoping he can just hit the reset button.

In all likelihood, no, Woodruff won’t be back to his full self. But does he have to be? We just want a strong fastball and decent enough secondaries. Show us the 95/96 mph with a solid changeup, and we’re thrilled with Woodruff for how many innings he can get if we’re drafting him as our SP #5 or even SP #6 in 12-teamers. I’d much rather chase this easy decision of a starter over a volatile flamethrower or a boring Toby I can find off the wire. Give me the guy who has done it all before and only needs to be healthy.

Quick Take: Woodruff was elite when healthy, and despite the fears of shoulder surgeries, this could very well be the healthiest he’s been since 2021. Don’t draft him expecting over 150 innings, nor at a place where you need him to replicate his former self, but the moment you can take a shot in your drafts, you should be eyeing Woodruff.

62. Kevin Gausman (TOR, RHP)

I kinda don’t want to deal with it…? Gausman is who he is – a dude who throws a ton of four-seamers for strikes and what has been the most consistent splitter in baseball…until it wasn’t. The pitch used to be routine 60%+ strike and 20%+ swinging-strike rates, but fell to 52% strike and 14% swinging-strike rates to LHB, while it saw a smaller drop but still significant to RHB with a huge increase in ICR to 45%. It was bad.

Gausman did collect himself by the end of the season to feature a few games with his splitter returning whiffs just like the old days, but is that enough to win us over again? He also added a sinker to jam RHB! That’s true, and I dig it. After all, the worse splitter meant batters could feast on more four-seamers (and yes, they were crushed by RHB) and Gausman responded well by hurling a sinker for a sub-30% zone rate into the hands of RHB. It worked well and arguably saved his season, though that’s not quite enough for me to get back on good terms with Gausman.

The end result last year was a 3.82 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but more importantly a 21% strikeout rate due to the massive dip in whiffs. It makes you wonder if Gausman is worth the gamble this year given the mortality of his splitter and nothing else to support it, but then again, Gausman found a way to get through the season despite the worse splitter and he likely won’t be an arm you want to drop after drafting him.

I’m incredibly conflicted. I can see the logic in drafting Gausman hoping he will be the man of old and act like a 25-30% strikeout arm again with his old splitter. On the other, Gausman could return another harmful season (yes, those ratios hurt you in a 12-teamer last season) and you could be trapped all season without realizing the damage until the season is done.

In the end, I’m placing him in the HIPSTER tier with the hope he climbs up quickly through the season. I’ll have a close eye on him in the spring, specifically if the K/BB rates are favorable. Yes, you can use spring K/BB numbers effectively as Gausman’s strikeouts will only come if the splitter is cooking. Let’s hope it is.

Quick Take: It’s hard to tell if Gausman will have his old splitter or not. Fortunately, he’s not costing a Top 100 pick and it may be worthwhile to grab him in hopes he can return to form. Be careful, though, as it may be tough to gauge early, leaving you susceptible to many innings of harmful ratios.

63. Lucas Giolito (BOS, RHP)

Here’s the deal, y’all. Giolito will be ready for Opening Day. That’s the plan, that’s been the news for the entire winter, and we should be treating Giolito like we were last year at this time. He was even showcasing solid velocity in the spring before he underwent Internal Brace surgery (not TJS but close) and I see a legit upside play here for cheap.

The last few years of Giolito? Get them out of your head. He showcased skills mixed with games he was hurt or out of rhythm for teams that did little to fix his problems. Now he’s with the Red Sox with a solid gameplan that I believe will bring out the most of his four-seamer, changeup, and slider. Who knows, maybe there’s a cutter coming to help bridge it all together? Or maybe the curve returns?

The Red Sox will let the man cook…unless they want to limit him under 130 innings to snag another year at a cheap price. I believe the Red Sox can’t afford to lose those starts from Giolito and will instead work him every five days to get the most of him before they lose him to free agency. His changeup will likely still be legit, his fastball command strong, and with a slider that should be effective against RHB, he’s a Holly who could have his best season in ages. I love this, but sure, let’s see what happens in the spring. Monitor his velocity and arsenal changes to ensure he’s ready to produce for your fantasy teams every five games (NO SIX MAN, PLEASE).

Quick Take: This is a new Giolito. His arm is repaired, he has a great coaching staff behind him, and can go six innings often for a winning club. This is the scenario we’ve waited for Giolito to have for years and I’m all for getting in before the price goes up…just make sure it doesn’t look terrible during spring training.

64. Walker Buehler (BOS, RHP)

Buehler is a mystery entering the season who fortunately doesn’t cost you a pretty penny. Some may watch his playoff performances and believe he’s turned a corner toward the pitcher he was in 2021, even if I believe the adrenaline of the playoffs turned Buehler into a different arm than what we should expect across a full season.

The good news? Buehler is getting drafted after Pick 250, making him a late round flier, not a breakout play you have to lean upon throughout the year. It’s how it should be from Buehler, who doesn’t have a four-seamer destined to earn whiffs and needs to figure out his approach with secondaries to become the reliable arm of the past. I’ll put it plainly: We’re hoping Buehler turns into a Holly. Something like a 23-25% strikeout rate with good enough ratios. Don’t come into this expecting a sub 3.00 ERA or 1.05 WHIP, but Buehler still has enough of an arsenal and solid stuff to make that come to fruition with a strong gameplan and open mind to his approach. I trust his command to be above average and merged with a high Win chance in Boston, you’re likely to draft Buehler and not drop him.

The best part? You won’t be spending a Top 200 pick to get him. It’s the ideal scenario of potential grabbing a season-long arm who you can drop quickly if things look sour early. Sign me up and monitor the success of his cutter and curve. I believe those two pitchers the key to whiffs, while the four-seamer’s cut action should keep him effective inside to LHB.

Quick Take: Buehler is a fun pick given his potential to turn into a Holly this season for a winning club. Don’t expect his 2020/2021 seasons aided by sticky stuff to return in the slightest, but there is a legit arm in here who hit rock bottom in 2024 and is in the process of being built back up the right way.

65. Jesús Luzardo (PHI, LHP)

There’s a lot to dissect with Luzardo. The move to the Phillies is obviously a positive now that he has an actual chance for more than 10 Wins, though that will depend more on his health than anything else – Luzardo has pitched 101 or more IP just once in his career and while he’ll have every opportunity this year to replicate his IL-free 2023 season, we can’t bank on that entering drafts.

And that’s fine. You won’t be drafting Luzardo in 12-teamers at a spot where you need to get him for the full year, in fact, I’ve seen him going near the last few rounds and that should excite you. Luzardo has all kinds of flaws from a massive strikeout rate drop last year (blame the four-seamer’s inability to get upstairs in two-strike counts. Yes, that’s the only major putaway rate drop from last year), to a slider that makes so many dang mistakes in two-strike counts to RHB that they held a 40%+ ICR across 27% usage, while also dropping to a paltry 52% strike rate to LHB (you know, the batters the pitch is supposed to dominate). Luzardo also saw a drop in velocity to 95 mph from 96/97 mph, which is amplified by a 2nd percentile extension that makes that 95 mph look like 93 mph. No wonder the pitch has so few whiffs.

Those flaws are correctable, though. His heater comes with exceptional horizontal movement (think of it like a sinker) and I believe he’s using it incorrectly. Its failures to RHB come from the pitch gliding from the inside corner back over the plate too frequently, while his approach to LHB is to back-door them for called strikes instead of jamming them inside. Sure, the outside heater helps mask the slider, but at least mix it up a bit more and take advantage of the pitch’s movement. Please.

The changeup is still a great offering against RHB, even if it doesn’t putaway batters as effectively as a well-executed slider. I’m hoping the Phillies direct Luzardo to use it more often against RHB while squashing the slider a bit, and possibly move the four-seamer down-and-away to add a bit more deception. That slowball is arguably Luzardo’s best offering and he needs to squeeze more out of it.

What I like about Luzardo is simple. He has two whiff pitches for 25%+ strikeout ability, has a long leash on a winning team, and we can make a quick decision on him in April, all while not sacrificing a substantial draft pick. Don’t think about the season-long volume or the floor right now – this is a draft pick you generally swap out for a waiver wire add throughout the year. Let’s hope it hits.

Quick Take: Considering the low draft capital needed for Luzardo, I’m very much in on giving this a shot. Luzardo has some needed tweaks to get the most out of his low extension approach – mostly avoiding damage on his four-seamer and slider – while his strikeout upside is very much present. With a high Win chance per start, I love seeing if this breaks right in April as you may have one of the actual sleepers of this year’s draft.

66. Drew Rasmussen (TBR, RHP)

I’m all for grabbing Rasmussen in 12-teamers. But he could end up in the bullpen! Yes, and then we drop him if he does. If he’s in the rotation, you have an absurd contact suppressor rooted in a lively four-seamer/sinker mix with one of the better cutters around that’s just so hard to read. But the cutter wasn’t good in 2024! Very fair – his feel for the cutter took a significant step back from what we saw in 2022 and 2023, though I’m willing to give him the ‘ole “Small sample size” pass for now.

I wouldn’t expect a 25%+ strikeout rate from Rasmussen again given his lean into cutters and sinkers, though the four-seamer’s velocity did jump to 96/97 (possibly because of his limited usage and time in the pen) and it’s possible the four-seamer adds another weapon to putaway RHB. The floor is fantastic with a reliable ratio arm who should sit comfortably above a 20% strikeout rate, the only question is usage at this point.

Quick Take: Rasmussen’s trio of fastballs via four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters with varying movement baffles hitters into weak outs, while there is still strikeout upside to be had. Be cautious: He may be regulated to the pen after his long injury history, but he’s worth the late pick on the chance he gets the starting gig out of camp. Be ready to drop him if he becomes a reliever.

67. Bobby Miller (LAD, RHP)

Bobby Hundo. After we hyped you so much last year, you are now an afterthought. There’s just one spot in this rotation before Ohtani returns, but even then the Dodgers are expected to expand to a six-man. I see this as Miller’s to lose. Let’s be honest, if Miller enters camp and is the dope guy we saw in 2023, how could the Dodgers possibly go with May or Gonsolin instead?

Miller is a phenomenal flier in 12-teamers. Is he in the rotation? No? Drop him before the season starts. He’s in the rotation? Congrats, you likely got a Top 30 SP well outside the Top 30 SP picks. Come on Nick, he wasn’t anywhere near Top 30 last year! Right, and if he pitches like that, he’s not making the rotation. Ohhhh.

Don’t forget, this is a guy with 100 mph potential that flirts with plus on everything. The refinement + overall health is what’s missing and a polished Miller is an absolute stud. Take the shot.

Quick Take: Forget about 2024. If Miller earns a spot in the rotation, it means he’s pitching better and healthier than last season, opening the door for the Top 30 SP stud we expected him to be last year. This is literally his third season, y’all. His career isn’t suddenly over.

68. Tanner Houck (BOS, RHP)

Houck is easy. His sinker and slider make easy work of RHB – that’s never been the issue – and his transformation into a fantasy ace across the first half was a product of stellar feel for his splitter along the outside corner to LHB. After all, sinker/slider guys generally struggle against opposite handed batters and instead of sliders coming back toward hitters and returning a 40-45% ICR with a sinker that doesn’t jam batters (duh), the splitter did the heavy lifting.

And what do you know, the second half was a step back because…you already know. The splitter feel declined, the studly performances dwindled. From June 29th through the end of the season, Houck held a 4.42 ERA and 1.38 WHIP as his splitter returned just a 9% SwStr rate to LHB. Yikes. His sinker also struggled more than usual against LHB in that time, adding to the damage and he even had a shocking loss of feel for his signature slider as well, which shouldn’t be a major problem in the year ahead, but still not fun to see.

It leads us to the obvious question: How much do we trust Houck to have his splitter in 2025? Personally, I’m not counting out the pitch in full or suggesting Houck can’t continue much of the success he had in 2024. I see Houck going through ups and downs as he finds and loses rhythm, and most importantly, I don’t know if he’ll have it out of camp. Houck isn’t going at a high price in drafts (sweet!), making him a great late add to see if he’s at the top of his game early, allowing you to ride it out for as long as he’s cooking, just like last year.

I’m actually a bit surprised he’s going well past pick 200 as of publication given how enamored we all were with him in mid-June last season, but then again, the SP landscape is so deep that Houck gets pushed back to a point where we can draft him without taking on all of the risk. Circle him as a late target to ride early and make a quick drop if he’s not locked in.

Quick Take: Houck’s early success wasn’t a fluke – he deserved that success with his splitter cooking and granting him a fantastic answer for LHB. Sadly, it faded along with small setbacks in his sinker and slider, but he could have that feel back out of camp and produce from day one. The overall season may be rocky, but he’s a fantastic arm to test the first week of the season.

69. Luis Gil (NYY, RHP)

Gil was so good and so frustrating last season as he did his best to navigate through his first full year in the bigs. What started off as an overpowering four-seamer with changeups and sliders for strikes turned into a mix of worse four-seamers, changeups that fell to a 45% strike rate to LHB in the second half, and a slider that had to step up as he often went Dancing With The Disco down the stretch to get through outings. It may have been a product of fatigue for the rookie, though it does fit the bill for a volatile pitcher like Gil.

I was shocked to see the changeup act as a proper #3 pitch in the spring and it carried well into the season at 91 mph, making it a fantastic complement to the heater. That pitch is everything for Gil if he’s to have success in the year ahead – LHB smoked Gil’s four-seamer and slider, while RHB couldn’t hunt heaters when the changeup was working.

I’m cautiously optimistic about Gil. On one hand, I see a pitcher without stellar control and lean away from chasing them as potential HIPSTER arms. On the other, he has clear strikeout ability, and we often see command take a step forward in sophomore seasons. I’m placing Gil at the part of the draft where I’m expecting him to not be dropped on your 12-teamer squad, though there’s a decent chance it falls apart and you have to move on after witnessing another game with five walks.

Quick Take: Gil can go one of two ways. Either he takes a step forward with his control and is able to reduce his walks by featuring more heaters and sliders over the plate, while adding consistency to the changeup, or he has to figure out what works in each outing and make the best of the control he has. The former speaks to legit SP #2 talent, while the latter is as much of a headache as any. Good luck.

70. Taj Bradley (TBR, RHP)

We’re all going to be wrong about Taj because there is no right answer. Bradley has all the makings of a HIPSTER with a trio of pitches that obliterate batters on their best days and become lolipops landing over the fences on their worst. His four-seamer will be a touch worse without the Trop aiding its iVB and with its massive struggles against LHB, I worry his near 1.50 HR/9 is almost guaranteed to rise in the upcoming season, though that heater’s results may improve not on its own, but by growth in his cutter and splitter.

Both secondaries made a large impact in 2024. The cutter’s command against RHB took a huge leap, jumping near 15 points in gloveside location and tunneling consistently with his heater to induce a phenomenal 28% ICR across 27% usage. However, it didn’t progress against LHB as he frequently tugged the pitch inside and off the plate to return a detrimental 55% strike rate. Those LHB problems were dampened a touch by his new splitter with a near 20% SwStr rate and 68% strike rate, but mistakes were often made and pitches were clobbered for a 45% ICR.

I worry that Bradley’s command undulates plenty throughout the season, making for glistening stretches as a bonafide ace smeared with bombastic disasters. It’s maddening for a fantasy manager and it has me ranking Bradley far lower than the great K-BB% suggests. I see Bradley much closer to Nick Pivetta than Dylan Cease, unfortunately, and that confusion makes me suggest drafting other arms.

Quick Take: Bradley’s wavering command makes for a pitcher who looks great on paper but fails to put all the pieces together for a full season. His four-seamer isn’t as elite as his contemporaries, making his command of the entire arsenal the deciding factor. There will be many days when your reluctance to draft Bradley will look brilliant, just try not to get FOMO when he fans 30 batters in four games.

71. Yusei Kikuchi (LAA, LHP)

You may look at the final marks and believe that was Kikuchi throughout 2024. Narrator: It was not. I adored his four-seamer adjustments entering the season as a top-half located pitch with elite shape and extension (so flat! Seven feet of extension at 95/96!), while his secondaries were a mess. He leaned into a terrible changeup while the slider went in-and-out constantly. It made me all kinds of stressed believing in his arsenal while the results simply didn’t arrive.

However, Kikuchi began to focus on the slider by the end of June and he was so close. There were some poor outings rooted in a few mistakes, but we felt on the precipice of a breakout. Then the phone call. Hey, its the Astros. We’ll fix this. And guess what? The first start was fantastic…WITH MORE CHANGEUPS THAN SLIDERS. Wait, what. Yeah, the Astros wanted Kikuchi to go more changeup at first while axing the curve, and while the change eventually fell to the wayside (phew), the curve stayed out of the picture for a heavy heater/slider approach.

I don’t fully agree with that choice – Kikuchi’s curve is a major stabilizer of a pitch to let his slider and heater do damage instead of being forced to be over the plate – and I have to believe we’ll see the curve return when the slider feel isn’t quite there in 2025.

In addition, I’m concerned the Angels’ coaching staff will not help him calibrate in-season as well as the Blue Jays and Astros did. Kikuchi is not a man of consistentcy. He goes through phases and feel more often than standard Top 100 SP and when those moments occur, the responsibility lies on the coaching staff to help make the necessary fixes to get on the right path. The Angels have a terrible track record for this.

Reading this should make you concerned about Kikuchi for the whole season, though there is a decent chance he comes out firing and keeps that rhythm for a good while. I’m hesitant to lean in hard in my drafts, but I see him as a productive play early who could be a quick drop if he’s not in a groove.

Quick Take: There will be highs-and-lows for Kikuchi in 2025, just like every year prior. I’m concerned the Angels will struggle to help Kikuchi recover when he falls out of rhythm, making for more of a HIPSTER arm than a Cherry Bomb who we can endure. Just have your high heater and reliable slider, please.

72. Nick Lodolo (CIN, LHP)

We all want this to work. We’ve seen it work and we can taste the 30% strikeout rate paired with glorious ratios. It seems as though the only one who doesn’t want this to work is Lodolo’s body. He’s dealt with an array of injuries that have prevented him from keeping in a groove for a full season, though through his first eleven starts, Lodolo featured a 2.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 26% strikeout rate. I know, I was shocked, too.

His four-seamer and sinker feature the most horizontal breaker in the bigs (thanks low arm angle!), creating a tough time for LHB as the sinker neared a 50% inside location rate for the first time in his career, while the four-seamer acted as a front-hip pitch to freeze many RHB. When his curve is cooking, it lands glove-side beautifully for whiffs, and soars when he can pair it with a changeup arm-side.

However, he appears to be a traditional slingin’ lefty who is susceptible to bouts of chaos. It’s difficult at his arm angle to be precise for prolonged stretches and when it’s rough, it’s rough. In addition, his fastballs are not heavy whiff pitches, relying mostly on the breaker to get punchouts while the changeup’s consistently needs a bit of refinement.

I can feel the anxiety of rostering Lodolo now, not knowing if he will allow 5 ER or 1 ER each time he takes the bump. He may go deep enough in drafts that you can take a chance and see what happens early, though don’t hold on too tight. Blink once and suddenly he’s wearing plaid and holding a PBR. No, not a HIPSTER!

Quick Take: The stuff is there to dominate with double digit strikeouts on a given night, but a journey filled with injuries makes it difficult to trust Lodolo to find a proper groove in the season ahead. Even when he does well, you’ll wonder if he can keep it up. That’s not a fun experience for fantasy managers.

73. Sean Manaea (NYM, LHP)

We can’t talk about Manaea without mentioning his end of season run and the arm angle change that came with it. In short, the fella lowered his arm slot dramatically and with it came a run of 3.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 28% K rate, 6% BB rate, and a 14% SwStr rate in 12 starts, averaging 6.5 IP per game. It was bonkers. The lower arm slot helped his sweeper get more depth as it effectively took down LHB and still worked against RHB, the sinker became a better pitch to RHB with better precision upstairs, and the changeup incessantly induced weak contact at just a 19% ICR against RHB.

I’m not sure what to think about it all. The biggest drawback is the 52% ICR sinker to LHB in that time, though the improved sweeper nullifies it to a degree. The changeup floated upstairs more often, but its similarity to the sinker made it churn outs more frequently than when it was located down earlier in the season. It’s as if every questionable element to this shift has a counterpoint that makes me feel a little strange but the data is the data.

I do have one clear pushback: Manaea is routinely a feel pitcher and a lower arm angle traditionally results in lower consistency and a heavier reliance on rhythm. What we saw last year was a man locked in (until the playoffs…). I’m not saying Manaea can’t be locked in again, but there’s a good chance he’s a HIPSTER akin to his former self, especially with the sinker overperforming during that stretch.

And the data isn’t completely friendly to Manaea, either. His absurd stretch came with a 5.5 hits-per-nine and a .208 BABIP that is obviously unsustainable. The changeup is not going to carry the same ICR rate for a full year, and while the sinker shouldn’t allow such extreme hard contact again, expecting massive gains to sub 40% ICR levels against LHB is a stretch. This new approach is not the blueprint of an ace.

Drafting Manaea isn’t a terrible idea, though I’ll likely be doing so later than others with a ton of upside arms in the SP pool this year who I’d rather take the chance on early in the season. Be ready to drop him early if it’s clear he’ss not the same groove we saw at the end of last season.

Quick Take: Manaea’s lower arm angle led to a sparkling run to end the year that we hope can return out of the gate in 2025. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see the same peak as he’s taken out of his rhythm, making a HIPSTER with the potential for a Holly if he’s able to stabilize the sinker against LHB and keep the changeup success against RHB.

74. MacKenzie Gore (WSN, LHP)

If Gore were on a different squad, I’d be calling for him to be the breakout arm of the year. Sadly, I have to label him a HIPSTER / PEAS who has all the tools but doesn’t have the command, nor the people around him to help. Let me explain.

The four-seamer’s velocity jump to 96/97 was fantastic in the first three months before falling to 95/96 in July, and while I expect that velocity to return again, Gore’s bigger issue is his location of heaters. Against RHB, its 50% hiLoc should be closer to 60%, while it’s a scatterplot against LHB, creating fewer whiffs than expected for a pitch with elite extension and stellar shape.

The bigger issue may be Gore’s lack of support. RHB saw just 55% strikes on Gore’s changeup, while the slider and curve would appear some days and take a vacation on the next. All three secondaries are legit whiff pitches when executed and suggest an ace breakout when he has proper feel, but managers endured the pain of never knowing when they would show up.

It was worse against LHB, where not one of his secondaries eclipsed a 58% strike rate. Horrific. The slider is the one to truly reprimand as it should be a money maker against same-handed batters and I would imagine the slider piece against LHB and the slowball against RHB are the two main focuses of the off-season.

How much help will the Nationals give Gore to get there? I have my doubts about the pitching development in D.C. (save for Doolittle!) and it’s harder to anticipate growth in 2025. Throw in a team defense that ranked 26th in the majors at -22 OAA and suddenly Gore’s 4th percentile BABIP makes a bit more sense. Oh, and good luck reaching double-digit Wins with that offense.

All of this is to illuminate the uncertainty of Gore’s day-to-day performance. I traditionally rank pitchers who I can’t trust lower than what their numbers are out negatively baking in “Manager Anxiety” and I have no qualms with those who want Gore higher. I see it too. I just wish I could lean into it.

Quick Take: Gore has the stuff for a 30%+ strikeout rate, but the team context weighs him down heavily in both Wins and team defense. His day-to-day volatility is rooted in his lack of consistent secondaries, while the fastball takes a larger dent than it deserves based on its necessity to find strikes. Even with a great April I’d still be cautious to believe in a true 2025 breakout.

75. Grant Holmes (ATL, RHP)

I like The Real Estate Broker a lot. Holmes boasted three pitches with a 15%+ SwStr rate, 65%+ strike rate, and sub 40% ICR against RHB with his four-seamer spotting the edges, opening the doors for filthy sliders and curveballs. It was awesome. Small sample size of just under 70 IP, yes, but still awesome. 

There are some warning signs against LHB, though. His four-seamer’s strength is precision against RHB that is simply not there against LHB with so many wasted armside and off the plate, which isn’t the worst thing – it’s his most hittable pitch, after all – but the pitches that land inside the zone are well inside the zone. Not great.

The slider and curve make up the slack, though. Both returned absurd 70%+ Strike rates at a 24% SwStr clip, and even with his slider returning a ghastly 50%+ ICR, contact wasn’t made enough for Holmes to struggle in the small sample.

Now that Atlanta hasn’t acquired significant depth, Holmes should be the #4 starter out of camp and in a position to hold a rotation spot once Strider returns – it’s rare for something not to break after a month into the year. With a longer leash and starting every five days on a winning club, Holmes looks to be a great sleeper target for all-around production at a cheap cost.

Quick Take: The heater’s strong precision against RHB allows the elite slider and curve to take center stage without the punishment we normally see from breaker-focused arms. There may be some struggles against LHB that need a changeup or cutter to ease the blow, but Holmes should return plenty of value in all formats at his late draft price.

76. Clay Holmes (NYM, RHP)

Y’all may think this is a weird move, but I can see it. A sinkerballer like Holmes is better positioned as a starter given how dependent it is on BABIP, which normalizes over 5/6 innings better than an incredibly small sample in the ninth. In addition, it creates quicker outs than others, especially with Holmes’ high strike rates across the board. Throw in two secondaries that earn 19%+ SwStr rates against RHB and it makes sense.

But what about LHB? That’s the question. Holmes hurled tons of sinkers to LHB last year and while the raw results weren’t great (.368 BABIP), it had a sub 40% ICR and 73% groundball rate – better than I anticipated. There isn’t a secondary that fits well into his mix as of now (sweepers and sliders aren’t ideal), though I’m expecting Holmes to showcase an expanded arsenal come spring, likely including a cutter and/or changeup.

The most difficult part about projecting the RP –> SP move is their stuff expectation. Holmes sat 96/97 mph last year and will likely drop 2-3 ticks next year in order to save enough in the tank for a full outing. Does that make his sinker that much less effective? What about the slider and sweeper performance? We simply don’t know at the moment and I can see my ranking of Holmes shifting once we get a clear idea of Holmes in camp by mid-March.

Without a clear understanding of what version of Holmes we’ll see – What is he adding to the arsenal? How will an expected velocity dip affect his stuff? – I’m inclined to test the waters with different options in my drafts. That said, I’d go for it every time if I can snag Holmes in the final few rounds. Let’s get a glimpse of what we’ll see, then make a quick decision to drop or hold for another option. In deeper formats, I think Holmes is too much of a question without a massive ceiling to turn down a safer option.

Quick Take: Holmes is transitioning to the rotation and it’s tough to make out what we’ll get. Expect an expanded arsenal and lower velocity, which may coalesce into a productive starter, or a frustrating 4.00+ ERA with a high WHIP and 20% strikeout rate.

77. Kumar Rocker (TEX, RHP)

I’m conflicted y’all and I hate being conflicted. It usually means I avoid the guy, get FOMO when the season starts, doubt myself and question why I wasn’t more in on the guy, OR I get too aggressive and overvalue them based on their ceiling while they turn into a “HISPTER” before my eyes. Why are you doing this to me, Rocker?!

The discomfort is complicated. His heater sits 96/97 with 7+ feet of extension (dope!) but average HAVAA and horrible iVB that prevented it from being a whiff machine despite far better command than I expected against RHB. Speaking of which, the sinker was also pristine as it landed nearly 80% of the time inside to RHB. That’s unreal! Incredible! And maybe all a fluke of small sample. It’s very possible Rocker doesn’t have the same feel for heaters start-to-start and that scares me – not to mention his low 12% SwStr rate on his four-seamer that could be wonky or a sign of things to come. I want to say it’ll get whiffs next year, but then again, he located with absurd precision and still returned just a 20% whiff rate (that’s per swing, y’all). Hmmmm.

The other issue comes with his arsenal depth. I love his slider, that’s not the issue. It’s a legit pitch to suffocate RHB and even does what I want against LHB as a proper back-foot pitch that had many batters baited successfully for a near 30% SwStr rate…and 53% strike rate. But, the four-seamer wasn’t nearly as effective, and I’m not sure there’s another offering in the tank to help Rocker take down LHB. He certainly needs a cutter or curve or change or SOMETHING to help or that will add to the volatility.

Kumar looks to be your standard HIPSTER. We will see games of 8+ strikeouts that wow us and we’ll also see disastrous outings that pain us – unless he flexes something new in the spring, of course. He’s also battling for a rotation spot out of camp at the moment, and it’s possible Gray, Mahle, and Bradford force Rocker back to Triple-A until the inevitable opening arises. That’s a whole lot of unknown for a pitcher not going the opening weekend and despite the tantilizing ceiling of a pitcher with 96/97 mph heaters at seven feet of extension + sinkers to jam RHB + fantastic sliders, I likely have to pass. UGH. I hate this.

Quick Take: Rocker hurls 97 mph with elite extension mixed with a seemingly well spotted sinker and legit slider to demolish RHB. However, his heater suffers greatly against LHB where the slider isn’t nearly as effective, granting a clear weakness for a young arm who is sure to have his Shag Rug moments. This may be more of a headache than he’s worth, even as a late flier.

78. Bowden Francis (TOR, RHP)

Okay. I’ve spent a whole lot of time trying to decipher what the h*ck that run was in 2024. Here’s what I’ve got:

Francis shifted from his curveball to sliders against RHB nearly exclusively. He also tossed more splitters to LHB and introduced a sinker (10% of the time) to RHB.

All of that was generally better, but not really the answer. The slider was meh, the splitter was actually kinda good against RHB, and the sinker worked, but generated nine outs in that stretch. Not really the reason.

Nope. I’ve found the actual reason and I’m not entirely sure what to make of it. Francis’ four-seamer was unstoppable. It induced sub 30% ICR marks to both LHB and RHB, leading to stupid low BABIPs that are obviously unsustainable (we’re talking .103 and .109 BABIPs off four-seamers, y’all), but there’s more to it. He changed the four-seamer.

Instead of focusing on vert and velo, he became a 92/93 mph cut fastball pitcher. He located the pitch down-and-inside to LHB, who in turn lofted it into the air 67% of the time for a quarter of flyballs but just eight total hits. Eight! To his other half, Bowden kept the pitch up-and-away and also generated a ton of flyballs with only four hits allowed. That’s absolutely wild to see across nine games, especially when you remember he allowed five hits off his RHB to the Astros in his first game of the season. Oh how far he has come.

Is this something that can carry over into 2025? I’m leaning no. Sure, the extra cut action obviously helps, but it’s unwise to bank on precise command and BABIP working in your favor, especially without secondaries that do a whole lot of work as a backup plan when the four-seamer isn’t in a perfect groove. It was a wonderful run and he’s sure to have more of them. The tough schedule in April is looming and I’d be worried with Francis inside my rotation.

Quick Take: Francis’ made tweaks that surprised batters in the second half and propelled a phenomenal run down the stretch. It’s unlikely he’ll have the same run out of the gate, especially with the tough Jays schedule early in the year, and I’d be cautious about grabbing him in drafts.

79. Nick Pivetta (SDP, RHP)

Pivetta is pretty straightforward. His RHB approach is four-seamers + sweepers, while LHB see four-seamers + curves. Alex Fast asked me at the end of the year “Why do you think Pivetta’s four-seamer gets hit so much harder by RHB than LHB?” and the answer is insightful – Pivetta’s arm angle difference between fastballs and sweepers is much larger than fastballs and curveballs. In other words, it’s easier to read his four-seamer off the sweeper than the curve. And that’s a problem he needs to fix.

There is a fun solution, though – bring back the cutter we saw in 2023. With the same drop, too. Seriously, it lost two inches of drop and it may be why its SwStr rate dropped over 10 points, but hot dang, he needs to not be so black/white with such a clear read to RHB. There’s hope he can figure out this problem in San Diego and possibly return his first sub 4.00 ERA in…no. NO. Has Pivetta never had a sub 4.00 ERA in the majors?! WOW.

It may look like he’s en route to the career milestone early in the season as he pitches in HR suppressing San Diego across those spring months, though it’s sure to normalize across the summer and with Pivetta’s career 1.53 HR/9 rearing its ugly head by July and ruining your fun, especially in a park than emphasizes RHB HRs. But hey, Pivetta still gets a ton of strikeouts and will be trusted to toss 90+ pitches on a winning club. Y’all know I love saying that last line but it’s so important. That makes Pivetta a HIPSTER who will destroy your heart when those longballs show up, but may have a way to limit them a little better in the year ahead. And yes, he’ll likely spend some time on the IL, but he’s had at least 140 IP in all of his last four seasons. Don’t think about that too much.

Quick Take: If you went for ratios early, Pivetta is a great addition later for strikeouts, even if it may not be for a full 170+ frames. Expect success early until the heat of the summer sends balls over the walls, though if he figures out how to not be so two-pitch against RHB, it could be the first sub 4.00 ERA of his career.

Tier 11 – You Want To Be A Holly But You’re A Toby

These guys are generally solid volume pitchers who still have a tinge of upside to leap into the Top 50 if things break the right way.

80. Zach Eflin (BAL, RHP)

Eflin is safe. I think. Yeah, he’s safe. Eflin isn’t the man from 2023 and he’s going through the whole “Wait, my body isn’t what it was ten years ago” moment that will likely limit his total volume for the year, but the Orioles will get you Wins and he’ll continue to battle as he delicately manipulates all of his abilities to get outs. He’s your prototypical veteran who relies more on arsenal mixed with command and guile to get his outs, while we collectively hope his cutter can return to its 2023 peaks against RHB instead of the near 50% ICR of last year.

Expect Eflin to manipulate his sinker well, spin legit curveballs to both LHB and RHB, sit high with cutters, and get a little more efficient in two-strike counts against RHB because hot DANG all of his pitches completely failed on him last year in two-strike counts to RHB. Sure, he won’t be a 26% strikeout guy, but expect 22% or so with some regression.

Quick Take: Ratios should be good enough to keep Eflin on your 12-teamers all year, especially with a sizeable Win total. The strikeouts should be a touch better with his putaway rates normalizing, however he’s highly unlikely to replicate the magic of 2023. Consider Eflin as a stabilizer if you’ve taken plenty of risk or few pitchers with high Win potential.